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penzance
03 Sep 17 18:01
Joined:
Date Joined: 26 Feb 04
| Topic/replies: 12,301 | Blogger: penzance's blog
is she likely to run in the Irish Chmpn and English Champn Stks,
or both?/ or none?
   cheers.
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Report impossible123 September 3, 2017 8:15 PM BST
Four of AOB's in contention here for the Irish Champion ie Churchill, Cliffs Of Moher (CoM), Highland Reel (HR) and Winter. But with Ulysses an absentee I just cannot see AOB pitching Highland Reel against Churchill - HR can beat Churchill and that is bad for the commercial value of Churchill. Neither can I see AOB running Winter against Churchill either for the same reason. So, most likely Churchill and CoM (pacesetter again similar to the Juddmonte). I believe Churchill  can beat Eminent should the latter run her.

If Churchill wins the Irish Champion he'll most likely run in the English version at Ascot, but where Winter goes is opened to interpretation eg if she'd given a tilt in the Arc - she stayed the 10f Nassau in the soft very well - then she could go for the Fillies and Mares; very probably the QE2 Stakes or the Sun Chariot both over 8f, if not Arc bound, I believe.

I do not think Winter or HR will run against Churchill or Rhododendron in the future unless Churchill bombs here or an absentee in the English Champion. I think Rhododendron and HR will probably run in the forthcoming Breeders Cup.
Report Fashion Fever September 3, 2017 11:17 PM BST
l Opera arc day then onto breeders cup fillies and mares
Report impossible123 September 9, 2017 10:35 PM BST
Entered for the Arc with the Opera as an option but the boys will decide, according to AOB.
Report impossible123 September 18, 2017 10:39 PM BST
She is under serious consideration for the Arc, according to AOB. To me she is the only unknown to Enable of all the Irish and English horses; she is class, and like Enable goes on any ground too but preference is for good ground rather than soft (Enable).

If these 3 from AOB run in the Arc eg Winter, Highland Reel and Order Of St George AOB will have every prevailing ground condition on the day covered to mount a serious challenge to Enable and Gosden.
Report brigust1 September 19, 2017 8:40 AM BST
This is because she was beaten last time. According to AOB she missed work due to a bruised foot. Who else knew? This we were told on the day of the race. Something we must expect from this bunch of bookmaker led crooks. No, I never backed her.
Report unclepuncle September 19, 2017 9:18 AM BST
He at least told you before the race which is more than most trainers would do.
Report brigust1 September 19, 2017 9:32 AM BST
Not true Uncle. Most trainers let you know long beforehand. The only ones reported on are the better, more fancied horses of which AOB has by far the most. Many other trainers have only a very small number and in almost every case we are informed what their exact targets are, Ulysses is one recent example, Jack Hobbs is another. We are told about their preferences and who is to ride. AOB lets you know at the 48 hour stage only because he has to. Did you know Caravaggio was wearing inserts between his shoe and his hoof? He wore them at Newmarket and in France. We were only told as an excuse for failure. The list is absolutely endless and he can only tell us when the 'boys' (bookmakers) tell him. Imagine if Gosden had to refer to Hills or Laddies before deciding what to do?
Report Figgis September 19, 2017 9:46 AM BST
Gosden isn't much better in my view. Withdraws Cracksman over 10f at York on ground which, despite the description, was in fact good, then runs him over 12f on ground much softer. Enable said to be bypassing the King George, only for there to be a complete turnaround about 6 days before the race where the market told the story before we heard any statement. Cracksman said likely to miss the Arc but then runs in a race regarded as the best 3yo trial for the race and still no definitive statement if he runs or not.
Report brigust1 September 19, 2017 10:21 AM BST
That is wrong and total nonsense Figgis. I followed that closely. The ground the day before was bad and getting worse. He said there was a doubt because he didn't want to give his horse, on only his 3rd ever run and just before his biggest ever run, an unecessailly hard race. He took him out too early because the ground dried up quicker than was expected, that is true, but at no time did he mislead anyone and it was only ground conditions changing badly that brought the withdrawal. To compare that with telling everyone on the day of the race that potentially the best horse in the country has missed a weeks work do to a stone injury is a completely different ball game.
Similarly with Cracksman, long before the race they have said he is a doubtful runner. I disagree with their reasoning but they have made it abundantly clear where they stand as far as the Arc is concerned. AOB would wait until the very last minute to let you know whether or not he is a runner and even then the jockey won't be declared until the 48 hour decs. Indefensible and has been for years.
Report brigust1 September 19, 2017 10:22 AM BST
*due to
Report brigust1 September 19, 2017 10:23 AM BST
If you backed winter ante-post for either the Irish Champion Stakes or the Matron you have been robbed. If you, like me, backed Cracksman I have known all along where I stand. That is hugely different.
Report brigust1 September 19, 2017 10:27 AM BST
This is far, far, far from the first time I have come on here calling them crooks because of the way they have treated us, the punter. If they walk like crooks, talk like crooks and act like crooks, to me, they are crooks.
Report Figgis September 19, 2017 10:45 AM BST
That is wrong and total nonsense Figgis

How dare you personally insult me by calling my post total nonsense.

Whoops, was almost gripped by the current pathetic trait of finding offence in everything for a momentMischief

He said there was a doubt because he didn't want to give his horse, on only his 3rd ever run and just before his biggest ever run, an unecessailly hard race

If a horse handles cut in the ground as well as Cracksman clearly does, he showed it on debut as well as in the Voltigeur, why would he have a hard race?

He took him out too early because the ground dried up quicker than was expected

He withdrew him on the day of the race. Doesn't really say much for walking the track and stick poking does it?

Similarly with Cracksman, long before the race they have said he is a doubtful runner

Why doubtful? If they don't know now when will they know?
Report brigust1 September 19, 2017 11:36 AM BST
I didn't call you an idiot, or a fool etc Figgis I just criticised what you wrote not you personally. Wink
Report brigust1 September 19, 2017 11:42 AM BST
Why do I have to explain the obvious to someone who is clearly not an idiot? I have made my views absolutely clear, even to the owner himself. He may be misguided and wrong or he may be well informed and right. I don't know the answer to either question but what I do know is that he has kept us in the picture for a long time.
AOB and his cronies would leave it until the 48 hour decs then tell us he has been out in a field for a month and won't be ready.
Report brigust1 September 19, 2017 11:43 AM BST
And punters would have been piling in for weeks at 5s and 6s.
Report brigust1 September 19, 2017 11:49 AM BST
He said: "The Arc is definitely something we're thinking about for Winter. I'm not saying it's definite she'll run in it but it's certainly possible and under strong consideration".

He added: "She needed to run at Leopardstown that weekend so she would have a chance of running at Chantilly. She missed seven or eight days after Goodwood. When you miss time at that stage of the season, it can set you back. To be honest, I was delighted with the way she ran at Leopardstown and she'll come on for that.

Who else knew? Just the crooks! Who else knows where she is going to run next and who will know first? Just the crooks!
Report Figgis September 19, 2017 12:01 PM BST
Why do I have to explain the obvious to someone who is clearly not an idiot? I have made my views absolutely clear

Exactly, all they are is your views, just like your views on Coolmore. Well some people are also pissed off with Gosden's constant arsing around, whether you are or not.
Report brigust1 September 19, 2017 12:50 PM BST
That is right and your views on Gosden are your views, Figgis. The difference is AOB did not tell you what was happening with Winter, and this is one case in many, many cases whereas JG and owner have consistently told you what is happening with Cracksman. As a punter I know which I prefer. And I will not be an apologist for AOB. You do that job perfectly well.
Report Figgis September 19, 2017 1:42 PM BST
what is happening with Cracksman

So what is happening with Cracksman?
Report unclepuncle September 19, 2017 1:47 PM BST
Nobody was 'robbed' by Winters eventual target or run at Leopardstown. Firstly anyone playing antepost knows the risks. You can't have it every which way - still want the juicy ante-post price but then moan when a horse doesn't run or isn't 100%.

He told people the day before the Matron that Winter probably wasn't quite 100%. He even suggested Hydraenga, who won, was in a similar position. He didn't have to say anything, before or after so I don't see what the beef is.

As with Mullins and his Cheltenham plans it seems O'Brien/Coolmore are damned either way by some people.

Of course Coolmore will know first where one of their horses is going to run - how can it be any other way. Until final declaration time there is no need for them to divulge anything. To call them crooks is really rather silly.

Winter still has at least 6 realistic options this season - two options at Chantilly, at least two on Champions Day at Ascot and probably two at the Breeders Cup. Anyone backing her antepost for one or two specific races is doing so at their own risk.
Report brigust1 September 19, 2017 3:44 PM BST
Sorry Uncle I completely disagree. Do you honestly believe that knowing Winter had had a hold-up and missed 7 or 8 days work and that 'she may need the race ' or 'would come on for the race' (comments he made on the day) wouldn't affect your ante-post betting? And do you honestly believe that someone laying Winter ante-post couldn't benefit from this knowledge in the run-up to whichever race she was going to run in? Do you believe that?
AOB knew for 4 weeks that Winter had missed her work yet he said nothing until the day before the race. There was plenty of comment and speculation about her target in Ireland but never a mention of her injury. He is forever building his horses up when he can but that is withholding important information about one of the best horses in the country. What you have to do is ask yourself why? And this is far from an isolated incident.
I have no problem with her being entered in as many races as they like. I have no problem with them setting preferences because I know things can change. But I do want to know that she is turning up in top form and ready to run her race.
And the same with Mullins. If the horse has several potential targets at Cheltenham so what? As long as it doesn't run below form and he then comes on and says it has missed work and would come on for the race.
Report unclepuncle September 19, 2017 5:16 PM BST
But if he'd said something weeks in advance and then she drifts right out but goes and wins you would be claiming you had been put away by 'the Boys'.Cry

And why should Coolmore give a flying **** about anyone's antepost betting?Confused
Report impossible123 September 19, 2017 6:57 PM BST
It was indeed very naughty and non-punter friendly of AOB not to disclose the bruised foot of Winter until the day of the Matron race but the betting days prior clearly showed something was amiss with her - she drifted like a barge out to odds against despite antepost had her at 2/5 originally.

My prediction post the demise of Churchill in the Irish Champion is he'd be rerouted to the QE2 Stakes at Ascot to do battle with Ribchester/Barney Roy with Winter deputising in the Champion Stakes. Also, it is more than likely Winter will run in the Arc prior - nothing to lose - given the dominance of Enable there.

Mullins and Ricci are already at it (again) so early in the season with Faugheen. Mullins: "Faugheen is back in full training...the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown in November would be the aim. He is fit and well, he was unlucky last year."

Faugheen had had a stress fracture last season and missed every intended target; he was also unable to sustain the usual race fit training programme which probably was responsible for his no show last season. I think he'd be more likely to be retired either prior or post the Morgiana, and I'll only believe it when I see him on a racecourse (again).
Report unclepuncle September 19, 2017 7:42 PM BST
So stop moaning about it and use your insight (if you actually believe it) and lump on BVD and/or DDS for the Champion Hurdle while their prices are being held up by Faugheen - simples.
Report brigust1 September 20, 2017 9:13 AM BST
Just to give you a bit of a rundown on Winter approaching the Matron/Champion Stakes.

On Sept 3rd AOB said 'Winter was also in consideration for the Champion Stakes. She also has the option of the Matron. She is in good form and there are plenty of options for her'.  No mention that she has just returned to work following a bruised foot. Six days before the race.

On Sept 5th. Headlines plus photo.  'Champion bid 'very possible' for Winter as O'Brien weighs options'. When asked for an update before the forfeit stage O'Brien said ' Winter is in both the Irish Champion and the Matron and a decision will be made later this week'. 'It's very possible she could run in the Irish Champion Stakes but not decided yet'. No mention of missed work or she may need the run. FOUR days before the race.

On Sept 7th. Headlines plus photo  'OOH! Matron the target for Winter'. After O'Brien had stated that it was 'very possible Winter could run in the Irish Champion Stakes but not decided as yet'. However it now appears Winter will be competing against her own sex. O'Brien said last night, the day before declarations 'At the moment it looks like our Matron team will be made up of Winter, Rhododendron, Roly Poly and Hydrangea'. Still no mention of needing the race, coming on for the race or a bruised foot. Two days before the race.

On Sept 9th, raceday. Headlines. Winter has missed some time and will come forward' says O'Brien. 'Winter missed some time after Goodwood. She had a bruised foot and we had to give her seven or eight easy days to let it settle down'. 'I am happy with her but we do think she will come forward for this run'.

No indication of when the bruised foot happened or when the missed work occurred. If it had been a week after Goodwood which is very likely as she would have had an easy time anyway after the race means she had only been in work for a couple of weeks at most and stronger work for a week. Every comment made assured you she was in good form and the only decision, which appeared to sway toward the Irish Champion Stakes, was choice of race. If AOB wasn't asked how she was he need not tell us but, as, usual, when asked he is less than forthcoming with the truth.  And this example is far, far, far from a one-off. And when you consider this stable is owned by big gamblers and bookmakers it is easy to see why.
Report impossible123 September 20, 2017 9:08 PM BST
If she could not beat her own sex in the Matron Stakes she would be very unlikely to have beaten the colts in the Irish Champion...horsey sabre-rattling and red herring on AOB's part, I believe.
Report impossible123 September 22, 2017 6:16 PM BST
I think a bit of mind game is in progress with the prices of Winter and Highland Reel for the Arc. The forecast for Chantilly racecourse is for dry weather from next tuesday onward right through to saturday and sunday with less than 10m of precipitation expected; both these horses are suited by good or good to firm ground yet their prices here have drifted so close to the race and friendly weather forecast. I think Moore will face a tough choice between these two AOB inmates.
Report Millerracing67 September 22, 2017 7:40 PM BST
I'd be surprised if Winter runs in the Arc?? Surely, granted gd/ish ground, the Opera is the race for her, then onto Champions Day for the QE2 or the Champion?
Don't view her as a 12f filly myself.
Report impossible123 September 22, 2017 7:49 PM BST
The Opera (Rhododendron, if fit) is insignificant compares to the Arc, and I think Winter will run as a fact find for next year's Arc (eg Found) - nothing to lose if she does not stay. Then she could (will) go for the Champion Stakes with Churchill (not good enough to win) contesting the QE2 to redeem his tattered reputation - connections will not run these two horses in the same race, I believe.
Report Millerracing67 September 22, 2017 7:57 PM BST
Think Rhododendron is ground dependant myself, she wants it fast, & she seems to have had a few probs?
Can't  have Winter at 12f, esp if it comes up soft.
Report impossible123 September 22, 2017 10:10 PM BST
I think Winter is unlikely to run if it comes up soft despite her victory in the Nassau on such ground - AOB has OoSG should such condition prevail; AOB has nominated the Opera for Hydrangea post her Matron win; Rhododendron a 10f race in the Breeders Cup (8/1 F&M turf), the same race that Seventh Heaven failed so miserably in last year.
Report Millerracing67 September 23, 2017 3:15 PM BST
No surprise if Rhododendron is aimed at the BC F&Ms. She wants fast ground imo, & can run on Meds.
Report impossible123 September 24, 2017 8:43 PM BST
Winter (W) is one of 7 (yes 7) of AOB's possibles, the others are Highland Reel (HR), Order Of St George (OoSG), Seventh Heaven (SH), Capri (C), Idaho (I) and Cliffs of Moher (CoM), according to AOB this afternoon. But I think Capri is unlikely (hard St Leger and good/firmish ground); SH is also unlikely due to lacklustre 1st run post injury; CoM (deemed not staying Derby trip/campaigned over 10f since then).

The probable good/good to firm going is ideal for Winter and HR but against OoSG (could still run otherwise Melbourne Cup) and possibly Idaho who I believe will either run on Champions Day at Ascot or Breeders Cup. So, at most 4 from AOB on the day.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 25, 2017 8:25 AM BST
I can't see good/firm going on Arc day. It was very tacky a couple of weeks ago for the trials and that has to dry. It's had rain on it since, and there are 3 days this week where precipitation is over 50%. There have been a few sunny, dry days, and possibly 3 more this week, but light rain is forcast today, and more importantly towards the end of the week/weekend. I suspect the ground will be good to soft at best.

http://www.myweather2.com/Horse-Racing/France/Chantilly.aspx?sday=6

https://www.accuweather.com/en/fr/chantilly/136099/daily-weather-forecast/136099?day=6
Report impossible123 September 25, 2017 9:37 AM BST
I believe it has been mainly dry since the trials, and precipitation forecast between now and race day is about 10mm in total, an insignificant amount if true.
Report brigust1 September 25, 2017 10:08 AM BST
The going won't bother Enable Andrew it is just how much it inconveniences the opposition. Chantilly is well drained with a stiff uphill finish so let's hope it provides a level playing field. I think it would be great to see Winter run, what have they got to lose? And Highland Reel will be a fresh horse having not run since the KG he wants good ground at worst. And I guess the Japanese horse will be better o faster going. I don't think anything can beat her but at least we may see a good race with all having a chance to show their best.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 25, 2017 10:55 AM BST
Correct Laurie, Enable has won several times where good or firm is in the going description, so it will not be an issue for her. I'm not sure Winter wants 12f and personally think she will run in the L'Opera or saved for another day. Likewise I can't see anything to beat her, except herself (as mentioned in my Arc post) in fact with Cracksman out and probable good to soft going, I feel reasonably confident. If it did turn soft, then I can see her being 4/6 on the day.
Report Sandown September 25, 2017 1:24 PM BST
If it did turn soft, then I can see her being 4/6 on the day

First of all, the weather forecast does not indicate a lot of rain. Secondly, the French always open a fresh strip by the rail. Thirdly, it nearly always rides faster using times than the given going description.

As to price, the current market already is priced up so short on Enable that it bears no resemblance to previous performance.On my scale, the market implies that Ulysses is -13 lbs behind Enable, Brametot -18, OOSG -20, DS -23 HR -23 Capri -24 COS -24 Zarak -24 Winter -24. For Enable to go to 4/6 there would have to be more than just a few non-runners.If you think, Andrew, that Enable is a good price, then you are building in a huge amount for further RELATIVE improvement.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 25, 2017 4:31 PM BST
Hi Sandown,

Not a lot of rain, but enough rain nevertheless, and most of it at the weekend.

Enable doesn't need soft anyway, but it would hinder chances of some of her rivals.

Irrespective of this, let's look at the overall picture.

Enable is an exceptional filly and clearly the form horse (based on a strict interpretation).
The Arc has been favouring 3 year olds for many years now (17 from last 23)
5 filles (or mares) in the last 9 years
The filly and WFA allowance is a big advantage at this time of year
Ground and trip not an issue, even the pace may not be an issue if it's sensible
Lightly raced overall and could still improve
There are question marks on most of her main rivals

I didn't say she was a good price at 4/6, i stated if it was soft, that what I expected her price to be. She's actually 4/5 or 8/11 with most high street bookmakers today anyway. Betfair is an exception and probably nearer the true odds. In my opinion anything odds against is a good price.

As I stated on the Arc thread, she's not a certainty, or even close, but to me she's the winner and i've thought that since the KG.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 25, 2017 4:46 PM BST
Sandown, put it another way. If you were a bookie, how would you price her up ?
Report impossible123 September 25, 2017 5:24 PM BST
Unless the forecast is inaccurate the precipitation expected barely touches 5mm between now and race day with most ie 2.4mm falling on thursday.

Personally, I believe Enable would have a better chance of winning on soft going as that will hinder the majority of her principal dangers eg HR, SD, Ulysses, Winter and Cloth Of Stars, but OoSG, Brametot and Zarak are no pushovers by any means especially the former.

If the ground is on the fast side of good the present odds-on price is pitifully short (bookies taking the micky) and I firmly believe the PMU could return odds against; HR was 6/4 (prior to the confirmation of Enable running) for the KG until the heavens opened with a vengeance a few days prior to race. Ulysses ran out off puff in the soft in the KG and preferred good ground similarly HR thus I'd not accept the KG form as solid or gospel; Enable is a very good filly but has yet to prove herself against established Gp1 winners/credentials eg HR and OoSG; her beating of Rhododendron, Rain Goddess, Alluring and Coronet certainly does not warrant a price of 4/5, to say the least.

I'd backed her at 9/4 in singles/doubles/trebles, and would like her to win nevertheless, on value alone, had laid off the majority at present odds; she is far too short!!
Report Sandown September 25, 2017 5:47 PM BST
Sandown, put it another way. If you were a bookie, how would you price her up ?

If I were a bookie Andrew, I'd be happy to lay her at the price on offer.Cool

If I was a backer, then I'm looking for maybe 5/2 or biggerGrin
Report Sandown September 25, 2017 5:48 PM BST
The various weather channels are not agreeing with some saying no rain expected and one forecasting rain at the end of the week. Confusing.
Report Sandown September 25, 2017 6:21 PM BST
Andrew in Sweden

Enable is an exceptional filly and clearly the form horse (based on a strict interpretation).
The only part I'd disagree with is the "exceptional" bit. That is still to be proved.

The Arc has been favouring 3 year olds for many years now (17 from last 23)

That is true, due to weights and rate of improvement at that age

5 filles (or mares) in the last 9 years
Taken over the whole of the post was period and even the past 25 years, there is no statistical edge for F&M. Sorry.

The filly and WFA allowance is a big advantage at this time of year
As above


Ground and trip not an issue, even the pace may not be an issue if it's sensible
Agreed

Lightly raced overall and could still improve
Agreed, but so could others.She could also regress.


There are question marks on most of her main rivals
Indeed there are, but having won 22 GI's between them, any could run big on the day


As I have tried to explain at various times, it is all about price, not just win chance.I can let the horse go, let the race go if need be, but backing horses at a false price is not for me. Then the debate shifts to what are the various chances and here objectivity has to be the basis for a rational assessment. Over the years, this kind of situation occurs multiple times so we have records that we can analyse.Judgement then of course plays its part. Anyway, good luck with your bet. As you say, it won't be life changing either way.
Report impossible123 September 25, 2017 6:34 PM BST
To be absolutely frank Aiden O'Brien has as much chance of winning the Arc as Enable especially on good ground, is AOB odds-on for this?
Report Andrew in Sweden September 25, 2017 7:09 PM BST
Sandown, thanks for the constructuve response and good luck whatever you play.

Impossible123, forecasting the weather 6 days in advance is akin to looking for sh*t in a cuckoo clock, but looking at various websites, the amount of rain expected to fall ranges from 0 to 30mm on the Sunday alone (see the link below). As I stated on another post, i've seen about 80% of the Arcs since Detroit won in 1980 and firm is rarely in the going description.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/fr/weather/picardie/chantilly

In any event AOB is keeping more of an eye on the weather than JG Wink
Report 1st time poster September 25, 2017 8:31 PM BST
how many you been to at Chantilly, Wink
Report Andrew in Sweden September 25, 2017 8:50 PM BST
0, all at Longchamp, but after this weekend 1, and almost certainly the last Wink
Report Andrew in Sweden September 26, 2017 4:49 PM BST
Michael Bell is anxiously watching the weather at Chantilly ahead of Big Orange's proposed run in the Prix du Cadran on Saturday.

The six-year-old missed an intended outing in the Irish St Leger earlier this month because of the prospect of testing ground.

With conditions already described as soft in France and more rain forecast, the Gold Cup winner may be forced to miss another Group One outing.

"We're doing a weather watch," said Bell.

"A decision will be made later in the week whether he goes or not. We hope to run and then go to Ascot on Champions Day."
Report impossible123 September 26, 2017 5:29 PM BST
The latest weather forecast for Chantilly is indicating no precipitation until saturday (10mm) between 3am and 3pm but sunday is clear and sunny between 9am and 6pm. The ground is soft at the moment, I believe, and with clear sky till saturday this could change to good/good to soft; come race day with sunny weather the ground could be similar - here's hoping. If so, good fair racing weather for all including Satono Diamond and Highland Reel.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 26, 2017 7:29 PM BST
I very much doubt Highland Reel will run, the ground will be considered too soft. I also have doubts about COM and Winter running, and Ryan will be on OOSG.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 27, 2017 4:45 PM BST
Limato scratched from the Prix De La Foret due to expected soft ground.
Report impossible123 September 27, 2017 5:24 PM BST
No surprise there concerning Limato.

If the ground has a description of soft in it I'd agree the chance of a victory for Highland Reel is extremely slim - he might
not even run. Similarly, of CoM running as he seemed to run out of puff in the Derby and had been campaigned over 10f since then. Also CoM is more of a good ground horse. Capri would like the easier ground but he'd had a hard race just two weeks ago in the Leger, I firmly believe.

I still believe Winter will run in the Arc instead of the Opera as AOB has many credible bullets there eg Hydrangea, Rhododendron and possibly Rain Goddess too.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 28, 2017 10:27 AM BST
Highland Reel and COM out
Report impossible123 September 28, 2017 11:04 AM BST
Wow, Moore has elected to ride Winter over OoSG despite the impending good to soft ground, but Highland Reel and CoM are out -
interesting choice or one to regret but very game from connections of Winter to take on Enable on her 1st attempt over 12f and in the Arc? The ground would suit OoSG better than Winter, and stamina a concern for Winter too? Maybe not.
Report unclepuncle September 28, 2017 12:51 PM BST
Winters participation certainly makes the race vastly more interesting.

Obvious parallels with Found who stepped up to 1m4f for the first time when running in it at Longchamp as a 3 year old, and should have been at least placed but for Moore doing his usual job of finding all the trouble going.

Given that Found and Moore won it last year at Chantilly maybe the fact that the race reverts back to Longchamp next year has given them the incentive to try with her this year.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 28, 2017 1:04 PM BST
I’m not surprised that HR and COM were withdrawn, but I didn’t think Winter would run (maybe the L’Opera) and the fact RM is riding her adds another dimension to the race.

Maybe AOB/RM feel the filly has a better chance of winning than OOSG who had a hard slog only 2 weeks ago, additionally she has more room for improvement, goes on soft and has a turn a foot, but will 12f in soft be too much.

On a strict line through Rhododendron, Enable has the beating of Winter, although not by much, but she has improved since. All in all it makes for a better race, but I still maintain Enable must take all the beating.
Report impossible123 September 28, 2017 7:29 PM BST
Without a shadow of a doubt Enable is the rightful fav for the Arc because she has the best form, the distance and going to suit and improving. Nevertheless I think it is inappropriate to use Rhododendron as a guide as Rhododendron did not stay 12f despite going the better against Enable at the 1.5f marker in the Oaks. Also, I firmly believe Winter and/or Rhododendron will beat Enable over 10f should they meet in the Champion Stakes at Ascot later next month, all things being equal.

I also hope Cracksman shows up too to prove he is a very good horse, but I doubt it very much.
Report Jack Bauer '24' September 28, 2017 8:03 PM BST
Rhododendron did stay in my view and would have been a quite impressive winner without Enable in the race. She was outstayed by stronger staying filly who is one of the best Oaks winners any of us have seen.

Rhododendron may or may not be better over 10 furlongs but she stays 12 furlongs well enough to win a top class fillies' race.
Report Jack Bauer '24' September 28, 2017 8:22 PM BST
She did the same to Ulysses at Ascot who also stays 12 furlongs well enough to win a top class race. Enable can maintain a gallop over 12 furlongs that most other horses can't.
Report impossible123 September 28, 2017 9:55 PM BST
I beg to disagree.

Rhododendron will not be seen running over 12f in a Gp 1 race in the future hence her entry in the Fillies and Mare Turf (10.5f) in the Breeders Cup at Del Mar. Enable beat nothing of significance in the Oaks except Rhododendron; the 3rd, 4th and 5th ie Alluringly, Horseplay and Coronet had done nothing and well beaten since.

Ulysses was going as well as Enable 2f out in the King George (good to soft) but was comprehensively outstayed by Enable, but ran away from Churchill and Barney Roy in the Juddmonte (12f, good to soft again); he led but outstayed by Highland Reel in the PoW and just held on in a Gp 3 race.
Report Jack Bauer '24' September 28, 2017 10:29 PM BST
Coronet won the Ribblesdale on her next start and also finished second to Enable in the Yorkshire Oaks. I hope she is given the chance to prove you wrong over 12 furlongs at some time in the future and I'm pretty sure Ulysses will prove you wrong soon enough, hopefully in the BC Turf or maybe even the Arc.

His highly experienced trainer thinks he stays and I agree with him, and I'd be fairly certain he knows a little bit more than you do.
Report impossible123 September 28, 2017 10:41 PM BST
I believe Stoute had reservation about the Arc for Ulysses immediately post his Juddmonte win and was reticent to commit when interviewed; he was also comprehensively beaten by Highland Reel in last year's Breeders Cup Turf. I firmly believe  he is a better horse over 10f against the likes of Churchill and Barney Roy especially on easier surface; he is the one to beat in the Champion Stakes on 21st Oct if the ground is good to soft/soft, but his main target is the Breeders Cup on 4th November.
Report Jack Bauer '24' September 28, 2017 11:07 PM BST
I think some punters are being fooled by the fact that he travels so well in his races. Some horses do most of their running on the bridle and others need to be ridden along earlier and find plenty for pressure. The problem with Ulysses is that he has such a high cruising speed but he lacks that extra gear that only the very best have like Frankel or possibly Enable.

If he had that extra gear when he is asked for his effort off the bridle he would be special. Like Rhododendron, he may well be better over 10 furlongs but that does not mean he doesn't stay 12, and would not be capable of winning top class races over that distance. It's just a question of whether there is a stronger stayer in the field that may just find enough to outstay him.

If Enable had not run at Ascot, Ulysses would not have had to try and run her down and the jockey could have held on to him for longer before asking him for his burst and I think he would have been an impressive winner. Had that been the case would you still be saying he doesn't stay 12 furlongs?
Report ReaseHeath September 28, 2017 11:42 PM BST

Sep 28, 2017 -- 3:55PM, impossible123 wrote:


I beg to disagree. Rhododendron will not be seen running over 12f in a Gp 1 race in the future hence her entry in the Fillies and Mare Turf (10.5f) in the Breeders Cup at Del Mar. Enable beat nothing of significance in the Oaks except Rhododendron; the 3rd, 4th and 5th ie Alluringly, Horseplay and Coronet had done nothing and well beaten since. Ulysses was going as well as Enable 2f out in the King George (good to soft) but was comprehensively outstayed by Enable, but ran away from Churchill and Barney Roy in the Juddmonte (12f, good to soft again); he led but outstayed by Highland Reel in the PoW and just held on in a Gp 3 race.


A big statement about Rhododendron that totally ignores the fact that she also holds an entry in the Fillies and Mares Stakes over 12f on Champions Day.Depending on the events of the weekend I would n't discount her running in that either if she runs well in the Opera and the outcome of the Arc means it's likely Enable and Winter swerve that race on Champions Day.

One of the attractions of the Breeders Cup race for Rhododendron is presumably that they can run her on medication given that she bled the last time she went to France.

Do you actually look at the entries or do you just regurgitate what you've read in the media?

Report FOYLESWAR September 29, 2017 7:38 AM BST
stoute is a master with  late maturing types and ulysess has continued his  progression all season ,true he has ground to make up with enable on king george form but he may have improved enough to turn the form around with her , one is around even money and the other is 10/1 or better on here , at the prices i am with the stoute horse .
Report brigust1 September 29, 2017 7:59 AM BST
If that is how you look at things Foyles then Idaho, who nearly ran down Ulysses in the KG and has a stiffer and longer straight in his favour this time, is 44s on here.
They are expecting a moderate to heavy shower on the racecourse tonight.
Report impossible123 October 1, 2017 8:51 PM BST
The Champion Stakes at Ascot has been nominated for Winter by AOB, but no Ulysses - he is heading to the Breeders Cup Turf. If so, where will Churchill run? Extremely unlikely in the same race as Winter thus the most likely would be the QE2 Stakes against Ribchester or Barney Roy and Al Wukair.
Report impossible123 October 17, 2017 7:43 PM BST
AOB has just stated Winter is off colour post the Arc and plans are on hold at the present moment.
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