Enable,...is the Arc her's to lose?

just wonder if she left behind in the Yorkshire oaks

she's been asked a lot of questions this year

deffo a layer at the price

utterly pointless thread

I think we need to discuss whether the King George was run at a good pace or turned into a sprint.

also does Ulysses stay 12f?

Apology for using an unnecessary and incorrect apostrophe for (her) - it should have been hers instead of her's.

I have reported this thread to Betfair.

I think Enable is a definite lay at evens or odds-on unless the horses outside the UK and Ireland are much of a muchness post the forthcoming trials in France; Ulysses, despite beating Barney Roy 2x (clearly stamina was over stretched) and Churchill comprehensively, was himself easily beaten by Highland Reel on good/firm ground in the PoW (10f) and Enable on soft in the King George (12f) thus, I think, could be discounted for this race too, all things being equal; Cracksman, a more likely runner if Enable does not (I think) is not one for me either even if he's improving and despite beating Venice Beach convincingly in his last race, if he runs and Enable does not.

Brametot and Satono Diamond will need to win their respective trial in France over the next two weeks to be formidable challengers to Enable (I hope they do) otherwise Enable could start odds-on and this race is hers to lose unless she's had one race too many already.

Total contradiction in one post. above......

Sep 2, 2017 -- 3:47PM, impossible123 wrote:

I think Enable is a definite lay at evens or odds-on unless the horses outside the UK and Ireland are much of a muchness post the forthcoming trials in France; Ulysses, despite beating Barney Roy 2x (clearly stamina was over stretched) and Churchill comprehensively, was himself easily beaten by Highland Reel on good/firm ground in the PoW (10f) and Enable on soft in the King George (12f) thus, I think, could be discounted for this race too, all things being equal; Cracksman, a more likely runner if Enable does not (I think) is not one for me either even if he's improving and despite beating Venice Beach convincingly in his last race, if he runs and Enable does not.Brametot and Satono Diamond will need to win their respective trial in France over the next two weeks to be formidable challengers to Enable (I hope they do) otherwise Enable could start odds-on and this race is hers to lose unless she's had one race too many already.

i agree completely.

I wouldn't back Enable at anything lower than 5/1

Enable could win the Arc. If she doesn't another horse will.

I think Enable is a definite lay at evens or odds-on

Enable could start odds-on and this race is hers to lose

Covering both the options to be on the safe side

Andrew, you seemed picky and possibly sensitive to posters airing an opinion not conducive to your own. Why is my opinion not plausible?

At the moment Enable is odds-on/evens priced according to his chances against his counterparts here and in Ireland, and prior to the trials in France. Who could say he'd not be shorter post the trials if Satono Diamond and Cracksman fail to impress? If so, I'd not lay him at the present price, but I'd definitely if Satono Diamond (not Cracksman) is impressive and proved a formidable challenger for the Arc; I do not think Cracksman and Ulysses are, but Highland Reel (HR) and Order Of St George (OoSG) given their ideal ground eg good/firm for the former (this could not be an advantage to Enable) or soft for OoSG as both stay the distance well and proven; Winter could come into contention on good ground, if connections give the green light - Found won last year.

If Satono Diamond fails to impress and the ground on race day is soft Enable will have an excellent chance of winning esp if OoSg does not turn up unless Enable has had one race too many - what is wrong with this analogy?

I believe, apart from Enable and possibly Satono Diamond, this year's probable participants are not as talented as last year's.

On the contrary impossible123, the forum is all about opinions and i have no problem with sensible and constructive posts (and posters). Brigust and I go back several years, each with opposing opinions on Frankel, but respect each others view and remain friends.

I simply picked up on the fact that you had stated opposing scenarios 'Enable is a lay' and 'this race is hers to lose' (within the same post) or 'her present price of even money is reflecting her superior form and chance for the race' in your opening post. As I stated, you are covering all options, but there  was also a wink after my post. You need to chill.

Andrew, sorry if I miss interpreted your post.

To me Enable is a lay at present price if Satono Diamond wins impressively otherwise no, and this race could be hers to lose unless she's had one race too many eg Yorkshire Oaks, an unnecessary outing, in my opinion. If she brings her A game to Chantilly and Satono Diamond bombs in his trial then she'd win unless either Highland Reel (HR) and/or Order Of St George (OoSG) gets their ground. But I cannot see Cracksman and/or Ulysses (stamina) good enough to beat HR or OoSG or Enable.

No worries, be lucky

STOP DIGGING!!!

The most convincingly winner of the trials in France ie Cracksman is a doubtful runner, and Satono Diamond (then 2nd fav) could only finish 5th of 6. Was it race rustiness being his 1st race since April and only just infront of his pacesetter stablemate? His jockey did appear to be looking after him though.

AOB has today confirmed the Arc is the main and preferred target for last year's 2nd and 3rd Highland Reel (HR) and Order Of St George (OoSG) respectively, the former will ensure Enable does not have it her own way given good/firm going whilst the latter soft/heavy going. Either, I think, could usurp her giving their ideal ground condition if ridden up with the pace similar to last year.

Satono Diamond has yet to be proven on a European racecourse and could have been inconvenienced by the soft going last time; Brametot possibly nursing an impediment the way he ran in his last race and participation is uncertain. I do not think Ulysses is a 12f Gp 1 horse; the German horse Dschingis Secret has had his day of glory in the Prix Foy; the only dark horse is Winter, if she's pitched up here - AOB ran 3 last year.

Competition to Enable seems to be increasing by the day. Yesterday was a statement by AOB that Winter was seriously being considered for the Arc. Today, Zarak impressed in his workout at Chantilly's Les Aigles round gallop, and Brametot at Deauville race course gallop.

Winter is not a definite and you can take what AOB says with a pinch of salt. Personally I feel she won't run, but i'm not concerned if she does or not anyway. All 3 are available to back at 16s in the high street and higher on here for the French colts, so any workouts couldn't have been anything out of the ordinary, irrespective of RP reports. Zarak is average anyway and never won in 4 races at Chantilly, so maybe the track doesn't suit. Bramelot is better and I feel he could take a minor place, but Enable will be very difficult to beat, and if I can get evens or better closer to the day, it will be a good price, I think she will be odds on with the PMU. I'm off to UK on Thursday and Paris the following evening for the 2 days, so hopefully i can get a price before. I've backed her at 3.6 on here, but not with a significant amount.

Enable is evens with Sky*** (nrnb). If Winter had been with AOB the season before she joined him she'd have been aimed at the Epsom Oaks instead of Rhododendron similar to Minding. Also, I think Winter will run in the Arc after her performance in the Nassau (10f) on soft ground - I think she'll more likely stay 12f; she is the class filly with pedigree and honours to equal and/or better Enable.

I think Zarak has improved since being upped in distance. I also think Brametot could be another thorn (along with Winter) to Enable; he beat Waldgeist (just behind Cracksman in the Irish Derby) - after giving him a head start.

Good luck with Enable, and enjoy the Arc weekend.

If Winter had been with AOB the season before she joined him she'd have been aimed at the Epsom Oaks instead of Rhododendron similar to Minding.

Utter nonsense. She was not aimed at the Oaks because like Churchill she comes from a sprinting family and Rhododendron was their Oaks filly as she is more stoutly bred. A top form Enable would easily outstay Winter over 12 furlongs in my view, just as she did Rhododendron in the Oaks.

Utter nonsense,...how very definitive!

Using the Dosage Index as a (guide) it tells a different story. Winter would stay even better than Minding who AOB clearly thought would not stay a truly run Gp 1 12f race hence she was campaigned mainly over 8f and 10f despite easily winning the Nassau Stakes; her Epsom Oaks victory was made to look better as it was over significantly inferior opponents.

Also, Rhododendron was on near empty 1.5f out in the Epsom Oaks (12f)  despite going the easier of the two against Enable; she then contested the French Oaks (10f) where she bled; even if she had not she'd not have contested the Irish Oaks against Rhododendron.

On the other hand Winter, after winning the Nassau against older fillies on soft ground, AOB was quick to suggest she'd go further than 10f hence the serious consideration for the Arc despite having Highland Reel, OoSG,  and Seventh Heaven and others; Minding was not even seriously considered for the Arc despite winning the Nassau against her own age except one.

The Dosage Index suggests Winter has the best credential/chance of staying 12f in a truly run Gp 1 race than Minding and/or Rhododendron. But of course, this must not be taken as fact/gospel and neither should anyone else's opinions!!!!!!!!

I have no interest in DI as I've told you before it is massively flawed. Are you seriously suggesting that after winning the Guineas, Winter was not aimed at the Oaks because she was trained by a different trainer the previous season and not because they did not consider her to be a middle distance filly?

No, I was not suggesting that. What I was suggesting was if AOB had Winter earlier and not at close of season when her then trainer announced his retirement I believe AOB would have known he'd have another filly capable of running in the Oaks after winning both 1000G races - Minding did - and not only Rhododendron. Even Ballydoyle was an intended runner in the Epsom Oaks until the weather interfered (soft ground the reason AOB intimated).

However, for AOB to suggest immediately in the post Nassau victory interview of Winter she could go up in trip was telling, to say the least, unlike Minding who despite winning the Epsom Oaks after Moore tried his best to lose it the Arc or any other 12f race was never suggested and/or indicated in her future racing plan; Minding did not run in the Fillies and Mares at Ascot either but instead in the Champion Stakes.

But like always horse racing is mainly about opinions, and my is...Winter will run in the Arc prior to a tilt in the Champion Stakes (10f) at Ascot later because Churchill is not good enough to win any Gp1 race over 10f, I believe.

She did not run in the Oaks because she was not considered to be a 12 furlong filly at the time, whether AOB had trained her earlier or not would have made no difference, he already knows all he needs to know.

I still don't believe they truly consider her to be a 12 furlong filly but they don't have much to lose by running her in the Arc and hoping she does stay well enough to win as there is a short priced favourite and their other runners are all double figure prices, so they might as well fire as many bullets as possible and hope for the best, as they did in the Derby.

Think this is a great race to bet on .. those betting on fave now need there head testing... main imponderables

1) Chantilly
2) too many runs this season
3) Frankie
4) French runners

Think he will be out to 2/1 if not bigger on the day...

Think AOB horses will set a ridiculous pace and will set it up for another result

I fancy ULYSSES he does deserve a lot more respect as Crowley has ridden this horse really well on last 2 runs, he was riding his own race last time and judged the pace so well... despite the front 2 scrapping all the way past the furlong mark... but he oozed through...

I think AOB horses setting false pace will set the race up for him.

Think this is a great race to bet on .. those betting on fave now need there head testing... main imponderables

1) Chantilly
2) too many runs this season
3) Frankie
4) French runners

Think he will be out to 2/1 if not bigger on the day

(1) Course is not an issue at all. Right handed (aka Ascot and Curragh). Easy track. Draw won't be a significant issue as she can run up with the pace or come off of it.
(2) 6 runs, same as Sea The Stars and Golden Horn, it didn't stop them winning.
(3) FD still a good jockey in the big races
(4) The French challenge is not strong and if you're referring to intimidation, Frankie will be fully aware and it's quite possible she could make all anyway.

As for 2/1 on the day, no way, PMU or UK, it wouldn't surprise me if she went off 4/6

Of all the principal runners Ulysses is the one I cannot have as I firmly believe he does not truly stay 12f in a fast run race on whatever ground - he ran out of puff despite going ominously well 2f out tracking Enable in the King George (12f soft); the Juddmonte (soft) was run to suit him with Churchill and Barney Roy (both unsuited by soft ground) and cutting each other's throat. Also, I believe his main target is the Breeders Cup.

If the ground on Arc day is soft, I think the chances of Enable will be enhanced as those just below her in the betting eg Ulysses, Satono Diamond, Highland Reel and Winter (unproven) would be inconvenienced except OoSG and Brametot; if good/firm I believe Enable could drift out to between 6/4 and 2/1 as proven challengers are aplenty from home and abroad. But Dettori is a definite plus for her.

Harry Angel already won on my Enable Arc double. Hope it transpires

I hope you get your double up. I'd like to see Enable win too as she has the best form this side of the Channel; I too have her (1.1) with Cracksman (1/1, Niel) and HA (13/8, Sprint) for a small treble as a saver. But it may not be as plain sailing as her short price might suggest,...hoping for the best.

I know I am aftertiming here but I have backed Enable in July at 10/1 and 8/1 and while I  hope she will win there must be safer even money shots running in the next week or so.

Aftertiming does not bother me a bit - one is only kidding oneself, if so; bets placed in July at 10/1 and 8/1 looked astute now. I hope she wins for you, but the race is no walkover with Highland Reel, Brametot, Satono Diamond and OoSG in the field even if Winter is absent, I think. And you are correct, there are better even money shot between now and then however, one can brag about backing an Arc winner at 10/ and 8/1 antepost.

But I thought the Arc was hers to lose - make your bleeding mind up man.

there are better even money shot between now and then

Care to enlighten me with one ?

Cracksman has been ruled out - he'll be taken out tomorrow, according to connections. Could he be supplemented at a monumental cost on 27th if something untoward was to happen to Enable post tomorrow? Why not, with the availability of Dettori, and the absence of Enable.

The ground could be good or better given the forecast weather. As such, has it enhanced the chance of Enable winning? Personally, I'd doubt it; it could bring about a resurgence in the form of Satono Diamond and Cloth Of Stars though; it will also help Highland Reel and Winter (if she runs); it will not inconvenience Brametot either.

Ulysses or no Ulysses on good ground? If so, he'll definitely have a better chance of staying the trip on good ground, but not for me; his number 1 target is the Breeders Cup Turf.

For a very short moment late yesterday evening she went out to 2.66 for a large amount (I had some at 2.5),...scaremongering to try and manipulate the market (there were many bids for 3 and more). Now she is just a shade odds against here with probable good to soft/soft ground anticipated.

The 2.66 was only a blip and matched to £90, Sandown also mentioned the odds on the other Arc thread.

2 days ago you layed her

Yes, I've done at 2.08/2.14 but at 2.5 I'd not look a gift horse in the mouth; 2.5 with anticipated easy ground - no brainer - and I'd always lay her should she go shorter which she has (again). I do not think the blip was caused by an electronic software/trading error either but someone trying to manipulate the market but to no avail. I've seen this happened many times previously for a big race eg Derby or Gold Cup etc.

Enable was a majestic winner,...could not have won an easier. Same again next year perhaps.

Brametot and Winter very unlikely to be running over 12f in the future again, I believe - both just plugged on at one pace.