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Figgis
31 Aug 17 13:44
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 8,729 | Blogger: Figgis's blog
As someone has taken their ball away here is a new Arc thread.
All posts welcome except those that state the bleeding obvious e.g. 'The favourite Enable will start favourite with a favourite's chance, i.e. the best chance in the race, I firmly believe'. That sort of thing Wink
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Report Figgis September 29, 2017 6:00 PM BST
The effect of the draw can only be guessed at in this example. Personally I doubt it cost her more than a length at the most, about a couple of pounds on my scale. It's possible it did cost her about 2.5 lengths and I can't prove it didn't. So for argument's sake let's say she did run to form but was inconvenienced greatly by the draw. There is no way, however, I would be convinced Taghrooda ran to form in the Yorkshire Oaks, no matter how much anyone would try to argue the contrary. So she definitely regressed at York but maybe she came back to form at Longchamp. It's also possible that Enable was a bit below par last time and could be right back on song for Sunday. My argument would still remain the same. We are dealing with a horse who I can't be sure is in as good form as she was earlier in the year.
Report brigust1 September 29, 2017 6:04 PM BST
I am sorry but I have to that Taghrooda running 5lbs below her best is incorrect. In the Oaks she beat two horses who couldn't win a Group 1, in the King George she beat Telescope who couldn't win a Group 1 and Mukhadram who only managed to pinch one Group 1 while in the Arc she beat Tapestry, who beat her in the Yorkshire Oaks, by miles along with 14 other individual Group 1 winners. Enable if she wins will beat the 12 individual Group 1 winners.
Report Figgis September 29, 2017 6:08 PM BST
I am sorry but I have to that Taghrooda running 5lbs below her best is incorrect. In the Oaks she beat two horses who couldn't win a Group 1, in the King George she beat Telescope who couldn't win a Group 1 and Mukhadram who only managed to pinch one Group 1 while in the Arc she beat Tapestry, who beat her in the Yorkshire Oaks, by miles along with 14 other individual Group 1 winners

I am sorry, but that limited way of reading form is for the birds, in my view of course.
Report brigust1 September 29, 2017 6:08 PM BST
I agree more with the 6.04 post. I don't agree she lost the race because of the draw because I think she was beaten to two better horses on the day under those circumstances but I do think it was by some way her best form.
Report brigust1 September 29, 2017 6:09 PM BST
Disappointed by to 6.08 post which is the usual nonsense.
Report Figgis September 29, 2017 6:14 PM BST
Headmaster, do you think that past performances can have a negative affect on a horse's future performances?
Report Figgis September 29, 2017 6:15 PM BST
*effect
Report brigust1 September 29, 2017 7:49 PM BST
Currently raining at Chantilly. Expected to continue for 2 hours.
Report MrDinos September 29, 2017 7:59 PM BST
Lovely... you're a lot better than that Lucy Verasamy Brig! Ever thought about becoming a weatherman? These updates are great. Wink
Report Sankara September 29, 2017 10:54 PM BST
Lots of people wondering if there'll be any pace in a race where there's a confirmed pacemaker in Satono Noblesse is somewhat mystifying.
Report Angela Rebecchi September 29, 2017 11:09 PM BST

Sep 29, 2017 -- 10:57AM, kincsem wrote:


Zarak for me at 34s, drawn 18.Enable has to overcome a draw in 2.2016 Arc 1,2,3 drawn 12,11,16.But I doubt the draw at Chantilly is anyway near as important as at Longchamp.


Wrong.

Report brigust1 September 29, 2017 11:31 PM BST
Stopped raining. Not sure when I've been out.
Report Swagger September 30, 2017 12:23 AM BST
I hope all are well.

I think the following will be too slow to actually win: -
Order of St George
Dschingis Secret
Capri

I like Winter and Brametot as horses but I do not think that either horse will stay the trip well enough to actually win, although one or the either could well look the winner at the two furlong pole.

I just do not see how Ulysses can reverse the form with Enable and he has had a few hard races himself plus is he arguably better over 10 furlongs.

I do not think Idaho will be good enough. The Japanese horse didn't pull up any trees in the trial and the ground is unlikely to suit on Sunday.

Of the massive outsiders Seventh Heaven is of interest and worth a speculative small bet at 150/1 if she recaptures her old form as I think the track will suit her and whilst she would need Enable to underperform a few pounds at 150/1 isn't going to break the bank.

So of the rest I only see three winners of the race.

Enable - Has a fantastic chance. People claim that she will not run her race but for me she looks a horse who has physically got bigger during the season, she has shown a hardy constitution and she has thrived with her racing. I expect her to win well.

Cloth of Stars - I backed this horse for the Epsom Derby and he ran a shocker. He was too keen, he was ridden too handily and he basically didn't run his race. But lets think outside of the box. Fabre only brings over horses he really rates to run in the Epsom Derby. Secondly, the horse could be a late improving type. He has only raced 4 times this year, he won the first three races then got beaten in the Prix Foy where it looked like a racecourse gallop to me, a classic prep run, he went off 17/10 fav that day and from previous history we all know how Fabre uses that race as a genuine prep for the Arc. The horse has never had an SP higher than 8/1 (will be 25/1+ on Sunday), has won 7/12 races, has won at Chantilly, a group one winner and is trained by a guy who has a knack of getting his horses to peak for this race even when they don't have the previous form to do so. I also add that Cloth of Stars has won on heavy / soft ground and I think the horse has been brought along slowly as it should relish the 1 mile 4 furlongs trip (Sea The Stars and Shirley Heights in his breeding) and he stayed on nicely last time. I took some 40/1 with the magic sign earlier.

Zarak is interesting and you have to respect his trainer. He has very quietly been targeted at this race. He has only had one race over the last four months and been taken to the track several times, a few times for gallops and other times to just get used to the surroundings, that's how seriously they are taking it. His form is pretty strong as he ran Almanzor (for me a high quality 10 furlong horse) close on two occasions last season and he won nicely over a mile and a half last time out so he stays the trip yet also possesses a nice turn of foot given his previous form over a mile-ten furlongs. He would have to improve but he is one of the few horses in the race who is open to improvement given he only stepped up to a mile and a half last time out. Chantilly not being his favourite track is a potential negative factor but at 34.0 one I am willing to overlook.

Enable is the most likely winner but Cloth of Stars and Zarak rate as the two outsiders for me.

GL all.
Report MrDinos September 30, 2017 8:53 AM BST
Lee McKenzie on the TalkSport Racing Club show has just said it's started raining again at Chantilly (he's at the course) and the rain will be around for most of the morning. The weather forecasts say the complete opposite for today, laughable! Crazy
Report RozelKid September 30, 2017 9:13 AM BST
Slightly off subject of the Arc to mention a horse running in the PRIX MARCEL BOUSSAC tomorrow.

There is one in there called Narella  14/1 which really impressed me on her debut at Baden Baden a few weeks ago. The step up to a mile looks to be even more in her favour the way she won her race last time. I really like her and is one to follow in her career imo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3MkNKErHlo

The Yoshida Family  purchased this 2yo filly on the 24th September and immediately supplemented her for the Boussac. I think her chances are being underestimated than the 14/1 on offer.

The last time the Yoshida Family did this was with Danedream in 2011. She was quickly purchased at the end of September and then won the Arc in record time a week later.
Report brigust1 September 30, 2017 9:25 AM BST
Mr Dinos. Lee McKenzie is definitely not a he.
The CoC said they had 2mm last night and the going was good to soft (3.4). It only looks like it could be a passing shower on the end of last nights showers.
Report MrDinos September 30, 2017 9:31 AM BST
He is a he and he's a racecourse commentator and main presenter of the TalkSport Race Club show. I know the one you are thinking about and I follow her on Twitter (F1)!
Report MrDinos September 30, 2017 9:34 AM BST
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/lee-mckenzie-821a1324
Report Figgis September 30, 2017 9:45 AM BST
I said a few weeks ago that my thoughts on the Arc could change but I wasn't expecting it to be the Irish St Leger that made my mind up. I expected OOSG to win quite easily but on watching the race at the time I was still surprised just how impressive he was. I still didn't give it too much thought, assuming the rest had performed poorly, until I compared the times. If his time comparison is taken at face value then I have him improving 7lbs on his previous best, which was last year's Arc. It would be the fastest performance I've ever seen over 14f, although that's obviously because real Gp1 horses rarely run over that trip. Most horses have already done their improving by the age of 5 but there are a few that progress further into their 5yo season. As OOSG has been kept to staying races for most of his career it's not unthinkable that he could have a bit more potential running in better races. I don't know why he's regularly talked of as a soft ground horse, as his previous career best was last year's Arc where the ground was the fast side of good at worst. I'd say all ground comes alike to him. I've seen it implied that he's a bit untrustworthy but I don't see that at all. It was poorly judged rides like in this year's Gold Cup that have cost him, not his character.

I mentioned his time being taken at face value. As anyone who does time analysis will know there are some conclusions you can be more confident about than others. The Curragh can be a tricky course anyway because of the layout, and as the Irish St Leger was the longest race that day it could be misleading. The next longest races were over 10f and it's entirely possible that the ground was a bit quicker further out on the track or the wind affected the 14f race differently. If the horse concerned was an even money shot next time I'd be giving more thought to those doubts but as he's a really good price I'll happily take the race at face value until proven otherwise. If Enable is at all below her best OOSG is the one I see taking advantage and I've had a good bet on him.
Report brigust1 September 30, 2017 12:25 PM BST
I may have this wrong Figgis but I do believe in the past you have questioned the ability of horses repeating, or suffering from, their best time performance. Meaning that they are judged on that performance when it is more than likely it had taken more out of them than may have first appeared and b) they are often unable to back it up.
One of my many questions about using times has been backed up by JW stating that he had selected this or that horse because last time out they had put up an amazing time performance and then they had failed. Your assertions about not being able to back up a fast time performance answered my questions in this regard because JWs selections almost always were beaten.
Yet this time you are going for OOSG based upon his last time performance. Am I wrong or just not understanding what you are saying?
Report Figgis September 30, 2017 12:41 PM BST
I don't really subscribe to the 'bounce' theory, which I've usually understood to mean regressing after one career best fast time performance. Most of my biggest bets are specifically on horses who have done exactly what is supposed to be a red flag. It's an Americanism so maybe it applies more to dirt racing, I wouldn't know. I mean yeah I've seen it happen over here on turf but it's not what I'd call expected. It also depends how the horse ran fast of course. If it was chasing a lung busting pace, just managing to get up in the last strides, with the jockey in all out mode then I'd be more concerned about it backing up.
Report Sandown September 30, 2017 12:57 PM BST
An important element frequently left out of "bounce theory" is that it was first applied to horses which have been off for a long time (often for a reason) and then on their first run back are subjected to a hard race (fast time, soft ground, pressured), from which they may then regress.

It (the theory) seems to be have been widened out to apply to any horse which has had a hard race.

After the first race at Chantilly, the final time did not suggest that the ground was overly soft, despite visually some divots being kicked up on the back straight. It may be that it is firmer underneath and looser on top. Any rain between now and 3.05 tomorrow will decide matters. The fresh strip against the rails looks to be about 5 horses width and should ride faster. For the moment I'll stick to good to soft at worse - subject to more rain.
Report brigust1 September 30, 2017 1:09 PM BST
That is how I understood the bounce factor S. I thought the suggestion was that a horse running its fastest time was taking more out of itself than possibly thought or visually appeared.
The Irish St Leger form is pretty poor though. The 2nd and 3rd are only handicappers really and often a horse wins by a wide margin when the chasers accept the issue. Last year's Arc is a strange race and at face value, I am not sure beating Siljans Saga by hard-fought three-quarters of a length is anywhere near good enough.
Report Figgis September 30, 2017 1:09 PM BST
Sandown, I think the lay off element was used more when the theory was applied to Britain by British writers. I don't think it played as big a part in Ragozin's theory, who was supposed to have coined the term. I could be wrong though, as it's a long time since I read that stuff.
Report brigust1 September 30, 2017 1:12 PM BST
Interesting about the ground. Two unkowns are what is the going today and what price will the bookies open up with for Enable tomorrow? Surely in such a big field of possibly closely matched opposition plus the bookies will surely want to get Enable what will they open up with?
Report Figgis September 30, 2017 1:23 PM BST
The thing with fast run races is frequently some of those behind will run far better than they have before or can be expected to run again, so applying A beat B by X to these situations is often meaningless.
Report Figgis September 30, 2017 1:34 PM BST
The 'right' horses were involved in the finish for the Gp2 but because of the trip it's difficult to know how much the final time was affected by the pace. If I have Ice Breeze running to their previous best in a truly run race then it's possible that the ground could be what we'd regard as properly 'soft' over here. However, it probably wasn't run as fast as it could've been so I'd agree with the good to soft estimate so far, but it might take another couple of races to be absolutely sure.
Report Figgis September 30, 2017 1:35 PM BST
* Ice Breeze and Call To Mind.
Report The Headmaster September 30, 2017 1:48 PM BST
Figgis you are correct - the bounce is all about a horse 'bouncing' off a number that was much bigger than it had managed previously (US handicappers commonly chart horses' runs).  Steady progression fine, but a sudden leap is often followed by a way below par effort.  The thought being the horse has experienced mental and physical exertion it hasn't had to deal with before, and without a good break it will chuck in a stinker next time out, having not recovered.  The theory has been bastardised over here to focus on horses (mainly Jumpers) that will run poorly on their second run after a break having run well on return.
Report Figgis September 30, 2017 2:06 PM BST
A bunched finish for the latest race. Obviously not a race involving very good horses in a good time so no chance the ground could be any slower than good to soft at the very worst.
Report Sandown September 30, 2017 2:12 PM BST
As luck would have it, I've found Ragozin's book.

HM is correct in making the point about the big improvement in PB the last time.

Ragozin devoted a hwole chapter to the "bounce" but there are a few choice quotes worth repeating.

" A horse is a better candidate to bounce if he's been heavily raced (in a season)

"It's rare for horses, particularly fillies, to improve in four straight races." (Enable?)

"Don't give a horse any extra credit for having won easily, and don't believe he is less likely to bounce."
Report Figgis September 30, 2017 2:18 PM BST
I'd agree with all of those points except the big improvement in personal best bit, but as I said it may be more applicable to dirt racing for some reason.
Report Sandown September 30, 2017 2:19 PM BST
Re Chantilly ground. The last 2f times for both races were 24.91 (ice Breeze) and 23.71 ( The Juliet Rose). These times, especially the sub 24 secs do NOT happen with ground that is soft, even in slowly run races. Add that to the final times, and I can't see how it could possibly be softer than good to soft, unless the straight is considerably drier than the back straight.

On the other hand, Dettori described it as "soft."
Report Sandown September 30, 2017 2:21 PM BST
NB The Chantilly straight rises 10 metres to the finish so even more doubt about such times being possible on soft ground.
Report MrDinos September 30, 2017 2:43 PM BST
Slightly off subject of the Arc to mention a horse running in the PRIX MARCEL BOUSSAC tomorrow.

There is one in there called Narella  14/1 which really impressed me on her debut at Baden Baden a few weeks ago. The step up to a mile looks to be even more in her favour the way she won her race last time. I really like her and is one to follow in her career imo.


Very impressive run Roz and she's by Reliable Man... he had his best day at Chantilly (Prix Du Jockey Club), 14-1 has made my mind up.

The ground looks pretty much the same as it was on trials day IMO.
Report RozelKid September 30, 2017 3:11 PM BST
She (NARELLA) is trained by Markus Klug, same trainer as Dishingis Secret who runs in the Arc - i always take note when Yoshida buys one - he only buys the best with a long term view of their careers at the Shadai Stud.

She has actually had 2 wins from 2 runs- racing post website didn't show her first run earlier on , now showing a previous win at Cologne,
Report MrDinos September 30, 2017 3:15 PM BST
Yep, I noticed the trainer as well Roz and he's in good form by the look of it. Hopefully they will both run good races tomorrow!!
Report Figgis September 30, 2017 3:59 PM BST
The Prix Dollar was run in a good ground time. Chantilly being shown on ch95, for anyone without access to the subscription channels.
Report ElT September 30, 2017 6:36 PM BST
She (NARELLA) is trained by Markus Klug, same trainer as Dishingis Secret who runs in the Arc - i always take note when Yoshida buys one - he only buys the best with a long term view of their careers at the Shadai Stud.

She has actually had 2 wins from 2 runs- racing post website didn't show her first run earlier on , now showing a previous win at Cologne,

===============
Funny enough I think Klug has an even better two year old filly in Rock My Love


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uO3sNCP-C_g

Furthermore there is another Klug filly Attica who returns tomorrow in a Gr.3 in Dusseldorf at 4-1 odds. If she is fully fit, she´ll win. She crushed the German Oaks winner Lacazar by 4L in the spring, who is now around 6-1 for the Opera.
Report MrDinos September 30, 2017 6:58 PM BST
Blimey, another German filly for the note book, strong traveller and did it very easy... one more for Yoshida?! Cracking info once again EIT, all the very best tomorrow! Wink
Report harry callaghan September 30, 2017 10:56 PM BST
i argued with sandown about the price of enable but i have had a slight u turn and after the draw was announced... i now believe her chances to be longer... a 6/4 chance would be fairer with the runners that are now also running as i didn't see winter as a runner and i didn't actually think capri would turn up

a really tricky affair

i have struggled to find a confident bet in this race i did like order of st george at 25 ante post but have missed the boat, i have him second top rated, he is an interesting runner no doubt, however his best performances have all been against mediocre opposition who are slow rather than having to run fast against faster horses...anyway i like him and he has his chance... i still have my reservations about him against quicker horses so i have to pass him over...the other thing that concerns me with him is this speed favouring track and at the track here they run far faster at this distance than other tracks imo...we will see tomorrow whether i have made an error in judgement and he goes into the race in peak condition...pace will be key for his chances

i have read on here about this being a big field and there is bound to be pace on... however i have found no confirmed speed influences in the field and i see the controlling pace coming from enable and potentially the other japanese horse...

enable is very quick from the gate in fact she is one of the fastest horses i have seen from the gate...her poor draw could be negated by being a controlling speed here and i see no reason why she won't control things or at least sit off an easy lead which round this speed favouring track will negate the poor draw she has received...she is going to be very difficult to beat if this scenario pans out and she was going to be very tough to beat anyway but if given easy fractions near the front end confirmed stayers like the german horse, capri and order of st george will not have the pace to put it up to her imo

capri a horse i have never liked. i have him forth best and think he will outrun his odds as i have him improving slowly but improving all the same and it has to be remembered his st leger win was his first run off the lay off and despite people thinking he had a hard run in the leger i actually thought he won cosily and should come forawrd for the run he is a very decent price here and he has now been able to win in a tactical irish derby and a well run st leger, the cut in the ground will suit and i see no reason why he shouldn't out run the generous odds so have had a bit on him...his chances will depend on a decent pace i'd say but he has his chance at a fair price imo

the other horse i like is the rouget colt brametot he is drawn quite close to the filly who i believe will be the controlling speed here, he ran like a drain last time like a lot of the rouget string at that time, however he is much better than that and if he did jump well from the gate a problem that has been a persistent problem with him and able to sit close to a likely moderate early pace he certainly has the speed to at least race the filly if he can sit near the speed, how he breaks is key...i have had a bit on him

winter was a tad disappointing the last day but she has looked a top class filly to me and if she could come back to her early season form she would have to go well i was just disappointed with her the last day and i have to pass her on with regret...i think she would stay

i don't like the japanese horse but 60/1 on here is generous and the trainer is no mug   

anyway a tight knit affair in which i see the filly taking a world of beating and i have also had a bit on her as just think she is much the best here she may get it very easy near the front end of the field or even on the speed...other confirmed stayers must be praying they can get some speed to run at and even if they do, she still maybe much the best, i have her a mile clear
Report brigust1 September 30, 2017 11:12 PM BST
HC I think that just about sums up how confusing it is.
It was going to rain in 20 mins an hour ago, it didn't. Now it's expected to rain in 90 minutes.
Report brigust1 October 1, 2017 4:22 AM BST
I don't know if it rained but it is not raining now. Mostly cloudy with a little rain expected from around 7 am.
Report brigust1 October 1, 2017 7:04 AM BST
No rain yet. Possible light rain now expected around 10am.
Report brigust1 October 1, 2017 7:07 AM BST
No rain overnight. Apparently, they have had only 1mm in the last 24hrs.
Report unclepuncle October 1, 2017 7:57 AM BST
So much for it pouring down on Sunday - goodbye life changing win on One Foot In Heaven.Cry

Assuming it is no worse than good-to-soft then I'd make Ulysees the clear value bet at 10/1.
Will need luck in running but if he gets a decent run then he is clear 2nd best to my eyes and would be about a 5/1 chance if I were doing a tissue.

If it is fairly decent ground then hopefully Stoute can land a nice double with Queens Trust who hasn't had her conditions all season.
Report brigust1 October 1, 2017 9:35 AM BST
Cloudy now, possible rain at 11 o'clock.
Report brigust1 October 1, 2017 9:36 AM BST
Good morning Uncle I too have had a nice bet on Queens Trust at 10s. Lets hope it stays as dry as possible.
Report A_T October 1, 2017 10:07 AM BST
Enable will win if she performs up to her normal level but how many times have we seen a British champ 3yo flop in Paris? So Enable vs the Field - I like Ulysses.
Report A_T October 1, 2017 10:09 AM BST
a good site for looking at French rain  Grin

https://fr.meteox.com/


There doesn't look to be anything around significant enough to change the ground
Report brigust1 October 1, 2017 11:01 AM BST
No rain at 11pm and none expected now until 5pm.
Report betilyerded October 1, 2017 11:02 AM BST
Taken an e/w punt on Idaho at 33-1 1,2,3,4.
Full brother Highland Reel ran 2nd in the race last year when unfancied, having trod a similar path (2nd in Hardwick/won King george), Idaho winning Hardwick and finishing creditable 3rd in King George, losing his place then running on again.
No idea if very testing ground will suit but Heffernan - who is 1,1,3,6,1,3 - on the horse and who was 2,1,2,2,2,1 on Highland Reel, takes the ride. Also think draw 7 is a good place to be to nab a place late on.
Theyve all got Enable to beat though. As always, good luck all!
Report 1st time poster October 1, 2017 11:29 AM BST
ulysses ran in kg geo,harder race at York than the fav and fav is more suited to 12 than Ulysses,cant see any reason other than price to fancy uly to beat enable
Report RozelKid October 1, 2017 11:32 AM BST
Topped up again on Satano Diamond at 50-1 ew and Dishingris at 16 sew
Report Millerracing67 October 1, 2017 12:55 PM BST
Hope Enable does the biz, if still in top form, she should.  :-)
Report EastLower Gooner October 1, 2017 1:24 PM BST
I went for Ulysses w/p.

My feeling is that this will be test with a strong pace from the outset and no let up until very late in the day.

You got pace makers and the you got horses like OOSG and Capri who will want to press on as soon as possible.

So I don't think Enable will have it all her own way like in her King George romp....she could get softened up and be target late on.

That's when I think Ulysses can strike....the issue with his stall is where does Jim Crowley decided to start his challenge from....does he stay inside or does he switch wide...stays inside and he'll need the splits which may never come...go outside and could he will lose many lengths and come too late like Harp Star.

So he'll need to work out a trip from #1.   

But I think if he gets a smooth run through he should be bearing down on them late...his form has been top class this season and he should get a dream pace set up.
Report brigust1 October 1, 2017 3:13 PM BST
Cracksman wouldn't have won today.
Report sageform October 1, 2017 3:13 PM BST
Just awesome. I did back her but at the prices, not a big stake. Just a pleasure to see a real star win like that. Reminded me of Treve.
Report Figgis October 1, 2017 3:16 PM BST
Brilliant performance from the filly. Looked different class from an early stage. Well done backers. Just waiting for the detractors Wink
Report brigust1 October 1, 2017 3:17 PM BST
No detractors here. She is clearly a top class filly. Now I know why JG never wanted to run Cracksman. Still think she beat f all though. Wink
Report RozelKid October 1, 2017 3:19 PM BST
fcuk - wd to all Enable backers - pleasure to watch the best horse win the race.
Report brigust1 October 1, 2017 3:20 PM BST
Will she stay in training? That would be nice.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! October 1, 2017 3:22 PM BST
Apparently YES

Grin
Report ReaseHeath October 1, 2017 3:22 PM BST
I did n't have a bet in the race but agree she is an absolute pleasure to watch, massive engine, ability and a temperament to match...
Report A_T October 1, 2017 3:23 PM BST
easy win - crushed them all when they kicked for home then probably idled a little

due to the bias against fillies won't get a fancy 130+ rating but is just as good as many that have had in the past
Report sageform October 1, 2017 3:24 PM BST
Apart from Cracksman who I agree would not have beaten her, what other 12 furlong horses were missing? Cloth of Stars looked good in the spring and Ulysses has progressed all year. Brametot has always looked a good horse etc. etc. Great for Nathaniel as well.
Report sageform October 1, 2017 3:26 PM BST
The only downer was the absence (as far as I could see) of Prince Khaled. What will happen to Juddmonte when he passes away?
Report brigust1 October 1, 2017 3:29 PM BST
I'm already booked for next year lets hope she does stay in training. And of course, Cracksman turns up.
Report jedi sophie October 1, 2017 3:29 PM BST
Super super win...Juddmonte a class class act.
Report Millerracing67 October 1, 2017 3:46 PM BST
Superstar filly. Never looked in doubt, always in the box seat & travelling great, diff class.
Report unclepuncle October 1, 2017 4:37 PM BST
Great performance from horse, jockey and trainer - even with Coolmore trying everything up their sleeve to faze her she never batted an eyelid and is such a nice uncomplicated filly.
I guess they can aim at anther Arc next year a'la Treve but tbh she has nothing left to prove so retirement might be the best option.
Report brigust1 October 1, 2017 4:52 PM BST
I disagree Uncle. A lot of people thought Zarkava should have stayed in training. It just confirms that their status in my opinion. I think it would be great to see her next year with the Arc in mind, don't you?
Report The Headmaster October 1, 2017 4:54 PM BST
Every horse has something to prove until it's doing it without a wfa allowance.  In my humble.
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 1, 2017 4:57 PM BST
I'm never a fan of early retirement, it's good to see these champions prove themselves again against the next generation the following year.
Report brigust1 October 1, 2017 5:35 PM BST
Well done Andrew hope you had a great day. Off to Oxford Street now I guess. Hope I can watch her next year against Cracksman. Wink

And very well done Swagger. Hope you had the forecast?
Report unclepuncle October 1, 2017 6:44 PM BST
Yes excellent write up on Cloth Of Stars by Swagger - convinced me enough to have a little, but win only unfortunately.
Report Can't Catch Me October 2, 2017 3:24 PM BST
even with Coolmore trying everything up their sleeve to faze her

What exactly did Coolmore try to do iyo?
Report unclepuncle October 2, 2017 5:54 PM BST
Hahaha.LaughLaugh

CCM can't refute my arguments on the Liverpool thread so thought he'd try to diss me on here instead. Funny how he hasn't' posted on the Cambridgeshire thread. Devil

Much to your obvious chagrin they clearly ran the strong stayers Idaho and your fancy OoSG in an attempt to try to put it up to Enable for as long as possible in the hope she would wilt.
About as good a strategy as Klopp has with ZLiverpool.Crazy
Report Can't Catch Me October 2, 2017 6:52 PM BST
I asked a simple comment about your post on the race? What on earth has that got to do with the nonsense you post on the Liverpool thread?

They ran the horses they felt had their best chance of winning it. Nothing more, nothing less. Hardly an attempt to try 'everything up their sleeve to faze her'.
Report Andrew in Sweden October 3, 2017 5:30 PM BST
Well done Andrew hope you had a great day. Off to Oxford Street now I guess. Hope I can watch her next year against Cracksman.

Hi Laurie,

Thank you, back in Sweden now after a nice couple of days in UK, but a better two at Chantilly Wink although my daughter will have to wait until December for Oxford St shopping though.

Enable looked well in the paddock, JG has done a great job keeping her in good fettle considering the long season, but she takes her racing well. She won relatively easy imo, Frankie did a lot of the work in the first 2 furlongs and once she settled in the leading group, it was more or less plain sailing from there. As soon as she took the lead, I knew she would pull away, there wasn’t anything in the field to catch her, in fact Frankie let her down in the last 50 metres. I was confident, right from the KG and the several posts on a few threads here back that up (although I also stated she wasn’t a certainty). I've won a good few quid, so happy days.

She’s an exceptional filly, but is she as good or better than my beloved Zarkava, I really think she could be. I fully expect her to race in 2018 and there isn’t much around who could beat her over 12f. although it makes life more difficult with the WFA allowance. Cracksman ? He could make a nice colt in 2018, but I can't see him beating the filly.

I walked behind your buddy TG (and JG) on the way out, shaking hands and congratulating them. I jokingly asked Teddy if she would be back next year, he just laughed and said “we will have to think about that”. I think all concerned know she will, although they have a lot of time to consider it of course, and KA did keep Frankel racing as a 4 year old.

As for Chantilly course, the countryside forest setting is wonderful, but I wasn’t impressed with the facilities. It’s far too small for such a race meeting (poor infrastructure for large crowds and limited seating) and it’s ‘seen better days’, but I guess the FG wanted to keep the race in Paris, there aren’t too many options in France anyway. I did see a video of the progress at Longchamp, it looks superb. I already want to go in April 2018 when it opens again.

I arrived at the airport on Friday evening and it was raining, as it was in parts of Paris on Saturday night, but Sunday afternoon at the course was dry. The pedometer registered 3.6 with the going officially described as ‘souple’ (soft) and I feel this was accurate. It wasn’t heavy.
Report Andrew in Sweden October 3, 2017 5:31 PM BST
* without the WFA allownace
Report Sandown October 4, 2017 11:06 AM BST
Some observations on the race

1. Enable's RPR in the race was 129 which is spot on the average RPR for the past 27 years (Highest Peintre Celebre 137  Lowest Found,Solemnia,Urban Sea all 124) By comparisons the RPR's for other previous recent filly winners were Zarkava 129, Treve 131,126,

2.The official going description was soft . On times (RP) given as good

3. Enable was the first British trained filly to win an Arc

4. The first 3 were drawn 2,3,1. Last year the first 3 were drawn 12,11,16.

5. Ulysses was beaten 3.75 L. At Ascot the gap was 4.5 L

6. A return to norm on age for 3yr olds who since 1980 have won 63% of races from 48% of runners. They have won 1.32 times more than expected vs 4yr 0.9 times and 5+ 0.27 times expected.

Was it a vintage year? No, it was an average year.

Was Enable a deserving winner? Absolutely, no flukes, no unlucky horses who might have won.

The future? Watch out for Ulysses when he gets fast ground, especially at 10f, Brametot when returned to 10f, OOSG when returned to 16f+
Report Figgis October 4, 2017 11:49 AM BST
4. The first 3 were drawn 2,3,1. Last year the first 3 were drawn 12,11,16.

Just shows the silly conclusions that are drawn after little evidence. Fact is last year the fastest 3 horses on the day finished 1,2,3, and the same this year.
Report impossible123 October 4, 2017 12:28 PM BST
Sandown
"Was it a vintage year? No, it was an average year. Was Enable a deserving winner? Absolutely, no flukes, no lucky horses who might have won. The future? Look out for Ulysses when he gets fast ground, especially over 10f, Brametot when returned to 10f, and OoSG when returned to 16f+".

I totally agree with your observations and opinions, why? Ulysses is no world beater eg comprehensively beaten by Highland Reel on ground that suited in the Prince Of Wales; OoSG (4th) running in an inadequate trip but should have been 2nd or 3rd if ridden more conservatively; Cloth Of Stars (2nd), a mediocre but fresh horse; Brametot is no Gp1 12f horse; Winter did not stay. Also, there were no former established yardstick Gp1 10f/12f horse eg Postponed, Flintshire, Found, Highland Reel, Almanzor even La Cressoniere, to name a few. But Frankie Dettori rode an intelligent and astute race.

Nevertheless, I'd hope Enable stays in training for at least another year. And, if she wins another Arc only then she'd be compared/talked about in the same vein as Treve, to borrow a remark from Criquette Head.
Report Figgis October 4, 2017 12:57 PM BST
Credit to Gosden. I thought it was a risk giving her an aggressive campaign with this race as the ultimate target but she looked as fresh as ever. I don't know how much of that is influenced by training methods or Gosden's ability to recognise how much racing she could take. Maybe he just got lucky and the bold campaign paid off because she was so good. But when I see yards that struggle to get a horse to run to form even twice in a row he certainly seems to be doing something right.
Report The Headmaster October 4, 2017 3:06 PM BST
Yes, just a tad disappointing that Sandown's observations/conclusions contained nothing about the campaign Enable had, or indeed the way it was analysed by some.
Report Figgis October 4, 2017 3:36 PM BST
Headmaster, when estimating, or even guessing, if a horse will be over the top or in less than peak form for a race things always look easy after the race. The fact is you can never really know for sure how each horse will be affected by its past races, as they're all individuals, but you can generalise from what has happened in the past. If Postponed had won last year his backers would've said everyone who opposed him had overlooked the obvious. Authorized was a total flop in his year but was his campaign any tougher than Enable's? Generous won the King George even easier than Enable and even had a total break before the Arc but was still a washout on the day. There have been many others with similar outcomes. It's the same old divide between seeing a race as a puzzle to be solved or seeing it as a matter of potential outcomes. If somebody wins a 4/5 coin flip then most people can see it still wasn't a good bet. Although I'm sure there would be those who would argue a winner is a winner. However, after a race an even money winner is nearly always seen as being a good bet by many.
Report Sandown October 4, 2017 3:41 PM BST
Yes, just a tad disappointing that Sandown's observations/conclusions contained nothing about the campaign Enable had, or indeed the way it was analysed by some.

I'll take that as criticism HM, petty criticism as it is.

Figgis addressed the point in his latest post, and I fully agree with that.Or perhaps you didn't read the interview with JG in Sunday's RP. It helps to explain that worrying about the prep for the Arc was also in JG's mind. "He said "It was  at least half my intention to go straight to the Arc but in early August she dropped Mr Dettori one morning and was so well in herself that we decided to go to York." He went on " Part of Enable's weaponry is the sheer stamp of her....exceptional example of the racehorse..incredible body...real depth of girth...powerful cardio-vascular system..notably large lugs." The scales tell you plenty...she has taken all her races incredibly well..weighing in the same now as big as ever..she enjoys her exercise  and she likes to please."


All very positive stuff, which as a punter I would liked to have heard earlier. Part of the stuff which we don't know. The focus on her prep and season was the right thing to have done, the evidence is in the book regarding how it has affected the running of horses, indeed how difficult it is to bring a horse to the race spot on. Indeed, just look at how Fabre manages to do it year after year and his handling of Cloth of Stars was evidence of that. The horses ran a superb race and turned around the form with DS. I would say that COS finishing second was as good a training feat as JG's.

Anyway, to the main point which I and others made which was that taking evens as an AP bet was a poor value bet and if the horse hadn't got there people would have seen the error of their ways. The horse was available on the day at the same price, at least.

If you do not believe that the best prep for winning the Arc is having  a break beforehand, then perhaps you could put up the evidence for that being the case. JG has shown that can be done, as he did with GH, but that doesn't mean that overall that is the best  way. It clearly depends on the horse as well as the trainer, but not being privy to what is happening on the gallops, we have to work with what type of prep has worked best over the years.
Report Andrew in Sweden October 4, 2017 4:32 PM BST
Ulysses was beaten 3.75 L. At Ascot the gap was 4.5 L

Correct, but at Ascot she was receiving 14lb, in the Arc only 10lb. So almost an identical run for both, albeit on softer going for the Arc.

Whilst I agree it was not a vintage year for an Arc, it was still contested by many winners of major races in several countries, and it shouldn't be forgotten what Enable has achieved this season. 4 Oaks (never done before) a KG and an Arc, that some basically iterated the latter was a mountain to high for her to climb. I doubt this will ever be done again.

When Treve won her first Arc, she had 2 races prior to it as a 3 year old, and the following year 3 races prior to the Arc. Enable had 6 runs !. Criquette Head will obviously defend Treve (although she stated she was very impressed by Enable) but in my opinion Enable is the better 3 year old by comparison. Irrespective of whether she runs next season (I feel she will) she's a truly exceptional filly, not only for the races won, but also in the manner. Personally I don't think she can be beaten next year at 12f although I wouldn't be rushing to back her at the current 3/1 that will probably still be available next April.
Report The Headmaster October 4, 2017 4:36 PM BST
Figgis - no one was talking about Authorized or those other horses.  It was the Filly and Mare rubbish that Muscat spouted and Sandown ran with that got my goat.

Sandown - I've clearly failed to convince you that Taghrooda, Snow Fairy and others hadn't failed in the Arc.  Failed to win the Arc, yes, but only a punter who goes no further than form-figures should describe those runs by those horses as failures.  That was were I believed your analysis to be fundamentally flawed and why Muscat's gibberings were called out as monumental guff before the race and proved right after it.  But we're clearly no further down the line despite the race now being run and the result in the book, which is what I, politely rather than pettily, described it as a tad disappointing. 

I see Muscat's at it again today with this statement, neatly delivered as fact..."From a purist’s perspective the barometer of modern excellence in the racehorse is not Frankel, it is Sea The Stars."

WTF are you on about?  I would guess I am a 'purist' and I don't agree with that.  At all.  But we're just counting up those 1s again, it seems, and as Sea The Stars had more 1s than Frankel (at 3) he gets Julian's gong.
Report Andrew in Sweden October 4, 2017 4:40 PM BST
Hypothetical of course, but given the opportunity I would have bet serious money on Frankel to beat STS over 10f
Report Figgis October 4, 2017 4:46 PM BST
Figgis - no one was talking about Authorized or those other horses.  It was the Filly and Mare rubbish that Muscat spouted and Sandown ran with that got my goat

Fair enough. I'm not convinced about fillies being less able to take the demands of a busy season myself and personally I'd categorise colts and fillies together when taken that into account. On another note regarding fillies, particularly 3yo fillies, I read years ago that they should be viewed as unreliable betting prospects due to erratic performances relating to their cycle. I took it on board but decided to find out for myself. In fact I found that for me fillies are just as good betting prospects as colts. A favourable amount of my best wins have been on fillies, even though I don't particularly seek them out.
Report Sandown October 4, 2017 4:47 PM BST
Ratings only measure how good a single performance is, and it doesn't seem right that a higher figure is interpreted as implying a better horse. Enable has surely achieved something special, in winning the KG and The Arc in the same year, let alone the numerous Oaks. So, Andrew, I wouldn't argue with your view that she has to be appreciated for that. Her rating is somewhat dependent on whom she beat and in what time. She could go on to show a higher rating. Let's hope that she does, but what is more important is to respect her toughness and consistency as a 3 year old.
Report Figgis October 4, 2017 4:50 PM BST
"From a purist’s perspective the barometer of modern excellence in the racehorse is not Frankel, it is Sea The Stars."

Like most, I thought Sea The Stars was a great 3yo, but it's news to me that the 'purist' judges excellence as horses who only performed receiving wfa.
Report Sandown October 4, 2017 4:55 PM BST
Sandown - I've clearly failed to convince you that Taghrooda, Snow Fairy and others hadn't failed in the Arc.  Failed to win the Arc, yes, but only a punter who goes no further than form-figures should describe those runs by those horses as failures.  That was were I believed your analysis to be fundamentally flawed and why Muscat's gibberings were called out as monumental guff before the race and proved right after it.  But we're clearly no further down the line despite the race now being run and the result in the book, which is what I, politely rather than pettily, described it as a tad disappointing.

I see that you are adding pedantry to your pettiness now.I am quite happy to concede that being beaten in a race doesn't equate to failure in performance  as such, but then I think that most reasonable people would accept that failure  as used was intended only to mean that the horses failed to win the race. Why you have to make something out of this is beyond my understanding. It doesn't lead to respectful debate when someone can quibble over the meaning of a word used.
Report The Headmaster October 4, 2017 5:11 PM BST
I don't see it as semantics - understood it as being the whole essence of your argument, Sandown, otherwise why would you be noting their performances as a stick to beat Enable with...if you actually thought they'd run very well?  Think I'm going to hop off the bus now though, as the insults are starting to pop up. For the record I normally enjoy your reading your posts and would take your reading of the sport over Muscat's any day of the week.  Apologies if that didn't come through.
Report Sandown October 4, 2017 6:53 PM BST
I admit to being annoyed with you HM but am happy to move on. If you read my posts then you know that I am not a win/can't win person. If there is a doubt which relates to risk, then it changes my estimate of win probability which in turn affects my estimate of price.We can't a;ways have the perfect data which we want so we end up using what we have. Win stats are part of what we have and they can play a reliable part. They are not the be all and end all for me as illustrated by the fact that I have always rated Enable as having the the highest win probability and therefore the most likely winner.So much so, that on the day,I backed her back so that she wasn't a loser for me at least. Ulysses, Brametot, Zarak and COS would have done me rather nicely.Beating her with a stick was not what I was aiming to do.I just never saw her as a sole win bet at evens.
Report liberator of the oppressed October 9, 2017 5:34 PM BST
If Enable is staying in training next year you would have to assume Mr O isn't happy i'd be pigged off if Frankie wasn't going to choose Cracksman if Enable is running. Cracksman now needs to step up to the plate and win the Champions on Saturday week (21st) by a mile because i've got a large wodge on at silly prices runs and hacks up. OI Oi.
Report impossible123 October 9, 2017 7:46 PM BST
Very good news Enable will race again next season and the 2018 Arc at Longchamp will be her main target.

Regards Cracksman, will he run on Champions Day next weekend? Personally, I'd doubt it, over 10f and possibly on good ground too as he takes a while to get into top gear, and stamina is his essence. If connections chose not to run him in the Arc I think he'd be packed off for next season instead, but hope not as he needs to prove how much he's has come on; beating Venice Beach in the Leger is not sufficient kudos to consider him a serious Arc principal for 2018 Arc (yet) given the poor showing of Capri in this year's renewal.
Report liberator of the oppressed October 10, 2017 5:49 PM BST
Rab indicated all is well and going to post in the RP good enough for me 123 starts and wins will muller that lot of inferior opposition weather forecast good for the Cracksman.
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