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Paterson92
17 Aug 17 19:25
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Date Joined: 02 Sep 14
| Topic/replies: 1,081 | Blogger: Paterson92's blog
Churchill 11/4 - if he wins the Juddmonte, he wins this
Winter 13/2 - more than likely going for the Matron Stakes on the same card but AOB might be tempted to re-route here if Churchill doesn't handle the step up to 1m2f in the Juddmonte
Brametot 7/1 - surely won't be making an appearance here after weekend flop
Ulysses 10/1 - possible runner
Cliffs Of Moher 10/1 - likely runner
Barney Roy 12/1 - possible runner but yet to see Hannon mention this race
Rhododendron 12/1 - on a recovery mission, doubt if this race would be on the agenda
Highland Reel 12/1 - every chance he will line up here assuming he gets his ground
Eminent 12/1 - probably booked his ticket after a solid win in France at the weekend
Shutter Speed 14/1 - not sure what the plans are, haven't seen anything mentioned
Seventh Heaven 16/1 - another one who's on the road to recovery, unsure of plans/nothing mentioned
Jack Hobbs 16/1 - could be on the agenda en route to the Arc
20/1+ include Cracksman, Decorated Knight, Hawkbill, Ribchester and Zhukova

Would love to see Winter take on the boys but her participation depends on Churchill's ability over 1m2f I would imagine.

Does anyone have an early fancy?
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Report impossible123 August 17, 2017 9:27 PM BST
The Juddmonte is next wednesday and this race is 9th Sept ie just 17 days after thus how many of the Juddmonte protagonists will actually pitch their tents here so soon after? Seventh Heaven is still on the sick list but she is fav for the Fillies and Mares at Newmarket on 21st Oct hence unlikely here, I'd think; this is not a target for Jack Hobbs, and if sound will run in the Arc; Winter is more likely Matron Stakes bound leaving Rhododendron if fit enough; Barney Roy, if winning the Juddmonte, could be Arc bound and then Champions Stakes at Newmarket, I believe - the proximity of this race to the Juddmonte could be factor too.

Eminent and Highland Reel are the two most likely, in my opinion, from the above eg the former won last tuesday and the latter missing the Juddmonte to make way for Churchill. Almanzor and Brametot after their disappointing runs at Deauville will most likely stay in France for their next race, if the former is still in training.
Report unclepuncle August 17, 2017 9:59 PM BST
impossible123
15 Aug 17 22:12

I think 20/1 for Eminent, surely that is a p*ss take by bookies for a horse that could not even beat Wings Of Eagles, Cliffs Of Moher and Cracksman in the Epsom Derby (ED); a horse that beat Salouen - another over-ran in the ED - after given a 10l start by Brametot; a horse connections have chosen to swerve the Juddmonte with.


But you have said on the Arc thread that Eminent has no chance so how can you possibly now fancy him for this.Confused

The gap from the York gives horses plenty of time to recover - Sea The Stars and Giants Causeway won both, Golden Horn was 2nd at York before winning in Irleand, Dylan Thomas was twice placed in the Juddmonte before winning in Ireland, last year Found ran 2nd in the Yorkshire Oaks and then the Irish Champion, etc, etc.
Report impossible123 August 31, 2017 5:24 PM BST
Ulysses was seriously backed yesterday similarly Eminent a few days ago however, the latter is not a certain runner yet; Highland Reel has been backed too, if so, not totally a vote of confidence for Churchill who was comprehensively beaten by Ulysses on ground softer than ideal for Churchill.

What a race if Ulysses, Churchill, Highland Reel and Eminent all show up next saturday.
Report impossible123 August 31, 2017 7:49 PM BST
Alan Cooper, the racing manager for Ulysses's owner has indicated Ulysses will not be running here, but the Arc is a possibility - the aim is still the Breeders Cup at Del Mar on 4th Nov.
Report impossible123 September 1, 2017 4:56 PM BST
Now with the non-participation of Ulysses, according to his owner's racing manager, Churchill is even money despite two of his formidable stablemates ie Highland Reel and Winter, and Eminent still declared. I think unless Eminent is running either one or both of his stablemates would be unlikely runners.
Report brigust1 September 4, 2017 4:21 PM BST
I've had a few bob on Cliffs of Moher at 20's. It's all Figgis's fault. He talked the talk before the Derby and some of it stuck, and every reason after just getting nutted. Ran a strange race in the Eclipse but at 20's, while the horse he beat in the Eclipse, Eminent is 8s. AOB said he was a likely runner so I've taken the 20's ew. Not sure he went fast enough at York in the Juddmone but on probably similar ground and definitely a stiffer track this could be a very good opportunity to get back on track.
Report impossible123 September 4, 2017 6:10 PM BST
If CoM is ridden on merit and not as a pacemaker for Churchill like he did in the Juddmonte (I believe) then he could surprise as Churchill is definitely beatable especially if Highland Reel and/or Ulysses runs; Eminent could beat him too if ridden like he did in France, I think; Churchill only beat Barney Roy (I think) because Barney Roy raced too freely against CoM in the Juddmonte and had his stamina limitation exposed.

Tomorrow should shed more light on who the runners will be but I'm expecting Highland Reel and Winter to drop out.
Report impossible123 September 5, 2017 5:03 PM BST
The tuesday decs are out and Highland Reel (HR) has been scratched, but Winter is still in. Eminent is also an intended runner and as such, Churchill has drifted to odds against. But I think Winter will only run if Churchill cannot as I believe there is no business sense running Winter against him given HR has been taken out for the same reason. Also, Churchill still has something to prove whilst Winter does not - she has won 4 Gp1 races successively.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 5, 2017 6:56 PM BST
Also, Churchill still has something to prove whilst Winter does not - she has won 4 Gp1 races successively.

So did Churchill, who doesn't have anything to prove at all. A dual guineas winner and top class horse in his own right, additionally there could be excuses for at least one of two recent defeats.
Report A_T September 5, 2017 10:10 PM BST
poor renewal
Report kjansch September 6, 2017 12:55 AM BST
Have the Brits no horses they're willing to send over for this?

This was the best race in years last year...why the drop off this year?

Look at the juvenile group 1 races at the curragh - not a single british entry at the 5 day stage

Are they deliberately not supporting the meeting?
Report brigust1 September 6, 2017 9:01 AM BST
I suggest you look again at last years race Kjansch. We only had My Dream Boat and Hawkbill running for us. AOB always strongly supports the Irish races because there was a threat some would lose their Group status. Even to the detriment of the UK races. With Haydock on at the same time and so many meetings and so many Group races nowadays the better horses have far more choice and often softer races to go for. Why take on the Ballydoyle best on their home ground? Let them get on with it.
Report impossible123 September 6, 2017 2:47 PM BST
I still do not envisage Winter will be allowed to take on Churchill for commercial reasons, so why AOB has not stated she'll only run if Churchill does not. Or will AOB withdraw Winter tomorrow? Churchill has firmed up slightly from 2.55 to 2.3 (here) - he was 1.92 on monday; Winter has drifted from 5 to 7.6, but Eminent has contracted.

A straight fight between Churchill and Eminent or will Cliffs Of Moher spoil the party?
Report johnn September 6, 2017 7:52 PM BST
Anyone know if Poets Word is an intended runner?
Report Andrew in Sweden September 6, 2017 8:40 PM BST
Johnn, from the RP

Not content with having conquered Churchill with Ulysses in the Juddmonte International at York, Sir Michael Stoute is once again taking aim at the four-time Group 1 winner with Poet's Word.

The Group 3 Glorious Goodwood winner has plenty to find on ratings with the Ballydoyle representative, but owner Saeed Suhail's racing manager Bruce Raymond explained there could be improvement to come from the four-year-old.

"He's improving and going to be a pretty good horse," said Raymond.

"He worked this morning and the plan is to go there with James Doyle riding.

"It's a big step up for him. He's in a Group 3 at Kempton, which I would have thought he'd certainly be in the first two in, but it's a huge pot in Ireland and Michael thinks let's have a go.
"
Report brigust1 September 6, 2017 9:09 PM BST
Hi Andrew, hope you are well.

I've backed Cliffs of Moher, I think he is over priced and may offer more this time than at York. I cannot believe the prices available. He is now 14s, I've backed him at 20s and again at 14s. Eminent is 9/2 and he beat him in the Derby and the Eclipse. His French run wasn't an improvement on the Derby form so I cannot see why he is shorter. Even Poets Word who hasn't even run in a Gr2 before is shorter. The track is stiffer than York and with Eminent likely to make the running, unless AOB runs something else, he can be ridden the way he was at Chester, Epsom and Sandown. I know he may not beat Churchill but I don't think that is a given here.
Report johnn September 6, 2017 10:02 PM BST
Thanks Andrew, not sure hoe I missed that in the Post. Have taken a little 12s,doesn't look a deep race and the fav doesn't look unbeatable.
Report impossible123 September 7, 2017 11:55 AM BST
10 declared with AOB fielding 3 headed by Churchill and Cliffs of Moher - Taj Mahal could be playing the role of the hare; Eminent and Poets Word come next, but no Winter.
Report roadrunner46 September 7, 2017 1:41 PM BST
just had a quick look at the race, churhill's run behind Ulysses looks the best form on offer, tricky thing is whats
the most likely to finish 2nd in the race? will add the fav into a few multiples on weekend. not interested in just backing in a single.
Report brigust1 September 7, 2017 6:46 PM BST
I'm not convinced about that roadrunner.

I think Taj Mahal and Eminent will vie for the lead and set a fast pace to make Churchill stay. That wasn't really what happened at York but on this rain softened ground and the stiff uphill finish I think CoM will do what he did in the Derby and put his guaranteed stamina and speed to good use.
Report woodmanchester September 7, 2017 8:27 PM BST
Cliffs Of Moher guaranteed stamina. Didn't he go out like a light last time?
Report roadrunner46 September 7, 2017 8:40 PM BST
like you say, COM could be the fly in the ointment, understandable people having a go at the prices on offer.
gl all
Report brigust1 September 7, 2017 10:00 PM BST
I'm not sure they went that fast and he knew the two milers and the inner had more speed. This is a completely different scenario and a completely different track. He was 2nd in the Derby so 10f should absolutely no problem. Not sure you can say that about the favourite who they took out of the Derby.
Report brigust1 September 8, 2017 11:58 AM BST
Success Days is also a strong front runner so there will be bags of pace on. Everything will have to stay this trip.
Report impossible123 September 8, 2017 12:24 PM BST
I think Taj Mahal (TM) is the most likely hare for the AOB's other inmates. However, if Cliffs of Moher (CoM) is the hare his backers (I'm one) could tear up their betting vouchers soon after, I firmly believe.

I'd expect CoM (Heffernan) sitting just behind TM, Success Days and alongside Eminent but infront of Churchill and going for home 1f out if infront and Eminent (capitulating); Churchill does take a while to get into top gear, and if stamina is the essence I think CoM could outstay him to the line.

I hope Heffernan (CoM) does not let Churchill win like he did on Port Douglas against US Army Ranger.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 8, 2017 1:25 PM BST
Hi Laurie, doing good thanks and in a few hours will be on my way to UK for the weekend, although sadly not at Leopardstown. Mind you that could be a positive as last time i went (a lifetime ago) FD and Daylami won the big one, but I was on HRC's so called 'superstar' and favourite Royal Anthem who had won his previous race by a street. I thought it was a case of point and shoot. I still have nightmares about that race Wink

The distance shouldn't be an issue for Churchill as long as it doesn't get heavy (unlikely) although it wouldn't be the ideal track for him. I have a feeling he's going to win convincingly, it could have been a stronger race, but he's nowhere near a good thing. If he doesn't win, there are a few shorties on Sunday to buy back the loss Wink

Johnn, YW, hope the article was beneficial.

Good luck to all that play.
Report brigust1 September 8, 2017 4:04 PM BST
Hi Andrew. I'm not a shortie person really although there are some really good bets that cannot be missed. You already know what I have backed in this race I have also taken some big prices in the Arc. If he wins tomorrow they may well decide to go there next. After all he did beat Cracksman in the Derby and he should be 2nd favourite. It all adds to the enjoyment.
Report brigust1 September 8, 2017 10:20 PM BST
Just like in the Juddmonte International, Cliffs Of Moher follows Churchill into battle but this time O'Brien stressed that the Investec Derby runner-up will not be cutting out the running.

O'Brien said: "Cliffs Of Moher has not done a whole lot since York. The race didn't really pan out the way we would have liked there and I would say we will take our time with him on this occasion. He seems well."

That is what I was hoping. Could be a serious danger to the fav up that stiff finish.
Report kingG111111 September 8, 2017 10:25 PM BST
What's the ground going to be like ? Will it suit cliffs of moher?
Report brigust1 September 8, 2017 10:52 PM BST
I don't see the ground being a problem at all. Of course the faster it is will help ease any stamina issues with Churchill.
Report sageform September 9, 2017 12:58 PM BST
Eminent for me. He may not be quite the finished article yet but he is going to be a star.
Report A_T September 9, 2017 1:21 PM BST
Churchill should add to his G1s here - field looks decidedly average
Report brigust1 September 9, 2017 1:38 PM BST
I backed Eminent in France Sage but he didn't have to improve to win. Salouen was 10 lengths behind in the Derby and he beat him 3 lengths. The favourite never turned up. In the Eclipse Ciffs of Moher ran him down and the same in the Derby. He may improve but he hasn't shown it on the track yet.
Report Figgis September 9, 2017 4:44 PM BST
churhill's run behind Ulysses looks the best form on offer

Agreed. I can understand people wanting to take Churchill on, because if he puts in a run similar to the one at Ascot he won't be winning and the race is blown wide open. On the other hand his latest run wasn't far below his best. That day he proved he gets 10f 88y so this easier trip will be no problem. Although the final times for the early races at Leopardstown have been quite slow for some reason, which doesn't appear to be lack of pace or soft ground, possibly rail movement and/or wind is the explanation. I have Eminent needing to improve 6lbs to match Churchill's York effort, COM needs to find 7lbs on his best. Certainly not impossible they could improve but I wouldn't say it was probable. In a faster run race Poet's Word could be capable of improving on what he's shown so far but he definitely needs to. On past form Decorated Knight is the only one that could give an on song Churchill a race but he's been well below form on his most recent runs. I think it basically revolves around whether Churchill runs his race or not and I'd make him more like an 8/13 chance so I'm backing him.
Report impossible123 September 9, 2017 5:28 PM BST
Backers of Churchill and Cliffs Of Moher will be happy with good ground, and no rain either. Good luck all!
Report harry callaghan September 9, 2017 5:49 PM BST
Did do a write up for this but it's gone anyway in short I still don't rate the 3 year olds and although i agree with figgis in regards the price Churchill should be I still have a slight reservations about his stamina...anyway have taken a chance on poets word stepping up in a truly rum affair and I still don't believe he has as much to find as the ratings suggest...churchill will be very tough to beat if repeating his York run
Report impossible123 September 9, 2017 6:30 PM BST
Serious money for Churchill, the boys I hope.
Report brigust1 September 9, 2017 6:51 PM BST
Murdered.Cry
Report brigust1 September 9, 2017 7:01 PM BST
I watched Heffernan go down the outside on 2 of his earlier rides and they ran better than expected and here he goes up the rails and gets mugged by Churchill. Makes no sense.
Report A_T September 9, 2017 7:04 PM BST
doubt Aidan's too happy with that race
Report Figgis September 9, 2017 7:07 PM BST
The York run turned out just to be a false dawn for Churchill, past his best. Decent run from Poet's Word but good to see Decorated Knight win even though I didn't have a penny on, reckon he was the horse closest to being a Gp1 runner amongst the rest.
Report brigust1 September 9, 2017 7:27 PM BST
Churchill was hampered and as shown in the last race coming wide is the place to be.
Report A_T September 9, 2017 7:31 PM BST
a little like last year when Almanzor and Found came wide
Report brigust1 September 9, 2017 7:32 PM BST
Exactly A_T. Not really acceptable on a Group 1 track if you ask me.
Report impossible123 September 9, 2017 10:28 PM BST
In this meeting last year I believe the winner of the Irish Champion and Matron came up the middle of the course eg Almanzor (wide) along with Found whereas Minding (rails); Alice Springs (wide) whereas Persuasive (rails).
Report roadrunner46 September 10, 2017 12:46 AM BST
excellent info about the winner and runner up guys, didn't click today for me, so didnt take advantage of the new
angles discussed on the thread.
Report twonky September 10, 2017 8:47 AM BST
Must confess to having finally got Decorated Hero right at the 4th time of asking this season, firstly by eliminating the 3yos and finally realising that he was running under his ideal conditions of chasing a fast pace, 2nd run back off a break and on a course with a shortish run in, which was against him at sandown and York, but effective here and at ascot behind highland reel, should imagine Ascot again will be his next race, but I'd be against him off a 5/6 week break.

Yet again, we saw what a poor bunch of middle distance 3yos we have this season, no doubt excuses will be made, but the facts speak for themselves. Only 2 horses to take out of the race..Poets World who no doubt will be better over 12f and Eminent..As I said about Eminent on another thread, he looks like a horse that needs to be fresh or have a 5 week or more break to be at his best..he'll have those conditions at Ascot in October, but could be vulnerable as he's been on the go since the Craven..the prix Ganay at longchamp in May would be an obvious race.

As for the ratings, taking a line through Decorated heroes Ascot 2nd, where do the ratings guys put Highland Reel and more pertinently, Ulysses, whom finished behind DH at Ascot but has twice thrashed him since?
Report brigust1 September 10, 2017 9:06 AM BST
WD Twonky. It's great when we go back through a winner and find the reasons why he won. Personally having listened to Roger Charlton when he was interviewed on Friday he hoped he would be 3rd or 4th and he wanted fast ground. I think there was a huge track bias and the commentator said he was surprised they stayed by the rails because that was the slowest ground. Added to that both Churchill and Cliffs of Moher were trapped behind a wall of horses and asking horses to start to quicken when going uphill can be an unrewarding task. I don't think I will trust the form too much but your theory about DH certainly sounds like a good one.
Report impossible123 September 12, 2017 8:36 PM BST
Is AOB serious about Churchill tackling the English equivalent at Ascot next month after his dismal run here? Could AOB swap Churchill with Winter ie Churchill tackling the QE2 instead? Then AOB could have two live wires...he's still on schedule for beating/equalling Bobby Frankel's most Gp 1 wins in a season.
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