Horse Antepost
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Fantastic field at the overnight stage but with plenty of rain forecast can see this cutting up badly with most of the market leaders preferring decent ground.
Tempted to lump on Nezwaah e/w but worried there will only be two places come the off so I've taken a punt on Sobetsu @ 16/1 and Hydraenga @ 40/1
Tempted to lump on Nezwaah e/w but worried there will only be two places come the off so I've taken a punt on Sobetsu @ 16/1 and Hydraenga @ 40/1
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The fav Winter is very short. Is she as clinical in soft/heavy going as she is on good/good to firm? If not, could AOB do a Churchill with Winter? Hope not for her antepost backers.
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Winter has to be a lay on heavy going over 10f - very doubtful stayer for me. A shame Churchill didn't run today as felt he was a monumental lay on the ground. No doubt AOB will now pull Winter out too.
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As with the Sussex the rain has put me off the race. I am a huge fan of Winter but only having a minor interest on Sobetsu.
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So Mi Dar was right up there with Minding last season - she was only 9/4 against Minding for the Oaks before being withdrawn thro' injury.
Is Winter as good as Minding? Certainly not in my book, and over 10f against proven seasoned fillies eg So Mi Dar and Queens Trust I shall look elsewhere; the ground is an unknown too, but I'd like her to run. |
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Looking at the time of the first race today I can't see how it can be riding any slower than good to soft on the round course. Winter has already won on such ground at the Curragh. Her stamina over this trip isn't proven but most people agree that she looks likely to stay. Since the 1000 Guineas she hasn't really had a hard race so I'd expect more in the tank. I have her 11lbs ahead of the opposition, with the next best being her own stablemate. There is no proof that So Mi Dar has trained on but even if she has and allowing for 'normal' improvement I'd have Winter well ahead on these terms. So Mi Dar could be one of those fillies like Gosden's The Fugue who makes more than normal improvement from 3 to 4 but it's a complete guess at the moment. Other than that happening I think Winter only needs to run to form to win and the price is pretty generous for that to happen so I've backed her.
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You've been in vintage form this season, Figgis, and I'm loath to oppose you, but I'm prepared to bet against Winter at this trip on this ground. I noted she was much more laboured last time out than in Ireland, which could have been the ground or the slower pace of the race, but could also have been a sign she was starting to feel the effects of some tough races. I've thought that before about O'Brien's horses and been proved wrong in midsummer, but the combination of the new trip and what I see as genuinely soft ground encourage me to look elsewhere. Queen's Trust is clearly not fancied at all, drifting wildly in the market, but I think she'll run very well. Sobetsu might well have the run of the race and has her ideal conditions with room for improvement. I'm not sure about So Mi Dar first time out in a small field - she is likely to be keen. Blond Me is underrated in the market being unexposed at this trip. I wouldn't fancy Hydrangea but she'll be onside as I'm laying the fav.
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I'm with Figgis in this race and think Winter will take all the beating, even more so with 3 good challengers now non-runners. I'm not concerned with the ground at all, shes ran on yielding in Ireland and although the trip is an unknown, she's a Galileo filly and relaxed in her races; I don't see any problem. I think her stablemate Hydrangea is the main danger. Good luck to all that play.
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could also have been a sign she was starting to feel the effects of some tough races
Yes, that's the issue I am more wary of than anything else. Contrary to what seemed the popular opinion I had her running just below her Guineas form at the Curragh, whereas I think the general consensus was she'd improved. I also have her running below her very best at Ascot. I've taken the view that she probably could've equalled her Newmarket form if really pushed and the fact that she didn't need to bodes well for future races, but yes it's entirely possible that she peaked in the Guineas. what I see as genuinely soft ground The time for the Richmond confuses the issue as it's more of a soft ground time than the first race. Either the straight is riding softer today or the ground is cutting up more, with more rain around. Your points are all valid Howellsy, but even with those doubts I think the value is firmly with the backer in this cae, although I see her price has shortened since earlier so not as much value now. |
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*in this case
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I'm with Figgs as well, all aboard the Winter train!!!
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Though tiny saver on Hydrangea to win my stake on Winter back, purely because we've all seen this happen with Aiden before! But cooooome on Winter
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If So Mi Dar needs the outing and distance and ground against Winter Sobetsu could be the main beneficiary, I believe. But SMD for me before Winter.
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Winter is quite keen.
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Class filly, she did it well
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She won despite, could she be up in trip to 12f? She'd stay as well.
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Well done Figgis and Andrew - it sometimes doesn't occur to me until 2 furlongs out that I have very little running for me.
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Could Winter go for the Yorkshire Oaks if Seventh Heaven is absent? She'd give Enable a run for the money.
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^^^ what odds do you want ?
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Ta Howellsy. You were right about Blond Me being underrated in the market.
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wd figgis and winners, what did you make of the performance of winter on that ground, looked a weak race, with most of them with
no group 1 form of note and ground against some of them. |
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I don't think the actual form amounts to much but the ground had slowed after the first race and they didn't go as fast early as they could have so it was always unlikely to see an impressive winner in those circumstances. The plus side is it was another race where Winter didn't have to run to peak form.
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