2018 2000 Guineas

I think Saxon Warrior is more a middle distance horse, even AOB has alluded to that. He might get the Derby trip but I'd expect him to more likely be aimed at the Champion, Eclipse and Juddmonte; presently Gustav Klimt is AOB's main hope, I believe.

Are you suggesting that they will decide to bypass the Derby due to stamina concerns?

I'd expect him to more likely be aimed at the Champion, Eclipse and Juddmonte

Seriously?

No, I'm not saying that. I think Saxon Warrior (SW) is more likely to run in the Derby than Churchill, however, will he be AOB's no 1 for the race?; 5/1 is extremely short for the race. I cannot see SW winning the Guineas, but I do like the run of The Pentagon (TP) in the RP on unsuitable ground; TP will be my horse for the Derby.

Figgis 28 Oct 17 20:57
The Guineas seems to be have been mentioned more as an afterthought due to Moore's comments, but he has shown a tendency recently to overstate how much speed these Coolmore horses have.

That is the way Coolmore want him to talk - always thinking about the stallion book quotes.
At least they haven't mentioned the July Cup............. yet!!!!

ive read the comments on the thread, saxon warrior has good looking profile, looks more a strong travelling type
than a speed horse, does look a good battler, as for gustav kilmt the dam danehill, has definitely got the right nick, does look a speedy type, suppose the jockey bookings will be revealing. i do think saxon warrior will improve alot, so would have a slight preference at this stage for (sw) 8/1 and 9/1 at the moment

Such is their strength in depth Coolmore will probably house all five classic winners but my only bets in the race so far are on Elarqam at 20/1 both singly and in a treble with BVD at 4/1 and September for the Oaks at 20/1.

He looked very good on both starts despite being green.

Sorry, due to an over-sight I did not notice this thread.

I see Elarqam is now 2nd fav and has shortened up considerably in the last week or so - have there been positive comments or has he been tipped by somebody influential?

Any news from AOB on Gustav Klimt, he has been a little weak on here, although for no volume, heard nothing in months on his wellbeing, does anyone know how he has been getting on?

It's a bit of a concern. As you said not much money wanting to lay Gustav Klimt but nevertheless, not a good omen. I read somewhere AOB would not be perturbed if Saxon warrior and/or Gustav Klimt went straight to the Guineas.

Soon it will be the trials.

Usually straight after Cheltenham we get the PR bollax of a massive ante post gamble for the Guineas drawing in the unwary to back something they could have had double the price a week earlier. Not hear owt this year yet.

The sentiment seems to have changed for Gustav Klimt. He's been matched at 8.

There is i terview / stable tour with O’Brien in the Racing Post (behind the paywall). Presumably he has said something positive!

Not really Uncle! - I posted the relevant bit on the 1000gns thread.

i see saxon warrior going in as the shorty as i mentioned . the horse i would be concerned about is sacred life . not sure why when youve got "the best youve ever trained" you wanna come over here ? perhaps that says something ? we have kicked the french a bit recently maybe he thinks he can kick us ! if i had the top french miler id win the boussac then come over for the st james palace

With just over 5 weeks to the event the market is still fairly open with no significant movement for any of the principals; all seem to be  in good nick if reports about their well-being can be taken on trust.

Given the awful weather overvth3 last coup,e of months  I have been looking for a soft/heavy ground horse just in case it doesn't relent and the one horse who is screaming out to me is Sacred Life @ 28/1 on the exchange (20/1 at bookies). Even on good ground I’d fancy it strongly.

Three out of three in France last year and would probably be a Group 1 winner but for French breeders causing the abandonment of the big Saint Cloud fixture in October.

Obviously a risk he may stay in France but trainer said a month ago that the owner is keen on coming to Newmarket and watching his wins I think the Rowley mile will suit it better than the turns of Longchamp.
Iit were trained by Fabre it would be single figures.

ya i like sacred life too . i got in a fine mess in the lincoln antepost so i,m sticking to saxon and will have a win a bit bet on sacred life on the day as i dont want a non runner

I do not understand why Saxon Warrior isn't a short-priced favourite for the Guineas. What more could he have done? He's won a Group 1 in a very good time and promises bags of improvement.

A lot was made of Roaring Lion being an unlucky loser at Donny, but I'm having none of that. SW had won the race when RL tried to mug him, and he went and won it again. He might be a Derby horse, but I'm certain he's a Guineas horse.

By contrast, Expert Eye (poor run LTO) and Gustav Klimt (log lay off) are Group 2 winners with a lot to prove, and Elarqam has only won a Group 3 in a ho-hum time.

Pretty much everything I back at the moment is doubled-up with SW - and that includes his stablemate in the Run For The Roses.

Saxon Warrior is a class horse; he beat Roaring Lion on merit; he's also entered in the Dante.

Thanks for that insight I123 - what would we do without you.

al wukair 3rd, territories 2nd , french fifteen 2nd . if it gets there sacred life  will go close

prix djebel result will decide if he comes or not . either he,ll contract  in price or become a non - entity , depending on his performance so just had a little at 25.0

mystic wind . the answer regarding his price is he,s not performing like their previous winners on the gallops at this time . still a month to go , during that time they,ll crank him up and see what hes got . if he goes there ridden by moore at 6-1 ish then hes there no 1 , but , they think hes vulnerable . even so the crowd will back o,briens first string into sub 6-1 on the day imo . maybe they got nowt at sometime they will have a empty deck . maybe now ?

market wiseand  a month to go,i think mystic wind may have something regarding the price of the o,brien first string . i,ve reverted my betting and i,m now large on sacred life and saxon warrior will give me a little profit

Sacred Life 11/8 in the 1.50 at deauville today and then on to a possible cracking in the 2000. Hacks up here and the 20/1 won't last long.

Looks like that bubbles burst.

Gustav Klimt is entered for a 2000G trial at Leopardstown on saturday along with US Army Flag.

Lots of the horses at the head of the market have 10-12f pedigrees. Roaring Lion is very smart but has an obvious kink, SW looks a galloper not speedy. For me if Expert Eye had a genuine excuse for last time, and is therefore as good as he looked at Goodwood then he's worth a bet at 10/1+. Elarqam is very interesting as he looked so green in both runs last season yet still progressed and looked ''potential'' Group 1. He's going to improve for the extra furlong that's for sure. Those two are my bets.

woopsy sacred life , well what a duck egg hes still a 2yo , zero scope . very hard to believe he can do anything now . on the plus side hes gonna be well balanced , fit and appreciate better ground , but , thats grabbing for a twig as i fall off the cliff !

i,m still with mystic though , in regards to saxons price i think he would be much shorter if considered a good thing . maybe theres nothing coming out the pack and this is a weak crop

Decent start for GV - not scintillating by any means but should improve a lot so I’m surprised he is still 6/1 given his connections.
I personally think the market vibes over the last month or so suggest Saxon Warrior won’t turn up, though either way Ryan Moore looks sure to in Kentucky.

GV = Gustav Klimt.

Considering the tacky ground which was far from ideal Gustav Klimt (GK) managed to quicken up for a cosy win going away. Only 6 (here) now from 10 and jfav with Saxon Warrior (SW) with most bookies; SW, Elarqam and Expert Eye (EE) are going straight to this race but Roaring Lion is running in the Craven next thursday at Newmarket.

on the gallops at ballydoyle they know the numbers . non are exciting them , odds suggest they dont have the guineas winner this year . i,ve got a get out of jail  on saxon . truth be told i wish i left this market alone as 100 squid invested and if sw or r.lion win i get between 80-160 plus my money back . i,ve made a mess of this after plunging for the runt sacred life

About the only horse who is strong in the market is Roaring Lion - he's already 4/7 for the Craven so unless he wins incredibly impressively I'm not sure it will tell us a whole lot.
I'd have expected one of GK or SW to be much shorter but as has been suggested Ballydoyle don't really confident about either of them.

You would have thought all this uncertainty would mean the opposition would be shortening but Expert Eye and Elarqaam were both very easy to back at thr weekend (matched at around 13/1).
Then you have Bolgers Verbal Dexterity at 20 and basically 50/1 bar. Jim Bolger is adamant that the horse was massively below par in the Racing Post (still only beaten 4l) and has reported the horse in good health and on course for Newmarket so given his good record I have had a bit of 20 as a cover for my many Elaarqam bets.

the press is saying today that r . moore will be riding in kentucky on guineas day (mendelsohhn ) so i suspect the crew will be with him thus explaining the RELATIVE weakness in their prices . not to say they wont have the winner , but , its not the priority . as they arent large breeding wise in usa and its the biggest market it sounds like a allin on the kentucky

verbal dexterity showed a good attitude , my worry would be the high head carriage . knowing what i do now regarding the coolmore clan (kentucky) he looks like the no.1 danger to rl

hes also too big pricewise . bolger knows he wouldnt be 20 odd . bare in mind he would know that ballydoyle is off to kentucky and hes still 20 ish . no its rl bar mishap

ok i think this enigma has unravelled itself .

I don't think VD has looked very classy in his races -  he's always off the bridle a long way out and needs plenty of stoking.
Even though I backed him at 20 I'll be dissapointed if there isn't something better in the race - he's gone back out to 24 now.

If you're a Roaring Lion backer you would hope he does not leave the Guineas behind today like Kingman did after a big effort in his trial. That said, you could probably argue James Doyle kicked for home too soon on Kingman and he was an unlucky loser.

It really is about time Gosden won the Guineas. For a trainer of his success it's a surprise he's not had a few winners.

Amazed Masar is still 7/1 - unless he has left the Guineas behind in the Craven he should surely be favourite. Only danger I can see is Elarqam but think he’ll get going to late to catch him.
He even looks exactly like Haafhd.

I usually disregard the Craven winner at a stroke, but Masar deserves serious consideration, as the market now implies, despite a profile which would surely be unique amongst Guineas winners in having been beaten twice by fillies. His bizarre career began with a hugely creditable win over 6f at Goodwood. With so many sprinting sires around, it is becoming increasingly rare for any half decent 6f maiden to be won by a miling or staying sire, and this was a good maiden in which the group class Invincible Army was second. It was disappointing he got beaten at Ascot but both fillies were receiving 5lbs and both went on to prove themselves group 2 fillies, so perhaps he can be forgiven that defeat. Fwiw, he earned the same rpr as Churchill in the same race, second start both. Masar's Sandown win after a break was unspectacular and the time was ordinary for a colt on 3rd start. It's hard to take an especially positive view of the form, but he was now 2/3 and progressive. A month later, he produced a battling performance in a group 1, a stirring duel with Olmedo ending with both being passed by Happily, another filly. My ratings aren't so good on French races but the rprs said it was another step forward, although again you would have expected a Guineas winner to have got the better of Olmedo, as 2 other colts have, even if we allow that they set it up for Happily who picked up the pieces late on. The two runs in foreign lands represented very strange placing of a potential Guineas candidate. If you can ignore those, then this colt has a not dissimilar profile to Galileo Gold - there or thereabouts at 2 without looking exceptional, placed in France. We then have his Craven romp, which was an improved time performance and on my watch just about good enough to be on the premises in an average or slowly run Guineas. I made it a similar time to Churchill and Galileo Gold, and only Saxon Warrior (and Roaring Lion) of his apparent rivals in the market have beaten it, in my view, on the clock, in the RP trophy.
So is there any reason why the Craven winner can't win the Guineas? Of course not. Haafhd did it, and Delegator travelled with the class of a GUineas winner before finding Sea The Stars too strong up the hill. Most Craven winners are already exposed as not quite good enough, or, like Eminent, still shy of group 1 conditioning. Masar has all the experience, the seasoning and the undoubted fitness and well being to be a serious candidate. In a normal year I'd be saying he wasn't quite good enough, but this year nothing has stated a better case so far with the possible exception of Gustav Klimt. My one issue with Masar is that he will have to track other horses in the Guineas, as trying to lead the Ballydoyle pacemakers will be suicidal. He will therefore have to settle, but it it not as if he has always led.
Finally, at the risk of sounding like Mordin used to, horses in the top 6 of the market who have won at 6f at 2 and are by genuine miling (or further) sires had around a 50% strike rate last I looked.
In conclusion, Masar has done enough to suggest to me that he will be in the first 3 in the Guineas. Hopefully others will join me in discussing the claims of his rivals in subsequent posts.

Interesting post Howellsy.

As well as looking exactly like Haafhd his form is similar. Haafhd was also beaten on his final two starts as a 2y.o.

The only negatives will be if he had a harder race than it looked, or if Ballydoyle manage to ruin his race by running some spoilers - though I can't see too many options for them.

The market is now very strong on GK and Saxon Warrior is so weak he has to be a doubtful runner, as I suggetsed a few weeks back.
I just haven't been excited by GK's performances and it's just his breeding and connections (important as they are) that has him at the head of the market. He is certainly open to more improvement than Masar though. I backed him to small money at 6/1 after his reappearance and so it wouldn't be a disaster if he won.

Expert Eye is drifting like a barge for the Greenham and I just can't have him on breeding anyway.

That just leaves Elarqam who is still my biggest winner simply because I backed him at such big prices last summer/autumn (life changing sum if September wins the Oaks as well!!) but I have gone in quite large on Masar at 7/1 as well.

Knowing my luck we will have another Night Of Thunder shocker!!

Yes uncle, Gustav Klimt is an interesting one as I'm not by any means sure he's always been top of O'Brien's list. In July he went for the Superlative (not a race he's thrown his best horses at over the years), whereas The Pentagon went for the Tyros, which has usually been the race of choice for the top dog. Klimt won it in the style of a real fighter with a will to win, although it may be that he was the architect of his own trouble, as he was possibly tapped for toe as they quickened, which at the time made me doubt his Guineas credentials as they were hardly top notchers in opposition, but I have to say I was impressed with the way he prepped last week, settling nicely in the rear and picking up a race fit, group-class soft ground horse, Imaging, in good style with plenty to spare. With four starts behind him, and now race fit, I agree he must have more improvement in him than Masar.

Without doubt, the sexiest candidate is Elarqam, on pedigree, and on the basis of being unbeaten after 2 starts, the second of which was a group 3 which he won comfortably, the form solid enough, and the time for me well above average for a colt on 2nd start (2 lbs below Masar's Craven). My worry about the horse is that he seems under-seasoned for the Guineas. His running style looked a bit ungainly to me lto, very sweaty and the type who might be keen if held up in behind. He was strong up the hill, though, and if he has made significant improvement and has had a good Spring he will be right up there if amenable to restraint early on. Very exciting colt.

I've not had any bets on the classics so far as I'm only now getting into it again after a busy time.

All the votes are in and counted.

Gustav Klimt the winner of the guineas.

in the 1980s my dad used to tell me a lot of horses didnt train on from 2 to 3 . this has never been a factor in my analysis until this year , i do feel saxon wont even go , lion looks like hes gonna go to chantilly , sacred life a runt . i,ve done my 100 squid on this i reckon . i not bitter ,but , i cant have another pound till race day . acey you,ve got a lot of input on this thread howellsy in particular . i hope it gives you some faith in the forum and best of luck

not commented on this thread for a while but with only 12 days to go, surely there is a possibility that Saxon Warrior is targeted at the derby and Gustav is the miler. With Ryan Moore heading for the US they might only run a couple at Newmarket. Some of the 10.5 on SW must relate to the chance of him not running, regardless of the poor run of Roaring lion last week.

Was running the numbers and AOB has run between 1-3 horses in the 2000 Guineas in the last 8 years, he had the following runners as the stable's apparent number 1:
2010 St Nicholas Abbey best of the AOB three when 6th (went off even money fav)
2011 Roderick Occoner, hammered in Frankels guineas (8/1)
2012 Camelot WON (went off 15/8)
2013 Christforo Columbo best of his in 5th when Dawn approach ran (8/1)
2014 Australia finished 3rd in a hot guineas, could have been considered slightly unlucky (5/2 and well backed on the day)
2015 Gleneagles WON (went off 4/1) ran two with old man river finishing last (6/1)
2016 Air force Blues finished 12th when a very well backed fav (went off 4/5 and backed on the day)
2017 Churchill WON (6/4 Fav), AOB ran 3 on the day.

just on that sample makes me think that with this particular race, and i say this race rather than all races, that Coolmore tend to know what they have and what they have as Number 1 is likely to go very close if its fancied (two years in the sample there were exceptional winners in Frankel and Dawn approach) AOB won 3 of the other 5.

If Gustav Klimt was the stables number 1 and Saxon withdrawn i would expect him to go off more like 6/4 than the current 5/2.

Uncle Puncle - "As well as looking exactly like Haafhd his form is similar. Haafhd was also beaten on his final two starts as a 2yo"

Good luck with Elarqam!   I am not on but I hope he wins.  I hope he proves as good as Haafhd, even though he looks nothing like him

Elarqam is very short on what he's done; a formline with Tip Two Win thro' Aqabah gives Gustav Klimt the edge. But Elarqam does have good pedigree and could be exceptional. Similarly, Masar: a fit horse, and but beat a runner rated below a 100 with Roaring Lion only 80% race fit. However, Masar was beaten by AOB's Happily and September.

Expert Eye was doing his best racing at the finish nevertheless, the runners of that race finished in a heap; another Emotionless ie visually impressive in his earlier races but overrated, in my opinion.

Unless Elarqam is truly an exceptional horse, Gustav Klimt is the one for me. The danger could be his stablemate Saxon Warrior, if he turns up.

Gustav Klimt : O.K if your on @ fancy prices but hes a shocking price @ present on what hes achieved to date. We know how much Aidens can come on for a run but he was hardly impressive on his comeback.
Saxon Warrior for me .But i will wait till raceday 4 obvious reasons

ELARQAM @ 6/1 to give Mark Johnston a long awaited win in this race. I like horses who were short on first race course run, means they thought highly of the horse before he had even stood foot on a race course. In fact if you do a little calculation by dividing the debut run starting price by the field size, you will see that no less then 12 of the last 17 winners where less then 20% on their debut. Takes quite a few contenders out each year.

Without Parole has been scratched from the race!

If US Navy Flag runs I will have a small interest in him e/w . Track wont worry him and you can forget his last run .

Us Navy Flag?Hey Gaman? Without Parole  NRS

other than the different connections, I can think of no reason why MASAR isn't clear favourite for the 2000 guineas.

He's been by far the most visually impressive of any of the main contenders, when he won the Craven stakes.

Not happy with the draw for Elarqam or Masar. Hate it that Newmarket have the stalls on the stands side as it gives the rail runners a huge advantage when the cutaway finishes at the 2f mark - just watch last years race and all of last years back end group races - golden highway up the rail.

They used to have the stalls in the middle (Sea The Stars, Frankel etc) - why did they change it?

^Scrub that - a high draw is near the rail.

Would still prefer a level playing field with the stalls in the middle but I am not complaining, unless this year it turns out to be a nightmare.

any rain fall last night or any due today.

No idea about rain.
On Turftrax they had one furlong of the last 10f shown as "good".
Now they show six furlongs as "good".

thanks Kin.

Not a drop of rain. Good drying conditions. Can't be worse than good Saturday given forecast.

All the vibes seem bad for SW. However I think if he's anywhere near straight he'll take a good deal of beating. Nice draw and I think he could bully this field. Price of the fav is horrendous.

Mar 17, 2018 -- 12:20PM, roadrunner46 wrote:

ive read the comments on the thread, saxon warrior has good looking profile, looks more a strong travelling typethan a speed horse, does look a good battler, as for gustav kilmt the dam danehill, has definitely got the right nick, does look a speedy type, suppose the jockey bookings will be revealing. i do think saxon warrior will improve alot, so would have a slight preference at this stage for (sw) 8/1 and 9/1 at the moment

these prices are looking good now SW 8/1 and GK 9/1, very good antepost market this year for the guineas

Think both Gustav & Happily have found themselves favourite for the guineas literally by defaul, through injuries to Clemmie and other like Veraciously missing, then Gustav because SW is carrying a load of condition. Gustav won a Listed race on heavy lto and is 5/2. He should be 5/1.

In betting order, I have Gustav Klimt still in the could be anything bracket. The way the Superlative was run didn't reveal what he was really capable of but it was quite impressive how he overcame trouble in running. On the negative side, he made his debut as a weakish second fav and only just went off fav second time out. He was strongly backed for the Superlative but it seems this horse has never been regarded as highly as previous O'Brien winners. O'Brien's quote about finding out more about him following the Leopardstown win suggests the same. I'll happily pass at the price. I have Saxon Warrior with around 9lbs to find to be up to Guineas winning standard. Not impossible but no interest at all at the price. I don't think he'll be fast enough for a Guineas and would have more chance in the Derby. The manner of Masar's recent win was a complete surprise to me as I thought he was pretty ordinary and quite exposed. However, the time wasn't great, it appears the rest ran below form and the win might not be as good as it looked. If taken at face value it would put him up there with a reasonable chance but I really doubt him improving again on that. For me, the Craven win would put him amongst the lower rated winners of the race so again no interest to me at the price. Elarqam is another in the could be anything bracket, and with Johnston training it's another pass.

Next, for me, is the most likely winner . I didn't agree with all the stuff about Expert Eye being a probable superstar but I'm not looking for one here. I'm only looking for a horse capable of winning a typical Guineas, I think he's the most likely and his current price makes far more appeal now some of the hype has wore off. I would have to forgive him his Dewhurst disappointment, but it's obvious he was in no form that day and I have no problem disregarding that. I suppose he was disappointing again, to a lesser extent, at Newbury, but that was a muddling race run at an uneven pace and he was fresh first time out. I was still taken with him physically and he didn't appear to have gone backwards to my eye. Given his last two runs a lot has to be taken on trust, maybe he's already a spent force like so many horses that looked good as 2yos, but at the price I'm prepared to give him one more chance and he's a bet.

the master has returned! agree with all of that.

what's your fancy for the 1000 mate?

Ha ha, if only. Think the market has the right fav but she doesn't set a great standard. I'd make it 5/1 the field as I think she is vulnerable to an improver but I have no idea what that may be so no bet. Do you fancy one?

Great to see you back Figgis.

I just can’t have Acclamation siring a Guineas winner, but the market seems very positive and Stoute is not one to run a horse for the sake of it. I’ve actually backed him for the Commonwealth Cup @16/1.

Market on here suggest Saxon Warrior will go off favourite.

Yes uncle, even with my very limited knowledge of pedigrees the sire seems a bit unlikely. However, he looked every inch a miler to me at Goodwood so I'll always put racecourse evidence over breeding. The question is whether he's on the downturn, hopefully not.

Do you fancy one?

yes I'll have a bitter.

joking aside not really. although I recall at newmarket keiran fallon was sweet on the filly who won the nell gwynn, and he's quite close to the godolphin set-up i think. He tipped her up before the race as well.

think godolphin have better fire power in the opening classics that they have for years although we've seen this before and they've been run over by the ballymore juggernaut, be interesting to see if it's any different this time.

I've been backing him since the beginning of January, and I think we could see something special tomorrow.

The horse is Saxon Warrior, think he wins this and then does a demolition job in the derby.

Good luck all.

I have been waiting for this day since 27th August 2017, when SAXON WARRIOR cruised his way from first to last in a maiden race, to win with the jockey standing up in the saddle trying to get the colt to slow up.

Loads of posts from me on here, since August with the perfect race being the 2000 Guineas, given his pace c/w majority assessment that he is a Derby colt.

I've never watched Race Replays as mush as I have Saxon Warriors 3 runs.

Happy with jockey booking, as he rides each day, and on his debut win.

Absolutely hoping for the best, safe passage in the race, no hard luck story and the best colt wins.

Good luck SW.

a really unspiring betting heat this with some poor types heading the market...

i don't want anything to do with the top of the market as i haven't seen anything that has run quickly

anyway the one horse that has caught my eye and i believe is over priced is headway from william haggis's stable, he just looks a lot stonger to me this year and i just liked the way he went through the gears at lingfield and his juvenile form to be good enough to get in the mix...nothing really went right for him after ascot as the ground just wasn't what the horse would like and if the ground were to dry tomorrow i just feel he can shake up these horses heading the market and don't actually feel he has as much to find as the betting suggests

i really liked expert eye's return, he raced fresh with the rider but was educated at the same time, he came home well and for me is the only horse to have ever run fast between the horses running here and the price appears fair, he like headway would like drying ground

the one thing that really worries me here is the golden highway rail at newmarket and he along with the other horse are not ideally drawn however, we will see how it pans out and not a big betting heat for me

deepingfox
I have been waiting for this day since 27th August 2017, when SAXON WARRIOR cruised his way from first to last in a maiden race, to win with the jockey standing up in the saddle trying to get the colt to slow up.

We are unable to offer you the position of out "comments in running" writer.
Many thanks for your application. 

*our

Headway at 35 and Nebo at 170 for me for an interest.
Gustav Klimt, Saxon Warrior, Elarqam not typical 2000 Guineas form.
Masar ran well in the Breeders Cup and again in his prep race.  If he repeats that he will go close.

Expert Eye at 16/1 for the Commonwealth Cup is worth an interest. He could well be better back over a fast run 6 furlongs.

For the sake of it I will back James Garfield . He might have been unlucky at Del Mar and Invincible Army did his form no harm .

I don't believe in all this long-term betting rubbish. If people say they've been backing this horse since january, or last year or whatever, to me it says more about their desperation to get a huge gambling win rather than their objectivity about a particular race.

for me, the closer to the race you get the more factors that come into play that enable you to analyse a race much more clearly. I have no idea who these people are who claim they can forecast that saxon warrior can win the 2000 guineas in january, or even worse claim they can predict with september they can forecast who can win the oaks many months in advance. for me all these thoughts are trying to be too clever, how the hell can you predict the winner of a race many months in advance i have absolutely no idea, but that's the delusion of ante-post betting i guess.

Gustav Klimt: unexposed, race fit horse whose time at Leopardstown might just be very good - certainly compared with the fillies. Assuming O'Brien's pair ran up to their 2yo form, his time makes him the equal of anything the others have shown on my clock - but of course I can't be sure about it. It's just possible Imaging is a group 1-ish horse on soft ground, as Weld was talking in terms of the Irish Guineas. Klimt beat him with some ease. On the other hand, Imaging may have done too much too soon that day and been a sitting duck, or he might not be that good. Since it's impossible to gauge this horse's form on conventional ratings, due to what happened in the Superlative (was he outpaced by plodders initially, hence his need for a Houdini act?), and the uncertainty about Imaging, we're guessing. It might be significant that Kenya, back in third, for whom there was money on the day, finished so far back. This is the problem with the Guineas for me - not quite enough information, whereas I always feel I can make a confident shout about the Derby - regardless of how the race pans out. He could just be a very good group 2 horse.

Saxon Warrior: interesting to see how the market goes late on. I can't believe they would be bringing him here unless confident he was fit enough and quick enough to be there or thereabouts. I usually pour scorn on 8f 2yo horses, RP winners etc as Guineas types, but this colt might be different. He chucked aside solid group 2/3 horses in the Beresford, leading 2 out, and dominated what looked a very good renewal of the RP, leading there 2 out as well. It did look as if Roaring Lion had more basic speed, but that colt had already been tested against better opposition and when Saxon got the message he did battle back well, in what I made a well above average time, well up to average Guineas winning standard. He also has more scope for improvement than most after just 3 starts. I make him the class horse in the race so the question is how suited he will be to the Guineas mile on good ground, and my fairly cursory look at Deep Impact's top ten progeny found two colts with form at the distance. The dam side is stained by horses who didn't seem to train on, and O'Brien clearly doesn't always know if his horses have done so (Air Force Blue etc). I suspect he will run an Australia-type race, which would be good enough to win most renewals. He might be one of those cases of the shorter he gets in the betting pre-race, the more value he becomes, as the lads pile on, but ultimately, there is a question that needs answering, which wasn't the case for me with Gleneagles or Churchill.

Elarqam: I didn't like the first few furlongs of his group 3 win. He looked ungainly, green, and had clearly been sweating badly pre-race. I would have liked to have seen him in a trial, settling behind horses. I suspect he's as talented a runner as anything here but is he a racer yet? That's perhaps the most under-rated thing about O'Brien's horses - they hardly ever fail to settle. A big step up required but a colt of this type could easily make a stone or more progress between 2nd and 3rd start, and this might be run to suit prominent horses. O'Brien doesn't seem to have the tactical options of last year. Niggling doubts about this horse, compounded by connections apparent conviction he wants further. I think settling, not speed, will be the issue. I suspect the aforementioned pair will be more streetwise.

Masar: the most likely of the front four to run to an average Guineas winning standard but I can't help feeling at least one of the other 3 will improve past him. However, with few obvious front runners and a draw on the stands' rail, he could well get the run of it. Any tailwind would be even better for him. I just feel something will do him for class/speed in the end.

Of the outsiders, there were 2 I found interesting enough last weekend to back at big prices to small stakes (my only bets so far): Headway and Raid. Both are by Havana Gold, who won over a mile at 2 and won the Jean Prat at 3, yet both had the speed to win at 6f at 2. I have always liked the COventry as a Guineas trial for non sprint bred horses, and Headway might just find today's conditions up his street, although since the decs I have started to think this won't be a fiercely run Guineas suiting a Makfi type ride. Thus my very slight interest in Raid has faded slightly, as I felt he might just be buried out the back and come late past tiring horses. His unexposed profile has something of Night of Thunder and Makfi about it, and he's an interesting runner.

I can't have Expert Eye. I think he won a slowly run Vintage by dint of superior speed. The fact he was so short for the Dewhurst remains notable, but I hate sprint- bred horses for the Guineas. Not even Kingman managed it.

1. Saxon Warrior
2. Gustav Klimt
3. Masar / Elarqam / Raid dead heat....

thats the whole point of antepost betting is to form an opinion on limited evidence and form and get a good
price, hope your selection makes the race, depending on how much you get on and how well you have done attaining a good price come race day, you will have more options to lay off most of your stake and maybe
add another horse. its a no brainer.

no I understand the concept of ante-post betting, but to me where it doesn't pay is when you get over confident and put too much on.

from my own experience you get a much better feeling of what's going to happen say on the week or even the day of the race/ football match/ golf tournament.

the idea that you can be that confident when it's something that's months in advance, and you can't even be sure that they are going to be there, seems bonkers to me.

I notice a lot of people on here and other forums have been bullish on september for the oaks ("I've been backing here every day since september, etc") but when you look at it she's on the small side, there's all these unexposed/unraced fillies yet to come out, I mean how on earth can she be some banker bet?

good write up howellsy i think this really is tricky tbh...surprised you had expert eye's goodwood race as slowly run, i thought they went a nice even gallop and he just sauntered into it and his final time was decent...all the talk of him being a sprinter i find difficult to understand even though he is by acclamation, until he learns to settle he is never going to reach his full potential at any trip, my worry for him today is the draw and getting cover i have zero doubt he is the best of these but can you forgive him his last 2 races, we will know a whole lot more later

I can't have Expert Eye. I think he won a slowly run Vintage by dint of superior speed

surprised you had expert eye's goodwood race as slowly run, i thought they went a nice even gallop and he just sauntered into it and his final time was decent

I can see where Howellsy is coming from about the Vintage not seeming to be run quick, as using one going allowance for the whole Goodwood card would result in a moderate time for the race. However I agree with Harry that it was in fact a really decent time performance. Everything else about that race tells me that it was well run and in my view using one going allowance for the whole card in this instance gives a bum steer.

I watched a very insightful 2000 Guineas preview on Youtube a few minutes ago.
Favourites have a good record.
Aidan O'Brien has a good record.
He might also have mentioned that the race will be run at Newmarket this year.

You're right, guys, I shouldn't have said it was a slowly run Vintage - I think what I meant was that it was a cheap figure, the last furlong under no pressure and some of the horses in behind such as James Garfield, not running up to their best times so clearly under-performing. If he proves to be a miler then, yes, I could see why he might win this today, but he's got a lot to prove for me even at the prices.

Oldest to youngest

Saxon Warrior - 1205 days
Expert Eye - 1190 days
Elarqam - 1167 days
Cardsharp - 1159 days
Roaring Lion  - 1151 days
Raid - 1149 days
Headway - 1148 days
Murillo - 1140 days
James Garfield - 1138 days
Gustav Klimt - 1134 days
Rajasinghe - 1131 days
Masar - 1115 days
Nebo - 1099 days
Tip Two Win - 1089 days

Expert Eye no confidence in the market and nowhere near good enough. Well done to Saxon Warrior backers, particularly deepingfox who I remember saying SW was a possible Guineas winner early on, you saw something I couldn't. The time/performance looks a few pounds below an average Guineas but still very good for a horse that should be suited to the Derby trip.

would be suited to Epsom thou figgis ?

Well done deepingfox - great shout. Shame antepost betting is only for mugs.

Elarqam ran like I expected, as if it was just a bit too much too soon but if he comes out of it sound (be did take a false step about 1 1/2f out) then the Irish Guineas at the Curragh or the St James Palace should suit him really well and I'll be looking to load up on him. Can't see him being a Derby horse as he won't handle Epsom.

Hopefully it all bodes well for the duaghter of Deep Impact in the Oaks.

it was the way he out battled roaring lion for me, showed their was a lot more left in the tank and with
the pedigree and connections and a strong possibility of improvement, as for the others hadnt proved nothing
on the track apart from the possibility of potential. wd backers

Fashion Fever, not sure if it was Vincent O'Brien who once said if they're fast enough they'll be ok with the Epsom track, but whoever it was it's something I've always believed in. I think some horses win the Guineas without really improving from 2 to 3 and then there's a danger they'll go backwards, but by my early reckoning I'd say Roaring Lion ran pretty much to his best and SW has improved around 6lbs. For me, the only thing that would stop him being very hard to beat at Epsom would be if the Guineas takes a lot out of him.

0.4 seconds faster than Symbolization, who is rated 100, carrying 7lb less. For what it's worth.

Many thanks Figgis, and Uncle, for the kind comments.

I love Ante Post punting, as Ive spent a lifetime watching live and on tv and replays, especially 2yo maiden races with a view to classics.

I knew as soon as I watched Saxon Warrior win live on ATR that this horse was my 2000 Guineas bet.

I've never felt like that before, and as soon as the prices came out the day after his debut at 33s (Paddy Power) and 25/1 (Stan James)  I took them, and again at 20/1 and 16/1.

This is not in my nature, usually one bet is plenty at long odds.

I've argued he was a Guineas horse from the outset, and I cannot express my delight to see the race run and won today.

I will probably never have this feeling again, and it work out to well, but to have it once, and get it right will be something that I never forget.

Great to have you back Figgis. Another misjudgement on a monumental scale. You know nothing.

Que?

My Ante Post life is complete,

Written on day of Saxon Warrior,s last to first Maiden win, it seems I was besotted from the start,

deepingfox 27 Aug 17 21:38 Joined: 10 Jun 01 | Topic/replies: 618 | Blogger: deepingfox's blog
"Wow. Watched SAXON WARRIOR's debut last to first win, over and over again. Checked through breeding, and could be Guineas and Derby type on that. However looking at the burst of speed to sweep through with jockeys hands more than full at the end imo he is defo the type for Group 1 2yo 1 mile races plus a Newmarket 2000 Guineas run. Possibly Beresford then Racing Post Trophy at season end."