Horse Antepost
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If Limato runs to his best then he wins. Afterwards the price would look a gift for a Gp1 horse running against Gp2/Gp3 opposition. Going into the race, however, Limato still hasn't shown he's as good as he was last year. It's difficult to know how close to his best he was last time as the race wasn't run at a true gallop. Maybe he was inconvenienced but it's also possible he finished so close because it wasn't a true test. That considered I think his price is about right so no value. I expected Spirit of Valor to be a bit shorter here. His run in the Jersey Stakes was a complete surprise to me and the market but it was run in a fast time and appeared to be no 'fluke'. He followed up last time at the Curragh, setting just a fair gallop and didn't need to run to his Jersey form to win. He also looked to do it pretty comfortably to my eyes so hopefully there should be more in the tank. He's probably weak here due to his improved form being put down to the firmer ground, whereas it's a bit slower here. I make it no worse than good though and don't see why that should be a problem. If he runs to form he has a great chance of grabbing a place and could even win if Limato isn't the horse he was, so I think he's a fair each way bet.
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I'm going with Limato Figgis. I think the price more than compensates for your valid doubts about whether he's the same horse this season. I think he ran as well as was likely in the July Cup given the way it was run. I think he could outclass these over this trip. Your pick is a very progressive type but the 3lb penalty is not ideal. There's every chance of trouble in running but I'm happy to give Limato a chance at these odds against this level of opposition.
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Well at least you did better than me Howellsy. No excuse for SoV, looks like he's past his best now.
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Not the ideal Goodwood ride for Limato, three wide, but would have still probably won at his best so I have to conclude he has regressed this season, and on reflection perhaps he's not the sort to find much under pressure if it gets tight - most of his wins have been easy ones. Couldn't have fancied the winner for this one but has been a good horse at this sort of level.
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As for the future, apart from Limato still looking one to oppose, I think the only thing to take from the race is the time comparison with the visually impressive Expert Eye. He'll need to improve considerably on that to be a true Guineas contender, maybe he can, but he's probably going to be overrated in the market wherever he goes next.
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Figgis, I make it a very respectable time for a 2nd time juvenile - given normal improvement I'd expect him to be running a Dewhurst winning time next start. Best Vintage speed figure for many a year.
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Howellsy, it's difficult to believe Breton Rock improved today so I've rated him close to his best but I'd expect a Gp1 2yo to run a bit quicker than the .35 sec Expert Eye ran faster than Breton Rock, even allowing for the 4lbs wfa expects him to improve between now and the Dewhurst. Now the whole card has been run, however, I'm pretty sure that the ground was getting quicker throughout the afternoon. It's definitely noticeable for the later races. I can't say for sure it slowed between the second and third race but I'd estimate that it did so have now allowed for that and have rated those behind Expert Eye up to previous form. He's better than I first thought but I still think Expert Eye needs to improve a good 10-11lbs to be an average Guineas winner. He did do it impressively and could be better than the bare form but he's going to be massively hyped after this race and for me he needs to improve to live up to that.
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I'll try that again, the .35 sec Expert Eye ran slower than Breton Rock, carrying 2lbs less.
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We're going to have to disagree on the time, Figgis. I make it 3 lbs slower than Kingman did on debut, for example, so not exceptional for a 2nd timer, but likely to be very near the top of the pecking order. For me it's all about how he progresses. I think English colts are sometimes at a disadvantage in the Dewhurst in running against Irish colts who have been toughened up by running in one or two more group races including the National. Nevertheless, I doubt we'll see too many better this side of the water. It's not just about the time - it's the way he went about it. Looks uncomplicated and seems to want it.
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To be fair to Limato, considering it was his 3rd run in 5 weeks, he ran very well, just failing in the last half furlong..don't think his trainers/ owners idea to run him was the smartest move considering a trip to France was his next intended call. Hopefully, he will now give that a miss and go to haydock with a 5 week break behind him.
Obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, the winner was back able and no I never. Was reading an American article last year about the benefits of not backing a horse that is running below its grade or class and it seemed to make a lot of sense..a close look at Brecon Beacons runs in group 2 races over 7f is pretty impressive really, so if you believe the American way of thinking, then BBs latest runs belove group 2 level are not surprising...would be good to hear what the time boys think of that theory. |
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Twonky, I think that can happen sometimes for various reasons. There are cases like the O'Brien yard, for instance, where the horses aren't always spot on fitness wise for the lower class races or aren't going to be ridden as vigorously as they would when up in class. Sometimes a horse needs a faster pace that it might not get in the lower level race. Or sometimes, like yesterday with Limato, they're dropped in class in the hope it will get them back to winning ways, but often they continue to disappoint. For me, with Breton Rock yesterday he won what was a higher class race on paper, but in reality it didn't live up to that and was run in a Listed class time.
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H Candy reckoned he'd have run Limato too soon after the July Cup (15th July). Does the man ever learn? I thought he said something similar last season. Also, the ground was on the soft side on good, according to Atzeni, the rider of the winner Stradivarius in the Goodwood Cup.
Limato won the Foret in France over 7f last season, so he's a proven stayer over the distance; he even ran over 8f in America. |
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Without he King up and could very well be wrong, he was given a soft lead in the foret and tight turns in America may ave helped him to stay
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Sorry looking up
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Figgis, you mentioned higher class of race but didn't live up to it... Are you talking time wise and sectionals or how the race was run?
Looks like al the winners this week have come from off the pace, which, imo is surprising if the ground has been as bad as they say. As for the rest of the meeting its a no bet for me |
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Twonky, I mean time wise, hence there only being 1.5 lengths between first and seventh. I don't believe Breton Rock had to run much better than he had in previous races to win, as even though it was a stronger race in theory the main opposition didn't run to their best form. Just my opinion and I'm sure others will differ.
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