Sussex Stakes (2nd Aug)

Another fascinating renewal similar to last year where The Gurkha, Galileo Gold and Ribchester were duelling for the crown of best miler in Europe. This is the 2nd attempt by Ribchester who finished 3rd last yer but is having another scintillating season so far. Can Churchill atone for his below par performance at Ascot? No Barney Roy it seems but Ribchester is no pushover though.

This looks like a straight fight between Ribchester, the convincing winner of the Queen Anne, and Churchill, the shortie fav who disappointed in the St James's - Barney Roy has been ruled out by his trainer. The former is vying to be the best miler in Europe and the latter is on a redemption mission after a poor display at Royal Ascot; best prices are 11/10 and 9/4 respectively. Lancaster Bomber is also an intended runner.... running on merit or as a pacemaker (again)?

I always think of Lancaster as a runner, he might be doing the donkeywork in front, and this is especially competitive, but he keeps going and is very good and game. Though ground may be against him ..

Personally I think Churchill progression has flattened out, for the time being at least. Was no mystery at RA, just wasn't good enough - can happen with ultra-precocious 2yos esp from the Storm Cat line - we'll see but this is the first time I'll keep my powder on him dry

Ribchester is an absolute monster, I don't often get involved at even money but you won't find many better even money shots than this. I promise you, Churchill is nothing special

I don't see it being a big field, so less issues for Ribchester, as soon as he gets a clear run he's gone, got a great turn of foot

The ground is definitely slower than at Ascot - good to soft at the moment. Is Churchill a better horse than The Gurkha who beat Galileo Gold and Ribchester here last year? If so, could Churchill represent value? He'd be long odds-on had he not bombed out last time in the heat (apparently), according to his trainer.

What about Zelzal? A realistic chance as the odd suggests (9/1 here).

Ribchester is a cert

How far will Churchill win by? 2 clear perhaps.

Backed Ribchester last time but while he's a similar price here and I don't think the race will take any more winning I want to oppose him as I felt after his last win that he would probably regress from that. The problem is backing anything against him with confidence. On past form Churchill is obviously the most likely to capitalise if Ribchester is below par but he needs to put that latest poor effort behind him, he could do but the price isn't tempting enough. Zelzal needs to improve on his 3yo form, possible he can, but that can only be guessed at. Lightning Spear is the best of the rest but he's been below form on his latest two starts. There's a possibility that Ribchester could run a few pounds below here and still win if Churchill doesn't recapture earlier form and the others don't run competitively, but I'll take that risk and I've laid him.

After all the rain decided to basically give the race a swerve and for an interest backed Here Comes When place only x4.

I've watched Churchill's videos quite closely and I'm amazed people seem to be saying the rain is against him. If there is any excuse for his Ascot run, rather than regression, it had to have been the fast ground, and while he has form on ground described as GF, his best run by far for me was in the Irish Guineas when the emphasis on attrition and galloping seemed to suit him. Had this been a good to firm race, the horses racing tight to the far rail, I wouldn't have fancied Churchill, but I think conditions have come in his favour. Of course, one has to wonder whether the AScot run was the start of an irreversible decline, but I'm prepared to give him another chance on the soft ground. I can't believe more hasn't been made of Ribchester's hanging across the track in his last 2 starts. He's not been punished for this as he's not faced a rival of equal ability. Churchill at his best is much the same horse imo. The likelihood is they will be all over the track in the final furlong, and I can see Ribchester hanging across the track under pressure. I think Churchill might just outbattle him and for me he's worth a bet at the prices.

If one is a Churchill supporter and he'd won on soft going - soft at present - 2/1 for a dual Guineas winner could turn out to be a gift too difficult to ignore, I'd imagine. I hope he wins or finishes 2nd to Ribchester; Lancaster Bomber is unlikely to like this soft ground.

Missed opportunity for Churchill?

Makes Ribchester's task a whole lot easier on paper and he's proven with cut, although heavy ground could be a different proposition. I could trade out, he's easily the most likely winner now but at odds of just over 1/2 I'll let it ride as he could run more than just a few pounds below his best.

Well done Figgis. I didn't have the guts to oppose him when Churchill was ruled out but I had a feeling he'd do something wayward under pressure. I just couldn't see anything left in the race that could take advantage.

Cheers Howellsy. He did hang a little like you suggested, although I have no idea what Buick was up to and if I'd backed him I can't say I'd be happy with that ride. Well done Felt on the place.

Ground was deemed too atrocious for Churchill but ok for a firm ground specialist like Lancaster Bomber. Could Churchill have won it given the performance of Ribchester and/or his jock? A close call...

Fahey has indicated Ribchester could run in next sunday's Prix Jacques Le Marios at Deauville - a decision on thursday; Churchill is one of the entries and could start fav especially if Ribchester is absent.