July Cup (15th July)

HQ will be hit by a lot of rain in next 24hrs but it is then a drying forecast before risk of rain on Sat. If it's fast I would fancy Limato to win this race again. Ascot not his track and his draw there was a big disadvantage given the way the race developed. Actually did amazingly to get into a challenging position.

Caravaggio won at Ascot in 1.13.49; The Tin Man in 1.12.02. Caravaggio 6lbs better off but doesn't merit being 11-10 imho compared to the prices available on the Diamond Jubilee main protagonists.

Plenty of possible winners so the draw and going could be the deciding factor. Bet on the day unless you fancy laying Caravaggio.

True, the Diamond Jubilee winner recorded a faster time but Caravaggio reared up just before the stalls opened - I was surprised that he won after that. Caravaggio goes on any ground but cannot say the same for some of the others esp Limato. But correct 11/10 is skinny for this renewal and 1st time against his elders of quality.

Think CARRAVAGGIO will get beat - this is really competitive race no way a Even shot... main bet for me TASLEET 9/1... he is group 1 class ...

I do struggle with the view the Commonwealth was the race of the season and 3 top sprinters emerged. The Diamond Jubilee a much stronger sprint for me, backed up by the winning time. The other thing imp - Caravaggio reared up in the stalls but he didn't love any momentum or distance when he came out.

*lose

Caravaggio did not lose any momentum or distance when he came out - that maybe true - but no doubt unsettled him and used up energy that could be important and useful at the business end of a race esp this one; this race is not a walk-in-the-park race for Caravaggio - it is competitive but not overly, in my opinion.

Caravaggio is young and progressive and has always looked imperious in every race he's run and won. I was impressed with the ground he made up on Harry Angel from the 2f pole; his present price is skinny but he has always delivered. My main concern is not his ability but the monkey on his back, and I hope Moore does not do a "Rhododendron" ie complacent and over confident.

I have Caravaggio 3lbs clear of the rest at these weights on track form. But if the horse who had the previous fastest time always won there'd be no race betting. After watching Caravaggio's trial I thought he might go backwards from it but he didn't and ran right up to his 2yo best last time. I still see this as a problem going forward as he hasn't improved at all from last year in my view and he was all out last time. I reckon there's now an odds on chance he won't run to form next time and would estimate it at 1/2 that he doesn't run his race. I backed Harry Angel last time against him but he had a tough race and I'll be leaving him here. I also backed Tasleet last time and while I don't think he was given the best of rides I have that race as a bit below par for a Gp1. The winner, The Tin Man, is a horse with a fine turn of foot but so far he hasn't been able to produce it in a race run in a true Gp1 time. Last year's Champion Sprint Stakes wasn't run in a fast time. I wouldn't rule out him improving again but won't be backing him.

I thought Brando's Ayr Gold cup win last year was equal to a Gp2 performance. It wouldn't have taken a lot of improvement this year to see him take a Gp1 but he's been below par so far. He made hard work of winning the Abernant, which on paper he should've won comfortably. Then ran poor last time when bleeding. I think he could be a danger to all at a big price if getting his act together again but his recent form is a big worry. If Limato can return to last year's winning form he looks the most likely to benefit if Caravaggio runs below par. I have his Diamond Jubilee third 12lbs below his mark when winning this race last year so there's a fair bit of improvement needed but it was an encouraging run. I'll probably wait to see how Limato looks on the day but at the moment my intention is to lay Caravaggio.

Joined: 07 Sep 15 | Topic/replies: 4,321 | Blogger: impossible123's blog

I'm not a jockey basher


But you consistently question his ability and judgement to the exclusion of all other jockeys.

I wouldn't take too much notice of the times between the Commonwealth Cup and the Golden Jubilee because the former was run into a headwind.

What AOB runs could be important here because there is only one possible front runner and that is Harry Angel. He could have an uncontested easy lead with so many hold up horses. So if AOB hasn't planned for that he could make all. I'm sure that AOB will know this but a steady early pace will also not suit Limato. Last year they went fast early and he bolted up. I think Limato needs the right ground and an end to end gallop.

After what happened at Ascot I'm sure Clive Cox will be wary of his horse over racing and plan accordingly. If Harry Angel blasts off the dip may help him but if he takes them all along with him it will definitely help Limato and Caravaggio.
I'm considering a small bet on Limato because I backed him at Ascot and maybe a longer priced bet on Caravaggio in running. If AOB has something up his sleeve Moore need not sit too close and he may trade at a more sensible price than his SP, in running. If he doesn't and he wins it costs nothing and if he loses at least he was backed at a more sensible price.

Just to clarify this is the July course so it is not the same dip as the Rowley mile. There is a downhill run before initially before a final uphill furlong to the finish so this is not like Ascot and is much less demanding.

I did not realise there was a head wind in the running of the Commonwealth Cup. Also unlike you I'm no aficionado about the layout of racecourses.

AOB has 5 entered and one is Intelligence Cross, the horse that was ridden to try and light-up Harry Angel in the Commonwealth Cup up the rials, and I do not expect any different. I hope Moore will sit Caravaggio close to the pace but infront of Limato and no more than 2l behind Harry Angel if the latter takes the field along; Caravaggio shows he stays further than 6f, and so does Limato.

The Tin Man and Tasleet will no doubt come with a late run 2f or 1f out but Harry Angel must not be allowed a soft lead otherwise he could nick it whilst the other 3 principals were busy watching one another. I'm hoping the best horse will win, and no hard luck story for anyone; backed Limato last year but on Caravaggio this time at much bigger prices, fingers firmly crossed though.

backed Limato last year

Yet oddly only banged on about Air Force Blue on the July Cup thread

Also Limato went off at 9/2 last year, must've been quite a long time ago that Caravaggio was available at much bigger prices for this race

never liked limato as a group 1 sprinter, I do think the trainer has messed the horse around regarding the trips it has run over.
will be a race to saviour this year with the promising 3yos taking part as well.

I think that may be a bit unfair Roadrunner. Limato is a 6f older horse who needs top of the ground.

This is how difficult being his trainer is.

The first Gr1 race of the year is in Meydan so he went but unexpectedly it rained heavily.
The next 6f Gr1 race isn't until the Diamond Jubilee followed by the July Cup followed by the Sprint Cup at Haydock then the Champions Sprint at Ascot in October.
The last of these he is extremely unlikely to get his ground so if he is lucky he only has three races to target in the UK all season. There are no Gr1 races at 6f in France at all and at the Breeders Cup the 6f race is on dirt.

Last season he had to run Limato in the Lockinge to get a race into him before the Diamond Jubilee and to find out if he stayed a mile, even though the ground at Newbury in May is unlikely to be fast but he had to run to see if it would open more doors.
Then, would you believe it, it was too soft in the Diamond Jubilee so he never ran. To get a race into him before Haydock he ran him in the Nunthorpe over 5f which was too short and even then it rained, and guess what, he missed the Haydock Sprint because of soft ground so his season was now over.

All that was available was the Prix Foret over 7f and he won so he took him to the Breeders Cup and ran him in the only race he could which was over a mile, he finished 4th. His hands are completely tied most of the time and even now he may only just get his ground this coming Saturday.

At his ideal trip as a 6f sprinter Limato has run ten times, won six, finished placed in the Diamond Jubilee twice following not ideal preparations and been beaten twice on the wrong ground. Of his other six starts he has run three times over 7f winning a Gr2 and a Gr1 and being 2nd in a Gr1. He has run once over 5f and finished 2nd in a Gr1 and twice over a mile which is too far for him.

That is not a bad record with the available cards Henry has to play I think. With no more rain expected before Saturday you dismiss him at your peril.

He finished 6th at the Breeders Cup, not 4th.

you make a good point about the trainer, when reading the form and just looking at a horses profile, all that stuff about, they had to do this and that to get a run and whatever, just isn't apart of form reading for me. maybe that's essential regarding the top
class group races, that kind of thinking. requires too much brain energy for me.

It's too much for me as well RR. He never ran in the DJ twice it was the Commonwealth Cup and the Diamond Jubilee he was placed in. But it does highlight how difficult it can be if your horse is both trip and ground dependent.

Candy has always been a superb trainer of sprinters for me going back to the likes of Elbio. Limato set to do a Right Boy for me and win the July Cup 2 years running.

sorry, Makin trained Elbio. Just wrote that for you shrewdies to pounce on it

Th final decs are in: 10 have been declared; AOB running Caravaggio and Intelligence Cross only, drawn 2 and 3 respectively; the other major principals all stand their ground too.

And Limato drawn 1

Harry Angel is drawn 6 with Tasleet 5 and The Tin Man 10. Very possibly Intelligence Cross will race up with Harry Angel leaving a gap for Caravaggio and Limato on the inside (assuming the stalls are positioned accordingly) and Tasleet and The Tin Man on the outside; poor Harry Angel getting shot at from both sides late in the race, I'd think.

We know the draw and we know the ground should suit everyone. What we don't know is how the race will be run. The first 4.5 furlongs are downhill with a sharp gradient to the line. Looking at the draw I guess Intelligence Cross will go on with Caravaggio behind and Harry Angel upsides IC sharing the lead. I see little point in Kirby restraining HA because Caravaggio, the horse he will want to beat has plenty of pace. For this reason, on the faster track, I think Kirby will let him run. What happens next we don't know. If Kirby sits upsides IC keeping Caravaggio in behind Moore may have decisions to make because, if he does drop in, the other fast horses Tasleet, Limato and The Tin Man will not be letting him out any time soon. If Beggy pulls off the rails to let Caravaggio through there will be murder. If IC doesn't do what he did at Ascot and Caravaggio tracks HA the others will have to keep tabs and stay close and it will just be a straight fight.
In summary I think it will be a fast run race which will suit Limato, he must have a fast pace, and Caravaggio could get into trouble with the pack around him so he may trade a good deal better in running than his SP. My heart tells me to back Limato but my head tells me to back Caravaggio so I will be backing Limato with and without the favourite and Caravaggio at a few bigger prices in running. Good luck. Newmarket here we come.

this race has to be one of the strongest group 1 sprints, ive seen in the last 5 years to be run, with coolmoore seemingly running a spoiler again, if that one blocks in carravgio, looking forward to see how harry angel gets on in the race, hopefully gets out fast
and grabs the rail, harry angel might have to wait until next year to land a group 1 race. think the older horses will just have the
edge in this race, sprinters get better with age and are usually stronger. the 3 yos are making this a very interesting race.

goodluck just watching race for me

Brando is a big price considering his form with The Tin Man . You have to forgive his last run but 33/1 is tempting e/w.

And Caravaggio looks plenty short enough at 11/10.

Backed Caravaggio in win doubles and a treble with Enable and Mutakayyef but I think he could possibly be vulnerable over this sharper six furlongs and will also back Limato each way.

Caravaggio moves like a horse,with that knee action that suits a flatter track.

I suppose there's the chance of any race being run at a less than true pace but it's very rare for it to happen in this race. All the runnings this century have been run at a fast pace and the last time I can remember the pace probably affecting the result was all those years ago when Green Desert won, with Last Tycoon being given a uninspired ride from the back, and yes I backed Last Tycoon. So really I don't see it as something to concentrate on here and it's just a straightforward question of which will perform best on the day. In my view, apart from those occasional sprinters who are steadily improving most of them are unable to repeat their top efforts continuously more than two or three times at the most, unless they are so far ahead of the opposition that they are able to win comfortably. Most of these events are fast run so take quite a lot out of the horses.

I think any of the top six in the betting have the potential to win even though I have doubts about them all. Caravaggio clearly has the best chance on form but I reckon there's a 1/2 probability he won't repeat his best form today so I've laid him.

No pace in the race, as feared.

wd figgis, looked below par today carravagio, all the talk about it being unbeatable, GET IN THERE HARRY ANGEL,
HES PROVED HES THE NUMBER 1 SPRINTER always been a big fan of the dark angel family

Ta roadrunner. Yes, those who were wary of a slow early pace were proved right after all. Surprised they didn't set a faster gallop on Intelligent Cross. Maybe they were more interested in marking Harry Angel rather than setting a faster pace for their favourite. Although personally I don't think Caravaggio was winning today whatever the pace. O'Brien played down the sweating in the paddock but to me Caravaggio didn't look as well in himself overall today as he had at Ascot. Although the pace was slower than usual, for me the pace didn't alter the result, Harry Angel was always travelling like the best horse and was a deserved winner on the day.

I think the race was totally ruined by the slow pace. Top class sprints should be run at a decent pace. I was really looking forward to this race but it turned out to be unsatisfactory.

It's a constant imponderable - pace or lack of - even in a G1 sprint. John Smiths Cup was the same today - no pace whatsoever.

HARRY

With this defeat Caravaggio could run another one or two races more before taking up stud duty, I'd imagine.

Well done to backers and connections, but no Sheikh Mo though, I'd why.

The favourite was struggling a long way out and it will be interesting to see if he runs again as there aren't really many races for him. With the Nunthorpe clearly too sharp and the Haydock Sprint also on a very sharp track I'd have thought a step up in trip for the Foret, QEII or the Breeders Cup Mile might be the only options.
Won't be in the least bit surprised if they make an excuse for him and pack him off to stud pronto.

PS: Well done Figgis.

Cheers uncle. If he does race again there might be some more value to be had in opposing him, as excuses will be made for today.

Forgot about the new mega money race in Australia. Presumably that will be the aim for Caravaggio - huge upside if he wins, or even runs really well in defeat, and no downside as they can just blame the travelling etc.

another hype bubble burst wasn't it supposed to be the fastest they'd ever had not much evidence of that speed in the final furlong

WD Figgis. I was convinced you would have gone for Harry's Angel, you were all over him in his last race.
It was a good day to go racing and a hot race which I think was messed up. I wouldn't mind betting good money PB doesn't ride a pacemaker for them for a good while. They walked then sprinted and where Moore was he could not have expected that. He had no choice but sit where he was. He half reared leaving the stalls and only had three rags behind him. It was a two furlong sprint and he had to quicken at the same time everything was quickening in front of him. In the end Caravaggio finished upsides his pacemaker who he beat 10 lengths at Ascot. Brando finished third and Tasleet the 7f horse finished last.
I hope they all turn up for the decider at Haydock. Limato ran a good race but needs 6f and a fast pace and he got neither. The winner could not have wished for the race to be run any better.

i have to apologize for my write up on the race, when mentioning that the older horses had the edge, it was an oversight, for not
realizing that they had to give weight away to the older horses, so use to seeing horses with different ratings in group races running off level weights

Get faster ground then harry's can show how good he really is,he won't even turn up for these races on slower going...

mistake, give weight away to the younger horses.

don't think that was Tasleet's running,at all,
he's a lot better than that.Trounced Brando
up at York.Track and ground could have played
a part in this.The Tin Man is better than that
aswell.Personally would definately give Tasleet
another go against the winner on a flatter track.

The Tin Man looked all at sea on the track/going combo,hated it.

I thought Brando was the eye catcher,ran a mighty race from off the pace (wd dunlaying at 33s) and proved the burst blood vessel York run to be a blip.Brando has the Prix Maurice de Gheest pencilled in.

They didn't run to form guys because it became a 2 furlong sprint which only suited the front runners, the winner and Caravaggio's pacemaker. It was a mess basically. Don't judge your selection on this run and hope everyone else does.

Ta Brigust. I wasn't sure how Harry Angel would come out of his last race. There's no doubt that Tasleet and The Tin Man ran below form but that can't be blamed on the pace. Horses running to form don't get beat 5 lengths+ because of a sprint finish. Both horses were going backwards at the end of the race. They both were just below par on the day. Possibly the Ascot race took plenty out of them but maybe they can bounce back next time.

You could be right F but Tasleet is a 7f horse dropping back so a short sprint found him out and The Tin Man was found off the pace when they quickened and TQ only had time to give him one back hander then accepted it.  Both horses came from well back at Ascot so clearly this race was not run to suit them. The Tin Man was treated significantly softly.
That's a pity F because he was a great price this time. I think you missed one there. I know the feeling. In fact everything, except the favourite, was a great price as it turned out.

But good horses should not be slowing down more than inferior horses after going a slow pace early, so there's no possible excuse on that score for those two runners yesterday. I could've backed Harry Angel but if he'd ran below par I wouldn't have been surprised. Neither would I have been surprised if Limato or most of the runners I mentioned in my earlier post had won. If one or two fancied runners are off their game it opens the whole race up. I would've needed to back a few runners to be confident of a return then have to work out how to divide my stakes and would be second guessing myself if I'd got it right. That works for some people but in these instances I'd rather take the less brave option of laying the fav.

In fact everything, except the favourite, was a great price as it turned out.

Which was kind of how I saw things before the race and the reason I laid him. I'd oppose him again next time whatever the likely pace if he's short again.

I think the slow pace has been judged as the factor which decided the outcome while ignoring everything else. Harry Angel was keen early and you could see he was trying to go faster, with Kirby understandably restraining him but that wouldn't have been ideal for the horse. On the day he was the one who travelled the smoothest and had more natural easier pace than the rest. I think he was a worthy winner.

I think I would do the same again, financially. Nothing I saw yesterday will change my mind. I hope they all go to Haydock and the ground is the same. PB set up a shocker, considering the way RM rode Caravaggio, and I don't think he will be riding an important pacemaker anytime soon. His team mate beat him a neck which is around 6 lengths wrong on form so that cannot be ignored. Not by me anyway. The other three finished as I would have expected with Limato beating The Tin Man and Tasleet in that order but I think they were all inconvenienced by the slow early pace. Let's hope they bring it on again.
If you list the race without the older horses with Harry's Angel beating Caravaggio by a length and three quarters with Intelligence Cross a neck away in third you will know immediately that just is not right.

I don't think anybody is saying the pace didn't affect the finishing order to some extent. That's blatantly obvious and I'm pretty sure everyone would agree on that. That's totally different than saying it affected the winning result. I don't believe it did.

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/sectionals/sectional-timing-debrief-newmarket-july-festival-1672017

Another take on the race is this sectional analysis. The conclusion is that only Brando's finishing effort could be rated enough to possibly overturn the form with the winner. I agree that Brando had to be the most inconvenienced by the slow pace considering the ride he was given. As is pointed out in the article though the question is could Brando have finished as well off a true Gp1 pace? I rated his Ayr Gold Cup win time equal to a Gp2 performance considering the weight carried. He wouldn't need to improve much to become a Gp1 horse this year. On this run I can't say if he's improved or still the same as last year, will probably find out next time.

That is what racing and betting is all about F. I believe Caravaggio would have beaten Intelligence Cross by at least as much as 2 lengths further in a truly run race having beaten him 10 lengths at Ascot. Of course, I'm not absolutely sure he would beat Harry Angel on top of the ground over 6f but I do think I would be happy to pay to be involved in that one. It is good to see Tf agree about the pace but it was pretty obvious.

Brigust, what was your take on Caravaggio in the paddock compared to previously? Not just the sweating.

AOB has just been on saying Caravaggio possibly stepping up to 7f next time. If Limato goes to Haydock something will have to be done about the pace otherwise I suggest the result may be a foregone conclusion.
I did see them all walking around F but there appeared to be nothing untoward. The friends I was with, who would know more than me, never suggested anything to be concerned about but it was more a family affair than a betting one. Had Caravaggio gone out remarkably I would have thought something was afoot but he shortened up, possibly because they had a previous winner so I can add nothing to what you saw F. The problem with going racing is how restrictive it can be for viewing, betting, any follow ups and other meetings but, as I said, this was more of a family occasion.

I know it pains me to have to say this but stepping Caravaggio up to 7 furlongs must bring AOB's continued speed claims about him into question.

What is the point of stepping Caravaggio up to 7f? Would it not be better if it was 8f to be more appealing to prospective broodmares? I'd think 6f and ridden closer to the pace (regardless of opposition) would be ideal for the horse. Churchill underperformed and yesterday it was Caravaggio; Churchill perhaps was inconvenienced by the heat; Caravaggio has had quite a hard race in the Commonwealth, I believe.

A mega draw and a treat to racegoers and supporters if Caravaggio, Harry Angel and Limato would do battle in the Sprint Cup at Haydock in September. And I'd side with Caravaggio once again similarly Churchill against Barney Roy/Ribchester in the upcoming Sussex Stakes next month.

no 7F G1s have any prestige and will not enhance his rep. also he did not look to be running on in the July Cup. he's probably stagnated now and further runs will only see more defeats.

It isn't really 7f A_T it is 6.5f and Deauville is flat the obvious reason is obviously the date. Deauville is early August and Haydock is early September so if they want to run the Everest in early October in Australia it seems like the logical choice. An easy win then a break as opposed to a hard race and a shorter break.

I'm perplexed by connections of Caravaggio's next intended target for him could be the Maurice de Gheest over 6.5f on 6th Aug and/or the Everest, the $AUS10m Sprint race on 14th Oct; it could also be the Nunthorpe over 5f on 25th Aug but no Sprint Cup at Haydock where a rematch against his conqueror Harry Angel, Limato and very probably The Tin Man and Tasleet too.

Why to Australia if Caravaggio is not even the undisputed sprint king in Europe? Principally for the money, I guess, even for Coolmore.

Coolmore is all about the breeding operation - get that into your head and it all starts to make sense.

The Haydock Sprint, for all it is a Group 1, does not carry a great deal of prestige from a breeding point of view - plenty of forgettable winners down the years.

As such there is very little to be gained from running him there even if he won, and a lot to lose if he gets beaten by Harry Angel again, which is very likely as it is an easier track than Ascot or New'Mkt so right up Harry's street.

The Australia race makes most sense as it would be a massive boost to his stallion prospects, especially in the Southern hemisphere, if he won or was narrowly beaten, but wouldn't be a huge negative if he was well beat. The Haydock race is too close to the Australia race with quarantine etc, hence them looking at the Maurice de Gheest.

TBH I'm disappointed that Godolphin aren't sending Harry to Australia - they have Blue Point for Haydock.

Imp the rematch would jeopardise the Everest because of the dates. It is good a top flight horse from here goes to Australia to take on their sprinters as a planned operation. Too often our horses go at the end of a busy season so there are excuses. This time we will get to see how good the Aussie best is against potentially our best. If he wins he will be off to stud but if he loses then the possibility of a rematch with Harry Angels could be a match to savour over the winter. There should be something in it for everyone.
Of course it is about money as you say, but I suggest the win money of the Everest will pale into insignificance when compared to the breeding money, if he wins.

To call any horse the undisputed champion is difficult because they all have specific requirements to achieve their best which I believe they all had in the July Cup. Sadly, in the end, it wasn't a test to find out who the best 6 furlong sprinter is. And AOB will know the July Cup and the unbeaten record were given away very, very cheaply but he is well used to making such errors of judgement throughout his career so he will know how to get over it.

Well said Uncle but I think sending HA to Australia this season would be a mistake. If he is handled properly he could end this season on a high while Caravaggio is testing the waters concerning a trip for him to Oz as a 4 year old old. If Caravaggio gets beaten they may shelve that idea but if he wins they could plan next season around it. If they spend the rest of this year getting him to settle and be better in the stalls anything could be possible.

that is so true, the diamond jubilee and the july cup are the only group 1 sprints that really count for the all aged group 1 sprints,
they are the races with prestige attached,what have I learned about the two best sprint races this year, is the massive difference in the tracks of ascot and Newmarket over the 6f. track knowledge is not something I have bothered to learn about. but is very useful regarding my fav group 1 races of the year, the sprints.

'brigust'...noticed the proximity of the dates of the Sprint cup and Everest. Nevertheless, get the job done here 1st and for AOB to even suggest the Nunthorpe (5f) as a possibility over the Sprint Cup (6f) is ludicrous, to say the least, bearing in mind Caravaggio needs at least 6f to show his best amongst the very best in his field.

No matter what, I believe Caravaggio had achieved more than any of the Scat Daddy offsprings to assume the mantle of his dad as a future stallion - his fee had not decreased being part of a very limited crop of his sire because of his impromptu death.

I still hope connections would ditch Australia and take in the races here to redeem his reputation as the number 1 sprinter here and Europe.

Imp the Haydock sprint wouldn't compare to the Everest as far as breeding is concerned. I hope if Caravaggio goes to Deauville that Limato goes as well. Would be the right trip and would fit in well with the Sprint Cup.

Excellent piece in the Post today by Julian Muscat. No pace, no cigar for Caravaggio. Suggesting the antics of the Coolmore pace setters in the Eclipse and July Cup compromised their horse's chances and it was no wonder Ryan Moore 'looked shellshocked on Caravaggio on his return to weigh in'.

If the writing was on the wall ie no pace in the race, why did the jocks like Moore and Crowley (Tasleet) not employ Plan B eg be closer with the pace and/or upsides Harry Angel rather than suffered the expected consequence? If either/both had lost in the process - which they both did - at least the punters get a run for their money given the circumstances and not blamed the lack of pace after the race.

atr keven blake's blog story on the july cup

an unbiased view of the race

Looks like Henry is at least reading the script with regard to Limato nominating another potential meeting with Caravaggio in the de Geest. Hope the ground is OK because the trip will be.

We should find out today if Caravaggio's latest run was just a blip or the sign of a decline. Excuses were made because of the pace last time but I don't think he'd have won that day even in a faster run race. Signs of Blessing won this last year and will be thereabouts again if he can put his latest poor run behind him. I have Brando just 1lb behind him on his Ayr Gold Cup win. He hasn't run as fast this year but his finish in the July Cup suggested he could be returning to his best. The unknown with him is if he'll be as good over this extra half a furlong. If Caravaggio runs to his best he should win, as I have him 6lbs clear of the field on these terms. I was confident there was a good chance he'd be below his best last time after his Ascot effort. I'm less confident this time, as it's possible that Ascot just temporarily took the edge off him and he could bounce back here. My feeling though is that he peaked at Ascot so at this short price I'm laying him again.

wd figgis, caravaggios super fans cant believe just what hit them, sectional timing debrief was very informative, although didn't buy
the unlucky on the day angle, defintitley highlighted a surge in form for brando. well deserved winner.

Ta roadrunner. Easy to say in hindsight but I was in two minds whether to lay Caravaggio or back Brando as he was the one that stood out at the prices. I talked myself out of backing Brando thinking he might just run out of gas late on and laying Caravaggio was the safer option. I really ought to have had the balls to back him, and probably halving my stake between laying the fav and backing Brando was the way to go.

it was a brilliant sectional write up, only thing I disagreed with was the unlucky on the day bit, wasn't having anyone explaining to me that harry angel didn't fully deserve his win that day. nice to see a surge in form like that rewarded, hes got a group 1 win now,
late developers these horses who get the sprint group 1's aged 5, like slade power he had to wait until 5 before he got his group 1 wins. made some money, I was just taking an interest in the race not financially, that extra 1/2 furlong today was the only unknown

mistake, meant you made some money, that's all that counts end of the day.

Well done on another good shout Figgis. I presumed he'd be around evens and as I had no strong opinion at that price, I spent a rare afternoon away from the screen only to find out later he had been much shorter on here pre-race. I recall Tabor being interviewed after Winter's Newmarket win, the day after Churchill, and when given a chance to lavish praise upon his trainer, he said rather pointedly 'he gets it right most of the time.' I wonder if they now wish Caravaggio had been retired after the July Cup with 'an injury sustained during the race.' I said somewhere on here, with only slight sarcasm, that Churchill should be retired after the Guineas, and although he won well in Ireland, it might not have been such a bad call. Wonder where we'll see him next.

Thanks Howellsy. See Caravaggio or Churchill next?

Jul 19, 2017 -- 2:38AM, brigust1 wrote:

Excellent piece in the Post today by Julian Muscat. No pace, no cigar for Caravaggio. Suggesting the antics of the Coolmore pace setters in the Eclipse and July Cup compromised their horse's chances and it was no wonder Ryan Moore 'looked shellshocked on Caravaggio on his return to weigh in'.

bigrust you bought into that fake news, lock stock and two smoking barrels

Interesting discussion.

From tomorrows RP...

O'Brien, meanwhile, reported Caravaggio "very sore" following his disappointing performance in the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville on Sunday, when the dual Group 1 winner could finish only sixth.

"We think there could be an issue with his shoes and that he's not getting proper traction when he races," said O'Brien. "He was very sore in front this morning.

"Before he ran in the July Cup we put on different shoes with rubber between his feet and the shoes. We'll give him a week to ten days before reviewing the situation and making plans. Hopefully we'll be able to resolve the problem.


Problems being rationalized back to the JC...

I've not read the article but surely the pertinent question revolves around why they changed the type of shoes the horse wears before the July Cup after he was so impressive in the Commonwealth Cup? The only reason I can think of is because the horse has some discomfort in his hooves(feet).

Well I backed Limato and Caravaggio again while I was away but no luck. I think the ground and the way he was ridden added to Limato's defeat but getting really fast ground again may be a problem.
Caravaggio, on the other hand, annoys me. AOB tells us now that he fitted him with inserts and they clearly never worked. They can have that effect but the early slow pace in this race didn't expose this weakness so I backed him again in France.
One point to note is that AOB said Caravaggio's jockey told him he couldn't get any traction and it was like his wheels were spinning. He said exactly the same after Cliffs of Moher won at Chester. After being difficult to train I wonder if they have tried inserts on him as well? They never tell us anything as usual.

everyones a believer now HARYS ANGEL NUMBER 1 SPRINTER

Imagine if it had been quicker ground,maybe one of the greats his speedfigure at haydock told you that anyway time will be interesting ground didn't seem to be cutting up as much as I thought....