Irish Derby

think with another run under belt and the fact he was closer to the brisk pace i would still back cracksman to beat them 2 if they meet

I backed Waldgeist for epsom, and he didn't turn up. I think he would run well here, but i can't be bothered with the sideshow. One of the derby winners owners have a share in him. I've had enough of those bastards already this season.

Douglas McArthur, the pacesetter of this 'strong gallop' was beaten 4 3/4 lengths ..is that what you would expect from a 'suicidal gallop' as i've heard reported

should run Enable in this,good enough
to do what Salsabil & Balachine did.

This is a no brainer for me. There is only one route Cracksman can take. Irish Derby, King George and Arc. There are no other races for this strong staying 12f horse. I think Cracksman will win this race by a wide margin, as St Jovite did, then go on to the King George and Arc.
St Jovite was also beaten at Epsom by Dr Devious, a non stayer, but reversed the form in no uncertain terms at the Curragh where the fairer track with the long uphill finish suited him perfectly just like it will Cracksman. I don't believe Cracksman acted at Epsom, something that wasn't tested when he won his trial, and coupled with the fast ground and go-stop-go nature of the race wasn't suitable for this strong stayer. Frankie won't allow himself to be messed about by front runners at the Curragh, he will take it up a long way out and draw right away.
Of course I am assuming the Derby winner, Wings of Eagles, won by being given all of the hand outs available as far as going and pace etc were concerned but that is a risk I am prepared to take. I cannot see Waldgeist being any problem on form so I see this as one way traffic only. Price may not be great but a winner is a winner.

After the Irish Derby I think he will waltz the King George also in St Jovite style who won the King George by 6 lengths. Nothing in the race (except Enable who I will deal with later) has the stamina to challenge him.

Then the Arc where the long uphill finish and nature of the track will suit his front runner/strong stamina style. It will not suit as well as the Curragh because the draw and the going will play a significant role. 

The problem I have is that I am not certain the Derby is a Group 1 race this year, as I think it wasn't last year. The only difference is that the opposition from the older horses looks short on stamina. Highland Reel, Jack Hobbs and Almanzour head the King George market and none are guaranteed stayers in my book.

Enable is the fly in the ointment. I cannot see any other route for her to take and she could be, and probably is, better than Cracksman with the sex allowance. They are both solid stayers who would not benefit from going the 10f route so they will clash. Gosden will have a job keeping them apart as there are so few genuine alternatives and they are in different ownership. In the King George they are 8s and 12s and in the Arc they are 10s and 25s. I cannot split them so I'm backing both.

If the 3yr old colts are nothing special this year then there is nothing to be gained but lots to lose for Enable to contest the Irish Derby rather than the Oaks - there are plenty of opportunities for that in the near future eg King George, etc.

How much better Cracksman is at The Curragh than Epsom I cannot be absolutely certain however, I do agree Epsom is not the ideal track for him thus his position at the head of the Irish Derby market, but will he beat Wings Of Eagles? I'm not sure especially if AOB fields several to ensure a similar Epsom pace is replicated here; I'm not a fan of Waldgeist given known present form.

Cracksman beating the likes of Jack Hobbs, Highland Reel, Seventh Heaven or Enable I cannot even contemplate, why? These are all proven 12f Gp 1 winners unlike Cracksman; Jack Hobbs and Seventh Heaven needs at least 12f to show their best, in my opinion, thus the Arc, if sound, will see them in good stead. As for Enable I do not know for sure (yet) how good she is despite winning the Epsom Oaks convincingly because I'm still not fully convinced the two beaten fillies ie Rhododendron and Alluringly, truly stayed 12f; the two beaten fillies also encountered a fraught journey to Epsom from Ireland.

The King George IV on 29th July could be the race of the English flat season should Jack Hobbs, Highland Reel, Seventh Heaven and Minding (both presently injured) and Enable show up, but doubt very much; the time and place could be October in the Arc at Chantilly.

Hi Imp. I think Enable will go to the King George then the Arc. Taghrooda went to the KG after the Oaks and I'm sure running her before the Arc was a good idea so I think she will run twice more.
I think, and they way he has been placed, JG thinks Jack Hobbs is a 10f horse and will aim him at the Eclipse, Juddmonte, Irish Champion Stakes and our Champion Stakes. Highland Reel won the King George last year but only because he dictated a pace to suit him. The other two you mentioned may not even run again. Leaving Rhododendron for the 10f races.

*was not a good idea

brigust
Gosden nominated the Hardwicke and the King George IV for Jack Hobbs immediately post the Meydan race prior to a tilt in the Arc. Jack Hobbs could have run in the Coronation Cup (probably would have won it) against Highland Reel but instead Gosden ran Journey; Jack Hobbs is a 12f horse thro' and thro' - he's been beaten over 10f in every Group race he's run in eg two Champions Stakes, and because of his injury he's also a fresh horse and lightly raced; Seventh Heaven will be back and so will Minding, the former targeting 12f and the latter 10f, in my opinion.

Enable already has had two races prior to the Irish Oak next month. I agree she could run in the King George and then the Arc similar to Jack Hobbs, but would Gosden have two of his star horses on the sideline with so many good races to pick-up before the Arc? Probably not.

This year the 10f scene is very competitive with the likes of Minding, Shutter Speed, Hawkbill, Rhododendron, Eminent, Cliffs Of Moher and possibly Churchill in the mix.

You may be right Imp. We are guessing. But I cannot see him dropping Cracksman or Enable back to 10f and his wife part owns Jack Hobbs. Plus the 3 year old allowance plus he will have a good idea who to run from home work. And if you check his entries for Jack Hobbs three are Gr1 10f races and one is the Hardwicke which is Group 2 and 12f. I think running Enable in the Irish Oaks would discount the King George and that may be decided after Cracksman has run in the Irish Derby. All of these guesses are based on potential results of course. If Cracksman wins the Irish Derby easily then Enable MAY go for the Irish Oaks then possibly the Yorkshire Oaks then Arc. If Cracksman struggles then she may go for the King George then the Arc. I agree the 10f races look good but they won't be of concern to Cracksman and Enable in my opinion.

I think Enable will not race over 10f again given the comprehensive beating she received from her stablemate Shutter Speed. However, I do agree if Enable runs in the Irish Oaks, which her connections have stated, then highly unlikely she'll run in the King George given the proximity of these two races ie only 14 days apart. Of course Enable could go for a "soft" prep race eg Yorkshire Oaks (unless last year's winner Seventh Heaven shows up), prior to the Arc but unlikely the King George IV if she runs in the Irish Oaks; this seems to be the more plausible route given Gosden is the trainer of both Jack Hobbs and Enable.

Even if Cracksman wins the Irish Derby easily the absence of Cliffs Of Moher and Eminent will devalue the race. Also, I do not believe he is good enough to run in the Arc against the likes of Almanzor, Jack Hobbs, Seventh Heaven, Highland Reel, Order Of St George and Enable.

This is a no brainer for me. There is only one route Cracksman can take. Irish Derby, King George and Arc. There are no other races for this strong staying 12f horse. I think Cracksman will win this race by a wide margin, as St Jovite did, then go on to the King George and Arc.
St Jovite was also beaten at Epsom by Dr Devious, a non stayer, but reversed the form in no uncertain terms at the Curragh where the fairer track with the long uphill finish suited him perfectly just like it will Cracksman. I don't believe Cracksman acted at Epsom, something that wasn't tested when he won his trial, and coupled with the fast ground and go-stop-go nature of the race wasn't suitable for this strong stayer. Frankie won't allow himself to be messed about by front runners at the Curragh, he will take it up a long way out and draw right away.
Of course I am assuming the Derby winner, Wings of Eagles, won by being given all of the hand outs available as far as going and pace etc were concerned but that is a risk I am prepared to take. I cannot see Waldgeist being any problem on form so I see this as one way traffic only. Price may not be great but a winner is a winner.

This is a no brainer for me. There is only one route Cracksman can take. Irish Derby, King George and Arc. There are no other races for this strong staying 12f horse. I think Cracksman will win this race by a wide margin, as St Jovite did, then go on to the King George and Arc.
St Jovite was also beaten at Epsom by Dr Devious, a non stayer, but reversed the form in no uncertain terms at the Curragh where the fairer track with the long uphill finish suited him perfectly just like it will Cracksman. I don't believe Cracksman acted at Epsom, something that wasn't tested when he won his trial, and coupled with the fast ground and go-stop-go nature of the race wasn't suitable for this strong stayer. Frankie won't allow himself to be messed about by front runners at the Curragh, he will take it up a long way out and draw right away.
Of course I am assuming the Derby winner, Wings of Eagles, won by being given all of the hand outs available as far as going and pace etc were concerned but that is a risk I am prepared to take. I cannot see Waldgeist being any problem on form so I see this as one way traffic only. Price may not be great but a winner is a winner.



strong staying and stop start gallop i don't get tbh

one paced horse and a good gallop i do agree with

and he had the most perfect trip he could of wished for, it doesn't get any more perfect if you are a trip handicapper which i am...best solution got a horrible ride and chased the pace, even he plugged on at the one paced

this was a race where there was no class but that poor class chased a fast pace hence the clugg finish by most runners, the winner will confirm the form for me and hopefully we will get a price on him

WE were obviously watching different races HC.

you must of watched it on the ferris wheel brigust or was inebriated on one of the double deckers

Watched the Epsom Derby again and now I'm not convinced Cracksman can overturn the result with Wings Of Eagles who'd had a very troubled passage to victory at Epsom. At 3.65 and likely Moore onboard his price can only shorten, I believe, all things being equal.

When I look at a result and it looks to good to be true, it usually is.

A bum year thus far!

Hi Metro, how are you?

A question. This year's colts do look an average bunch but if they start hammering the older horses does that make them a better bunch or the older horses a worse bunch than we thought?