Horse Antepost
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Hard to know what is going to run but Donncha was 2nd in thr consolation race last year and has been threatening to win a decent mile handicap for ages.
At 33/1 he's my initial bet.
At 33/1 he's my initial bet.
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Just backed Chelsea Lad(OR96) with Bill Hills at 25/1. His trainer Martyn Meade has given him a lot time after a setback- pulled a muscle while winning at Newmarket- and was being aimed at Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot. He acts on any ground but his trainer thought it was a shame that he had to miss the Britannia as everything had come right for him with the ground. You needed to be rated 98+ last year but the year before two horses got in off 96. If you see his last race where he was stopped twice before quickening up to win, you'll see he is a promising horse. That is my first arrow. Thank heaven the flat season is nearly upon us.
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Certainly an interesting one Madhu assuming this is definitely the aim?
If it were trained by Stoute, Gosden or Haggas it would probably be favourite. |
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Exactement unclepuncle.
Looks like Lads and Corals traders seem to agree. Looking at the stats Martyn Meade seems to get going early, both Aclaim and C Note won first-time out in April last year and I think he will get going fairly early with his possible stable star, the Frankel colt Eminentbecause he could be anything. They will all bring the stable along. |
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Raising Sand OR94
All of a sudden yesterday all of the boomakers shortened this horse and on Boddschecker it became blue across the board (66/1 biggest price down to 20/1 in most places) and he took up ¾ of their most popular bets pie chart. Betfair Exchange had a massive bet of £8 traded at 26- £16 matched, and £736 appeared at 1.01. Let us take a wander back to Wednesday 12 October 2016- Jamie Osbourne Stable Tour ATR Raising Sand 4 b g Oasis Dream - Balalaika Winner of three of his 7 starts. Scored by three quarters of a length from Brigliadoro in a classified stakes at Ascot (1m) at the end of September. Currently rated 92. "He is an interesting horse. I still think there is plenty of life in his mark. I would like to get him in the Balmoral at Ascot but he probably won't get in. He could well have one more run before he goes into the winter because I think he's a horse that would have a chance of winning a Lincoln. He obviously isn't going to get in off 92 to we need to raise his mark to make sure he gets in so we need to win and it could be at Haydock on Friday." Raising Sand duly won his next race on 14 October over a mile at Haydock for his astute trainer and his rating was revised to 94. There is also this from the owners Nick Bradley Racing online end of year assessment. http://www.nickbradleyracing.co.uk/raising-sand After purchasing Raising Sand in 2016 these were our thoughts on his potential: Raising Sand is impeccably bred being by Oasis Dream out of a mare who has produced the 113 rated Alkaadhem. We believe that Raising Sand will benefit from a step up in trip given his pedigree, also looking at his action he should also benefit from soft ground which he has not yet encountered but should do between now and the end of the season. Based on these two facts and the sectional evidence we think this horse will improve to a mark in the 90s between now and then end of the season. Raising Sand finished his season for us with 3 wins and a second and now has a handicap mark of 94. We think 2017 could be a huge year for this horse and his owners. In the 2016 Lincoln (Secret Brief, from Meyden) the lowest rated horse was OR 98 and 18/22 were rated higher than 100. 2015 (Gabrial, FTO) the lowest rated were on 96, 12/22 100+. 2014 (Ocean Tempest, Meyden) lowest rated 93, 4/17 (5 NR’s) 100+ There were 138 entries for the Lincoln Handicap when they were published a few days ago. By sorting the runners by their OR- 25 of these have an OR of 100+ below top-rated Battle Of Marathon (110) The maximum field is 22 runners 27 horses are officially rated above Raising Sand 21 more horses have no OR listed, either because they have been running at Meydan (UAE) (17) or have previously been running in Ireland (4- x2 trained by Joseph O’Brien). All 17 of the Meyden horses are rated over 94, many 100+. This makes the possibility of 17 more horses to be added to the 25 rated higher than 94. 3 of the horses previously raced in Ireland have a rating above 94, that makes 20, the only one that is below, is an ex Mick Halford/Godolphin now with Jamie Osbourne. In total then by my reckoning some 45 runners would need to come out for Raising Sand to get a run. You might ask is it not possible he could manage to get a penalty by winning on the all-weather, but in his two races on the AW he was beaten 43 lengths on his racecourse debut and only race as a 3yo on the Polytrack at Chelmsford City Racecourse and was 7/10 (3½L Banditry) LTO at the same venue at the end of last October, 12 days after his Haydock win. His chances of winning off 94 on the AW do not bode well and Raising Sand IMO has a tough chance of getting in the Lincoln right now without a win. Then again, Sir Mark Prescott’s 3yo colt St Michel managed to sneak in the Cesarewitch with a 4lb penalty off 8-6 rated 97 after several forfeit stages when not looking likely to get in. I acknowledge my arrow Chelsea Lad off OR96 is up against it as well but he has a kin much better chance at the moment. I might have this entirely wrong and he may manage a win before but to me this is obviously a false boomakers gamble case; you know the ones where the right faces are supposedly getting substantial money on a coup horse and they want a load of mugs to follow the imaginary money. R soles. |
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Well if he is balloted out the money is returned so feasibly connections may have had a lumpy bet or two (and it only takes a few £50 -£100 bets for a price to collapse).
He has to be entered in order to get in the consolation race which might be the realistic target - though obviously there is no antepost betting on that. |
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' seas of blue ' on Oddschecker are a bookmakers delight ( and often false).
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Like the look of morando here. Ran well at Ascot when didn't get best of run, on the same mark and looks like he will keep improving. Varian thought he would turn into a stakes horse. Anybody know if this is his intended target?
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This race is the only one appearing in the Future Entries section of the RP, if that helps.
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Looked at Fahey, looked at THIRD TIME LUCKY, looked at the 16-1, looked at date of race and realised it's all a joke. April fool.
With the Irish Lincoln around the same time it's not a difficult call to wait for day of race betting. There was a time Fahey wanted to win this but won it twice now, perhaps he's not so bothered now looking at his entrants last two years. |
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Third Time Lucky has gone up 5lb to 106 after finishing 3rd at Lingfield on March 4th, they won £1,791 for that. How crazy is that, compromised their chance here.
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I'll go with NIMR 16-1 after today's win gives him 5lb penalty and could just scrape in at the bottom. Intended runner, so no worries there.
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i will take you on with YUFTEN after todays run.
charlton said in his column he was aiming for the lincoln(hope), soft ground on the day would be a worry but yuften as a bit of form in a group race in france with give. plenty of 14-1 was still available. |
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YUFTEN at 12/1 0.75 win and a saver on MORANDO at 8/1 0.25 win, yuften won the balmoral handicap last year and has been transformed since moving
to roger charlton, good run LTO in 7f listed AW race beaten a SNK, and should be fit on the day to run a big race, morando fav for the lincoln last year, didnt get the best of runs that day, and is now a 4yo and has been laid out for this race, goodluck |
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Have taken some of the last remaining 25/1 available on Chelsea Lad (Betfair Sportbook).
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Chelsea Lad
Chelsea Lad moves up to 33 in the list of entries after the recent forfeit stage but still needs a further 11 to pull out. George Scott’s 7yo George Cinq, a two-time course winner getting a 5lb penalty and now guaranteed a run is rather annoying. That said, there is some optimism looking at those that remain above him. Elleval, Dark Emerald and Fanciful Angel have all in the past reappeared in June/July after running in Meydan. It looks like all roads are leading to the AWC Mile Final for Keystroke, and You´re Fired, Third Time Lucky and Steel Train are all qualified. Lucy the Painter does not look overly well-handicapped and her last five races have been about gaining black-type. Nor does it appear an obvious target for Captain Cat considering his AW form this year for Tony Carroll. Jaqen H’Ghar is also entered in the Irish Lincolnshire, for which incidentally Nimr is guaranteed a run off 101. Looking at the other Richard Fahey runners higher up, the 2015 winner Gabrial was then specifically aimed at the race, whereas this time he will be coming from three races in Meydan and Doha. Qualification for the AWC and a 5lb penalty here might dissuade the connections of Third Time Lucky. Heaven’s Guest has made his seasonal debut at Lincoln meeting for the past four years and for the first time in the Lincoln last year but connections might decide 6f first-time-out is better for him this time. Withernsea, a two-time course winner over 7f, ran at a mile first-time-out at the Curragh in 2016 but overall has only ran twice at the distance in 29 starts. He may well take his place but is no Brae Hill. I would prefer the 4yo Dolphin Vista as he stays 10f and has won three times over a mile, only needs five to come out and will look an ideal type if it comes up soft. I added Morando and Yuften after his last run knowing this is being targeted. |
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I agree. Morando Yufton both backed
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Funny I agree too Morando (main bet by a mile) and YUFTEM 12/1 but also added DONNCHA @25/1 ... and Steel Train @33s at bigger odds
Not sure Sacred Act, Nimr will make the cut - so feel there is a lot of value to be had at this stage.. |
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Dolphin Vista
Richard Fahey:- “We have five or six for the Lincoln, but it is tough to get in it,” he added. “Namir will struggle to get in. He is in the race off 95, but is rated 100. “All of mine are badly handicapped, but Dolphin Vista is likely to get in off 99 and would be the best of mine. If it was soft ground he would have a big chance.” http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/richard-fahey-confident-ribchester-can-step-up-in-dubai-turf-at-meydan Met Office Issued at: 14:00 on Fri 24 Mar 2017- UK Outlook for Wednesday 29 Mar 2017 to Friday 7 Apr 2017: A rather more changeable and breezy pattern will be established across the UK during Wednesday and Thursday, particularly for the north and west, with some heavy rain probable here. The driest and brightest conditions are expected in eastern and southern areas of the UK, where it will feel pleasantly warm. By the weekend, we'll continue to see unsettled conditions across the UK, with bands of rain moving west to east, interspersed by brighter and showery interludes. It'll be often windy, particularly in the north and northwest, with gales at times. However, we are likely to see a good deal of settled and dry weather becoming established across the UK towards the end of the period. As I previous alluded to Dolphin Vista I've gone in at 40's (WHil). |
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What is the maximum field size these days? Is there a declaration stage before 48hr decs? Thanks in advance.
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5 day Decs out today...should be now...
Think max field is 22 ... Will be interesting to see where Sacred Act, Baileys and NIMROD figure ... |
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ballet concerto a likely runner in this?
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Thanks Iris. Ballet Concerto 24 atm; Sacred Act 27. They're the 2 I'm interested in. Looks like a drying week at Donny.
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quite surprised how short ballet concerto is for this...he has looked a backward type to me and this looks to much to soon, just an opinion as am following the horses progress, other races down the line interest me more, so will be interesting to see if he were to run here, as this will confuse me a tad considering his slow progress thus far
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Did the 5 day decs occur today ?
Still 100 runners !!! |
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looks like it. nimr was 41, now 31.
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Chelsea Lad
It is certainly comforting to read Martyn Meade’s comments today, although nail-bitingly so considering he still needs a further 3 to pull out. "Chelsea Lad is hopefully going for the Lincoln. He had a knee problem last year, which is why he hasn't run for a while, but he seems to have progressed well," said Meade. "He's rated 96 and he could potentially be thrown in off that mark." http://www.skysports.com/racing/news/12426/10815695/roger-varians-morando-among-lincoln-acceptors Again there are still reasons to be optimistic looking at others that remain above him. Zhui Feng is also entered in the 10f Listed Magnolia stakes at Kempton the same day; ran his best race last-time-out on the AW at Lingfield in the G3 Winter Derby over a 10f; beat Marsha at Kempton over 6f as a 2yo, and Amanda Perrett has five other horses entered at Kempton on Saturday, her best track for winners but no others at Doncaster where the stable is 0/6 in the last five years, and after all it is kin 200 miles/4 hours away from Pulborough. As regards to Ballet Concerto, he has got farther than Munaaser, a recent Freemason Lodge possible runner for whom in the end was not ready in time even at this entry stage, and has more chance of making the final line-up than Lang Shining all those years ago, but there has been no news or any signs of stable confidence behind the horse as yet. |
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Very surprised to read that the current going is good-to-soft, soft in places - would have thought it would have been good all round after the recent dry spell.
I bet Chelse Lad misses the cut by one.  |
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I live near Donny, the going in my garden has got much better over the weekend, not much soft left there.
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Some early jockey indications:
Buick on Yuften Probert on Chelsea Lad Jamie Spencer on Donncha Paul Hanagan on Dolphin Vista Ben Robinson (7lb) on Top Notch Tonto Clifford Lee (5lb) on You're Fired Atzeni on Morando Tudhope opts for Bravery |
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Ballet Concerto
Rogue Angel Spring Double |
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Top Notch Tonto - halved in price... tipped by Paul Keally in the Weekender I assume its to do with a claimer taking 7lb off?... he also tipped Yuften and that hardly blipped in price... so not sure why such a drastic cut?
Jockey bookings are interesting though.. looks like its going to be a good curtain raiser for the season... Hoping it goes to top end of market ... |
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Always worth keeping an eye on the wind at Doncaster. The straight faces SW. Reasonable SW winds forecast for Saturday at the moment.
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Only 3 horses don't have jocks on them
RICHARD Fahey and Hannons very close call on whether any of the ones outside top 22 get in... |
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Interesting Iris, does that suggest Third Time Lucky and Heaven´s Guest are giving it a miss since he booked Adam McNamara for Gabrial today?
Is Richard Hannon waiting for better ground for Oh This Is Us or waiting to find out if Ryan Moore rides Ballet Concerto if he gets in? Will Highland Colori be declared a runner considering David Probert is also booked for Chelsea Lad? Unlike our Unclepuncle, I’m optimist that Chelsea Lad will just slip in nicely at number 22 just after 10am tomorrow at the Confirmation Of Entry Stage, that’s about the same time as bus no 22 arrives at Chelsea Old Town Hall. |
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very intriguing indeed if bus 22 actually makes it on time.... at Chelsea Old Town Hall.... when the decs are made at 11am....
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Funnily enough I have found in the past it is only a matter of 20 minutes after the Confirmation Of Entry Stage that a couple of bookies price up the declared runners on Odds checker. SJ and B365 are usually on the case quickest.
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Long time favourite Morando won't run
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Chelsea Lad misses the cut. No Sacred Act either.
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