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IrisDeBalme
17 Jan 17 13:52
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Date Joined: 17 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 1,977 | Blogger: IrisDeBalme's blog
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Interesting contenders especially Gold Cup dark horse ALARY - currently 3/1 - for a horse that's top weight and aimed at the Gold Cup, I'm not sure the gruelling Peter March Chase is the best port of call.  At the moment looks like a easy handicap to solve - but the moment you get to Saturday u realise its tougher than it looks... seems to happen in most Saturday handicaps these days...

Id take him on at this stage knowing he will drift on the day - not saying he is not going to win... but quite unbackable at the current prices... and you need to have a bit of leap of faith...

Then we have BRISTOL DE MAE - talented classy horse... but still is he a horse you would back in a slog against seasoned handicappers? Not quite sure... but does have a good weight.

The one I like is DEFINATELY RED who last time out beat the likes of Balcklion and Yala Enki... has Henry Brooke jocked on him and with 10-11 on his back is certainly value against the favourite. Will relish the conditions and has the right profile for a race like this.

(Hopefully will turn up :))

Good Luck
Pause Switch to Standard View PETER MARCH CHASE - DEFINATELY RED 7/1
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Report boy wonder 07 January 17, 2017 4:59 PM GMT
Yes I agree Definitly Red will run a big race I bet him at Wetherby and I think he can still be competitive off 8lb higher but I have bet Vintage Clouds  at 12/1 yet to win a chase but will also love the ground 2lb wrong at the minute but one reason I have bet him is will Alary run top weight in heavy conditions I have a feeling he wont and at he moment 3/1 fav all odds will shorten considerably als he only has 2 wins from 20 races in france
Report The Dragon January 17, 2017 8:23 PM GMT
yup that isanother good call imvho
Report The Dragon January 17, 2017 8:26 PM GMT
taken 8/1 with 365 also had an ew bet on bishop road at 16/1
Report stevo1 January 18, 2017 8:17 AM GMT
Backed Red the last 2 starts improving but has entry in Sky Bet Chase Saturday week,so will hold fire for mo but 8/1 will look big come this Saturday if showing.
Report sixtwosix January 18, 2017 11:19 AM GMT
The 'second coming' that is Alary has a massive weight giving task here , for a horse who has won very little in France , albeit with good place form. A very difficult first taste of Britihsh racing and I doubt it will even finish ,if turning up.

No idea what will else will turn up , but the two Evan Williams horses are the ones of interest to me.
Firebird Flyer was cruising along for most of the Welsh National , no idea why he faded tamely , but with no weight is worth another go.
Stablemate Still Believing is out of the handicap due to Alary , but if they put the claimer up not by too far......being out of the handicap on Haydock ground will be no problem.
Good win last time , had form over longer distances .
Report the bloob January 18, 2017 7:27 PM GMT
with Alary looking like a very likely runner there will only be a maximum of 9 horses in the handicap. I can see this carving up come Saturday and still some bookies offering 1/4 for 4 places, must be some decent e/w theft available

I've had a nibble at Bishops Road, re-opposing the 3 horses that finished in front in the Rehearsal at Newcastle, and on favourable terms too. 16/1 looks tasty, I know there are jumping issues but highly likely to be single digit odds come saturday
Report ReaseHeath January 18, 2017 7:46 PM GMT
^ Sam Twiston-Davies booked to ride Bishop's Road according to his upbeat trainer on ATR this morning.

Not inclined to get involved just yet but Racing Pulse is of interest if he can build on his completion at Cheltenham recently (admittedly out of the handicap), still have faith in Otago Trail who looked progressive in the Rehearsal Chase and can be forgiven a poor effort in a competitive heat at Leopardstown lto and Beg To Differ does not appear to have been harshly treated by the handicapper if over his Welsh National exertions.

Not sure of the running plans for any of 'em so will wait for final decs.
Report stevo1 January 19, 2017 11:18 AM GMT
Red declared for Saturday.
Report dunlaying January 19, 2017 11:34 AM GMT
At his best Katenko would crucify this lot from his present perch but a more realistic e/w punt could be Berea Boru. Haydock "soft" will suit him and 33/1 is tempting.
Report OnOffer January 19, 2017 9:06 PM GMT
Don't think Definitely Red will like soft conditions.
Report GI MAC January 19, 2017 9:16 PM GMT
At the moment I like :

Vintage Clouds, Firebird Flyer and Virak

Horses for courses
Report the bloob January 19, 2017 9:44 PM GMT
I don't think Definitely Red will have any problem with the ground, and any horses out of the handicap I can't have at all. For me the ones to follow are Bishops Road, Bristol de Mai and Otago Trail. At the prices I've backed Bishops and I'm considering Otago
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 19, 2017 10:28 PM GMT
Seems there's a lot of us here with differing views, what bookmakers absolutely love lol

My only ante-post play in this was this morning and was Sausalito Sunrise at 10/1 4 places. Absolutely revels in the mud, is a course and distance winner has dropped a few pounds in the handicap for running poorly on unsuitable ground and what imo were more competitive handicaps than this one. He really ought to run into a place and should one or two fav's disappoint i.e Alari/BDM could win it. Also last time Tom O'Brien rode him, he won off 150, 155 today but run a very respectable race in a listed race 11 lengths behind Many Clouds next time.
Report IrisDeBalme January 20, 2017 6:53 PM GMT
Interesting ALARY gone out in the betting .... Might go out to 6s .... Antepost punters ripped off though as bookies put up very false prices.... Hyped up media with little substance.  A big transition step for the horse as well as a lot of weight. This run is probably to help connections where to go with him Ryanair or Gold Cup - not sure Peter Marsh is right profile to win gold riband. But worth a cover as price will be more realistic of his chances.

Happy with DEFINATELY RED - conditions distance weight will suit - not so happy he is favourite now....

One horse that scares me is VINTAGE CLOUDS 10/1 always fear those Trevor Hemmings colours - out of the handicap but type of horse who will relish course and conditions. More likely to be prepared for this as trainer won this last year.

Shape of race looks tougher now - looked easier on Monday ;) good luck
Report morpteh mackem January 20, 2017 7:39 PM GMT
sue smith got good record in race
Report Facts January 20, 2017 9:20 PM GMT
Happy with D.RED @9/2
Report FELTFAIR January 21, 2017 12:26 PM GMT
Backed Bishops Road each way. Vintage Clouds 6lb out of the handicap but will have a dabble in the place market.
Report FELTFAIR January 21, 2017 12:29 PM GMT
Both four places.
Report Steamship January 21, 2017 3:13 PM GMT
Otago Trail for me
Report IrisDeBalme January 22, 2017 12:06 PM GMT
Think Alary - either needed the run or just found it a bit hard under the conditions. Not sure if it came out soft in the Gold Cup 3m+ miles wouldnt suit the horse.  I think Ryanair is a bit more realistic... think the experience will do the horse well.  Do think he is better than he shown and looks like a grand horse. One for the notebook.

Bristol De Mai was classy - very impressive. Well done if you had the winner
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