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impossible123
04 Jan 17 16:43
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 13,495 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
If 6/4 or smaller I'd be against Thistlecrack regardless; a very good horse nonetheless in a bigger field than the King George (5), I'd expect at least one of the seasoned chasers will serve it up to him with great aplomb eg in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Hopefully, it would be either Don Cossack, Cue Card or Djakadam notwithstanding Coneygree, even if he turns up.
Pause Switch to Standard View Opposing Thistkecrack in the Gold Cup!!!
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Report Desmond Orchard January 10, 2017 1:10 PM GMT
Until he scoots in and a 'saver' is dug up from months previously at a juicy price......
Besides, another Thistlecrack thread? Just what the forum needs. Couldn't this have gone on one the half dozen or so other threads on related topics?
Report sageform January 11, 2017 8:12 AM GMT
The wisdom of running in the GC as a novice was seriously questioned in 2015 when Coneygree attempted it and won. If they had gone down the novice route, he would almost certainly never have won a Gold Cup. Thistlecrack dominates the division in a way that Coneygree never did.
Report Can't Catch Me January 11, 2017 11:04 AM GMT
Thats pure conjecture though sage. There is an argument that running in the GC as a Novice has finished the horses career.
Report impossible123 January 11, 2017 11:16 AM GMT
If I remember correctly trainers used to have that opinion for the Triumph Hurdle ie 'too rough and tumble' for a 4 yr old, has that mentality changed now?
Report SOULDANCER January 11, 2017 2:51 PM GMT
The Triumph Hurdle has changed now, since the extra races added at Cheltenham it's not so brutal.
Report impossible123 January 11, 2017 3:22 PM GMT
Thanks.
Report sageform January 11, 2017 5:54 PM GMT
Cant Catch Me, I take your point but Coneygree is clearly very hard to keep sound and they were fortunate to have him right in March just the once and took advantage of that. I don't see why running in the RSA instead would have changed anything.
Report ZenMaster January 12, 2017 10:33 AM GMT
Thats pure conjecture though sage. There is an argument that running in the GC as a Novice has finished the horses career.


But he did run to his mark albeit in a 3 runner race at Sandown after the GC. Any race can bring on an injury when they have historically been plagued by them.

Thistlecrack has had back issues and he needs swimming frequently, but connections believe that his body just could not cope with the engine pre being fully physically matured. Now his body can cope with the V8 engine.

Coneygree is a relentless galloper. One can imagine the strain on his body.
Thistlecrack is like a sports car with a sensitive accelerator.

Hard to compare the two.
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2017 10:57 AM GMT
Yeah true chaps. Not saying they did the wrong thing as the horse will always be a GC winner. Just think it needs considering that that could have helped shorten his career as well.
Report sageform January 12, 2017 1:13 PM GMT
There are 2 sides to any decision and there will always be people who would argue the opposite. Just look at Brexit!!
Report TheCollector January 12, 2017 5:41 PM GMT
Like most of the races at this year's festival, the Gold Cup field is filled with shyte
Report impossible123 January 28, 2017 2:30 PM GMT
Big oppose....he did not stay today's 3m Cotswold Chase - 3m 2.5f in the Gold Cup, even lesser chance, in my opinion.
Report dunlaying January 28, 2017 4:18 PM GMT
Just out of interest what makes you so sure that he did not stay?
Report dunlaying January 28, 2017 4:20 PM GMT
Many Clouds was all out to get him and that hero stayed longer than the Clap.
Report sykes10 January 28, 2017 5:02 PM GMT
very open race,djakadam should at least get placed if mullins left him with a bit to work on after lexus,looks the only each way option
Report Addictedtowinning January 28, 2017 6:59 PM GMT
Thistlecrack was beaten today by a horse that has won a National and a Hennessey - no shame in that for a novice and to say he did not stay is a bit harsh. Combined with a feeling that the trainer might have left a bit to work on I think anything over 2-1 is fair.
Report sintonian January 28, 2017 7:59 PM GMT
Impossible, you absolute bell  end. Todays races was 25.5f, not 3m. Secondly, he's just been beaten a head by a horse who has won a Grand National over 4miles!! How on earth ANYBODY can conclude he did not stay is ridiculous.

He'll probably get beaten again in March, but it'll be because he's up against tough hardened chasers. Though you could argue he did not need to run today as the King george was only 32 days ago.
Report ReaseHeath January 28, 2017 8:18 PM GMT
^ was just about to type similar.

In fact today's race was actually run over 3m 2f 28yds with the dolling out of the chase bends, last year's Gold Cup was 3m 2f 70yds (though it's usually 3m 2.5f) - either way he'll have to travel less than half a furlong further and probably on better ground.

There is a world of difference between not staying and being outstayed (by a head by an absolute warrior) - there was 17 lengths back to Smad Place in 3rd.

Just as there was an positive overreaction to his King George win, there is a corresponding negative overreaction to today's defeat - Thistlecrack - and his connections - probably learned more today than they did at Kempton, actually the way he was ridden reminded me a little but of Cue Card's defeat at Wetherby at the start of the season.

It does make for a better Gold Cup - the other market principles will stand their ground and connections of the the likes of Bristol De Mai and Champagne West will feel they have a squeak if the ground comes up soft.

RIP Many Clouds
Report impossible123 January 28, 2017 8:29 PM GMT
Thistlecrack was installed a short price 6/4 fav for the Gold Cup after his scintillating KG display, but after Cheltenham today I believe even 3/1 is too short; I also believe had today's race been a furlong further (GC's distance) Many Clouds would have won by a bigger margin as Thistlecrack was clearly running on fumes just before the line - he headed Many Clouds a few moments earlier but was run out of it.

Thistlecrack has been winning races comfortably over distances up to 3m and today's extra 1.25f caught him out - the GC race is 3m 2.3f. For a novice Thistlecrack ran a very good race but I do not believe he was beaten today because he is a novice but by the extra 1.25f distance.
Report ReaseHeath January 28, 2017 8:40 PM GMT
imp, why are you still writing the wrong distances for the races despite explanations to the contrary?

Do you share incorrect factual information deliberately to wind people up?

THE GOLD CUP IS LESS THAN HALF A FURLONG FURTHER THAN TODAY'S RACE

TODAY'S RACE WAS MORE THAN 2 FURLONGS FURTHER THAN THE KING GEORGE

I'll refrain from Rafa Benitez mode.
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 28, 2017 10:00 PM GMT
To suggest he doesn't stay is utter nonsense. This was his first proper race over fences around Cheltenham against high class experienced chasers, and in my view, slow jumps 4 out and 3 out probably cost him the race as he lost a bit of ground on the winner.

If the Gold Cup is run on good ground as it usually is and if he improves for this experience then he's still the one to beat.
Report sintonian January 28, 2017 10:28 PM GMT
you thought he ran over 3m today Imp. How can you place bets when you're not even in possession of the real facts. Basically, in that one post, you told everyone what a Guess you're having.
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 28, 2017 10:34 PM GMT
And he was only just beaten on soft ground by a very high class horse who stays much further and literally gave his all.
Report buddeliea January 29, 2017 11:34 AM GMT
Many clouds is a proper stayer,and to just get beat by one does not mean that Thistlectack is non stayer,but it does throw questions as to why he got beat.
We are talking about a short priced Gold Cup fav here taking on a Grand National winner who in his pomp a few years ago was a good horse at Gold Cup type distances,but not a top class Gold Cup horse.
To me the staying should not have entered into it if Thistle was as good as the Gold Cup odds suggest,he should have had the race won before the Many Clouds stamina kicked in.
The fact that he did not.....if I were a Thistle backer,that is what would be concerning me.
Why?
Way he was ridden? Ground? Jumping? Combination of some/all of those?
Whatever way I look at it,a fair few question marks now for the price he is for the Gold Cup.
Report impossible123 January 29, 2017 12:16 PM GMT
Wow, I see I have stepped on some toes here with my assertion Thistlecrack was outstayed by Many Clouds (RIP), the winner of a Grand National and stout stayer, and Thistlecrack would be unlikely to see out the Gold Cup distance and an uphill finish at Cheltenham.

It is not the 1st time and neither will it be the last posters have disagreed with me, but I do not apologise for it, why? Horse racing is mainly about the views of a person based on observation, form, etc; Thistlecrack had been winning his races easily up to a distance of 3m but in the slightly further Cotswold Chase he was found out by Many Clouds despite going the best of all (please do not blame the jockey); Thistlecrack was also leading just before the line - he would have won had it been Kempton - and Many Clouds would have won by a bigger margin had it been further yesterday eg Gold Cup distance.

Thistlecrack did not jump as well yesterday as in the King George - who'd have expected him to given his unforced errors the time before? Nevertheless, fences are there to be jumped especially at Cheltenham, and he did not make errors that cost him the race either yesterday. However, what concerns me the most is his inability to stay out the Cotswold trip better than Many Clouds; what chance would he have of staying the Gold Cup trip (no dolling of fences as a valid reason, please)? If Thistlecrack was in the mid-range of the betting market and not a short priced fav (2/1) opinions would not have been so divided and probably accepted by most.

After yesterday, and the Gold Cup being at Cheltenham Thistlecrack does not warrant a 2/1 price; he is definitely beatable even if jumping the last infront because I believe the extra distance and Cheltenham hill could be his nemesis.
Report dunlaying January 29, 2017 12:47 PM GMT
FOYSDC

Blocked for consistently talking crap.
Report ReaseHeath January 29, 2017 1:22 PM GMT
Imp, nobody disagreed Thistlecrack was outstayed but that's not what you wrote - you branded him a non stayer which is different.

I did n't talk about fences being dolled off either, no fences were omitted in yesterday's race to the best of my knowledge - I talked about the chase bends being dolled out to make yesterday's race distance close to the Gold Cup distance.

You clearly don't read other people's posts properly, you don't have the courtesy to acknowledge any of your frequent factual errors and your response when they are pointed out is to just rehash what you wrote previously.

I know I can go on a bit myself but try to take on board what other people post.

You claim to block posters frequently and plenty have been sufficiently exasperated by your contribution to block you - I can only assume your goal is to create threads which contain only an unbroken series of your own monotonous monologues.
Report BornToWin January 29, 2017 1:34 PM GMT
Brings a bit of interest back to the Gold Cup, just a shame it cost the life of a thoroughly admirable beast.

I think Thistle ought to be 3/1 after that, but all we get is 9/4 top price with a pretend bookie.
Report impossible123 January 29, 2017 3:03 PM GMT
ReaselHeath
There is no disputing the fact that Thistlecrack was outstayed and beaten by the ill-fated Many Clouds in the uphill Cheltenham finish despite the former going the best prior to and post last fence, and leading before the line over 3m in the Cotswold Chase.

For a horse that had been winning easily and repeatedly over 3m I'd be very concerned as a backer at short odds that Thistlecrack was outstayed in the Cotswold Chase - a race just over 1f further than he had been accomplishing in - this fact cannot be be dismissed for any reasons eg dolling off bends (the over-rans in the Stayers did not use the omission of hurdles as an excuse), jockeyship, ground, etc.

I cannot recall asserting Thistlecrack was a non-stayer but repeatedly reiterated Thistlecrack was outstayed in the Cotswold Chase and unlikely to stay the Gold Cup trip over 1f further given the new info at hand; I have also refrained from making comparisons about the courageous Many Clouds to others in the race and/or Gold Cup betting market constituents.

You (and others) may block me if you wish as I'm not afraid to be different to most - I'm used to and excelled at that in my profession; I like a non-monotonous, forward, incisive, thought provoking and challenging approaches from contributors otherwise the thread could be extremely boring and one-sided hence non-financial performing.

If yesterday's race was uncomfortable for Thistlecrack, his connections and/or supporters/backers the impending Gold Cup will be no different with the exception that there will be more able runners ready and willing to replicate the Cotswold Chase scenario/experience to him, I have little doubt.
Report ReaseHeath January 29, 2017 3:39 PM GMT

Jan 28, 2017 -- 8:30AM, impossible123 wrote:


Big oppose....he did not stay today's 3m Cotswold Chase - 3m 2.5f in the Gold Cup, even lesser chance, in my opinion.


^ that's you asserting he was a non stayer just over 24 hours ago so your memory is n't very good either.

The dolling out - not off - of the bends is in no way comparable to the omission of hurdles and is only relevant in the sense that it resulted in an extension to the distance of the race.

I'm becoming convinced that you're a wind up merchant though so I'll stop biting. Happy

Report dunlaying January 29, 2017 4:02 PM GMT
Rease , the thought crossed my mind that it might be Mr Hunt winding us up. Could it be him again?Laugh
Report ReaseHeath January 29, 2017 4:13 PM GMT
Shocked
Report impossible123 January 29, 2017 4:58 PM GMT
ReaselHeath
A wind-up merchant, I'm certainly not, but neither a sit on-the-fence individual either - I'm clinical in my decision making; I'm neither a follower of hyped/unknown horses nor high profile connections.
That was my initial reaction - 6 mins after the race and post sad episode about Many Clouds. Nothwithstanding, I still believe the Gold Cup distance and the hill finish at Cheltenham will be an insurmountable task for Thistlecrack post the Cotswold Chase.
Report sintonian January 29, 2017 4:59 PM GMT
Imp. You don't even understand what your typing. One minute your saying he's a non stayer, the next he got stayed.

Guess what, practically every horse in training would get ''outstayed'' by Many Clouds ffs. And, sadly, he won't be there in March.
Report unclepuncle January 29, 2017 5:19 PM GMT
All yesterdays performance did  is show he is not unbeatable as some posters on here ridiculously tried to claim.

He is still a leading player just in a wide open year.
Report buddeliea January 29, 2017 5:25 PM GMT
Yep, about sums it up pretty much.
Report ZenMaster January 29, 2017 5:54 PM GMT
Big oppose....he did not stay today's 3m Cotswold Chase - 3m 2.5f in the Gold Cup, even lesser chance, in my opinion.


By all means oppose Thistlecrack, but at least do your basic homework first before posting. Your inaccuracy about the distance is cringeworthy.

Jumping is the name of the game and Thistlecrack was not very fluent, which cost him many lengths and energy on Many Clouds. Yet he still managed to make it a ding dong battle to the line. The fact that Many Clouds gave his heart for that performance should not be overlooked.
Smad Place was 17L back in 3rd. This is the horse that gave Native River 11lbs in the Welsh National but managed to get within 10L
Then we have Silviniaco Conti further behind, beaten 20L

So, the fact that Thistlecrack beat these 160 rated horses by 20L could look so impressive. I believe Many Clouds dug so deep that he not only gave his life, he also ran to his best mark ever.
Report NOW WE KNOW January 29, 2017 6:48 PM GMT
Thistlecrack confuses me. Hurdling he was a total machine but not surprisingly as a novice chaser he has displayed brilliance but also weakness. Should this surprise us, not at all. The GC is relentless and personally I find him impossible to back at current odds as we already have an alibi in that his jumping is safe but not fluent and that would not usually win the race.

Not sure that yesterday proved anything other than the above, hugely talented and honest but at the moment a obvious weakness that makes him a horse I will watch and wish well on the day.
Report harry callaghan January 29, 2017 7:24 PM GMT
all well good looking to oppose thistlecrack but it also comes down to what you have running for you in the gold cup, hence his price... personally i think challengers are thin on the ground unless the ground were to be soft and i'm not sure the glue pot ground did for him yesterday myself, he certainly didn't jump with much fluency out of it but i thought he got a good education myself jumping in behind...it should also be remembered the 3 danger horses in the race love that ground

i'm still not actually sure what people were expecting yesterday, i didn't have him as far clear on ratings yesterday than the odds suggested and they had to drop him in so to educate him before the big day ahead, what yesterday did show is he is no world beater but i see no reason why he can't still run a big race come the day, he'll need to jump much better and i think better ground will be key for him but that also means he will have to jump at speed

i see no problem with him staying myself, jumping will be more key for me he will need to jump faster and really it will just come down to him being good enough...coneygree won a gold cup because he was just good enough to beat those horses, that day on his ideal ground





impossible 123 you are different to most posters in many ways i agree, just a shame you can't be different on another forum... i have a dog next door who likes to bark, it's constant at times when the owner is out but it is always the same annoying tone, you remind me of him in many ways, the way you ruined the arc thread last year will long live in the memory, in fact most threads you post on are ruined, it's just junk and without reasoning...like your opening post here, that you'll lay the horse come the day at anything around evens when you could lay it at 11/8 ante post at the time just doesn't make sense in fact nothing does where you are concerned
Report harry callaghan January 29, 2017 7:26 PM GMT
agree now we know with all of that
Report jasey January 29, 2017 7:55 PM GMT
Zen
why use Smad Place as a gauge last year he was in the form of his life and got beat 17 lengths in the KG and 38 lengths in the GC.
I think Thistlecrack can run 3 miles very very fast but that is what I see being his downfall.
Report ZenMaster January 29, 2017 8:25 PM GMT
Jasey

I used Smad Place as a gauge because he won the Cotswold by 12L last year, and has form tied in with Native River this season. He is a solid 160 rated animal in these events. He may not have run his race but the form of Saturdays race could read that Thistlecrack ran to his KG mark at least, but Many Clouds ran 8lbs better than he ever had and bust his heart doing so.
Report ZenMaster January 29, 2017 8:28 PM GMT
Just to add Jasey

Smad Place excels in soft ground so the KG and GC will have seen him outpaced against the real cream who bounce off the ground.
Report impossible123 January 30, 2017 7:51 AM GMT
Putting aside how and what one use to evaluate the Cotswold Chase/King George eg proximity/ratings/form of over-rans/winner - one could interpret it ways to suit or not - one thing must not be dismissed was how Thistlecrack went from going best of all to finding little or nothing so after the last fence, and especially up the Cheltenham hill.

I'd be very concerned that a regular and easy 3m hurdle winner (struggling) up the Cheltenham hill in the Cotswold Chase let alone the Gold Cup. Thistlecrack still deserves to be fav but not at 2/1 (next best is 6/1), I firmly believe, now that his stamina for the Gold Cup is not assured unlike the likes of Djakadam, Cue Card, Native River, Don Poli, Bristol De Mai, Minella Rocca, any of whom could outstay him up that Cheltenham hill finish.

As always, horse racing is mainly about opinions and as such time is the best judge of all, all things being equal.
Report unclepuncle January 30, 2017 9:43 AM GMT
How is Bristol De Mai assured of staying better the Gold Cup trip. The furthest he has run is exactly 3 miles on an easy flat track?
Report Desmond Orchard January 30, 2017 2:07 PM GMT
Because Imp says so uncle, have you learnt nothing from this thread. Even hard facts are not enough to sway the certainty. No doubt he is laying the b0ll0cks of Thistlecrack, even as we speak Crazy
FWIW, all horses 'stay' 3m or 4m or 5m, it's just a question of how quickly they are going. It's a world of difference 'staying' the Welsh national trip to still being in contention at the end of a Gold Cup (no slight on Native River who I think has a knocking chance, I'm generalising).
My view of Saturday is that if it didn't take too much out of Thistlecrack, it would have to be a beneficial experience - he's a novice and the experience can't have harmed - and that the form is the best on display. Nobody could argue that MC didn't run to his mark at least, the battering of the reliable Smad Place (who will have been cherry ripe for this as last years winner - although I concede that he wasn't knocked about after his chance was gone), means that you'd be hard pressed to not call it a high 160s performance.
But for a few awkward jumps, I think Thistlecrack would've won. He will need to iron those out, but looks capable of posting a 170+ back in March, which looks more than likely to be enough.
I'd be a backer on the day at anything over 5/2.
Report Desmond Orchard January 30, 2017 2:09 PM GMT
I would add that I don't think the jockey was unduly hard on him after the last either - and rightly so, the big day is in March.
MC certainly got more encouragement.
Report ZenMaster January 30, 2017 4:13 PM GMT
At first glance i thought that TC was a victim of his own energy sappy jumping errors, but the odd nod on landing, spending too much time in the air etc on second glance were not really the excuse.

TC had every chance, but was simply out battled on that ground with bigger/stronger horse ploughing through the glue better up the hill.
The covers had been on, and that can create a glue pot which makes it more energy sapping than normal and will blunt a faster animal.

Most of the GC contenders would have struggled in that ground.
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 30, 2017 4:55 PM GMT
I agree about the soft ground but I am sure the ground he lost by not jumping as fluently as the winner just as they were starting to really race ultimately cost him victory. He was only beaten a head and every slight error costs energy, especially on sapping ground.
Report impossible123 January 30, 2017 5:08 PM GMT
If any of these horses eg Native River, Cue Card, Djakadam, Don Poli, Minella Rocco or Bristol De Mai is in unison or no more than a length down to Thistlecrack after jumping the last fence in the Gold Cup my money will not be on Thistlecrack; if it is Bristol De Mai I would rather take a chance on Bristol De Mai rather than Thistlecrack up the Cheltenham hill post the Cotswold Chase.
Report nocturnal January 30, 2017 10:40 PM GMT
Easy to forget what a tremendous race that was.

Two horses giving their all,closely matched on the day,horse racing at it,s very best.

If the blue riband comes anywhere close,it will be a race to savour.

On official ratings there was 5 lbs between the pair,on ground probably more suited to the winner.

Very solid yardstick in 3rd was beaten out of sight.

The front two potentially ran personal bests,depending on how we interpret ratings.

Thistlecrack lost nothing in defeat,5th race since late october,long time to be at his peak.

Despite Tizzard sweeping all before him this season,I get the feeling this is the yards best horse,by some way.

Torn between getting experience into the horse,or wrapping him up,especially turning 9,he has taken on

allcomers, a credit to connections.

Certainly made the race more intriguing from a punting point of view.

Likely better ground,and a 6 week break,he remains the one to beat.
Report ZenMaster January 31, 2017 12:03 PM GMT
I agree about the soft ground but I am sure the ground he lost by not jumping as fluently as the winner just as they were starting to really race ultimately cost him victory. He was only beaten a head and every slight error costs energy, especially on sapping ground.

Yes agree, but on better ground TC would have won the race. So what was more important, his jumping or the ground?
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 31, 2017 2:20 PM GMT
I'm sure he would have won jumping as he did on the day on faster ground, so if his jumping improves for this experience and he gets faster ground on Gold Cup day he will take the beating in my view.
Report cyclops January 31, 2017 3:10 PM GMT
But on faster ground, his jumping would have been put under more pressure, not less.
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 31, 2017 3:40 PM GMT
I don't see why he would have jumped less fluently on faster ground.
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 31, 2017 3:45 PM GMT
What would concern me in the Gold Cup regarding his jumping is a bigger field, then his fluency would be put under pressure.
Report duffy January 31, 2017 4:05 PM GMT
If they are comfortable with his stamina then they should be gunning him from the front, if he's as classy as connections and many others think then the likes of CW and BDM wouldn't be able to prevent him leading (not if they didn't want to compromise themselves) then it's a case of jumping and galloping them into the ground and trusting the horse to do what they all thought he could.
Report impossible123 January 31, 2017 5:36 PM GMT
If so, will set it up nicely for Cue Card, Djakadam and Don Poli.
Report differentdrum January 31, 2017 6:29 PM GMT
They are not going to ride Thistlecrack forward for the simple reason they know he would almost certainly be a spent force well before the finish. Chances are he will still be well beaten if he is held up, but not quite so badly. For all those saying he stays why do you think they rode him that way on Saturday? Good ground for the Gold Cup would just mean they would go that much quicker and actually increase the stamina test.
Report FELTFAIR January 31, 2017 6:51 PM GMT
Don`t think Thistlecrack will be doing any "gunning" from the front. That role will be Native River`s and you pay your money and take a chance on who is going to get past him which will not be easy in my opinion.
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 31, 2017 6:53 PM GMT
He stays the trip perfectly well, whether he will be outstayed up the hill by a stronger stayer is another matter.
Report ZenMaster January 31, 2017 11:21 PM GMT
The Cotswold was the final 'education' before the Gold Cup. They rode him the way they did to teach him to jump those Cheltenham fences with other horses around/in front of him.
It wasn't a one dimensional 'hold on to him due to stamina concerns' decision at all.

In the Gold Cup the horse might be surrounded by other horses, so it made sense to give him experience of other horses jumping around him.
He may front run in the GC but i would suspect other riders will want to bother the horses, so Tom Scu & TC need to be prepared as much as possible.
Report buddeliea February 1, 2017 7:53 AM GMT
And that experience told us he struggled to cope,and his jumping suffered.
Backers best hope he has learnt quickly,especially any who may be lumping on at current prices!!
Report cyclops February 1, 2017 10:16 AM GMT
Jack Bauer, to answer your question.
While jumping out of the mud can make jumping harder, so can the extra pace they go on good ground. Don Cossack in the Gold Cup recorded a time 6 seconds quicker than Saturday's race, despite having a furlong further to travel.
A huge difference in speed and one which could cause a novice discomfort. Thistlecracks' King George win would have bee significantly slower than the Feltham had Might Bite stood up (it was only just quicker than the time Royal Vacation posted). He has not yet raced at Gold Cup speed over fences so this will be an additional challenge, should fast conditions prevail.
Report ReaseHeath February 1, 2017 11:09 AM GMT
Don Cossack did n't travel a furlong further in last season's Gold Cup than Thistlecrack did on Saturday. He only traveled 42 yards further.
Report ReaseHeath February 1, 2017 11:26 AM GMT
I don't do my own speed figures and maybe somebody who does would like to comment.

However, according to the Raceform speed ratings, Thistlecrack achieved a better figure on Saturday than he has ever done before over hurdles or fences and better than the rating Don Cossack achieved in winning last year's Gold Cup.
Report cyclops February 1, 2017 12:14 PM GMT
Just checked and hadn't realised the extent of the added distance on Saturday, so stand corrected.

I'm not a speed man either, although Topspeed ratings for the two races assess Don Cossack at 167, Thistlecrack 151.

However, the point remains valid - in a good going Gold Cup, Thistlecrack is likely to be travelling much quicker than he has so far over fences.
Report ReaseHeath February 1, 2017 12:41 PM GMT
I accept that but I'm taking the view that he's better equipped to travel at that speed than most of his likely opposition. His inexperience is an issue obviously and he might make jumping errors (though he's not alone in that either).

Last year only three could go the gallop ultimately - Don Cossack won't be back unfortunately and there are question marks about Cue Card based on his age and his performance on Boxing Day. Djakadam would have every chance but his performance at Christmas was a little disappointing too and he's come up short twice.

All the rest have more question marks against them than Thistlecrack.

He got beaten at 4/9 and his sequence of 9 unbeaten races came to an end - but in terms of experience gained and his performance over what was virtually Gold Cup C&D, he actually enhanced his Gold Cup prospects on Saturday for me.

There's no point in getting involved now - if the bookies have a good week (and it's shaping up as if they might), they'll be out to get him on the Friday morning.Can see 5/2 or even 3/1 being available and, as things stand, I'd be interested in getting involved then.
Report dyno-layer February 1, 2017 1:21 PM GMT
There has to be a possibility that whatever chance he had of winning the Gold Cup was left on the battlefield of prestbury park at the weekend.
Report Jack Bauer '24' February 1, 2017 2:34 PM GMT
My view has always been that he will jump better the faster he goes because he has such a high cruising speed and that the slight mistakes he made in his early races were due to him not going fast enough and slightly losing concentration.

Good ground and a faster pace would not concern me, in fact I think it would suit him. A big field where his jumping would be put under pressure by plenty of experienced quick, fluent jumpers would be a concern as he would have to jump as fluently as them to not keep losing ground at every fence that would then have to be made up expending further energy.
Report impossible123 February 1, 2017 3:04 PM GMT
I think on good ground Thistlecrack is worth a punt at 3/1 - the danger could be Djakadam; soft, Cue Card, Djakadam, Native River and BMD; heavy/tacky, Don Poli, Native River and Minella Rocco.
Report duffy February 1, 2017 3:22 PM GMT
^
the rest you meanWink
Report ZenMaster February 1, 2017 4:58 PM GMT
Absolutely agree with Impossible 123 here.

If Thistlecrack does not win the Gold Cup, one of the others will.
Report GI MAC February 1, 2017 7:00 PM GMT
Laugh
Report dunlaying February 2, 2017 11:29 AM GMT
Just out of interest is there still anybody out there who believes Thistlecrack to be as good as Arkle?
Report cyclops February 2, 2017 1:34 PM GMT
Tom Segal wrote on Saturday that he thought he was the best jumper he'd ever seen which was quite a statement.
Report duffy February 2, 2017 1:59 PM GMT
bonkers statement, even before Saturdays race.
Report duffy February 2, 2017 2:04 PM GMT
Segal would be basing that statement on an impressive round of jumping in the KG. Well he wouldn't be the first horse to do likewise around there where a horse's jumping can be impressive when they can get into that rhythm, put it in around Cheltenham before we make those type of judgements.
Report Howdi February 4, 2017 7:41 PM GMT
cyclops • February 2, 2017 1:34 PM GMT
Tom Segal wrote on Saturday that he thought he was the best jumper he'd ever seen which was quite a statement......he said he was the best horse he had ever seen
Report Howdi February 4, 2017 7:42 PM GMT
he also said Altior was better than sacre -
Report Howdi February 4, 2017 7:45 PM GMT
Handicapper wasnt having it either KG win was low 170 mark. Worth remembering that Kauto Star was 193 at his peak
Report ZenMaster February 5, 2017 3:38 PM GMT
You can't expect TC to have reached his chasing peak after 5 starts can you? even at the age of 9 there must be more to come.

Kauto hit the 193 after 23 chase starts. We could say that Thistlecrack is probably at peak physical maturity for chasing but more improvement will come with more experience surely?
Report Howdi February 5, 2017 9:08 PM GMT
i was just pointing out that clowns like Segal saying he was the best horse he'd ever seen - have short memories!
Report ZenMaster February 6, 2017 9:49 AM GMT
Perhaps there will be an adjustment in perceptions once his career is over but if TC has an OR of 171 after 5 chase starts then one could expect him to hit 180+ before the end.

Then if you combine what he achieved over hurdles and chasing then some may well want to measure him above Kauto Star, because World Hurdle winners do not win King George's the next season after only 3 chase starts. This is what is remarkable about the horse.

Kauto met with many defeats before he reached his peak and there were defeats afterwards of course. They can't run at peak every race, so expect more from TC and hope that he delivers.
Report impossible123 February 6, 2017 11:24 AM GMT
The early retirement of Don Cossack, the untimely but tragic death of Vautour and possibly No More Heroes have very much lessened the quality and standard of this year's Gold Cup.

It is far too early and imprudent to be comparing Thistlecrack with Kauto Star who has achieved significantly more over chases; Thistlecrack did not even manage to beat Many Clouds in a chase over a distance further than the former has ever gone before but less than the Gold Cup.

I'd reconsider my opinion if Thistlecrack beat Cue Card and Djakadam - a good guide to previous Gold Cups - next month.
Report ZenMaster February 6, 2017 11:53 AM GMT
And Kauto Star couldn't even beat Our Vic at Aintree. So your point is?

Let's judge these horses on the best form not the days when conditions or whatever go against them. So why are you judging him on one race in gluey conditions after only 5 chase starts?
TC will never win as many GI's as Kauto Star nor perhaps get as high a rating but he will more than likely rule the roost for 2 seasons and potentially be one the of the best ever.
Report cyclops February 6, 2017 12:41 PM GMT
Always fascinating to see how people assess greatness in horses.

Highest rating, consistency, who beat them, who they beat, versatility, longevity, consistency. It might be of interest to reproduce the stats I dug out on the Don Cossack thread:

There have been 40 performances this century that have been rated 175 and more by the Racing Post in chases of 3 miles plus (I've included the Betfair Chase when it was only 2m7f and the odd other one just short of 24f). It's possible I've missed the odd one.


191   Kauto Star
185   Kauto Star
184   Kauto Star, Denman
183   Denman (Twice)
182   Kauto Star, Don Cossack, Imperial Commander
181   Kauto Star, Don Cossack, Long Run (3 times)
180   Kauto Star, Denman, Don Cossack, Cue Card (3 times), Long Run
179   Bob's Worth
178   Kauto Star, Denman, Don Cossack (Twice), Cue Card, Best Mate, Coneygree, First Gold
177   Imperial Commander, Kicking King (3 times)
176   Kauto Star, Denman, Cue Card, Best Mate
175   Kauto Star, Coneygree

So the only horses to appear more than twice are:

Kauto Star       9
Denman           6
Don Cossack      5
Cue Card         5
Long Run         3
Kicking King     3 

And, just to round off the survey, these are the top chasers this century over all distances, in terms of the number of times they exceeded 175.

Kauto Star          17 times from 31 starts (55%)
Sprinter Sacre       8 from 18 (44%)
Don Cossack          7 from 19 (37%)
Cue Card             7 from 24 (29%)
Denman               6 from 19 (32%)
Master Minded        5 from 25 (20%) 

While we can all argue about the rating of an individual race, the accumulation of stats is probably as near definitive as can be achieved and there probably wouldn't be a lot to argue over the relative positions of many in the tables above. The enigma is probably Imperial Commander who, in 16 chases, only exceeded a 170 rating just 3 times, and often ran like a dog, but beat Kauto Star and Denman to win the Gold Cup and ran Kauto Star to a nose at Haydock. Where he'd stand in the pantheon, I wouldn't know.
Report impossible123 February 6, 2017 1:50 PM GMT
I think supporters of Thistlecrack are still very much clinging to his scintillating KG victory despite the under-performance of Cue Card (proximity of others to him) and his defeat by Many Clouds up the Cheltenham hill in the Cotswold Chase; Thstlecrack deserves to be fav but not at 7/4 (at least 2x I believe) because there will be many who are prepared and willing to take him on from the start; the Cheltenham hill is another factor that could be the deciding factor (if) he is still in contention.

The Gold Cup is more open than the present market is suggesting.
Report neill d February 6, 2017 4:41 PM GMT
As always, horse racing is mainly about opinions and as such time is the best judge of all, all things being equal.

the untimely but tragic death of Vautour and possibly No More Heroes have very much lessened the quality and standard of this year's Gold Cup

Like reading google translate!
Report buddeliea February 6, 2017 5:30 PM GMT
Well at this stage,Thistlecrack has won the King George impressively,though the opposition has to be questioned......11 year old Cue Card who may or may not be regressing,Conti who has definitely regressed and Josses Hill and Tea for two.
Then he lost to Many Clouds who is not a top class three miler.

He could go on to achieve great things,its very early in his chase career,but right now he is far from a great and far from any comparism to Kauto Star.
Report impossible123 February 6, 2017 6:01 PM GMT
Let's hope the Cotswold has not taken too much out of him otherwise he'd not be in contention at the last fence in the forthcoming Gold Cup given the likelihood of the race being more gruelling than the Cotswold; his air of invincibility has been gravely tarnished but not diminished (yet).
Report unclepuncle February 6, 2017 10:00 PM GMT
his air of invincibility has been gravely tarnished but not diminished (yet).

Tried google translate but it says 'does not compute'.Laugh
Report Jack Bauer '24' February 7, 2017 2:31 PM GMT
The sentence does does not make sense. Something cannot be tarnished without being diminished in some way.
Report duffy February 7, 2017 3:17 PM GMT
I concur, replace not diminished with not extinguished and we're all goodGrin
Report impossible123 February 7, 2017 4:59 PM GMT
Apology, typo error. It should have been extinguished and not diminished - the mind and the hand were out-of-sync there.
Report shockster February 21, 2017 12:50 PM GMT
Well done opposers. You win.
Report impossible123 February 21, 2017 3:34 PM GMT
Commiseration to backers of Thistlecrack.

Opinions aside it is nothing but a hollow victory, one that is not expected or wished for.
Report sickoflayinwinners February 21, 2017 3:49 PM GMT
i guess todays news suggests he may have bee  carrying a tiny  injury when beaten by many clouds, i think  gizzards interview today  said as much
Report sickoflayinwinners February 21, 2017 3:49 PM GMT
tizzard
Report penzance February 26, 2017 7:12 PM GMT
TC back into 8s,on here.
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