Long Walk Hurdle (saturday 17th Dec)

Why don't you tell us what you think?

Fyi this is a penalty kick for Unowhatimeanharry, all things being equal of course, and I'd expect it to be odds-on come race day.

Be very interested to see Hendo run the mare but doubt JP will want that. She's a very interesting recruit

'All things being equal' - what kind of get out clause is that?

If he doesn't win then it's because he wasn't good enough on the day - end of.
If it was as easy as you try to make out you would be too busy sailing your super yacht
around the mediterranean to bother posting banal crap like this.

All things being equal Liverpool would have beaten West Ham yesterday but that's the whole point of
sport - glorioys uncertainty.

Also 20% of penalties are missed.

All things being equal basically mean if the horse is sound, runs, suitable ground and no late gatecrasher eg Thistlecrack, prior to final decs but the last two mentioned are not applicable to Unowhoimeanharry or here.

I don't see how it's a penalty kick. No less than six of the other entries have already won Grade 1 hurdles over 3 miles plus. I'd be surprised if he goes off odds on too. Thistlecrack's SP in the race last year was 2/1 and he was at least as impressive as Unowwhatimeanharry in the corresponding Newbury race.

If he does go off odds on then there will surely be value to be had elsewhere. Unowhatimeanharry is admirable and the likeliest winner but his rating looks a bit inflated to me - Ballyoptic was put up 7lbs after falling at Wetherby to 159 - and assumed to have ran to 159 at Newbury, making Unowwhatimeanharry 165 for beating him 6 lengths. He might be that good but I don't think he's proved it yet.

pretty good betting heat this...very interested to see whether the french horse is declared

I'm having a dip on the Romford Pele at 40/1 ew

Good chance of the race properly cutting up too looking at them. Bookmakers offering 3 places and B365 1/4 odds will do for me each way thievery. Going to take me chances with the french one Alex De Laredya each way and Lil Rockerfella unless someone points out to me between now and 09:00 ish that he isn't an intended starter

rp not there so now going for ballyoptic

I've sided with Alex De Larredya at 6/1. He's a Grade 1 winner, stays well and has a turn of foot. I've heard he needs soft ground though in France it seems that's all they ever encounter and he hasn't got a round action so I think good to soft will be fine. How he handles the pace today is unknown. I don't know how he'll handle our hurdles either. Apparently he's been schooled over them in France and if they were going to be a problem I'm assuming they'd have swerved this race. What I do know is the horse is a nimble jumper. If you look at the video of his last race he had to jump a fallen horse straight after jumping a hurdle and he did it with ease. He jumped right going left-handed at Auteuil so will be better suited to Ascot. I hope this horse wins as I'd like to see more French trainers having a go over here. Their prize money is on average far better than ours so I can see why they don't usually bother. One thing I would say is I have a complete blind spot with Unowhatimeanharry. I backed him several times while he was with Helen Nelmes, so bearing in mind she ran him eleven times over hurdles without winning and he was able to run at Cheltenham as a novice in his third season over the obstacles, in my mind there is a ceiling on his ability which refuses to shift. If he wins today it will have to shift, I will have to back him for the World Hurdle and that will be the time for everyone else to lay him.

Backed Un Temps Pour Tout and Lil Rockerfeller each way.

I've backed Ptit Zig 10/1 win only.

Imo there is two bits of form we can rely on in this race. Egg on face time if the reverse the placings

Alex De Larredya beat Ptit Zig off levels last time when a convincing and easy winner

UnowhatimeanHarry beat Ballyoptic easily off levels when an easy and convincing winner last time out

After posting the other day i had another look and imo i make this a match between them two Alex and Uno, one was 7/1 at time of my posting, the other was 5/4

I'll cry foul if West Approach wins this after his performance last time.

That was good from Unowhatimeanharry. Might even run Thistlecrack very close should the latter is diverted to the World Hurdle.

I thought I had one to beat him but you can't take anything away from the horse. It's not his fault he started his career with a garbage trainer.

Yep, he's proved it now and the proximity of Ballyoptic going to the last validates the form of last year's novices (not that further proof is needed).

The handicapper has it right - should've known it really, apparently Fry rang him to complain that his rating after he'd won at Exeter meant he'd have to take on Barters Hill in the Albert Bartlett instead of running in a handicap at the festival to which the handicapper replied along the lines of: ' yes, and I think your horse will beat him'.

Anyway, that makes it even more likely that Yanworth will be headed down the Champion Hurdle route.

Well done, winners.

JP seems to have bought a few gems lately eg Unowhatimeanharry, Landofhopeandglory, Buveur D'air, Yanworth, etc.

The people who are responsible for allocating weights to horses in a race ie handicappers, are they allowed to bet or would that be construed as a conflict of interest by the BHA? These people seem to be more correct than wrong in my opinion.

impossible123
17 Dec 16 18:43

These people seem to be more correct than wrong in my opinion.


In a handicap race these 'people' are suppossed to have allocated the ratings / weights so that every horse has an equal chance - they should in theory all dead heat (unless out of the handicap). So unless a horse turns out under a penalty which doesn't match his hike in the ratings and is therefore 'well in' there is no way for these people to be right more often than not?

If you mean the highest official rated horse at the weights going into a graded race wins most often - well who'd a thunk it.

Wellk done Feltfair with getting second and third. I backed the winner to win and Ballyoptic place only so feel a bit aggrieved about the place bet.