Betfair Chase (19t Nov)

Not out yet.  Entries close at Noon tomorrow 1st November and will be revealed on Wednesday I believe.

shockster,

Thank-you, may I ask how and where you look this up? I'm not clued up when it is the National Hunt. My main reference for 'early entries' is usually the Racing Post 'Big Race Entries' but there is usually a big gap eg The Hennessy Gold Cup and Morgiana Hurdle 'probables' are up but not the Betfair Chase, an earlier event.

Cue Card could be a 'backable' price post saturday defeat (I hope) as long as the WPM/RW/RR stalwarts do not gatecrash eg Djakadam and Vautour.

123 I just googled it.  The info was on a site called Racing Better.  Looks a useful site and worth a look.  Like you I use Racing Post for Decs etc.

Cue card will be backable, but I wouldn't be confident of him beating Coneygree on soft ground after Saturdays showing.  As always though it depends on who turns up and the ground conditions.

I think too much use of Cue Card in the Charlie Hall and 1st race of the season contributed to his defeat; I understand he is almost a year older and unlikely to improve further but I hope he is not regressing. And at 11/4, and on a track he likes I would like to think (and hope) he is a better proposition than Coneygree, form wise using Djakadam as a guide, and Coneygree's year long absence since his last run.

I'm looking forward to a trip down to Haddock for this one.

I'll be going to Haydock, great days racing.

123 - Until we know the ground conditions it's very difficult.  I'd say they ran Cue Card like they did last year. Very disappointing that he finished behind an older Menorah especially.  At least we'll know the runners tomorrow, if not the ground.

22 Betfair Chase entries


BALLYNAGOUR (IRE)
BLAKLION
CONEYGREE
CUE CARD
DON POLI (IRE)
DYNASTE (FR)
FINE RIGHTLY (IRE)
GOD'S OWN (IRE)
HOLYWELL (IRE)
IRISH CAVALIER (IRE)
LE MERCUREY (FR)
MENORAH (IRE)
MORE OF THAT (IRE)
OUTLANDER (IRE)
ROI DES FRANCS (FR)
SAPHIR DU RHEU (FR)
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT
SILVINIACO CONTI (FR)
UN TEMPS POUR TOUT (IRE)
VEZELAY (FR)
VIBRATO VALTAT (FR)
VICENTE (FR)

Coneygree will have a racecourse gallop tomorrow at Haydock.  After which the Bradstocks will decide whether he is fit enough to take his chance in next weeks Betfair Chase or wait another week for the Hennessy.  If all goes well it will be the Betfair as that is the preferred choice.

Conti had on/off physical niggles last season but ran with plenty of old zip at Down Royal but the ground was against him.
Back on soft ground and that race under his belt i expect him to be a tough nut to crack at Haydock.
Cue Card has been beaten in his last 2 races at odds on, has he lot his enthusiasm, perhaps too early to say but there are question marks. Coneygree will surely need the race but maybe still be too good .... however

Conti for me at 12.5 Betfair prices or around 10/1 with the books.

The ground at Down Royal was good/good to yielding which should not be taken as an excuse for the below par performance of Silviniaco Conti (SC); SC was beaten too far to be confident an improvement in the Betfair Chase despite a much improved and promising run by the victor, Valseur Lido, a horse I believe would be a serious contender for the King George if given the chance.

On the other hand Cue Card (CC) had had a very hard season when beaten in the Irish Gold Cup after falling in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and winning at Aintree - he ought not to have run in the Irish Gold Cup; he was also asked to do too much too early - he would be held up next time, I can confidently predict. If CC is beaten in this race then one can safely conclude CC has regressed because of his age.

If you go back to the Charlie Hall 2014 you will see Silviniaco Conti getting beaten on good ground on his debut.
Then 3 weeks later he wins the Betfair Chase on SOFT ground.

Conti can not grind his opposition into the ground when it's riding GOOD,
He needs SOFT ground to be effective to his maximum potential.

Ground is key.
And to suggest he won't improve from his seasonal debut because he was *beaten too far* is also an odd statement.

CONEYGREE was set on a path towards a £1 million bonus bid on Wednesday after working at Haydock in preparation for a tilt at the Betfair Chase. Last year's Gold Cup winner worked well enough – "it couldn't have gone better" in the words of connections – to get the nod to contest the first leg of Jockey Club Racecourses' Chase Triple Crown a week on Saturday, when he is set to clash with the likes of Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti.

The winner will be in line for the monster bonus and would claim it if subsequently landing the 32Red King George VI Chase and Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Unable to gallop Coneygree at home on grass because of the dry autumn, Mark and Sara Bradstock boxed him up the M6 to exercise and returned to Oxfordshire favouring the Betfair Chase over the Hennessy Gold Cup, provided there is cut in the ground.

Sara Bradstock said: "It was wonderful to find some soft ground. Coneygree went two miles under Nico de Boinville. He went with some youngsters and then Carruthers jumped in at the end to keep him going. It couldn't have gone better." De Boinville said: “He gave me a great feel and the gallop will have done him the world of good.”

"The plan has always been to go back to Haydock but it will have to keep raining," continued Bradstock. "I can tell everybody today that the ground there was beautiful.

"We wouldn't consider running on anything other than safe ground, which for him is the soft side of good; the softer the better. He's in the Hennessy in case he doesn't run in the Betfair.

"We've always tilted at windmills with him so we thought we should give the £1 million a go. This leg's the one that would be the hardest because Haydock is a flat, relatively fast three miles.

Coneygree is 3-1 second favourite for the Betfair Chase behind 7-4 market leader Cue Card.

seeyouatmidnight, anyone got any info if its this race or the hennessey ?

More likely to be the Betfair than the Hennessy according to Thomson quote in Pricewise Hennessy preview on Thursday but the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle is also under serious consideration.

He hinted the ground would be a determining factor - not a great deal of rain in the forecast for Haydock area this week at the mo' - so I'll be waiting for final decs and a better idea of the ground personally.

Thomson does n't sound keen on Hennessy - a long way to travel, very competitive, could leave your season there and still not win.

Dunno whether he's one of those trainers prone to changing their mind though.

cheers for info, RH.

Richard Johnson to ride Coneygree if he's available.   Can't see any negatives to that.

I have managed to get a sliver of 12s on Silvi Conti from Hills, I suspect he's too big at that. With the doubts about the front two I think I'd rather have two at 10s than one at 2s. Would love to see Coneygree bounce back though,and looking forward to the day.

What about God's Own for a spec e/w?  The trip might suit him and he has a touch of class.

Is the Haydock area getting as much rain as the west of Scotland is? Monsoon season up here. Anyone close by?

Apparently it's now SOFT on all courses.

Im currently about ten miles away as the crow flies... and its nothing short of biblical and has been most of the morning. I think heavy going is nailed on.

Seeyouatmidnight at 8/1 for me. Think he will be most inconvenienced by the underfoot conditions. Could be a really gruelling return for Coneygree.

I'm on Vezelay 66/1 ew 3 places, basically through process of elimination.

Coneygree...is fragile. This will only be his 2nd run in 19 months, has a new jockey and is, IMO, overrated..his feltham win came in a race strewn with errors where half the field never finished, he beat moderate horses in the Denmam and won a poor renewal of the GC, in which, going into the race, he was in the form of his life. Next time out was only a 3 runner race and we learned nothing. Don't like horses running in a grade 1 without a prep.

Cue Card...went to Wetherby in rude health, had worked well at home and had a racecourse gallop, yet was still beaten by a handicapper and a perennial dodgepot. Could well improve for his pipe opener, but IMO, 3 grade 1 races in 6 weeks in the spring have bottomed him.

Irish Cavalier....a handicapper who is rated between a rock and a hard place? Could improve again, but 3rd run in 6 weeks suggests he will struggle.

Menorah...wonderfully consistent over the years given 2.5m plus, flat tracks and good ground. We're looking at heavy going And has not won a grade 1 in over 4 years.

Seeyouatmidnight...very good chance granted a stamina test and bad ground. Will get it here but a nagging doubt that an undulating course would suit better.

Silviniaco Conti...should improve for his comeback run and is still capable of mixing it at the highest level despite knocking 11 years of age.

Vezelay....the baby of the field yet has done a large amount of racing in the past few years. Has 1 decent piece of form at the highest level and is well suited to a stamina test on bad ground. Has been prepped twice in the past 2 months over hurdles over inadequate trips, which is quite eye opening.

forecast is for a bright sunny clear cold day

In Greenland maybe!

Don't know what forecast you are looking at Dragon, but on the one I'm looking at, it's forecast to p1ss down at Hayfock most of the day.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2647265

Another cold and frosty start. Lighter winds than Friday. Some showers, but these less heavy and less frequent than on Friday, with many places dry with sunny spells.

off bbc website for Haydock - was thinking of going but don't know if Mrs Dragon will go at 5 degrees!!! Expect a big crowd!

I live in Cheshire and they gave ran all day today - lovely and sunny all morning with intermittent cloud

I've just driven right past the course on the M6 mate. The sky was jet black and it was absolutely hammering down! I'll be really surprised if its not got heavy in the description somewhere.

Where are you?!

live just out side Northwich ccm  pleasant day here

Nice one. Yeah one of those days I think... very different weather a few miles apart.

Coneygree for me. I have nothing to offer regarding the seriousness and recoverability from his injury, and that has to be a concern, but I got the impression they gave him plenty of time and they've brought him back in fine form before. I don't think he's overrated. His progression the season before last was exceptional. I reckon Colin Tizzard will find out this season just how hard it is to get a novice to win the Gold Cup.

horses look like they are splashing around   not good I reckon we might see quiet a few withdrawals esp if there is more rain

I doubt Menorah will run - which will allow Johnson to partner Coneygree - but I'd still expect all the others to take part - the £1 million bonus is a decent carrot.

Irish Cavalier's connections expressed reservations about the ground earlier in the week but you'd think they'd want to find out whether he can build on his Charlie Hall form.

going has now been changed to heavy

my weather still have an inch to come overnight

Looks like Menorah is now a non runner..

bright sunny and frosty in Cheshire this morning about half an hours drive from the grounfd

Never been a Conti man but his price is wild - it seems the world and his wife have written him off.  With a run under his belt on this track on this ground I just have to support him.  Hope his jockey is on a going day.

Backed Coneygree and Cue Card win.

Very well done Colin Tizzard. In interview he spoke about Thistlecrack schooling. Said he'd dragged his legs through the first. I've never, ever heard a trainer report a schooling error before. Great bloke and deserves his success. In comparison, can you imagine Mullins telling the truth?

Yes.

You've got a vivid imagination

He was interviewed today on At The Races and was quite open about plans for  his horses.

Aye, until he changes them the day before the race. As Tony Keenan said, I wouldn't trust The Lord's Prayer coming out of his mouth.

In life I have always trusted people and have not regretted it.

Well done Twonky - good call on your 66/1 each way outsider...

Was difficult going outside the top 2 - so was a very brave selection to go for that horse considering complete outsider...

Didn't back it, but a very good call.

The lesson of the race was that at a searching gallop set by Coneygree, Cue Card was able to lob along a couple of lengths behind, then power away while 3 other high class horses were beaten off by soon after halfway. That might well prove to be the best ever performance by Cue Card.

i agree with sageform

a repeat will see a 2nd KG come his way

would leave coneygree off now, till the coswold or denman now, before the GC

Cheers Iris, quite happy with the outcome..Coney ran better than I thought he would, but I'm still not convinced, whilst I think that Cue Card is getting more stamina as he gets older, which, IMO, would make him vulnerable in the king George.