Sunday, November 27th JAPAN CUP (G1) Nominated Horses from Overseas

Harzand seems an unlikely entry wonder if he's about to be sold to over there?

not many from GB

biggest list ive seen in the past 10 years ( provisional early entries for the Japan Cup?

Clearly down to Aiden O Brien- if i remember correctly i think he has only ever had 1 runner in this race being Joshua Tree ...which came last 17th of 17.

I could be wrong - will have a look.

this race is there for the taking for an overseas runner as good as found or highland reel

Backed Sounds Of Earth at 18-1 EW, ran well in this race last year and was not far behind Shonan Pandora. He also nearly won last years Arima Kinen (backed him EW) when he nearly got past past Gold Actor on the line. Sounds Of Earth ran a good prep at Kyoto after a long break, Mirco Demuro who will be on board again gave him a pretty easy ride from off the pace but he finished strongly and was only just over a length behind Kitasan Black at the finish. Big price difference between him and the market leaders but he his not that far behind them IMO.

Cannot knock Kitasan Black's consistency which is superb but his worst race was at Tokyo (1m 4f), that is a slight worry for me but he has won at the track before. He will not be far away... the Japanese love him.

Real Steel is a horse I like a lot but I'm not sure 12f is his best trip and his trainer thinks the same. RS an a cracker in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) running joint fastest final sectional with Staphanos, that race has been the best prep race for the Japan Cup over the last few years. Ryan Moore will be riding so will be a big danger but the trip might find him out at the finish IMO.

Gold Actor is the one I fear most over this trip/course but the price difference between him and Sounds OF Earth made my mind up.

I think the draw is Friday, so I might have another dabble after that.

Erupt, Nightflower and Iquitos are the only foreign runners I think.  Shame.

Yep, you're correct Headmaster, just those three!!!

The prize money is amazing, why European trainers don't target this race is baffling IMO.

*Should have put more European trainers!

Especially as I'm not convinced the home team is particularly strong this year, Mr Dee.  Where's Flintshire when you need him? Order Of St George?  Ulysses?  Siljan's Saga even?!

Baffling indeed

The home team have had a strangle hold on this race over the last decade, Alkaased was the last foreign winner (2005)... maybe that puts the Euro trainers off!? The Japan QEII Cup and Champions Mile hasn't had a Euro raider for a few years either, weird!

Yep, I've always thought Flintshire should have had a go in this, he loved a rock hard track.

real steal was very unlucky in the Tenno sho............stall 12............look at the ground he made up over 10f...........this is 12f............he won at dubai earlier this year

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PbIa-L20x8

Draw was today!

Real Steel has drawn 16, which ain't great! Kitasan Black has drawn low... again in 1, Gold Actor drawn low as well in 3. Not brilliant for Sounds Of Earth drawn 12.

Thought these 2 docs were a good read

Profile of Japanese Horses - http://japanracing.jp/_news2016/pdf/161124-05.pdf

Profile of Invited Horses- http://japanracing.jp/_news2016/pdf/161124-04.pdf

I too like this Sounds Of Earth and the horses connections , and i think Iquitos is a bit interesting over 1m4 if the ground is fast....... and is possibly not fully exposed - his last run was on soft ground, and his run prior to that was very odd...its my opinion that the jockey didn't even put the horse in the race. I was impressed by the manner of his win in the GROSSER PREIS VON BADEN (GROUP 1). 66/1 looks very big with that long straight...going to have an interest ew.

Saying that i cant be confident on any picks i may make- the Japanese have really shown in the last 10 years that they are hard to beat in their top race...so much so  that its becoming almost a no go area for foreign trainers. I think the last foreign winner was Cumani's Alkaased in 2005 but that was before Japanese racing really got firing witf their breeding farms and the increase of trainers and horses.

What makes you think Iquitos is better on good ground, especially when you consider his last run an outliner, and his other form on soft to heavy reads 122. I don´t think the leading German crop are very competitive internationally, with the possible exception of retired Protectionist and Potemkin. That being said I backed Ivanhowe ew at 71-1 in a better field and he finished a length outside the places.

He is quite lightly raced this Iquitos.

I agree somewhat on the current German crop - but i think this one is more unexposed and has scope. Everyone was saying that before Danedream won the arc in 2011- German horses have a stigma attached to them because of who they race against in Germany and i think its unwise to do so given how their Group 1 winners are campaigned.

I think he is better horse on good ground (in this grade), imo his runs and wins on better ground have been more visually impressive to the eye.

Dont get me wrong - its not as if he has beat much and im not jumping up and down - by i just get the feeling that his run in the GROSSER PREIS VON BADEN may have been the race that they finally got to the bottom of the horse i.e how to use its tactical speed and impressive turn of foot on fast ground.

His runs of heavy or soft are there to be seen - and its nothing really that needs to much focus on imo. He is a lightly raced horse in my book and his runs on better ground have been better and more fruitful.

Not sure about the Jockey though - IAN FERGUSON ? cant bode well in a race like the Japan Cup when Starke is apparently taking the mount on NIGHTFLOWER.

Ive had an ew bet on the Yoshida horse "Sounds Of Earth" that Dinos put up a few days back at 18/1 - i always take note when i see those colours running in the best Japanese races.

this is a weak japan cup........probably one of the worst in history.......the three year olds are poor........o'brien should have kept found or highland reel for this instead of going to america..........flintshore would have won it........

Training Report of Foreign Entries
Japan Autumn International
The 36th Japan Cup (G1)

November 25, 2016 (Friday)



Weather: Fine
Going: Sloppy (dirt course)



Erupt (IRE, C4, by bay)

- jogged approx. 950m, cantered lightly 1,400m, walked 500m, fast canter 1,400m (dirt course)
(exercised from 7:38 to 7:59, ridden by Aurelien Bellei)

"The horse is physically ready – he doesn't need to do any hard work because he's ready for the race. This morning he moved nicely and he seems to be in good health. He didn't have a strong blow after work and he trotted back really nicely, which is what I wanted to see.

"I think we ended up with a fair draw (No.8) — not too much inside nor outside, and it's the same stall when we won the Canadian International.

"Tomorrow he will do the same work as he did today."

(comments taken from Francis-Henri Graffard)


Iquitos (GER, C4, bay)

- jogged approx. 1,900m, cantered 2,300m (dirt course)
(exercised from 7:27 to 7:47, ridden by Ian Ferguson)

"His condition is very good. Today he moved faster than we hoped with Nightflower coming up from behind. We are happy with the draw (No.5).

"Since there hasn't been much of an interval after his last race, he's fit and ready. We'll just hand-walk him tomorrow to freshen him up."

(comments taken from Hans-Jurgen Groschel)

“He’s fresh and well. The ground is obviously drier, we went a little bit more near in the middle of the track where the ground’s not so deep and he felt really good on it today.”

(comments taken from Ian Ferguson)


Nightflower (IRE, F4, chestnut)

- jogged approx. 1,900m, cantered 2,300m (dirt course)
(exercised from 7:27 to 7:47, ridden by Patrick Gibson)

"She quickened her pace to catch up with Iquitos this morning, but she's in good form and has been tuned up well.

"I have to say that we're a little disappointed with her draw (No.15) but we just hope that she doesn't get blocked in the stretch this year.

"Tomorrow she'll do a slow canter alone."

(comments taken from Peter Schiergen)

I've added Erupt at 18-1 EW (B365) after rewatching a few races. He was shuffled back badly in last years race coming into the home straight which cost him a few lengths and his Woodbine win was more cosy than I first thought. With a good draw (8) like last year and a jockey on board who has been in magnificent form all year made my mind up... which did change a number of times!!!

Sound Of Earth 18-1 EW
Erupt 18-1 EW

Good luck with your bets.

*Sounds Of Earth!

Going to be interesting race - i just cant be confident on anything really.

I could easily put up 8+ runners who on current or past form look to either have a chance or could cause a shock.

Great thread guys.

I have had a punt E/W on Tosen Basil at 100/1. His form last year before he was injured ties in with the top two in the market. Also I was quite taken by these comments.

Nobuyuki Tashiro, assistant trainer

“The pace was slow in the October Stakes but he settled well, then really moved to cover the last 3 furlongs in 33.1 seconds. I think he was stronger than his winning margin would indicate. After that race, we gave him a bit of time off at the farm before bringing him back and heading him for this race. We worked him with two other horses on Nov. 17 over the woodchip course for 6 furlongs and then this week over 5 furlongs. We pushed him pretty hard last week so went easy this week. There’s a bit of time between races but he can move well. Recently, he is able to concentrate in the race and he’s put on muscle on his hindquarters. He is 3-for-3 on a left-handed course and the spacious track suits him. The competition will suddenly become much stronger but I think he’ll be able to hold his own.”

Bee lucky.

Bit unlucky there, got switched a couple of times but the winner did it nicely

Sounds Of Earth ran a super race, going the long way round didn't help matters but Kitasan was a worthy winner. He had an easy lead again but always knuckles down when it matters, very consistent colt.