Racing Post Trophy

I have gone for Contrapposto 25/1 each way

Given he is likely to start a short price favourite I was thinking instead of backing Capri, purely on reputation, for the Derby (16/1 with B365) in advance of the RPT so I watched the Beresford yesterday and as well as making hard work of beating two stablemates I was really surprised how small Capri was. Might means he can handle Epsom but he really lacked scope to my eyes and I can't have him as a Derby winner.

On form and if Rivet is absent Capri would probably win this race, and at 5/4 only the AOB's diehards would back him but he is no certainty - a watching brief for me.

Capri drifting like a barge this morning, Yucatan coming in for major support. I took 4's with Hills, price long gone now.

Issue with the fav?

Capri has drifted from 'evens' to 2/1 whilst Yucatan is 6/4 from 5/1, the former looking increasingly like an absentee in the race.

AOB told the Racing Post: "Yucatan is progressing nicely. He has come forward with every run and I think he has progressed since the Beresford. I have been very happy with him. AOB added: "As I have said already, Yucatan is progressing nicely, while Capri could join him in it. The Anvil and Finn McCool are likely runners too. I could have four runners."

Does that mean Capri is not a definite runner? Sounds like it to me.

3,s noe capri anyone brave enough

playing games with the betting public...out of order

Or punters just following shadows - most ridiculous betting pattern not sure why ppl getting carried away with the top 2 - both likely to turn up and only one horse can win and let's not forget there are other horses in the race too....

Not rocket science. Clearly Coolmore have read my assessment of Capri and taken note accordingly.

Frankly I'm surprised Mr Magnier hasn't been in touch looking to secure my services.

no irish judge has a good word to say about capri, is he a mudlurk ? maybe why ryans switched, ground could be g/f

Fairly similar situation to the betting of the Dewhurst.

At the beginning Caravaggio was a short price 5/4 and Churchill at 6/1; money then came for Churchill and Caravaggio was soon reported to have suffered an injury. And the rest was history.

Judging from the relentless drift and no visible support for Capri at all and statement by his trainer there must be a serious doubt about his participation this saturday.

very dry forecast at doncaster, yutacan better suited here

maybe they will keep capri for them bad gound 10f group 1s thou have at st cloud,

No Capri, what a surprise....or not? My money is on The Anvil with Heffernan and not Moore rubbish!

The Anvil..tipped up by morning mole..Mr Mellish
makes a good case..will have a few quid ew on the day

this Yucatan looks very short now, got to be value backing Rivet and Sir Dancealot

Why is AOB running The Anvil so soon after his defeat at Newmarket when 'fav'? The Anvil finished infront of Yucatan the last time they met when both were behind Utah; Yucatan is 'evens' but only ever beaten a horse called 'Taj Mahal'.

Hard to  believe Yucatan is so short though Coolmore tend to get it right when they punt one like this so that would put me off The Anvil, though he is definitely a fair e/w bet as he was running on the unfavoured part of the track at New'Mkt and didn't handle the dip.

Not sure Rivet is crying out for the mile so it's a an e/w punt on Raheen House for me @ 18/1 with a stakes saver on The Anvil @ 14/1.

“There was not a lot between Yucatan and Capri in the Beresford,” O’Brien said. “Yucatan is progressing nicely, though. He took a big step forward from his debut to win his maiden at The Curragh at the end of August and then he took another big step forward to finish second in the Beresford. He has come forward with every run and I think he has progressed again since the Beresford.”

In my view nearly all Coolmore gambles have this common factor. They aren't based on some shrewd interpretation of the form book they're based on horses showing their well being at home and the belief that they've shown improved form on the gallops, information that the rest of us receive after the money is down. So from what O'Brien said Yucatan certainly fits the bill on that score. For me, however, he doesn't compare well with recent previous Coolmore strongly fancied winners of this race. St Nic, Camelot and Kingsbarns were very well thought of before their very first run, whereas confidence in Yucatan seems only recent. Personally I don't rate the Beresford form highly. Capri seems very well regarded and maybe he can do better but the bare form isn't up to much and I wonder if Coolmore are overrating Yucatan just because he managed to finish so close to their highly touted winner. Judging by their record in these circumstances I'd say it's odds on they're right that the horse has improved since his last run but I'm not convinced that would make him a good thing here. The trouble is I'm struggling to pick one to beat him as it looks an uninspiring field. No bet yet but I might lay Yucatan if he goes odds on.

What a poor bunch of 2yr olds this season,awful punting race..

I could not find a winner to save my life at present but I took a look at this race.
Nothing looks to be outstanding. Why is Rivet running? In the Dewhurst I was of the opinion that he did not stay. But Laughing Boy knows his horses well enough so perhaps there was a valid excuse for his Newmarket effort. Of the others I could fancy the Meehan runner if it was trained by someone else.

I think Rivet has the best form and is also the highest rated runner; his win over Thunder Snow is decent considering the latter was also 2nd to War Decree, a stable companion of Yucatan. But I do not know what to make of his run behind Churchill,..possibly running on the slower centre of the track.

Similarly, I cannot have confidence with Yucatan either despite what AOB has said and his very skinny price, why? For instance, why is AOB running two others especially The Anvil whose last outing was just two weeks ago if AOB prefers Yucatan to Capri, the horse with the better form? And The Anvil is no mug as he finished just behind Best Of Days but infront of Arcada.

very good assesment figgis

another example was kingsbarns who was heavily punted in the week 10/1 on the monday, after seemilingly beating selling platers in a muddy field at killarney in his maiden

Fashion Fever, I hadn't realised Kingsbarns was so big at the start of the week. Seems strange even with hindsight as he went off 4/11 on debut, albeit in a weak maiden. Was the situation similar to this year's where a higher profile inmate was withdrawn?

*even allowing for the benefit of hindsight

http://bloodstock.racingpost.com/news/bloodstock/doncaster-doncaster-kingsbarns-and-van-der-neer-added-to-racing-post-trophy/1138307/


UNBEATEN juveniles Kingsbarns and Van Der Neer were on Monday supplemented for the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster on Saturday.

The colts, trained by Aidan O'Brien and Richard Hannon respectively, have been added to the possible field for the Group 1, for which there were 15 entries on Monday.

Kingsbarns only made his debut earlier this month when winning a maiden at Navan by seven lengths, and is already as short as 14-1 for next year's Derby.

Van Der Neer impressed jockey Richard Hughes when winning a four-runner conditions race at Leicester last week, with Hughes stating after the race that the colt could be supplemented for Saturday's race.

As well as Kingsbarns, O'Brien could be mob-handed, with Beresford Stakes winner Battle Of Marengo, Eye Of The Storm, Fesitve Cheer, Kingston Jamaica and Magician all possibles.

Jim Bolger may run Trading Leather, with Steeler a possible for Mark Johnston.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/battle-of-marengo-kingsbarns-bookies-unsure-of-obrien-big-guns-in-racing-post-trophy/1138658/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews



BOOKMAKERS' view of Saturday's Group 1 Racing Post Trophy differed markedly on Monday with Beresford Stakes winner Battle Of Marengo as short as 7-4 with Boylsports, but a standout 3-1 with Coral - the same price his supplemented Ballydoyle stablemate Kingsbarns is with bet365.

Aidan O'Brien, who won the race with subsequent 2,000 Guineas and Derby winner Camelot last year, was responsible for six of the 15 contenders following Monday's confirmation stage, which included impressive Navan maiden winner Kingsbarns and the Richard Hannon-trained Van Der Neer - added to the field at a cost of £17,500 each.

Battle Of Marengo is favourite across the board, but Jim Bolger's Autumn Stakes winner Trading Leather is not far behind and is a top-price 9-2 with Coral.

Steeler, winner of the Royal Lodge, is also prominent in the betting at 5-1, but Kingsbarns is the horse seemingly dividing opinion.

**** had him at 8-1 in their initial market, but were forced into 6-1 then 5-1, while Paddy Power are 100-30 and bet365 3-1 - half the price of Coral.

All four juveniles feature high up in the Investec Derby betting with Trading Leather as low as 12-1.

The going at Doncaster was on Monday described as soft, although forecasts suggest it will be dry until Friday.

Mark Johnston, who trains Steeler, said: "I worry about what sort of state the ground is going to be in. It brings another variable into it. There is no reason to think he won't handle soft ground but he's never encountered it."

Thanks Jack. So it was similar in that Battle of Marengo the original fav was withdrawn. As Yucatan was allowed to go off at 10/1 and 4/1 in maidens then 10/1 in the Beresford it still seems unlikely that they thought of him as highly as Kingsbarns, seems they only really considered him potential Gp1 material after his Beresford second and the likelihood he's improved again since.

Off to my Autumn retreat for a while but enough time to back Yucatan win and Salouen each way.

Little bit of ew interest for me on Rivet.
Took the view that the Dewhurst was an unsatisfactory messy affair, esp for him.
Hopefully a more solid pace today & the step up to the mile will suit him, as in my view he takes time to wind up.
The fav looks a nice prospect for AOB & looks the one Rivet will have to beat.
Liked the look of Sir Dancealot a couple of times this season, but not sure about the mile for him, but he would be a big danger to all if he gets it well, travels well in his races & has shown a nice turn of foot, if this were over 7f I would be playing him ew.
Gd luck with your bets lads.

Best horse on form won - though it didn't look a very good race before or after. Will be surprised, and disappointed if there is a Derby winner among that lot.

Of course I deserted Rivet having tipped him for the Dewhurst and my long shot e/w bet got nailed on the line and came 4th.

tabor and magnier own the winner. these guys can do no wrong.