Dewhurst Stakes

Why would you be put off? He's never raced on GF so could well handle it fine, and the trainer thinks he will. His form took a big boost yesterday in the Lagadere.

Trainer Andrew Balding has revealed that his unbeaten Solario Stakes winner, South Seas, is on course for Saturday 8th October's Dubai Dewhurst Stakes, one of the two Group One highlights of the Dubai Future Champions Festival at Newmarket's Rowley Mile Racecourse.


Andrew Balding, trainer of South Seas
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This prestigious seven furlong contest has 50 of Europe's best juveniles still engaged following Tuesday's scratching stage while the Group One Dubai Fillies' Mile - which is run 24 hours earlier on Friday 7th October - has 30 entries remaining. Both races are worth £500,000, making them Europe's richest Group One two-year-old events.

South Seas has yet to be properly tested in three career starts, which have all taken place with plenty of give in the ground.

The son of Lope de Vega followed up a runaway Windsor maiden success with a smooth victory at Haydock Park before taking the step up to Group Three company in his stride when notching a two and a quarter length verdict in the Solario at Sandown.

"The Dubai Dewhurst Stakes is very much the target for South Seas, that was the plan for him when I last spoke to his owner, Sheikh Fahad Al Thani," Balding said.

"He has intentionally had a quietish time since the Solario and I am very happy with him.

"He is a high class horse with a good cruising speed and, although the Dewhurst will be a lot tougher, he has three runs under his belt now so is well equipped to try his hand against the very best opposition.

"He handles cut in the ground very well but I think he will handle fast ground too when the time comes. Although he might possibly get a mile and a quarter next year, he is a potential Guineas horse - the Dewhurst will tell us more.

"In my opinion the Dewhurst is the number one two-year-old race of the whole season so it is great to have a horse in my care considered good enough to take part in it."

Does anyone know if Seven Heavens is an intended runner?

Taken 8/1 on South Seas a couple of weeks ago and sticking with him unless he's not declared. Already jocked up though!

Sint - I nearly took the 8/1 on South Seas a couple of weeks back when Balding said the Dewhurst was the target so can't bring myself to back him at nearly half that on ground that is a slight unknown.

Race does not look like cutting up as much as I thought as it seems Blue Point is going to run along with Thunder Snow.

Given the massive shocks in the Middle Park and Cheveley Park it's perhaps not surprising a lot of owners/trainers want to allow there horse to run.

7 runners. Looks a good race. South Seas will run a big race.

I don't see why Churchill is so short, he may have smashed Mehmas last time out but Mehmas is much better over 6f and is not a top class 2yo anyway.

Rivet was quite workmanlike at Doncaster and Haggas seems luke-warm about his chances.

Blue Point is only running to see if he gets the trip well enough to see if he'll be given a Guineas campaign next season, or a sprinting one.

Thunder Snow looks the most plausible of the rest imo.

SEVEN HEAVENS for me, runs like he needs a stronger gallop, chock full of breeding for this sort of 2yo trip, work mentioned as exceptional by Robert Havlin prior to last run, bolted up twice, and 9/1 here.

South Seas and Rivet both much bigger on here now then they were at the 5 day stage.

Andrew Balding had a double today.

Suspect odds have drifted simply because AOB is winning every Group 1 going.

Good race. Churhill looks short at 1.75. Lay.

Just a watch.

Can't oppose the favourite

Had to have a bet on South Seas now he has drifted to a decent price. Probably be another O'Brien one-two.

Churchill will need to win this well to cement his position as the head of the 2000G market (6/4, if so) otherwise the pressure to 'prep' Caravggio for the 2000G will increase significantly for AOB. Churchill has certainly improved given the way he managed to 'go' with Mehmas till the 6f marker before pulling away to win handsomely; Mehmas rang extremely well when behind The Last Lion and Blue Point despite encountering trouble in running.

I do not think Blue Point will perform better over 7f than 6f, and beat Churchill and others in the process but glad to be proved wrong.

Looks like a golden highway along the stands rail - draw and position going to be critical.

When it comes to these end (ish) of season Big 2yo races I like to stick by the group form in the book horses over promising maidens.
Churchill will take all the beating but not a betting play for me, just a viewing brief with next yr in mind.
Gd luck with your plays lads.

9/1 was big enough for me to back South Seas too.

On shown form Churchill is clearly the most likely winner but not my kind of price in a race with a few potential improvers. If Churchill does win he'll probably go even shorter for the Guineas but I'd still want to oppose him, as like Air Force Blue he looks a horse that is doing all his improving as a 2yo and I can see him going the same way.

Little change of heart, small play on Rivet without the fav @ 4.7 on here.
Gd luck lads.

i've never thought churchill was that quick but his last run impressed me more though not sure the second got home that day...i quite like the gosden horse and blue point continues to progress so have had a bit on both and a saver on south seas who is progressing nicely although not sure how good the race was he won at sandown...1.72 seems horrible about churchill to me but he has annoyed me so far in regards getting a solid angle on him, today will tell us more but not for me

Ended up backing South Seas place only at 11/10(three places).

Has to be marked up on the bare form as he was running away from the favoured stands rail.

Bit of a messy affair with the average pace (I expected it to be stronger) but the class horse has won well in the end, as a bit like Gleneagles was as a 2yo he travels well & only just does what he needs to do to win. Will take a smart one to beat him in next yrs Gns.
Blue Point looks all over a 6f horse, the rest of them have improvement to do if going to win G1 next yr.

All looks very similar to last year when AFB was head and shoulders the best two year old colt and the rest looked a very average bunch.
At three AFB was useless and the rest were still pretty average.

AFB didn't train on and that is always a concern with speedy American bred two year olds. As Churchill is by super sire Galileo he should continue to improve next year and will take all the beating in a fast run Guineas.

Correct Jack.

Uncle, think you're being a bit simplistic there me old mucker.  War Front is the most over-rated, over-hyped, useless piece of Yankie junk that has ever walked into a breeding shed.  Galileo needs no introduction. Struggling to see any correlation at all between the two colts.

(Although I hope you're right as when my Guineas book cranks up in March Churchill is unlikely to be running for me)

I think there is a correlation in the way the two colts progressed throughout their 2yo year. Neither colt was outstanding in their first few runs. This is a totally different Churchill to the one that unimpressively beat a poor field in the Chesham. He has improved with every run but he'll need to improve again to win an average Guineas. When a 2yo makes improvement like Churchill has we always hear the tired old cliche that it is "sure to improve next year" but that's not always the case. I'd argue that when a horse makes large improvement throughout its 2yo year it's actually less likely to make much improvement from 2 to 3. Maybe this colt will, but as for taking 2/1 and under the odds compilers can stick it.

Not impressed with today - beat it's pacemaker with the rest in a heap. Looks a big colt too - quite likely not to improve over the winter. 6/4 in places an absurd price.

coolmore has invested in war front to mix up the breed.............he is a star sire of two year olds...........

the dam 2nd in the Queen Mary and did not race at 3. 2yo only IMO

A_T..........i take your point about this dewhurst..........beating lancaster bomber doesnt make him a super star........he has beaten nothing to date. i dont understand o'briens interview today.........he was saying hes special etc..........he should just say hes a decent g1 winner. the horse may never win another race.

He's a workmanlike type that does just enough like Gleneagles or Giant's Causeway, raise him in class and he'll keep finding extra to win. He looks a very genuine type who will keep on improving to me.

Wasn't suggesting he won't train on for a minute - just saying you can't take it for granted. He looks to be crying out for a mile already.

Assuming Carravagio goes nowhere near the Guienas then it's 25/1 bar one on here which tells you how shocking the standard is this year. Depressing really.

the Dewhurst is a poor trial for the Guineas -  3 winners in the last 20 years. Only the Rock has won both for A O'Brien.

dawn approach type

disappointing run from South Seas. A fair wedge lost

2/1 about the fav for next seasons Guineas is just ridiculous

Just to make this absolute clear to Figgis and others...there is no correlation whatsoever between Air Force Blue and Churchill, apart from the trainer.  So unless you're suggesting O'Brien is a trainer of 2yos and his progeny don't progress (ridiculous) or that sons of Galileo don't progress (ridiculous), we are left with sires as the differential.  Of course they're all individuals and anything could happen to Churchill but please don't compare sons of War Front with sons of Galileo - you're insulting the old boy, cheers.

please don't compare sons of War Front with sons of Galileo

Breeding was never mentioned by me.

You compared him to AFB, how they progressed in their first year and, by association, what might happen at 3. 

If you're not taking breeding into account when you make those assumptions I find that 'surprising' Figgis.

You compared him to AFB, how they progressed in their first year and, by association, what might happen at 3

I'd argue that when a horse makes large improvement throughout its 2yo year it's actually less likely to make much improvement from 2 to 3

Breeding has nothing to do with it and it would only be an assumption if I'd said it will happen, I said less likely.

Ok, so actually there's no correlation at all between the two colts barring a flimsy map of their 2yo career, and you're prepared to accept sons of Galileo have a seriously enhanced prospect of training on than sons of War Front?  Or do you not take breeding into account at all, Figs?

Ok, so actually there's no correlation at all between the two colts barring a flimsy map of their 2yo career

On my findings on the subject I'd say it was much more than flimsy. Not certain by any means but certainly makes Churchill a bigger price than 2/1.


I take breeding into account as no more than a ball park estimated guess, as I've never seen any work on the matter that proved more accurate than that. If anyone knows more then they're keeping it hid.

I'm more than happy to reveal my findings, Figs.  War Front is the bastad son of Woodman when it comes to over hyped, over paid, over rated stallions.  Barge pole, old boy.

* Or even educated guess. I don't doubt you're right about War Front Headmaster. I just reckon that a 2yo with Churchill's profile of making big improvement during his first season is less likely to make the necessary improvement from the end of his 2yo season to the spring, regardless of his breeding, particularly if coming from certain yards and O'Brien's is one of them. There are 2yos that seemed to make big progress but sometimes the races weren't run to suit and their true ability was hidden. I don't believe that's the case with Churchil, he's simply a much better horse than when winning the Chesham. If he was already up to Guineas winning class he wouldn't need to improve again but I think he's a bit below winning an average Guineas at the moment, despite it not looking a great renewal at this stage. This doesn't mean I'm saying he can't improve, just that I think it's odds against rather than the 'will improve' improve talk we hear that implies it is long odds on for him to do so.

Sometimes if a poster persists/continues to defend an indefensible point eg the earth is flat or in this instance tarring Galileo with the same brush as War Front then maybe it would be best to 'ignore' (post and poster) as this sort of 'correlation' will resurface again in the future.

It was not Churchill's fault that the opposition, apart from his stablemate/pacesetter, did not put up a more robust performance. But to compare Galileo to War Front eg on progeny, is downright questionable and spurious.

The price of Churchill for the 2000G has contracted further from 7/2 to 2/1 post his latest victory, and with a further one furlong in the 2000G I'd find it difficult for any horse on show presently and those that ran in the Dewhurst to overturn the Dewhurst results, all things being equal; the question of whether there is still value backing Churchill now is individual dependent, similar to his post National Stakes victory price of 6/1.

Not an ante post play now @ 2s, but would not have much concerns about going on as a 3yo being by Galileo myself.
So if your on at better prices already with Churchill then hope all goes well for you, no doubt atm he's the one to beat.
Wouldn't be giving up on a few behind yest, as it was a rather messy race from start to finish.
On his form, breeding & his action, I think South Seas will need some kind of ease in the ground.
Blue Point is a sprinter for me.
Rivet was in a poor position when the steady pace lifted & never really got a clean crack at the race.
Seven Heavens is still very immature for such a test at 2.

Millerracing67,

I'd tend to agree regards the value of Churchill now unless one is Churchill 'connected' and mega rich ie a return of 100% or more come race day, all things being equal, is not to be sneezed at. The added one furlong is a bonus unless extraordinary improvement from any of the Dewhurst runners and/or a late developer emerged from the 'woodwork' so to speak.

At the moment 'lucky' enough to be on Churchill and Caravaggio at prices ranging from 12/1 down to 7/2 with outlay recouped at 5/2 and below - silly and imprudent not to, I supposed. It will be a bonus if at least one of these two make the 2000G next May. Then again, look what happened to Idaho in the Leger race, a situation that had to be taken on the chin and accepted - part and partial of horse racing, even on the 'flat'.

But to compare Galileo to War Front eg on progeny, is downright questionable and spurious.

Which is probably why the two were never compared.

if Found runs and wins this year's 'Arc' I'd give up horse racing immediately, and that's a PROMISE!

And if a poster comes out with a statement like that but continues to post twaddle then it's safe to say he's the bull**** he always seemed

At no point has Figgis or anyone else suggested on breeding he won't train on.

He is far and away the likeliest winner so well done if you got on at 7/2 or 6/1 etc.

impossible 123, as someone who has Mehmas in their portfolio of bets on the race, you are in no position to speak with any authority on the subject.

Given he has given up betting on horse racing after Found won the Arc I guess his only option is to talk about the antepost bets he placed before then.

Howellsy,

With due respect I was extremely impressed with the constitution of Mehmas (giving 3lbs) when he beat Blue Point but overlooked his pony size to be a probable 2000G runner. Anyway, that is neither here nor there compare to the absurd 'correlation' from a poster (from the reply of The Headmaster to that poster) used to not to appreciate or downgrade the performance of Churchill, a progeny of Galileo, in the Dewhurst and his chances of maintaining/improving his performance next year citing Air Force Blue, a progeny of War Front, and not Galileo - a chalk and cheese, springs to mind.

unclepuncle,

I had a feeling 'Found' would win the 'Arc' after my vociferous dislike of her prior the race eg being a 'professional 2nd', and I even posted 'good luck to her backers' prior (somehow I knew that would happen, don't know why). And true enough, everything went well for her, and Moore!

I'd still not back her should she run in the Champion Stakes against Almanzor or QEII against Ribchester and/or Galileo Gold. This time, no doubt, her price will be much skinnier post her 'Arc' win.

Why would you even mention the possibility of Found running in the qe2? I like your enthusiasm for the game but you speak with unearned authority.

v Lippy lippy bagga mouth

Promises

v if Found runs and wins this year's 'Arc' I'd give up horse racing immediately, and that's a PROMISE!

I had a feeling 'Found' would win the 'Arc'

somehow I knew that would happen, don't know why

Glad he didn't retire as I find his posts quite funny, the ones I can understand that is. Would be interested to know where the £50 charity donation went though?

Howellsy,

My apology, that was a typo error - it should have read Minding and not Found. Nevertheless, I'd still not back the latter in either the Fillies and Mares Stakes (12f) or the Champion Stakes (10f).