Horse Antepost
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28 Sep 16
12:19
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07 Sep 15
The two principals are Ribchester (5/2) and Galileo Gold (9/2).
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Replies: 48
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Hugo Palmer said Galileo Gold is very well and was a bit too 'gassy' in the Marios, but a pacemaker will be deployed this time.
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Surely Belardo is being overlooked here? Won the Lockinge, 2nd in the Queen Anne to a superstar over course and distance.In all probability has been laid out for this (I know his stable had a blip but we would n't have seen him on fast ground in the summer anyway), likely to get ground he appreciates, will be fresher than most, second in this last year to a very good horse.
He's been really consistent since being stepped back up to a mile in this race last year - the only blot on his copybook was when he was 4th behind Toormore and Dutch Connection in the bet356 Mile and that was only because his jockey gave the front two far too much rope. What's not to like? |
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I agree, but Belardo needs bottomless ground though - will he get it?
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I beg to differ, he does n't need it bottomless, it was officially Good (Good to Soft in places) when he won the Lockinge - albeit the times were on the slow side. Last four years official going description for this race:
2015 Good to Soft 2014 Heavy (Soft in places) 2013 Soft 2012 Soft So on the balance of probabilities, the ground is more likely to be a concern for the others than for him. |
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ReaseHeath, aren't they racing on a different track at Ascot this time so the ground likely to be better than previous years? Racing on the jumps track so not been watered all summer? or is that just the round course?
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Actually answering my own question I guess it must just be the round course.
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good point, I do remember reading about that now you mention it, looking at the course configuration I think it is must only be the round course too.
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Belardo not sound after his last piece of work and retired so that's the end of that plan.
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I'd be interested in Mutakayyef at 10/1 if he runs.
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Unoriginal but I think Ribchester has improved past GG and everything else in the field. He was pretty unlucky in the Sussex Stakes and just looks like he is still going in the right direction. It would be some effort if GG bounced back after all the big efforts he's put in this season. You'd have to call him another Irin Horse if he did!
Minding looks amazing against her own sex but despite that has not posted anything spectacular time wise. |
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*iron
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Bit of juice in the ground could turn this into race of the meeting. On good ground i'd guess 1- Rchester 2 - GG 3 - Minding.
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JET SETTING is the value for me @14/1 with PP - think he will be 5/1 if the rain arrives....
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minding will murder this lot if she runs
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With the unscheduled retirement of The Gurkha and Hit It A Bomb is not good enough the only credible ammunition available to 'Coolmore' is Minding provided the ground does not come up good to firm or firm; her sex allowance will give her a distinct edge over the colts too, and this race is worth over £650k to the winner.
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Is Alice Springs not a credible option?
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unclepuncle,
I honestly do not think so as I firmly believe her win in the Matron Stakes in Ireland was made to look impressive because she came up the centre of the track whilst those next to the rails were bogged down by the ground bias; her win in the Sun Chariot beating Always Smile by 0.75l was far from impressive - the runner-up is only rated 110. |
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O'Brien has indicated that Alice Springs will miss Ascot and go straight to the Breeders Cup.
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If so, Minding is odds-on to be running here then with Found and possibly US Army Ranger heading to the Champion Stakes; Minding will most likely start 'fav', ground permitting.
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Just to give some perspective on the chances of Minding, one might like to consider that the last female to win the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes was Milligram in 1987, where she beat Miesque(comfortably by 2 1/2l) and Sonic Lady.
Milligram's Timeform rating of 130, placed her third behind Indian Skimmer (132) and Miesque (131)among the other three-year-old fillies that season and I personally would not put her in the same league as any of those fillies and feel she is up against it on Saturday. |
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thehorses she is running against on satuarday are not great........the gurkha was as good as them and he got beaten by hawkbill..........
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just going back to sint's point about time - her Guineas effort was more than half a second slower than Galileo Gold on ground a good bit quicker. Not an ideal comparison admittedly but she's not raced over a mile since May and when she did she was beaten by Jet Setting who herself has been well beaten in two 1 mile Group 1s since. In all probability she would n't be running in this if The Gurkha had n't been retired.
The opposition does n't look great to me either though - Galileo Gold looks regressive - if his increasingly high profile trainer can talk him in to second favourite, I'd be tempted to side with Ribchester. The other one that interests me at a silly price is Stormy Antarctic (who actually finished in front of Galileo Gold lto) but he surely needs some rain. Ditto Awtaad. |
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Can't see her being fav ahead of Ribchester personally..
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Ribchester beat Ervedya by 2.25l receiving 4lbs, and Galileo Gold lost the race after just two furlongs for being too gassy; Ervedya was beaten 1.75l trying to give Alice Springs 3lbs; Minding beat Alice Springs 4l on levels.
If Minding runs here and the 3lbs she is receiving from Ribchester there can only be one result, ie a win for Minding, all things being equal. |
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impossible123
12 Oct 16 13:55 If Minding runs here and the 3lbs she is receiving from Ribchester there can only be one result, ie a win for Minding, all things being equal. For clarity does that mean if Minding runs and doesn't win you PROMISE to give up betting on the horses, and, much more importantly, posting on here.  |
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they're calling the going Good (Good to Soft in places) with Going Stick readings of 8.9 on the straight course and 7.9 on the round course this morning.
For King George day, the stick readings were 8.0 on the round course and 9.2 Stands Side 8.9 Centre and 8.8 Far Side on the straight course so very similar - and yet that was Good to Firm on the straight course.I accept it will dry out much quicker in July than it does in October but the straight course will surely be on the fast side come Saturday unless they get some rain. |
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Reaselheath
You seem to have a better handle on the course and going. If you do not mind, may I ask what course/s and going will these races be run on at the present time eg Long Distance, Sprint, QE2, Fillies and Mares and Champion, please? |
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imp, there may be others around who know Ascot better than me (I've only been twice) but basically the Long Distance, Fillies and Mares and Champion will all be on the traditional round course with the Sprint and the QE2 on the straight course.
So, no different to any regular Ascot flat meeting (except that obviously sometimes they run mile races over the round course as well as the straight course). The plan to run the Champion Stakes on the inner course (which I believe is usually the hurdles course) has been aborted because the ground is too quick there. |
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ReaselHeath,
Many thanks. I just wanted clarification as there is quite a difference between good/good to soft (Round) and good/good to firm (Inner) as the impact on Limato and Seventh Heaven is massive. |
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Be surprised if Minding runs here and if she does she won't win. I can't remember any examples of a horse campaigned over middle distances being brought back to win a big mile race. It's not going to start now.
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Minding confirmed to be running in the race.
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Falbrav cut back to a mile and won nicely.
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With The Gurkha retired 'Coolmore' do not have a distinguished top miler (colt) hence Minding; the Pretty Poly and Nassau were races for the taking hence made sense for Minding to scoop those in the process, and Minding had only run in a 1m 4f race ie Epsom Oaks and none after.
Next year Minding would probably be stepped back up to 10f perhaps when the likes of Churchill, War Decree, etc, come on stream. |
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Her most impressive performance by far was the Guineas, so having had a decent break she should go very well. A no bet race for me.
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I was wrong about Minding not going off fav. Will back Ribchester on Saturday morning,.hopefully get 3/1
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she will brain this lot.......she was on wrong side of track at leops and was 3rd........found won arc.........3 y o colts this year are no good at any distance
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What about Almanzour?
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The best 3yos are normally the way to go here, esp with the 3yo colts on the race stats.
With the ground Gd/gs in places atm, it should be fine for the main 3yo players. Leaning towards Ribchester myself, course & ground not a prob, & he's a 3yo Colt with G1 winning form & looks to be improving all season. Just fav him over Minding & Galileo Gold. |
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just not sure the 3yr olds are as good as made out.
they may just be ahead of the second grade oldies though |