Irish Champion Stakes

Minding, despite the Matron Stakes is her number 1 target, has been backed for this race - she is as short as 7/2 with 'paddies' from 5/1.

disappointed postponed is not running........the derby form does not look very strong so i dont fancy harzand

Only a touted prep race for Harzand - he might still not run; if time was any guide Harzand won the Epsom Derby in a time nearly 2.6s faster than the Oaks won by Minding. I hope Harzand goes straight to the 'Arc', but the ground at the Curragh is more likely softish - his ideal ground.

Betting suggests Harzand is a runner - maybe Mr Weld does not want him to travel and perhaps have a hard 12f race in the Niel. I would not fancy Harzand for this - trip too short and the Arc is the #1 target.

Money is still coming in for Minding from 5/1 into 7/2 recently and now just 5/2 with some bookies whereas Harzand is easy to back at 5/2 from 6/4 despite ground is destined to be at least good or good to soft on impending weather forecast.

it looks like almanzour is coming here rather than the arc based on the betting , minding is no price , i just had a bit on highland reel at 10s

i like found also but she doesnt seem quite as good this year . i remember backing mandesha for the arc based on her 3yo campaign and that she would peak at the arc but they never got her back to her best and like usar whom seems to be regressing i just wonder whether found is to.

Assuming Minding runs and beats Harzand well then most likely she'll go for the 'Arc' otherwise Harzand will have her for breakfast over an extra 2f in the 'Arc'.

Found has been my nemesis - she'd never won for me; she beat Golden Horn in America because Golden Horn had one race too many - connections were seduced by the prize money - and it also bucketed down on raceday which was massively against Golden Horn.

I hope Harzand runs here (10f) especially if the ground suits but whether he wins or not is immaterial as the 'Arc' (12f) is his ultimate target.

Wouldn't be laying minding myself.

Almost one week of price contraction for Minding AOB has today revealed there is a good chance Minding will take on the colts and classy older horses in the Qipco Irish Champion Stakes on saturday week, the same day as the Matron Stakes where Minding has been an odds-on favourite since the prices were chalked up - a clear indication of the privileged few betting on inside info.

A head to head between Minding and Harzand looks increasingly likely with rain anticipated this weekend at Leopardstown and occasional rain next week too; Almanzor is no pushover either and neither is the prize money ie a whopping EUR500k more than the Matron Stakes.

Betfair Sportsbook are going 7/1 Almanzor.

That's huge for a horse which won both the French Guineas and the French Derby easily.

Either Sportsbook's odds compilers don't know what they're doing, or they've been out all night on a stag do.

i think that price is fair salinger especially as i see fascinating rock running here as well as harzand, looks a competitive edition of the race, i'm hoping fascinating rock runs as want to bet him here...we will see

Will Weld run Fascinating Rock against stablemate Harzand in the Irish Champion? Fascinating Rock is clear 'fav' for the Champion Stakes at Ascot next month.

“The plan, in an ideal world, is that both Fascinating Rock and Harzand will run in the Irish Champion Stakes. Everyone knows both of them appreciate a little give and if that’s the case at Leopardstown then both will run.

“If it isn’t then there are obvious alternatives with Harzand going to the Arc and Fascinating Rock heading for the Champion Stakes at Ascot which he won last year,” Weld said.

I'm not a fan of people sending out duff signals, but if midterm went for the niel, then maybe new bay could run in this race.

The present going is good/good to yielding with more rain forecast between now and right into the weekend at Leopardstown. I think there is no excuse for not running Harzand, if he is ok.

Will AOB declare Minding for this race or keep her for the Matron Stakes as originally intended? Tomorrow is D-day.

I think Minding would embrace a bit of give over 10f.

Looks like no New Bay or Moonlight Magic.

Minding running here.

Well I got that completely wrong as I was on Skyb site. Minding runs and New Bay and Moonlight Magic are declared after all. My mistake. I apologise.

Em... looks like Minding declared for the Matron as well by the prices on PP and WH?

I think there could be a sting in the tail; I think Minding is will run if Harzand does not otherwise why double confirmations at this late stage; this scenario should never be allowed as there is no reason for AOB to leave Minding in the Matron Stakes too. This is only a nuisance to backers of the race as it is still not 'no-runner-no-bet' concession until a new market is formed ie on 8th Sept.

The betting seems to suggest Minding is the most likely victor, but this is not reflected by her connections - she's confirmed for the Matron Stakes too on the same day. Why? One plausible inference is the Matron Stakes is the easier of the two races to win, and/or Minding is not fully wound up/ready after a break post the Nassau Stakes at the end of July.

Minding is 6 on Skyb and BF Spbk for the Matron

But only 2/1 - 5/2 with Sly, Billies and 365 for the matron Stakes; I cannot see a reason for connections to doubly engaged her at this late stage unless she's not in tip-top condition possibly meaning the Matron Stakes, an easier race to win.

Usual Coolmore strategy of flooding races with their entries. They know which one she's running in they just won't tell anyone.

But today was confirmation day for this race and the Matron Stakes. I cannot think of a logical reason why they have done that for both races unless she is not fully ready.

Why does this indicate she might not be ready? Am I missing something?

Th Matron Stakes is an easier assignment compare to this race taking on the colts for the 1st time in Harzand and Almanzor - two extremely good colts. Also, Minding is coming back from a break after the Nassau at the end of July especially so if another searching autumn campaign eg Arc, Qipco champions Stakes and America.

Still don't follow. So why is she entered in the ICS too?

interesting race and a cracking betting heat this...frankie dettori booked for fascinating rock i see, very competitive race but no world beaters so could be a cracking good race

3 plausible reasons why Minding is doubly entered eg:
1) hoping the ground is not Harzand friendly and Harzand drops out
2) 10f is not Harzand's optimum trip
3) 10f is a better prep for the 'Arc' plus 500keuro extra in prize money 

2 plausible reasons why she's still in the Matron Stakes eg:
1) Harzand is running in the ICS and on his favoured ground
2) Matron is easier to win with only Qemah to deal with
3) Minding is not fully fit after the break

Plausible reason Minding won't run in the Matron

She won't beat Qemah!

I123 - you need to calm down mate.

Did you really think O'Brien wouldn't declare Minding for both and keep his options open?

Lets say it absolutley hammers down and the going turns heavy - clearly the Matron becomes the more likely target. Alternatively it stays pretty dry and Harzand and Fascinating Rock both miss the Champion - then that race becomes more likey.

You don't have to bet ante-post - just wait for the declarations.

Welds horses have nowhere else to go. They'll be running.

unclepuncle

For me antepost represents value if getting it right and definitely the route to embark on if horses do not have multiple engagements - the sole purpose is to gain a price advantage.

I've always thought the Matron Stakes is Minding's number one target with this race a remote possibility given the probable presence of Harzand and/or Fascinating Rock, both excellent horses. But I've not anticipated connections of Minding yet to make a definitive decision regards race post 'confirmation stage' yesterday - this is a scenario I have never encountered before and thought permissible.

Minding does not want the ground fast so even heavy is ok for her. If so, she should be running against Harzand and company and now New Bay and not in the Matron Stakes unless connections are not confident of beating Harzand on heavy ground.

I've backed Minding at 6/1 and 10/1 for the Matron Stakes yesterday as I've a sneaking feeling she might duck the challenge here despite been heavily backed for this race recently. But my main bets are Harzand (here) and Qemah (Matron).

AOB has just confirmed Seamie Heffernan will be onboard Idaho in the Leger and Moore is staying in Ireland to ride Alice Springs in the Matron Stakes.This means Minding will be running here; Moore cannot ride in the Leger at Doncaster and make the Matron Stakes in Ireland too given the time constraint.

of course minding is running in this race that has been clear for weeks 123

Minding was always running here indeed as Harry says for 2 reasons, and much more the second reason

1) Winning the Matron would do a lot for Alice Springs but even more so Somehow. Minding's reputation is cemented already.

2)Coolmore might not have a top class middle distance 3yo ready or able for this. But from a bussiness perspective, they sure as fck don't want another top-class middle-distance 3yo taking this and becoming a top stallion they have to compete against. Harzand gets a 10f win here and it exponentially improves his stallion appeal as it means he ain't a plodder. That is why they are running Highland Reel, Found and Minding against him while not exposing USAR (their top stallion prospect along with The Gurkha) to another defeat against him when he isn't ready (if he will ever be!).

Minding was always going here, this sh!t is Coolmore101, Harzand won't make much of a stallion anyway due to his lack of precocity and Aga Khan bred ugliness, but they ain't going to help his chances any by giving Weld and the AK an easy here.

Found takes it if she is at her best, I'll take that chance at the price although it is a nagative neither Moore nor Seamie will ride.

Would seem as if fascinating rock is a n/r.

A pretty impressive turn out!!

With s field that size you'd imagine there will be a few hard luck stories.

Minding is very good but the bare form suggests that she has no easy task. Harzand and , possibly , Hawkbill will give her plenty to think about.

Found @ 13.5 for me.

New Bay as a 4yo is still an unknown quantity for me. Apparently Fabre had a virus in the yard earlier in the season and New Bay needed time. His latest run didn't reveal anything about him that we didn't know and he'd need to improve on his 3yo form but it's possible he could do. I won't be backing him to find out but he's the only bigger priced runner that wouldn't be a shock to me if he won. I don't really get the move for Found, she's already had 6 runs this year and in my view hasn't gone on as a 4yo, maybe tomorrow she'll finally come to hand but not for me. Highland Reel has the best form of the older runners but he's very beatable and has just had a couple of hard races.

Harzand isn't a special Derby winner but his Epsom win is still solid form and in my view just about the best middle distance form on offer on these wfa terms. If he runs to form he'll surely at least go close to winning. Of what I've seen of Almanzor so far I don't rate his form as high as Harzand. That leaves Minding who I reckon put up one of the fastest 1000 Guineas performances. I always thought she'd stay 12f at least well enough to beat her own sex and the only reason I didn't back her for the Oaks was I wasn't on at big prices and didn't want to take a short price with the possibility she'd regressed in view of her Irish 1000 run.

Arguably her wins since haven't been too impressive and it's possible she's not quite the filly she was in the spring but but none of those races were run fast enough for her to show what she can really do over the longer trips. I think if she can repeat her Guineas form she beats Harzand so at this price I'm willing to give her the benefit of any doubts about her current level and she's a bet.

Despite this race is over 10f there will be a searching pace given Weld employing a pacesetter in Ebediyin and a front runner in Success Day; Highland Reel and probably Harzand will be sitting right behind follow by Found, Minding and Hawkbill with the french challengers Almanzor and New Bay bringing up the rear, I think.

Almanzor has been impressive when twice beating Zarak however, I do not think that form is good enough to win here, and neither is New Bay. I think, the question would be, will Minding be able to go past Harzand should the latter take it up at the 2f pole? Minding is very good but Harzand has proven a horse with strong constitution and stays further than 10f - Harzand could come back after being headed.

Win or lose, I hope the best horse wins, and no hard-luck story.

4mm of rain during the night and the going is yielding/good to yielding with a bit more forecast after 4pm.

Minding and Harzand are coming back after a break but will the french horses, Highland Reel and Found have the edge on fitness over them? What a race in prospect!

This is a great race and despite the apparent competitive nature of it I believe that the 2 class horses at the top of the betting, Minding and Harzand have this between them. There is hardly anything in it and at the prices the conservative option is to dutch them both at 4.0 for an evens bet.However, I take Harzand to have the most upside and to take this on his way to becoming fav for the Arc and the most likely winner of this and the Arc so I will just save on Minding. Whether Minding will go on to the Arc may not be decided immediately after the race but they will be tempted. Even if Harzand gets beaten today, providing its not by much, he will improve for the run and the return to 12f and I will still have him as my Arc fav.

I think Sandown has pretty well summed this up. It's just a pity AOB trains so many of the top rated horses and therefore Ryan Moore selecting Minding sways things. Had the AOB horses been trained by different trainers would the betting be different? I suppose the longer priced horses today would be a bit shorter? Who knows?
Like most I think this is between the 3 year olds and Found. I can't have the French horse mainly because the Rouget stable has benefited so much this year from not being based in Paris where the virus has been awful.
With Found the question has to be are this years Derby horses better than last years? If they are then that should rule Found out. But if not then she is an Autumn horse and has the ground and trip as well.
Minding is harder. The 3 year fillies she has beaten have all been well beaten since so I only see the Moore selection putting her where she is. The ground must be against her with her only defeat on similar ground. And really speaking this had to be her target or the Matron Stakes. But you would think with Moore selecting her that would rule the others out.

Harzand on the other hand need not have run here. The Derby form, 3 year colts, looks good still and he will love the ground.

Harzand will be my bet but with no certainty so a couple of savers will be used, and because I think he will go very close today and because I think US Army Ranger will win, I think Moore has given up the Leger ride to ride him today, I have taken the 25s available on USAR for the Arc. If Harzand and he wins today that won't be the price tomorrow, I think.
Now watch an outsider buzz in.

The signals from Coolmore seem to suggest Minding is the best they've got but her last run was hardly inspiring. For me Harzand is the best in the race but this is only really a prep for the Arc - the others are all out to win this.

I'll take Highland Reel but would not surprise if Harzand is still good enough to win today.

I agree with what Howellsy said on the other thread regarding Harzand and the Arc, that this isn't a great target to pick for Harzand. Unless he improves or his main threats don't run up to form then he's going to have a pretty hard race here. The size of the field and the employment of a pacemaker should ensure that nothing gets an easy time in a slowly run race. Weld already stated that the Derby left its mark on the horse and whether he thinks he's left something to work on or not, if Harzand is fit enough to win this race it'll probably take something out of him.

My feeling is that Minding is opposable here. It's hard to know how much a horse has in hand when they are beating inferiors, but she hasn't really had a proper race since the start of June, the two romps since telling us nothing. This is not a confident view but think she's probably overrated and in such a deep race against some top class colts I would be surprised if she figured in the finish. If she wins I'll swallow my medicine and salute a top class horse. The ground looks to be ok for Harzand and having watched the videos again perhaps I've been a little harsh in dismissing him as a specialist 12f horse. Maybe he was a bit wide and not totally at ease downhill at Epsom; he looed to have a little more tactical speed at the Curragh but he was racing against stayers so visual evidence is hardly compelling. Pedigree is quite encouraging, he has a good draw and I expect we'll see a prominent, uncomplicated ride. It just isn't possible to know if he'll quite be as effective back at ten but he deserves the benefit of the doubt and the price is by no means unreasonable for such a tough, resolute finisher. Looking at the prices, I have to say Highland Reel seems to me the only really appealing alternative - a much improved horse since last year, and perhaps slightly better at 10 than twelve. The ground is a possible negative but he needs a test at this trip and it's hard to see him not being involved.

If you think Highland Reel is appealing you have to consider New Bay. His form is better and he has his beating. Will love the ground and ran close in the Arc off a good draw but possibly ground too fast. Found is closely matched and AOB has been saying all year that she is an autumn horse. Very compelling race for me. Difficult to have a firm opinion about anything.

Can`t not back New Bay each way if back to his best of last year.Have played accordingly.

Best Group 1 race of the year so far.

If back to 2015 New Bay has a good chance - but flopped in the Spring and won an egg and spoon race last time.

Allegiance with Harzand despite 10f as I was very impressed with his Epsom Derby win considering his foot was in an ice bucket for a few hours prior to that race.

Almanzor.
  GL ALL

No drama of the Leger kind please,...I cannot take another!

tricky race this and from a handicapping point of view there really isn't a lot between the runners on all known form...

i have minding clear but will just have to see her win as just can't get a true angle on her recent form...i like harzand but just don't rate the derby form but getting all the allowances he really should go close if the derby form is to be believed...i don't really know what new bay has achieved this year but his old form really should see him go close agaist these horses with a nice easy season and prep race to put him spot on...almanzor is a winner for me, i just like him and found is very much respected so a small dutch those 3 for me but i can't say i'm very confident betting wise as it really is to competitive to have confidence

Blinding late call Harry!

Fantastic horse.

Six wide and still wins.

Well done harry. Almanzor obviously better than my reading of his form. I was totally wrong about Found and was really impressed with her run, for me that was a career peak and I'll be backing her to turn the form around in the Arc.

Winner and 2nd ran good races, but had Fascinating Rock not been a non runner it would have been a different story. Most underrated group horse in training.

cheers chaps good race, i would love to know how tuned found was at york, the winner that day is certainly going the right way but difficult to gage with o'brien priming his horses for certain races

Well done Harry - great peformance from the horse and lovely confident ride on the winner too.
Found is so depedable but needs to be delivered really late these days imo if she is to win a big one - trouble with that in the Arc is traffic problems, like she had last year.
I know Smullen says he was easy on him in the last 1f but Harzand was being asked for everything from about 5f out and that was surely not an ideal prep for the Arc.

I think the English equivalent is tailor-made for Almanzor; if he turns up he'll be a short price favourite and takes a lot of beating with/out Minding in the race.

I do not think Almanzor will run in the 'Arc' either given the trainer and part-owner have La Cessonniere already earmarked for the race.

The two races are not necessarily mutually exclusive. Found ran in both last year, and Pilsudsk won the Champion (when it was run at Newmarket)
after finishing runner up in the Arc.

just to back her to place in every race punkle would of been the ticket throughout her career...we would all be rich by now

I do think connections of Almanzor will forego the 'Arc' and head straight to the Champion Stakes at Ascot as to take in two Group 1 races within two weeks is a race too far especially for a colt with ever increasing stud value. I also do not think he'll stay 12f on today's evidence.

surely they must go for the Arc.
Finishes strongly and looks to me
like he'll get 12f.
Top class this horse.

How fast was the ground? Harzand was in trouble a long way out. With US Army Ranger beaten by Weld's other horse the Derby form has had a good knock today but I can't believe Zhukova is as good as Harzand so maybe it was one of those days. Zhukova looked like he nicked it as well so maybe the ground was on the quick side. If that's right then the first three benefited from the ground while New Bay wants softer and so does Harzand. Highland Reel never advertised the Juddmonte form and he wouldn't have minded the trip and ground.
With the Arc being run at Chantilly which I believe, not certain, has a slight downhill final 4f then the ground will be even more important. If there is cut I think New Bay and Found have obvious chances. The thing is, although I backed Found last year, I just didn't think I had seen an older horse that I thought could win anything but a below par Arc. Maybe that is what it will be unless a 3 year old steps up to the plate.

Found is a seasoned campaigner, a good yardstick but no world beater; she did not win any Guineas nor the Oaks; she was receiving lumps of weight in the 'Arc' last year; she only beat Golden Horn in America after a massive deluge just prior the race and she also finished behind this horse in the Irish Champion.

Three horses did not run up to their true potential today eg Harzand (struck into), Highland Reel (one race too many too soon) and Minding (after a break). Almanzor has improved but running Found close and not pulling away says Almanzor did not have much left in his tank. But the Ascot Champion Stakes is just up his street, and he'll have a'fav' chance even with Minding in the race.

looked to have something left
in the tank to me.

I thought Almanzor would pull away from Found given his late strong run. My impression was he did not have a lot left in the tank however, he does possess a good turn of foot. As such, I'd not be surprised if connections steers clear f the 'Arc' but focus on the Ascot Champion Stakes instead.

Is there any possibility these two were racing on a faster part of the track? They finished like they had just jumped into the race and both looked full of running. Have to agree with Penzance the winner looked like he was just going away at the line after a short sharp tussle with Found.

I beg to differ, two bookies have him at 3/1 for the English equivalent.

Bookies can make up their own ante post prices to suit themselves. Almanzor on here is only available for bits and pieces slighty above 5/1, he's 7/1 for the Champion Stakes so anyone confident that's his target should take that as he's highly unlikely to start bigger.

Helped myself to a few 12/1 with Sporting*** and some here at 7/1 and 8/1, would like more if available.