Gimcrack Stakes (20th Aug)

Each way on the The Last Lion.

I'm hopeful about Blue Point unless the softening ground is an inconvenience; I cannot have Intelligence Cross who likes good/firm ground. The unknown is Mubtasim but I'm not a fan of Mokarris.

To me the market has written off both Ardad and Global Applause too prematurely - can't have Ardad's performance at Newmarket as being solely down to the ground, he was beaten too far. Gosden has had a couple of revitalised winners over the last 2 weekends in Royal Artillery and Richard Pankhurst and I doubt Ardad would be running unless they were confident he can be competitive.

It is competitive though so just a small each way bet on Ardad - Global Applause appeals because of his early season form and the fact the stable is back in form - having said that he could be exposed so I'll resist backing him and kick myself if he wins.

I'm surprised Gosden is running Ardad at 6f even though he'd stated post Ardad's defeat at Ascot 5f was his optimum trip; I cannot have Global Applause either as he's definitely much more effective over 5f judging from his defeat of Mehmas at Sandown.

Money has come for Blue Point, into 13/8 now.

well done, impossible - Blue Point looked the real deal there - Global Applause ran quite well, Ardad not so much.

ReaseHeath

Thanks. But I don't rate this year's Gimcrack as top notch/proper Gp2. The likes of Caravaggio and Mehmas are a different kettle of fish should they meet (again), and 10/1 for the 2000G is about right even if Caravaggio is absent.

I doubt Caravaggio will stay a mile personally. Sire has had 1 winner at beyond 7f on turf in UK - plenty of runners too (70 plus I think).

As you hint the market will revolve around whether they try and target the 2000 guineas with him - there are some signs that they might not but I've no real view on next year's Guineas at this point beyond that.

The winner and 2nd of the Coventry Stakes ie Caravaggio and Mehmas are doubtful for the 2000G given doubts about their stamina so is Blue Point post today's emphatic Gimcrack Stakes victory, according to his trainer thus leaving Churchill, a 2nd rate 2yr old colt heading the 2000G market - how depressing!

I hope all of the above mentioned colts attempt 7f in the near future and at least two go for the 2000G otherwise next year's 3yr old miler could be another average bunch.