Horse Antepost
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Lumiere was my ante post Guineas bet, I thought she would be the better miler and Minding would be better over middle distances but she just didn't perform on the day. Losses were recovered last time but I'm aiming to be in profit on her today. I have her highest rated here, 2lbs ahead of Qemah and 4lbs ahead of Alice Springs. Admittedly that isn't a huge amount of difference but I think Qemah and Alice Springs may have already hit their peak last time whereas Lumiere should still have a big effort in her. Whether that's true or not, 9/2 is very generous and I'm backing her.
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Lumiere was also my antepost 1000G bet... unfortunately I didn't stick with her last time
 I'm finding it hard to weigh up her chances today to be honest, she was excellent last time but this is a big step up in class (granted she is already a G1 winner  )Personally I see the value in the race somewhere between Esoterique and Amazing Maria. You have to look for excuses for recent bad run(s) but both of these have proved multiple times that they are G1 milers. At 9/1 and over 20/1 respectively I think they warrant a few sheckles e/w. Looks a cracking race in prospect, I am keen to take on Qemah and Alice Springs though, they're both well short enough for such a good race. |
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I agree if Lumiere is back to her 'best' juvenile form otherwise this race is Qemah's for the taking. I do not rate the victory of Alice Springs in the Falmouth because Usherette, the 'fav', did not run to form and the rest were a mediocre lot. I'm slightly surprised connections of Alice Springs is not running Ballydoyle instead given the anticipated good ground.
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I can't see Lumiere winning this. Qemah and Esoterique for me.
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Figgis, I know you don't believe in 'conditioning' but surely this is a massive step up from beating some very disappointing horses last time. It's a long time since her group 1 form. I did give her the sort of speed figure last time out that would enable her to win this, but I fear she has little chance of repeating it with a stronger early pace today, and I think she's much too short in the betting. I'm still not sure she stays a mile in group 1 company. Qemah has to prove she's as effective back over a straight mile, and Esoterique can't be trusted at present. I'm not sure Alice Springs has improved much in terms of speed figures, but if she is ridden prominently again today, and if the ground is no worse than good, I would expect her to give her true running and go very close. I'm not sure I'll have a bet in the race as I'd love to see Lumiere win and there are too many unknowns, but I'd be quite happy to back AS at around 3-1.
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Howellsy, I too gave her a good figure, a career best improvement by 3lbs, wfa ignored of course. I don't understand why you think she can't repeat the performance off a stronger early pace (not that we'll necessarily get one anyway) and maybe not even stay? She's already proved she's up to this class over 1m, her latest time tells us this, the only way she would fail to see out the trip here would be if Fanning has her doing too much too early, but surely that must be doubtful.
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Incidentally, Howellsy, the Newmarket mile is considerably stiffer than the Deauville mile.
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Volta eachway for me with a saver on Alice Spring.
Qemah top class last time but all her wins have had soft in the going description. |
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Backed both Alice Springs and Qemah win.
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Figgis, Tupi won the Newmarket race last year and his best run since was over 6f. It's only a stiff mile if you go a strong pace, and even then it depends on the class of race. The Guineas mile is not stiff in theory but the Guineas is rarely won by a non stayer. I hope I'm wrong, and if Lumiere could be held up it would increase her chances. My fear is she will be prominent and struggling before the furlong pole. I just wish I had a strong fancy.
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would have preferred a bigger price on volta especially as her form is somewhat hidden from the main formlines.
if she hadnt run v the very god french fillie last time she would have been quite a big price and backable based on the french horse who hacked up at GG midweek....just a small bet for me. |
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It's only a stiff mile if you go a strong pace, and even then it depends on the class of race
Howellsy, a fast time performance, such as the one recently put up by Lumiere, can only be achieved in a fast run race. Whether the pace is stronger earlier or later is immaterial, as long as it's not too slow or too fast early. The 'class' of the race is a measure of the pace of the horses involved. |
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I disagree Figgis. A stronger early pace can destroy the fast time capability of a horse like LUmiere. I'm not sure it will, but that's my fear.
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Again, loads of dosh for the Coolmore runner but I think they will be off target this time.
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Howellsy, I have bow to your reasoning after that showing
 . Personally I didn't think they were going a hectic pace early on, Lumiere was keen to go faster, which wasn't encouraging. After that I don't think I'd trust her to run to form regularly even dropped back in trip. Alice Springs ran poorly too but that was maybe due to the hard race last time. Well done Qemah backers, nice sp too. |
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Classy from Qemah..she's really progressing
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Very strange race. Alice Springs ran no sort of race. I'd like to see Lumiere come out again next week for the M de Gheest.
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Howellsy, I just couldn't back her again after that. If they'd gone really fast early I could excuse such a bad run, or if she'd just faded late on through stamina limitations, as most sprinters do when stretched, but she went out like a light. If I look back at my bets on Johnston runners over the years I've had a few successes but got far more wrong. What's noticeable also is that despite employing the same methods as I do with runners from other yards ,lots of my failures from other yards could be explained by me realising I'd overrated my selection by a few pounds or underrated the winners, whereas many of the Johnston bets didn't just get beat they got totally stuffed leaving me scratching my head. Other punters might have his runners sussed but not me. That said, I knew that and still thought she was a good price.
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* should have said have to bow
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Yes, having watched the race again it's hard to fathom her run. I was just wondering whether a faster pace might prevent her from pulling. It wasn't a race I fancied much of a bet in and it continued a below par season for me in the top races. I've been finding it difficult to form confident opinions in most group 1s this season.
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Lumiere has run 3 races this year now, btn 32L, won 6L, btn 26L. This is not a form issue, there is a physical issue behind such inconsistency. It is obviously not visible to the naked eye, so one can only assume that whatever it is , is well hidden. No doubt Johnston will get to the bottom of it but his horses generally do seem to run in and out of form rather alarmingly.
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Yes could well turn out to be the case. I'm now giving up on her which will probably mean she'll bolt in by 6 lengths again next time
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Beaten 32 and 26 in Group 1s. Wins a weak Listed race by 6. Probably not the 3yo they thought she would be.
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Well, you could say she's not as good as the trainer and people like me think, but it would be stretching it to breaking point to say that was anything like her true running on Sunday.
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nothing on her run sunday but lumiere's best performances have been when getting loose on the easy lead against minor horses, something she has beaten in all the races she has won...
she reminds of a typical bounce horse in regards trying to back up a big effort, she clearly takes a lot out of herself when racing and can't seem to back up when asked to go again...anyway her form has taken knock after knock and unless she is fresh and allowed it easy on the unpestered lead, it isn't easy for her to not race choke out, something she can get away with against slower horses thus helping her to settle but not against proper grade 1 horses who aren't slow |
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Have a look at the sectionals for the Cheveley Park, harry, that was not an easy lead.
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Also one of the Johnstons, can't recall if it was the dad or son, said Lumiere very quickly put the weight back on after her Newmarket win, it hardly took anything out of her, so I doubt if that's the reason.
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Mention of the Cheveley Park sectionals reminds me of what Ryan Moore said after the Middle Park that day- that he had "never been down into the dip that fast" in his life. He'd done so half an hour earlier....
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I don't believe that Luminiere running so badly was anything to do with it being a G1, although I can see why you may draw that conclusion. He Newmarket win over 8f was run at a reasonable pace and time and although it wouldn't imo have been good enough to win at Deauville, she might have been expected to improve in which case she should have been close enough to have at least been placed.
She ran well enough, albeit a little free, until the 3f marker where she started to come under pressure but she held on to 2nd place until the 2f pole where she went out like a light, just as she did in the 1000Gns. Given that she ran well enough over 8f, I can't see that we can say that the trip beat her, nor did she pull so hard that that would be the explanation, although it may have contributed. Usually when horses drop away quickly like that it is due to either a physical injury (I didn't see the jockey looking down at her action) or its a breathing or a bleeding issue. She may have swallowed her tongue, she may have made a noise to indicate breathing problems, she may have bled in her lungs. I'm sure that eventually we will find out. If no cause can be identified, then we may have seen the last of her which would be a shame but having won a G1 she would fetch a price for the paddocks.If she does run again, I wouldn't back her unless she was on offer at a price worth taking a chance. |
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It's similar with Air Force Blue, although unlike Lumiere I don't think AFB has shown anything like a return to his best this year. At the start of the season I thought he was a bit overrated and underpriced, I also said as he'd done so much improving over the course of his 2yo career that I had doubts he would improve from 2 to 3. The latter has certainly been borne out so far but it would be foolish to say the horse simply hasn't trained on or the others have improved past him, he's actually gone backwards. Therefore I have to think he has some undetected physical problem.
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Figgis
02 Aug 16 21:15 Joined: 28 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 6,076 | Blogger: Figgis's blog Have a look at the sectionals for the Cheveley Park, harry, that was not an easy lead. yes i have figgis and yes it was an easy uncontested lead of which she went a decent pace before tiring in the last 2 furlongs also newmarket that day was very speed favoring with 7 winners being very prominent or even racing right on the lead but was a decent time non the less Sandown 03 Aug 16 11:03 Joined: 06 Dec 01 | Topic/replies: 2,721 | Blogger: Sandown's blog I don't believe that Luminiere running so badly was anything to do with it being a G1, although I can see why you may draw that conclusion i don't think that is exactly what i said sandown... i was making more of a point on her not being able to do her stuff against such horses and not being able to back up big efforts against mediocre opposition at the end of the day she seems to be able to put a big effort in, then not back up... like you say she could be a bleeder or have something physical wrong always a sign of a bounce horse, whether mark johnson, his son, his wife, his younger son, his mother in law don't think so, its a fact something is wrong with her and it hurts her to put in such a big effort, then back it up... really she just isn't that good and the race on sunday showed she needed to improve further on what she had already achieved in order for her to get in the money, never mind win but she couldn't back up her newmarket run i do get sick of coming on here and people picking out what suits there argument sandown and belittling it like you have in this instance to suit your's, you have taken what i said out of context of the actual full post i posted... i am well aware she didn't run her race whether you disagree with my above post is neither here or there but i find these sort of one-upmanship post as if you know better quite sickening and is the reason i post less and less |
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Another thing about the Rothschild on Sunday is in comparison to the other times on the straight it was a pretty slow final time for a Gp1, they went slow early, so it wasn't a case of her not being able to withstand a strong early pace in this instance.
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Harry C
Whoa there Harry. You've taken criticism out of what I wrote when none was intended. Like you, I'm merely seeking an explanation for the poor run. |
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fair enough sandown, i except your apology
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