Irish Oaks (14th July)

Even Song will probably win but is extremely short. On the other hand Pretty Perfect is 16/1 for this race; she also had good form last season and was only 10/1 in the Irish 1000G; she also won well over 12f last time out, and at 16/1 a good e/w, in my opinion.

You're right she is no Minding and I'm a bit underwhelmed by her form but credible opposition is thin on the ground. I'm not saying she could've beaten the winner in the Pretty Polly but it's fair to say she wasn't seen to best effect and could've done better. What was most interesting to me about her last start was the insider money that came for her. This wasn't due to some shrewd form analysis, as is usually the case with the yard it was obviously because she'd showed significant improvement in training and therefore a big run was expected.

It was a slowly run event and she won convincingly. Judging by the money that came I'd have to assume she could run a lot faster if required and more often than not a slowly run race doesn't take too much out of a horse so I'd expect her to be in the same form next time. Normally I'd want to take one on at this price with form that isn't exceptional, but in view of the stable confidence last time and what looks pretty weak opposition here I'll have to sit it out. I can' remember if any of O'Brien's lesser strings have ever beaten the first string in this race but I do remember one at a big price pushing Moonstone extremely close a few years ago, so good luck with Pretty Perfect.

No value backing Even Song now at 8/11 despite opposition is thin on the ground. However, she could be had at 10/1 immediately post winning the Ribblesdale (16th June) even though AOB had stated she'd be aimed at this race - I was lucky I still managed to get some 5/1 on 18th June when Minding drifted to 6/4 with some bookies to share favouritism with Even Song. And this was despite Gosden being non committal about the running plan for So Mi Dar when interviewed on 9th June.

Even Song looked like a pig in muck on the soft going at Ascot.Architecture was keen there and weakened,needs a faster run race and not soft going.She went ok at Epsom on the downhill then got collared close home.I think good going would bring them closer together saturday.Need a dry day.Somehow stayed on very strongly at Chester from behind.AOB decided Somehow should lead at Epsom,always looked to be going a stride too fast and weakened.Pretty Perfect could the the hare this time.She has a lighter longer action than Even Song so may prefer faster ground.I hope she doesn't go off too quickly and weaken.
I'd love to see a dry day and fast going.

Having a little each way on Harlequeen.

Architecture 7/1 e/w for me.Little e/w on Somehow 25s.

Even if Even Song's Ascot form wasn't brilliant that was still a shocker. The winner did it decisively enough but in a well run race the form doesn't look very impressive. Well done Felt on the third.

She's not run to form there but no idea why..

Even Song has a classic soft going action,she loves soft going.I laid her at 1.26 to place today as a decent value bet but didn't expect such a poor run on good to yielding.I will just pidgeon hole her as a soft going specialist.

If the times are any guide then the ground on the round course at the Curragh was very similar to the ground for the Ribblesdale. It couldn't have been any softer than good to soft that day at Ascot looking at the round course times.

Appalling aftertiming Knavesmire. Not clever at all.

Sintonian
I said before the race Even Song was like "a pig in muck" at Ascot.Scroll back!Does that not elude to her being a soft ground lover?I'm trying to bring something to the table here.
There's some cynical bitter people on here!

Figgis
Youre having a laugh!Four times on the day were 1.4 secs slow, 1.6 secs slow, 0.2 secs fast, 0.3 secs fast.Similar to Ascot?
Did you not see the race? how quick they went then slowed down later on?

I said the round course, which had much slower times and even the official description was slower. Even Song was obviously struggling before the straight. I don't see the connection between how fast they went early and the state of the ground?

Also on the day of the Ribblesdale the straight course was much faster than the good to soft of the round course, it didn't seem to bother her.

In nutshell Even Song did not run to anything near her ability, and one of the reasons given by AOB was she was trained 'hard' for the Ribblesdale and probably feeling the effects yesterday, in a way fairly similar to the reason given for the below par performance of Architecture there post the Epsom Oaks. Nonetheless, I believe Seven Heaven is a better filly of the two with Minding several notches superior.

You didn't have the bottle to state your bets beforehand and then claim you place laid her at 1.2, rotten.

Figgishummmm
The round course?Oh you mean the Ladies Race and the Maiden race times as a good guide?hummm.
When horses run the first few furlongs too fast..they tend to weaken badly...get slow times.

Sintonian
Yet again...scroll back.I did have the bottle,my bets were Architecture e/w with a small e/w on Somehow.
I mentioned laying Even Song in passing and with the caveat that I was surprised she ran so badly.
I come on here to read what people have to say,see what they have to bring to the table.

All you brought to the table here,apart from bitter cynicism was "no idea" .

When horses run the first few furlongs too fast..they tend to weaken badly...get slow times

Maybe the ones who set the pace do, the ones who come from the back in such races, as Seventh Heaven did certainly do not, in fact that's exactly how many fast times are achieved.

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/sectionals/sectional-debrief-irish-oaks-day-2016-1772016

I'm not sure where you get the idea it was some kind of pace collapse? I doubt most people saw it that way and Timeform certainly don't.

Figgis
Not looked at the link.I will hold my hands up though and say I was over reacting to being condradicted.Youre right,the times were not a lot quicker than Ascot but the Ascot going did have more juice.Even Song won a slow run affair at Ascot on soft but not very slow going.
The Curragh was a different ball game,a much quicker run race on quicker(ok not much quicker but quicker) ground.Even Song looked like a pig in muck at Ascot but so different at The Curragh.
Even Song didn't stride out very well,never went a tap,always looked to be playing catch up.I was surprised she ran so poorly,I expected her to be in the shake up with maybe Architecture and one other.Unless she had an undiagnosed problem then I will class her as a "soft going filly".Will be interesting to see her run on top of the ground!