Grand Prix De Paris - priced up

Red Verdon added to Paris field
Last Updated: July 11 2016, 13:57 BST
Red Verdon has been showing Ed Dunlop "all the right signs" - which is why the colt has been supplemented for his third Group One in three different countries.

After being supplemented for the Investec Derby at Epsom, where he finished a creditable sixth of 16, he was then added to the Irish Derby where he managed to get get a lot closer to Harzand in fourth place.

Now he will run in the Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris at Saint-Cloud on Thursday after owner Ronnie Arculli once more put his hand in his pocket.

"We have supplemented Red Verdon this morning, he came out of his run at the Curragh extremely well and has been showing us all the right signs at home," the Newmarket handler told www.edunlop.com.

"It is a competitive field, as you would imagine, and he could encounter the fastest ground he has run on this year.

"But the ground has been well watered and the forecast is for temperatures to cool as the week progresses, we hope he will run a big race and he is joint-top-rated."

Red Verdon is one of nine possibles in the Group One, in which Aidan O'Brien has two potential contenders in Beacon Rock and Shogun.

Andre Fabre has three of the nine in Epsom eighth Cloth Of Stars, French Derby fourth Talismanic and the twice-raced Maniaco.

"All three are likely to run," said Fabre.

"Cloth Of Stars has been fine since Epsom.

"Talismanic would enjoy a few showers that are forecast - after such a wet summer, we now want rain.

"Maniaco missed his prep run for this but he is a very good horse in the making.

"I'm looking forward to running him."

Man-of-the-moment Jean-Claude Rouget could field Mekhtaal, who was well fancied for the French Derby but could finish only eighth.

The Pascal Bary-trained Spring Master and Pia Brandt's Mont Ormel complete the list, with Wings Of Desire, from John Gosden's yard, a notable absentee

* Red Verdon

On form Red Verdon looks to have a decent chance however, I've always regarded him as a top handicapper only and not a Gp 1/2 horse. For instance, his finishing position in the English Derby was made to look better because more than 1/2 the field either did not act at Epsom and/or stay the trip eg Across The Stars, Massaat, Cloth Of Stars, etc; this run could also come too soon post the Irish Derby (25th Jun), and the proximity of the 3rd (Stellar Mass) could indicate a slower run race than the English Derby as reason for his closer proximity to Harzand or Idaho, in my opinion.

Nonetheless, the absentee is more of an interest to me eg Wings Of Desire (Epsom Derby), who could be kept back for the Great Voltigeur at York on 17th Aug prior to a tilt at the St Leger, I believe; the participation of Shogun (English/Irish Derby) and Beacon Rock (Ascot) and not Idaho could also indicate Idaho might be heading for the same races as Wings Of Desire ie the Great Voltigeur and the St Leger, all thing s being equal.

If Mekhtaal runs and at about 3/1 I'd be backing it over Cloth Of Stars or Red Verdon.

I think that's harsh impossible. I think he's proven he's a worthy Group 1 contender now. Unlucky in our Derby and a nose away from placing in the Irish version. Harsh to say he hasn't been worthy of his place in both races imo.

Maniaco is never going to be a 14/1 shot....have what you like on.

It's not easy to tell as the Master doesn't utter a word to the French press but there is a strong suspicion Maniaco is his best 3yo.  It won't show on his record but he was an on-the-day non-runner from the Prix Du Lys and was expected to follow the favoured Fabre route of Lys-Grand Prix-Arc.  His placing of the horse speaks volumes, as does the fact that missing the Lys hasn't derailed his programme despite easier Arc stepping stones coming up at Maisons Laffitte, Deauville and Vichy.

As a few have pointed out already, this isn't vintage stuff and the race is ripe for a horse to take a massive step forward and announce himself as proper Group 1 material.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if les turfistes have Maniaco the shortest price of the three Fabres on Thursday and the 12/14/16 is dreamland in my humble.

Pricing ricks are common on French racing, but openly flagging them here helps only the lazy and odds compilers (not mutually exclusive). Tough enough to get bets on French racing, let alone French antepost markets, without these types of posts. Thoughts Headmaster? Could advice be withheld until day-of-the-race markets when the value has been squeezed out by those who have put the work in?

First forecast in from France and it doesn't look like I'm right anyway chaps Paris Turf has him at 9/1

I like his breeding and the fact Fabre trained the Dam to win the Vermeille but think after just 2 runs he's going to be under prepared for a Group 1. I know Godolphin own COS but they have decided to give Ultra an easier come back.

i can't help but feel maniaco is a bet purely on breeding rather than a horse with a chance even in a weak group 1 like this is and he is a 20 poke in my book judging on how he has been campaigned thus far, the master trainer starting him out over staying trips in weak affairs shows where he sees him, he looks slow as a boat to me and has been shown as such by his trainer judging by his campaign, i don't want to belittle a bet when value is involved but you are not getting the right price here for me

this is a very tricky affair betting wise and finding an edge in a tight market is not easy in anybodies book but for me i have mekhtaal far shorter than the 3/1 we are getting in this race and he is taken to beat these horses with the french derby not suiting in regards pace and how he was ridden, i am also happy to take the 5/1 red verdon as a saver with a slight cherry on top, cloth of stars would be a danger to all and if he drifts to an extreme price he also has to be considered, if the ground were better he would surely have every chance, however i like mekhtaal and at 3/1 about a 7/4 chance he rates some value, pillar to post

If Boris could be resurrected so soon post his universally 'accepted' Brexit demise then anything is a possibility here hence I'd go with the winner of the 'garbage' race,...arise Mekhtaal!

For me the best piece of form is Beacon Rock's Autumn Stakes run, certainly the fastest piece of form anyway. On that run I'd have said he was almost certain to get 12f as a 3yo, even though it might've looked as though he barely got the trip last time. I was tempted to have a few quid on but the trouble is he's pretty one paced so needs a fast run race and he may not get that here. I agree with the Headmaster about the usual standard of the Hocquart and I don't think Mekhtaal achieved a great deal that day. I'm hoping it's not the case but it looks like we may get a typical French slow early pace here, where the ability to quicken the best and/or positioning in the race determines the outcome. If that happens then it would look likely to favour Mekhtaal and Cloth of Stars, maybe Maniaco too who is still very much an unknown quantity.

Would need to see it again but it looked a strangely run race, appeared to go very slow early before Moore stepped up the pace considerably some way from home. Whatever the pace of the race I doubt it contained any very good horses.

Harry
Didn't play myself and didn't have a strong opinion but I do know Mekhtaal is NOT a soft ground horse. He has a low daisy cutting action, as his trainer has said. He wants fast ground. He has a top class turn of foot so don't give up on him.

sandown i'll be honest i only played him knowing it was at least good ground, as agree he needs better ground, i just thought he should of taken him to lead and he even ran up the back of the leader in the race, it was a strange race run at a stop start gallop, i'll say he flattened out near the line so not sure he would of won anyway, just disappointed he didn't take him to the front, it was a perfect opportunity wasted and he will never get a better chance in which to pick up a weak group 1 and this race was certainly that

a terrible group 1 guys. the french derby and this race have really become poor races........some very bad winners recently