Horse Antepost
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08 Jul 16
15:04
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07 Sep 15
Hawkbill and Idaho (present 'fav' for the Leger) is 5/1 and 8/1 respectively with Betw**.
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Replies: 27
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At 8/1 for this race and only 6/1 for The Leger Idaho must be value unless one is certain he's not running here or The Leger I'd have thought.
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Not sure Idaho looks like a Leger horse to me? But would take all the beating in this race if that's the plan?
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I cannot see USAR running here or the Leger as the Leger is too close to the 'Arc'; I believe USAR will be aimed at the 'Arc' because of his superior breeding and will only run against his elders in the 'Arc' and not before ie no King George VII & QE II either. However, I'm more than hopeful Idaho will run here and then the Leger as Idaho has the pace and stamina but not the acceleration necessary like Harzand for a top middle distance horse. Also, Idaho is pounds superior than any 3 yr old colt except Harzand and USAR, hence Idaho at 8/1 for this race is very tasty indeed.
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I do not know what to make of Red Verdon despite running his usual 'promising' races since the Epsom Derby - he always seems to get himself detached from the field on and run on too late to win. Now, he's been reported to be aimed at this race, and possibly Hawkbill and Wings Of Desire - both entered - but who will have to concede 5lb and 3lbs to Idaho respectively.
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i dont rate him 123 i think the trainer is trying to justify the 75k supplementary fee for the derby . desperately looking for a good race he can win, to say ,see toldya he was good . and hes not . on a positive note this race is a good prep for the fresh late season horses so maybe his level maybe high enough as his form fades to beat those fresh horses in the ascendancy . but i doubt it
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According to AOB today USAR could be heading for the Royal Whip - Gp3 and 10f - at the Curragh on 21st Aug so he is unlikely for this race (17th Aug); Hawkbill is heading for the Juddmonte, and with Wings Of Desire (needs to give 3lbs) running this weekend Idaho could be the value bet come the race at 5/1, if he runs of course, but highly likely now as AOB's running plans for his horses are getting clearer.
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If one believes Idaho will be running in this race at York - he has no other engagement prior - Idaho must represent tremendous value at 7/2 given his form and the 3lbs he'll be receiving from the likes of Across The Stars, Wings Of Desire and Sword Fighter - the 3 principal runners of this race - compare to 5/1 for the Leger.
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I have spent days looking through this race and have come to the conclusion that Idaho could be 6/4 on the day if most horses go where I think (hope) they will go. I have taken 5/1 via several different accounts with the only bookies (jokers) who priced it, and then did the same with the 9/2. Over the last few weeks I have requested that several other books price the race up, most of whom refused until s kybet priced it. I still believe that the 3/1 available today may well prove to be value on the day.
Incidentally, is it not shocking that a bet of £50 at 5/1 on an antepost market will prompt a bookmaker to cut a price? |
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johnn
Helped myself to 5 wagers at £10 each at 10/1 right down to 6/1 on Idaho; even at the present 3/1 - Paddies only 2/1 - and receiving 3lbs from Wings Of Desire, Sword Fighter and Across The Stars is tremendous value; the trip of 12f which is identical to the Epsom Derby is an added bonus. All I need now is for him to turn up on 17th Aug, the rest come what may. Next time try staking £20 at a time on ante-post, that way it is unlikely to trigger the 'attention' of the trading dept. Good luck! |
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Bet-noway's trading department are alerted by a £12 bet, it seems.
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At long last money has come in for Idaho, and rightly so given race conditions and form lines. If the 'Coolmore' boys participate in the betting market on race day Idaho could easily start odds-on, I believe.
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He's the one to beat on form, but let's see what lines up & what the ground is? Hopefully g/f (over the 4days) will be heading down if so :-)
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The present going is good to firm and the forecast is indicating only about 15ml of rain expected between now and next saturday - the going at worst is good, I think.
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Today is confirmation day and these could be the doubtful runners; Muntahaaa, given his engagement this saturday in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes and 'fav'; Ulysses could be missing too as his trainer had been reported to be none too committal; Wings Of Desire, would have to give 3lbs to Idaho and so soon after his gallant 2nd in the King George.
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Significant late money for USAR,...more misery for antepost participants perhaps.
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6/4 Idaho.
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Win or lose that's top tipping johnn, well done.
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A red herring by the greedy bookies on USAR to fill their antepost satchels even more.
No betting on Wings Of Desire, Sword Fighter, Algometer, Ulysses and Red Verdon - presumably non-runners I'd imagine. And Idaho is currently best price at 6/4, and receiving 3lbs from 2nd 'fav', Across The Stars, who is 7/2. |
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Cheers figgis, relatively modest stakes at the prices, here's hoping for no mishaps between now and Wednesday.
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Only 6 for this race with AOB responsible for 3 of them; Idaho is best price at 11/10,...should win to cement his Leger 'fav' status in receipt of 3lbs from 2nd 'fav' Across The Stars.
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Almost time for the talking to stop. "Should" don't pay the mortgage. Good luck, imposs123.
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johnn
On ratings Idaho ought to walk this race receiving 3lbs from the 2nd 'fav', Across The Stars, on the two Derby forms. I hope the early antepost prices we both helped ourselves to result in a positive return. But the Leger is a different story given an additional two furlongs. Good luck! |
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Laid a bit off at odds on, makes sense. Now effectively have a bet at 18/1. Off to York this morning.
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Great call guys.
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What a day best day at york since Kingsgate Native and speed gifted
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