Darley July Cup (sat 9th)

Magical Memory and Limato are logical choices but I shall give that 'monkey' Air Force Blue (14/1) a LAST chance given he'll most likely get his ground (good/fast) next week - last chance and no more. If he cannot deliver I think it's best if AOB retires him before he causes more pain for punters.

Bit worried about the track for him but I have to keep faith with Limato - max bet @ 8/1.

Warm sunny weather and quick rattling ground at long last!
David O'meara has been having a lean time of it this last few weeks.His string has just not firing.Laid a few of his but careful not to take it for granted his lean spell will continue.Glad I didn't lay his last handful of runners...4 wins from 5.Maybe he's got his string back on track.His French import Suedois ran well in the Duke of York and Diamond Jubilee.Just needs to improve a touch to win the July Cup.Worth a go at 20/1 plus.

Backed Limato too a few weeks back at 10/1 (posted on Flat thread) mostly because I never believed they'd be aiming at the Group 2 Summer Mile on the same day even though they have given him an entry. I'll have a saver on Magical Memory.

Interetsing that they have supplemented Profitable.

Can't have Profitable over a stiff 6f - why not just wait for the Nunthorpe and Abbaye.

Win, lose or draw that 50/1 about AROD is simply the wrong price.

At long last the keen pulling Arod steps down in trip.Just have to have a dabble at 50s!

Looks like the rain may scupper Limato again.

Some rain forecast, but still think the ground will be on the fast side of Gd come Sat Uncle, bit of rain Sat morn, but clearing to be a warm & sunny Day from what I can see on the forecasts? Think Twilight Son needs the rain to run imo? Let's see what comes, hopefully not much rain I hope, seen enough of the bloody stuff this "summer"

I don't see that Twilight Son needs the rain to run. He's 2 wins, 2 runs on ground officially described as Good To Firm. His Sire is Kyllachy,the same as Sole Power who we are always told needs fast ground and regularly gets withdrawn when the ground is on the soft side!

He may be less inconvenienced by soft ground than some of his opposition - only one disappointing run in his whole career (and even that was n't too bad) when his stable was out of form and we were told beforehand he'd need the run because he's bone idle at home. I expect him to improve from his Diamond Jubilee run and be very hard to beat.

Trying to be a bit more original, Goken is interesting - could n't understand why Kevin Ryan was persevering with him at Group level until his run in the King's Stand when he was doing all his best work at the end, his form does suggest he will need the rain though.

Profitable has obvious claims but for e/w value Cotai Glory and Arod appeal.

Don't rule out Newmarket specialist(July and Rowley) Eastern Impact to run a big race on this ground at a huge price.

Money is already coming in for AFB (8/1 from 14/1), and expect more tomorrow. This is the last chance saloon for him, I reckon.

I've seen it mentioned that AFB could be another Mozart or Stravinsky (O'Brien runners that successfully dropped back to sprints) but I can't see the comparison. Stravinsky never won over further than 6f and on all his attempts at 7f he ran out of gas in the final furlong. Mozart won over 7f but after showing great early pace always looked like he was just hanging on over the trip. AFB got 7f very well as a 2yo, so well that it would be a surprise if he couldn't get a mile as a 3yo, especially as he hasn't exactly faced a vintage season of 3yo milers. Also Stravinsky and Mozart had shown reasonable form as 3yos, whereas AFB has shown absolutely zilch.

I always thought AFB's 2yo form had been greatly overrated anyway but there's no doubt his form this season has gone massively backwards. His running has been extremely poor even before stamina came into play so the mile can't be used as an excuse. Possibly he's started to show improved form at home and they're expecting a better display. However, they seemed perfectly happy with him before the Guineas and if he has been showing more lately then I don't see the reason to drop him back in distance.

You can see why given the form of the stable - the fact that Moore stays in UK to ride him (plus a Ballydoyle 2yo) is persuasive but they also run Washington DC which makes me think they might be taking a punt.

After a few years when the standard of sprinting was mediocre we seem to have a decent crop of sprinters now as evidenced by plausible case made for nearly half the field on this thread.

I will stick with Twilight Son in the morning when he'll probably drift because of perceived concerns about the ground and support for the likes of AFB - negatives for him are potentially the pilot I suppose and the fact that he's no experience of the July course.

But he's already won two Group 1 sprints - and was beaten only by a monster in his other one.

Seems like more like a last ditch punt to me, ReaseHeath. If he has been showing improvement then surely it would make sense to keep him at a mile, as top miler is still up for grabs from anything half decent.

Not sure about the ground for Quiet Reflection but will back each way along with Magical Memory.

AFB has gone/not trained on imo. Couldn't touch him with counterfeit.

13/2 now for AFB, and (£)thousands queuing up to back it here. Could this go off at 4/1 or less, I wonder?

This is a pretty competitive renewal but I don't have it as up to scratch, with the best runners only having shown Gp2 form even if they've won a Gp1. I backed Twilight Son at Ascot and while I was obviously happy with the win I was a bit disappointed with the form. I backed TS in the expectation of him coming on for his first run, which he did, but I also anticipated him improving on last year, which in my view he didn't so I think it'll be difficult for him to keep winning Gp1s. Profitable has done well this year to go from Gp3 to Gp2 to Gp1 but his form looks to have levelled off, it was a hard fought victory last time and he'll have to be exceptionally tough to keep up that form. I have hardly anything between him, Twilight Son and Magical Memory at his best but none of them look likely improvers and I reckon they're beatable.

For me there are very few runners with obvious potential to improve. Limato has to be one, with only one run this year I couldn't rule him out but won't be backing him. Arod is another, as I think sprinters more than any other bracket are most likely to improve at the age of 5 and the drop down in trip shouldn't be a problem for him. A few pounds progression on his best form last year would give him a winning chance but apparently he's not been a well horse and even at a big price I'll let him pass. I've already mentioned Air Force Blue and while I don't see him as an out an out sprinter a return to his best would see him with a good chance, but I'll pass on him too.

My top rated on these terms is Quiet Reflection. I expected her to win more easily than she did last time but I believe with a stronger early pace she would have. I suppose there has to be a question of whether she'll do as well on faster ground but she's not exactly a total mudlark. I have her Haydock win as her best form and the straight was the fast side of good by my reckoning. At the price I'll happily take a chance on her handling tomorrow's ground.

Air Force Blue is by War Front so maybe the "war front" angle (Mise en Rose and Roly Poly today)on fast turf is getting attention.See if the Ballydoyle mob get involved before the off.Mozart always looked like a Sprinter waiting to happen.Only miler here looking like a sprinter waiting to happen is Arod.

Was a big fan of AFB last yr @ 2yo, & with the view as a 3yo, but he has disappointed badly twice now??
Fast ground will suit him, but can't take myself to backing him as a 3yo having viewed his 2 races this season, doesn't look to want it this season.
AOB is a genius trainer, if anyone can get him back, he can, but not for me 2day, until I see different.
Had a few more ew on Magical Memory again this morn, he will love the faster ground & hopefully pace ? Limato my other fast ground hope.
Just hope they don't overdo the holding up tactics, it's been difficult to pull off here this week?
Gd luck with your bets lads :-)

You are very disciplined Figgis. I couldn't possibly think and write that about Arod, check his price (33/40 atow) then pass.  Bravo old boy!

I don't know about disciplined, Headmaster, although there may be some self-flagellation if he wins

Arod to make pace and hold on.

Different class - glad he finally proved it.

No complaints about Quiet Reflection, ran well in defeat. Well done uncle, sint, any other winners. Limato has improved again, a proper Gp1 performance and will obviously be very hard to beat next time. The market told a different story than the one from Candy's lips.

Air Force Blue never had a race - wouldn't give up with him yet.

yep, well done winners - Twilight Son did n't act on the ground despite my protestations - never a bad thing to find out though - plenty of good sprints at Haydock

Winner was highly impressive - I liked Quiet Reflection's effort too.

After seeing Limato burst away today I cannot believe Candy ever considered running him in the G2 Mile at Ascot, even if he is suggesting the Sussex Stakes next.

Not miler & never has been imo. Speed horse on fast ground 6 or 7 furlongs.
Very classy performance yest.

The Santa Anita 6 1/2f turf track will be ideal then.