Royal Ascot Weather

I have not seen the forecast myself, but a couple of people have said the same thing.

So, if there is significant rain and the going becomes Good to Soft, then I expect these horses will still run but it will compromise their chance.

Time Test - 4/1 for POW
The Grey Gatsby - 8/1 for POW
Muthmir - 8/1 Kings Stand

There are others too but they don't seem quite as ground dependant.

Horses it will increase the chances of ...

Awtaad - 7/2 for SJP, though the Gurkha won't mind it either.

Qemah in Coronation Stakes?

Meccas Angel - currently 10/1 for Kings Stand

Ervedya handles cut in the ground very well as does Belardo, though Ervedya can go on firm too.

Looked 10 day forecast yesterday, plenty of rain this weekend, showers next Tuesday and Wednesday morning, though we all know our weather changes day by day

Ah, gutting really. I think the horse/race it will affect the most is Time Test and the POW. The Japanese horse could go off odds-on if it gets proper soft.

Really hard to predict this weather - it's not the typical Atlantic Westerlies but rain coming up from the continent, so more sparse but heavier in places. There's a flood alert in place for today (Tue!) in case you didn't know.

It's obviously extremely important and this a.m. Turftrax should give the first going map of Ascot (I think, or else Thurs) - Presumably it'll be G/F and watering to maintain, anything else would be a shock,

How much water does it take to maintain - If memory serves it's usually between 5-10mm and the forecast rain I see won't do much damage at all,

I'd love to see the ground turn soft for my book, but I don't see it just yet

I see about 30-35mm between now and Tue, which if they turn off the sprinklers should keep it at least good,


If anyone can refresh my memory, how does Ascot take the rain ?

The one atm I like if it comes on the softer side is Ballydoyle over Nemoralia - Bdoyle has the collateral form with Minding on G/S, Nemoralia for all her brilliance seems to want it dirt hard.

Ascot takes it very well, dries quick too.

The weekend weather is inclement and next week is no better pretty similar to those experienced at Epsom last week. Would be appreciated if anyone living near the course could give a daily update.

Warm, moist air from the continent will be made more unstable by a system coming over it from the Atlantic, bringing the risk of 20 mm rainfall or more in an hour and 50 mm in a few hours. Many areas will miss the showers and storms, but where they do occur expect localised flooding and hail, whilst lightning strikes could disrupt power supplies.

Turftrax only came out Good - disappointingly - straight course 7,5 (8 firm, 7 G/S)

It's taking some on now by the looks of things also, can't see anyway it holds Good

It's lashing down in Cheam, is it in Ascot?

they missed the bundles of rain yesterday, only 4mm. Nice dry day tomorrow and Friday though more rain forecast after that.

No rain forecast for the next three days on the site I use and would be leathe to look any further ahead than that. I'd personally be surprised if it's any softer than good tbh.

Jun 8, 2016 -- 11:15PM, Can't Catch Me wrote:

No rain forecast for the next three days on the site I use and would be leathe to look any further ahead than that. I'd personally be surprised if it's any softer than good tbh.

If you want to make a sidebet on that I'll give you some action

Two ante post life changer multis done.

One - Good ground speculative Heinz
Two - Sh!te ground speculative Heinz

Ok ffs. What do you propose?!

A can of Heinz beans at a stake!

Current going is now, G, GF in places with CoC saying they might only get 2mm per day until Tuesday, but that's being optimistic I suspect

Jun 9, 2016 -- 8:19AM, Can't Catch Me wrote:

Ok ffs. What do you propose?!

No, not now! .. it's come around, but the Atlantic band is coming maybe Sunday night.

Today was a very good day for Fast ground horses, but there is a lot of rain to fall yet,


I wonder how much they usually water to maintain - probably about 10mm ?

Ascot  / Tue 14 Jun
First Race: 2:30 pm Going/TrackStraight Course: Good to Soft Round Course: Good to Soft, Soft in places (GoingStick: Straight: 7.5, Round: 7.7 on Friday at 12:30)
Updated @ 7:41am, Sat 11 Jun Weather 20mm rain Friday evening. Possible occasional showers forecast for today. Showers more likely for Sunday. Then sunshine and showers forecast for every day next week.
Updated @ 7:41am, Sat 11 Jun

20 mill overnight, soft side of good now

Should have held your nerve ffs! Nailed on soft side of good now

I think Galileo Gold, Time Test, Nemoralia and Ballydoyle will be most inconvenienced if surface is soft or worse whilst Mecca's Angel, Awtaad and Jet Setting will thrive on it.

Jun 11, 2016 -- 11:20AM, Can't Catch Me wrote:

Should have held your nerve ffs! Nailed on soft side of good now

boy oh boy, this will shake things up, I had no idea it was gone so bad, and no letup in the forecast

Ground to remain on easy side- Ascot clerk of the course Chris Stickels believes good ground is "very unlikely" at this week's Royal meeting.

Already facing the prospect of good to soft ground, no less than three millimetres fell at the Berkshire track from 8am to 11.30am on Sunday.

Stickels said on Sunday: "It is currently good to soft on the straight course and good to soft, soft in places on the round course. We've had three millimetres of rain since 8am this morning and it is still drizzling. I will take a further look this afternoon and update if need be.

"The forecast is for unsettled weather all week and it is simply annoying. There is nothing we can do about it. I suppose we haven't had a proper soft ground Royal meeting for some time and it will suit some horses, but for the majority I shouldn't think it would.

"We are forecast to get between five and seven millimetres tomorrow, three to five on Wednesday and between four and five on Thursday.

"While it drains well, once you get to good to soft, three to four millimetres of rain is all it will take to turn it soft. Once you get juice in it, it takes time to dry out and I'd say the prospect of good ground is very unlikely now."

If they get the 7mm today then it will be proper soft all over. Gutting.

What weather app is telling u that sint?

Ascot  / Tue 14 Jun
First Race: 2:30 pm Going/TrackStraight Course: Good to Soft Round Course: Good to Soft, Soft in places (GoingStick: Standside: 6.9, Centre: 6.7, Farside: 6.9. Round: 6.3 on Monday at 08:15)
Updated @ 8:20am, Mon 13 Jun Rails: The running rail on the round course is positioned approx 3yds out from approx 9f out to the Home straight. This rail will be in place for Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday. Consequent approx changes to race distances are: Tuesday: Race 4: Old Mile: An increase of 3yds. Race 5: 2m 4f: An increase of 9yds. Wednesday: Race 4: 1m 2f: An increase of 9yds. Thursday: Races 2,3,4 & 6: An increase of 9yds.
Updated @ 8:05am, Sun 12 Jun Stalls: Straight course: Centre Round course: Inside
Updated @ 6:43am, Sun 12 Jun Weather 20mm rain Friday evening, then 4mm rain Saturday. 3mm rain Sunday. Dry overnight to 7am Monday. Showers expected Monday, then sunshine and showers expected every day until Friday when it is possible that more settled conditions may arrive.
Updated @ 6:58am, Mon 13 Jun

going stick reading for round course is only 6.3. I will have to try and check on turftrax for achieved readings but that is LOW

Scattered heavy thundery showers are expected to develop, and will once again lead to slow-moving downpours across the warning area. Some parts will inevitably miss most, or all, of the heavier rain.

Please be aware of possible localised flooding and disruption to travel.

Local weather warning for Ascot area for today

Today
Rather cloudy, with an area of mostly light rain in western parts gradually breaking up into brighter but more showery conditions, with a risk of showers generally by afternoon. Some of these showers will again be heavy and perhaps thundery.

Tonight
Remaining heavy showers will gradually become fewer and further between through the evening, leaving a drier but rather cloudy night with a westerly breeze moving remaining showers through.

More non-runners amongst the principal runners is almost a given if today's weather warning materialises. If so, could the meeting be abandoned or postponed if the ground is unraceable or racecourse looded? If so, how are the bets on the Exchange and on-street bookies be affected? A total refund or lost?

Last seasons readings :

19-Jun-15    Good to Firm (Watered)    Standside: 8.8
Centre: 8.5
Farside: 8.5
Round 7.8
on Friday at 08:15
18-Jun-15    Good to Firm (Watered)    Round: 8.4; Standside: 9.0; Centre: 8.5; Far Side: 8.9
on Thursday at 08:15.
17-Jun-15    Good to Firm (Firm in places)    Standside: 9.3
Centre: 9.1
Farside: 9.2
Round 8.6
on Wednesday at 08:15
16-Jun-15    Good to Firm    Round: 8.1
Standside: 8.5
Centre: 8.3
Far side: 8.5
on Tuesday at 08:15

imposs cant lose your money if races dont go ahead

I live a few miles from Ascot and we have had some more rain this morning which has stopped now but I would be very surprising if the meeting was cancelled.

Gutted. Some nice Antepost vouchers that I may as well bin now. And most races will no doubt be a lottery

geoff m,

Thanks. I'd be gutted if the meeting is cancelled or postponed. Once again, I've been very lucky; my book is sweet given the probable prevailing weather on the day of the races; Mecca's Angel, A Shin Hikari and Jet Setting are all winners for me, more were they to win; I've also indulged in a few trebles and an acca with Awtaad.

As long as the carriages can cope with the soft ground, that matters more apparently

Ascot could start on soft ground after more rain
By Bruce Jackson 5:35PM 13 JUN 2016

ROYAL ASCOT is likely to begin on soft ground following rain at the track yesterday.

There has been 29mm of rain at the track since Friday, with the chance of showers on Monday evening. The forecast remains unsettled, with the chance of more showers until Friday before a dry forecast for the weekend.

The ground is officially good to soft, soft in places on the round course with yesterday's GoingStick readings of 6.9 on the straight course and 6.3 on the round course.

This year's royal meeting is set to have its softest ground start in modern times and Ascot clerk of the course Chris Stickels said: "It's nearly soft all over. We've had softer ground during a royal meeting and last year's King George meeting had lower GoingStick readings after 30mm of rain."

Stickels reported the straight course readings suggesting the middle of the track could be a shade slower than either rail but does not expect there to be a significant draw bias.
Ascot royal procession

The royal procession still plans to make its way up the one-mile straight
  PICTURE: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos) 

Royal procession goes ahead as planned

The traditional royal procession of four horse-drawn carriages is expected to go ahead as planned up the track's one-mile straight, notwithstanding ground softened significantly by heavy rain in the last few days.

Head of communications Nick Smith said that it is "not without precedent" for the royal party to arrive by road instead, but added that it had not happened in his 17 years at the track and there is no talk of it yet this year.

He said: "I can't remember it happening in my time but I know there have been occasions in the past that the procession has decamped and had a vehicle arrival, so it's not without precedent. I understand that it's not a decision that is taken until later on, but there are no concerns at present and so that discussion has not taken place."

why cant they walk the lazy gits

Not a bad idea. The Queen and Duke Of Edinburgh can motorise,...the rest of the hangers-on should be made to walk!

Going/TrackSoft (GoingStick: Standside: 6.9, Centre: 6.7, Farside: 6.9. Round: 6.3 on Monday at 08:15)
Updated @ 6:21am, Tue 14 Jun Rails: The running rail on the round course is positioned approx 6Yds out from the 1m 4f start decreasing to 3yds out about 9f out to the Home straight. This rail will be in place for Tuesday and Wednesday. Consequent approx changes to race distances are: Tuesday: Race 4: Old Mile: An increase of 3yds. Race 5: 2m 4f: An increase of 17yds. Wednesday: Race 4: 1m 2f: An increase of 10yds.
Updated @ 5:14pm, Mon 13 Jun Stalls: Straight course: Centre Round course: Inside
Updated @ 6:43am, Sun 12 Jun Weather 4mm rain overnight to 6am Tuesday. Sunshine and showers expected every day until Friday when it is possible that more settled conditions may arrive.
Updated @ 6:21am, Tue 14 Jun

It's bucketing down again at Ascot......soon it'll be unraceable.