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unclepuncle
05 Jun 16 10:57
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Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 12,554 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
With many of the market leaders unlikely to run (Postponed, Fascinating Rock, Found etc) I have backed Wings Of Desire @ 16/1.
Very creditable run when an eased down 4th in the Derby, and better ground and 10f on a more conventional stiff track should be perfect for him.

No idea if this is the plan but if I were Gosden I'd rather go here than take on the front 3 at Epsom in the Irish Derby. He ran his Derby winners Benny The Dip and Golden Horn in the Eclipse so clearly likes it.

Depending on how the field shapes up he could go off closer to 5/2 imo.
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Report Figgis July 2, 2016 1:57 PM BST
Apparently 14yds have been added to round course, so using the first race time as a guide it can't possibly be any slower than good to soft on the round course. Obviously the Eclipse is run later, the ground could get slower and the first race was only 7f so we don't know how it's riding further out but no need to panic about the ground just yet.
Report ReaseHeath July 2, 2016 2:00 PM BST
agree, have n't looked it up but if memory serves me correctly 7f races were slower yesterday.
Report impossible123 July 2, 2016 3:52 PM BST
Looked like The Gurkha did not stay. Looked after by Moore and did not get a hard race. Now back to the Sussex Stakes.
Report EastLower Gooner July 2, 2016 3:54 PM BST
turned into test...pace collapsed very early in the straight.
Report Figgis July 2, 2016 3:57 PM BST
Time Test not good enough, I thought The Gurkha stayed well enough just beaten by the better horse. Even though this was a fairly weak renewal I thought it still required a big step up from Hawksbill so well done winners.
Report Figgis July 2, 2016 3:57 PM BST
*Hawkbill
Report knavesmire007 July 2, 2016 4:12 PM BST
Time Test only just beat the pacemaker 2L,that tells me they didn't go fast enough today for the closers.
AOB "always viewed him(Gurkha) as a miler,lorra speed".
Roll on Goodwood!We should see the Gurkha at his best,use that kick on an easier track.
Report impossible123 July 2, 2016 4:23 PM BST
The Gurkha quickened and went ahead of Hawksbill but the latter outstayed him towards the end. Unlikely ever to see The Gurkha run in a 10f race again; he just ran out of puff in the last 1/2 furlong I think.
Report Figgis July 2, 2016 4:27 PM BST
The race looked no better than an ordinary Gp2 race beforehand and still looks that way afterwards. Seems like The Gurkha will be one of those horses where excuses will always be made, he's nowhere near O'Brien's past best milers and I'd again have him as one to oppose in the Sussex but unfortunately it looks another weak affair at the moment.
Report knavesmire007 July 2, 2016 4:52 PM BST
I was never a fan of The Gurkha as a "king of the mountains" type,racing on stiff tracks on soft going.It is a speed/turn of foot colt imo,as we saw in France on good going.
Report ReaseHeath July 2, 2016 4:56 PM BST

Jul 2, 2016 -- 10:23AM, impossible123 wrote:


The Gurkha quickened and went ahead of Hawksbill but the latter outstayed him towards the end. Unlikely ever to see The Gurkha run in a 10f race again; he just ran out of puff in the last 1/2 furlong I think.


Listening to AOB before and after the race it sounded like they just took a bit of a punt to try and win another G1 - they were originally targeting Deauville at it but the ground went against him I think?

Backing a loser aside I was fairly underwhelmed - not gonna get a slide rule out but the distances between Time Test and Western Hymn and My Dream Boat and Western Hymn were reasonably consistent with the form of their races against each other earlier in the season once you factor in the weight allowances.

Nothing there to convince me Time Test is a Group 1 winner in waiting even on fast ground and although the winner is admirably progressive and has now won 6 on the bounce, all his turf wins are with  cut and even two of his all weather wins are on Standard To Slow!

Think I'd want to start with the 3yos for the Juddmonte International at this stage, not least the 1-2 in the Dante

Report Figgis July 2, 2016 4:57 PM BST
The horses he beat in France though just weren't very good, if First Selection had raced today The Gurkha would've brushed him aside as in France.
Report impossible123 July 2, 2016 5:06 PM BST
The only elder horse yet to be tested is Postponed, but that will most likely come in the 'Arc' with Harzand, USAR and Minding in the field. Hopefully, AOB will send Idaho to the King George VI & QEII later this month to get a better handle on Postponed.

The Gurkha is no world beater and this race was an afterthought. But no worries, I think his backers today will have a very good chance of a return from The Sussex Stakes.
Report knavesmire007 July 2, 2016 5:10 PM BST
To quicken like that in any French Guineas off a slow pace on top of the ground with the best France has to offer in the race shows what the Gurkha is all about...that turn of foot.
Report harry callaghan July 2, 2016 7:34 PM BST
wd winners

another average grade 1 and the gurkha found little when asked, i wouldn't say he didn't stay but considering hawkbill ran on the heat most of the race and deserves extra credit for that, it was disappointing that the gurkha found so little when moore gave him the office

i did respect the winner pre race i just didn't think he won that greater race at ascot, he fools you a tad as he only just does enough but he was nothing if not game here and continues to progress, i see no reason to believe he has to have cut in ground, it will certainly be interesting to see if they lock horns again this season maybe in the irish champion stakes
Report unclepuncle July 2, 2016 8:16 PM BST
Always looked like being a weak renewal (hence my OP) and with weather not helping that's exactly what we got.

The Gurkha stayed ok just wasn't good enough, which given the big age for weight allowance at this stage of the season is disappointing.
Coolmore shoukd have run Minding here instead of the pointless cakewalk she had last week.
Report impossible123 July 2, 2016 8:45 PM BST
If sound, The Gurkha will definitely take up his Sussex Stakes engagement at Goodwood to try and wrestle back/redeem his reputation as the Top Miler in Europe by beating Galileo Gold as it'll mean a massive boost to his stallion value and stud fee. And the 'Coolmore' boys will back him as if defeat is out of the question I'm 100% certain.

If Moore messes up (again) it could be 'sayonara' for Moore as a 'retain' jockey for Ballydoyle.
Report FELTFAIR July 3, 2016 10:33 AM BST
The Gurkha, settled,travelled,quickened and battled but not quite as well as Hawkbill.
Report impossible123 July 3, 2016 11:28 AM BST
I agree with AOB, the ground and distance were more conducive for Hawksbill than The Gurkha but at a mile and good ground The Gurkha will put Hawksbill in his place and so will Galileo Gold.
Report FELTFAIR July 3, 2016 12:09 PM BST
Hawkbill over a mile, I don`t think so.
Report knavesmire007 July 3, 2016 1:33 PM BST
Time Test fans need not be too disappointed.I thought before the race the only chance he had was to get well prominant,track  pacemaker,get first run cause his turn of foot wasn't going to happen today.Leave pacemaker at home,let him make the running on softish going.
My Dream Boat needs the race at this level to suit a Closer,"held up" didn't figure in a winner saturday.
The Gurkha on soft going stiff tracks!not for me.All about gears not stamina.I'd like to see him have another try at 10f with track/going to suit.He settles well,York good to firm ideal.
Hawkbill had the run of the race imo on a day where horses who liked to race prominantly had an advantage.could be anything but Jury still out for me.
Report sintonian July 3, 2016 8:56 PM BST
Think that was a belting run from Time Test. Going was genuine soft and he's ran into an improving 3yo. The Gurkha is just overrated on the performance of his France win.
Report unclepuncle July 3, 2016 9:56 PM BST
Wonder if they will look at the King George with Time Test if it comes up good to firm, or is it straight to York for the Juddmonte!
Report Sandown July 4, 2016 10:48 AM BST
Either Countermeasure improved 33 lb if we are to believe RPR's , in which case he must be a certainty in his next handicap, or the RPR's for the race are distorted in order to make sense of the race.

Ignore Countermeasure and the revised ratings would appear reasonable. With him in, they are not. In this instance the time ratings make more sense putting Countermeasure on 87 (+6 vs OR) with Hawkbill on 93.

Who are we to trust in this instance?
Report Figgis July 4, 2016 2:11 PM BST
I rate that the ground was slower for the latter races and have a reasonable Gp2 standard figure for the race. On time figures I have Hawkbill up 11lbs and The Gurkha down 2lbs on his SJP run. I don't believe it was a slowly run race and reckon Countermeasure ran the race of his life, probably helped by the conditions and forcing tactics and I wouldn't back him to run as well again. For me this is simply a flaw in the way racing is thought of in terms of form ratings. In any other sport it is accepted that players/teams can occasionally perform much better than usual and aren't necessarily expected to repeat it, they are judged more on their average form. Whereas in racing a horse has to be form rated on its best run.
Report sageform July 6, 2016 8:09 AM BST
Countermeasure does put a spanner in the works when trying to rate the race but pacemakers often finishes closer than they should as they are allowed an easy lead and in soft ground, getting past and then away from them is difficult. If Time Test ran to 10lb below his best on good ground, you would probably get a realistic rating for the others. Looking back at Countermeasure, he might easily be a 95 horse on soft as he ran quite well on the AW when allowed to lead and all of his other races were run in France where the pace is often very slow.
Report Sandown July 6, 2016 12:35 PM BST
From a time rating standpoint, we have another race over 10f to compare the Eclipse with. One hour after the Eclipse, Gibbs Hill and White Shaheen ran to a s/h just over 3 secs slower than Hawkbill.

The RPR ratings for GH/WS were raised to 88/91 (+9/+8 vs OR's) and +6/+4 vs PB RPR's which on the face of it is not unreasonable. Their official ratings were 79/83. The RP has given these horses TS ratings of 65/68 implying that the race was run at a slower pace than the form ratings would suggest.

Using this race as the anchor,and using the TS figures used, I would have expected the TS for the Eclipse winner to be 89 but the actual TS given was 93. Like Figgis said, I might have expected the going to be slower for the later race, not higher as implied by this difference. However, we are only talking about a difference of 4lb which can be explained by other factors such as WFA so I'll let that discrepancy go.

Assuming that the time for the later race was NOT slowly run and in fact was fully up to official ratings,then using that as the anchor going allowance for the Eclipse, I would have Hawkbill on 104 which puts Countermeasure on 98 (+17 vs OR).I could not justify the later h/cap race being rated any higher and therefore I cannot rate the Eclipse any higher, on time.

To rate the Eclipse on collateral ratings and putting Hawkbill on 123 with Countermeasure on 114, is to my mind stretching things somewhat. In short, there must be a strong wealth warning on these ratings. I cannot accept an explanation for Countermeasures' hugely increased run/rating as one of those things that can happen when a trail blazer can put up a never to be repeated ratings which can therefore be overlooked. To my mind the form of the Eclipse is highly suspect. As for Countermeasure, he may be better than he was previously assessed. He certainly looks like a good horse and on breeding and with his connections, he might be as good as that run suggests. We must remember that there was not a change of going, tactics or  a new trip,for this horse. I look forward to seeing him run again.
Report Figgis July 6, 2016 1:29 PM BST
I found it difficult to rate Countermeasure before the race as on a few occasions he'd been employed purely as a pacemaker and it was obvious he hadn't always been given the opportunity to show what he could do. Nevertheless, even though I didn't expect him to run so well I don't see anything so unusual as to make the form suspect. I can think of dozens of races where horses ran way above their average form ( just as I can with competitors in other sports). One of the earliest times I can remember was when Mtoto put up a great time in his first POW, the second horse was Amerigo Vespucci, which might'vs cast a doubt as to how good a performance it was. I don't have the form to hand but I'm sure AV was made fav for some race afterwards but I don't recall him ever running as well again. Mtoto on the other hand went on to show just how good a piece of form it was.

For me this is a shortcoming of employing strict form ratings. I think people who rate on times are more prepared to acknowledge that runners occasionally do perform well above their average, whereas form ratings compilers often try to make everything fit.
Report Sandown July 6, 2016 4:57 PM BST
Your memory is pretty good Figgis if you can recall  a run from 1986 but you are correct. Amerigo Vespucci ran to a TF time figure of 118 against Mtoto and although he didn't win afterwards either in '86 or 87 he did run to a time figure of 112 subsequently in 86. At the end of the year he was rated 112 by TF and 98 at the end of '87.

Generally, you don't see such large increases in PB in one race other than early in a horses life after just one or two runs. AV was also a 5yr old in 86 so I would have raised a question mark at the time. Perhaps I did, I can't remember. I know that I followed Mtoto from his first 3yr old win at Sandown and whilst he got beat at Longchamp he didn't owe me anything.

Let's just say that for me the jury is out on the Eclipse form generally and the rating of Countermeasure until such time that he runs again. If he is very short on his next run, I'll watch but I'd be with him if he wasn't very short and is not raised by 10-15lbs or more.
Report Figgis July 6, 2016 5:40 PM BST
Sandown, it was 1987, the reason I remember it clearly is it was because of that performance that I paid my first visit to a racecourse, Sandown Park, purely to back Mtoto to beat Reference Point, who I'd backed ante post for that year's Derby. It was a good early period for me, but there have been many poor patches since just to even things out for any aftertime vigilantes Wink. I take it the 118 timefigure was Timeform? Personally I was never a fan of their timefigures, I thought it was a Gp1 time performance at the time, although with more experience behind me now I probably wouldn't be as gung ho about his chances as I was back then.

Back to Countermeasure, he had only one run as a 2yo in June and it appears he was expected to win but didn't. Then I guess he had some kind of setback as he didn't reappear until the following year. After two disappointing efforts he was soon employed as a pacemaker where he was given no chance to run on his merits. Apparently he was then gelded at the end of the year and switched to Charlton. His first run for the yard was promising even though it didn't point to him running so well in the Eclipse. I don't think it's unusual at all to see an older horse finally fulfil some of the potential it had early on.

Maybe he's now 'turned a corner' and can go on to repeat that form, but in view of his history it wouldn't be any surprise if this turned out to be just a rare good day. Even if he does remain in good form he still hasn't proved he's got what it takes at the business end of a race so unless he gets a perfect setup he might find it difficult to win, even in a lower class. Also I don't think it was an especially good run anyway, it was a Gp1 in name only in my view, the form of the front two is just an ordinary Gp2 level and he was beaten over 4 lengths by them. I suppose some people will wait to see what happens to Countermeasure next time then upgrade or downgrade the Eclipse based on that but I think it's a mistake to revise a race around one beaten horse.
Report Figgis July 6, 2016 6:03 PM BST
I thought it was a Gp1 time performance * from Mtoto that is.
Report impossible123 July 6, 2016 9:06 PM BST
Mtoto, Reference Point and Tryptych, what an Eclipse? Truly sensational, a race to treasure forever! Sadly, no more races of that kind anymore.
Report knavesmire007 July 7, 2016 10:43 AM BST
Countermeasure didn't want to blast off in front just to be ignored by the rest of the field,therefore it was not a race run at a fast pace,Countermeasure get's an easy uncontested easy lead on a track suiting horses racing prominantly.Still did well to hang around for so long though.The time of the race was similar to the 7f and mile races on the card.
Report Sandown July 13, 2016 1:45 PM BST
That's handicapping over for Countermeasure as he's been given an OR of 110 up 29 lb. We'll see if its justified.
Report Figgis July 13, 2016 1:54 PM BST
Sandown, but while a repeat effort will prove it's justified a lesser effort will not necessarily prove the rating was wrong for that particular performance.
Report Sandown July 13, 2016 1:59 PM BST
True enough Figgis, but the horse has no choice now but to compete in Group races now or accept top weights in handicaps. I was hoping to make something from him but that's a forlorn hope these days. Even if I had spotted the potential before the Eclipse it would have done me no good. It's so hard to be ahead of the crowd sometimes. I don't suppose KA will be worried  losing a potential handicap winner!
Report Figgis July 13, 2016 2:18 PM BST
I have an improved rating for him but at the same time I think it's more likely he won't run as well again. Even if he does hold this form I think it still might be difficult for him in a lower Group race as I think he might always be vulnerable in the latter stages of a race.

Regarding the winner, if he comes out of the race well then I think Godolphin will be missing a huge opportunity if they skip the King George. Even though it wasn't top Gp1 form in my view if he does stay then a repeat of this form with the big weight allowance would make him the one to beat at Ascot. Postponed's form this year looks vastly overrated to me, yes he's looked good but I still haven't rated him any higher than when winning last year's King George and that was a well below average renewal. I'm not convinced he's a better horse with Varian than Cumani, he has to be worth taking on, the rest look rubbish for a Gp1 field so Godolphin should go for it.
Report Sandown July 13, 2016 3:01 PM BST
Figgis, what's your thinking on Hawkbill's stamina for 12f? It's hard getting sectionals from Sandown but I've used a marker to get an idea. I would say that the pace was all in the final 3.5f i.e. from the turn into the straight, so it wasn't a stiff test at the trip because of that.
Report impossible123 July 13, 2016 3:13 PM BST
Hawkbill would be a better test in the King George & QE II Stakes for Postponed than Highland Reel - next best in the rating but who was comprehensively beaten in the Sheema Classic but is no better off in the weights; Erupt, post a very good effort behind Silverwave is another that could give Postponed a run, if he runs but the rest are of no consideration, I think - all things being equal. Hence, Postponed is only at best 8/13 with bookies.
Report Figgis July 13, 2016 3:38 PM BST
I know very little about making anything more than basic ball park predictions from pedigrees. After some early dabblings in pedigree analysis I decided it wasn't anything I could use effectively enough to justify the time spent and frankly didn't find the subject that interesting. That's not to suggest that others can't do it better and I'll leave that sort of analysis to them.

Regarding the racecourse evidence I admit I don't know one way or the other if Hawkbill is likely to stay. I've always thought a good time win as a 2yo over a mile was a good pointer to middle distance prospects but the piece of evidence for Hawkbill over a mile last year are inconclusive as it wasn't a thorough test. He can race keenly but a faster early pace would help there. It's possible that he could completely bomb out over an extra 2 furlongs but my thinking is that he could have so much in hand here that other than a bomb out he could run a few pounds below here and still win. As has been said before the ability to stay is often relevant to the opposition.

Impressive as Postponed has looked I haven't rated his performances this year any better than his KG win last year. That wasn't a great race and I have Hawkbill's Eclipse win just 1lb behind it. However, I don't incorporate wfa allowances into my ratings so on wfa terms Hawkbill comes out with much the better chance, I have him 11lbs ahead on King George weight terms. I've said before that horses can improve at the age of 5, most don't but even the ones that do I'd say it's usually only within about 5lbs, occasionally one will improve more but they're relatively rare. Even giving Postponed the benefit of the doubt that he may have improved I would still consider Hawkbill has a likely 6lbs advantage. It's possible he may not stay a yard further than the 10f 21y the Eclipse was run over this year but with a rare opportunity for Godolphin to grab another Gp1 I'd take a punt.
Report Figgis July 13, 2016 3:45 PM BST
*relative to the opposition
Report brigust1 July 13, 2016 5:27 PM BST
Hi guys. Just passing through for Newbury races.

I cannot believe you are considering Hawkbill for the KG. His form is awful and surely this would be the worst KG ever if he were even placed. In the Eclipse he beat 2 non stayers who hated the ground and a pacemaker (not by far) who had previously been a distance behind Erupt. The race was falsely run on ground only he managed and from a forward position required to win. His previous form is also dreadful beating Prize Money well beaten since. Occasionally a Group 3 horse will pick up a Group 1 by circumstance alone and my guess is the Eclipse was one of those.
Report Figgis July 13, 2016 5:44 PM BST
There's nowt like a bit of unproductive pessimism just to add to the discussion.
Report brigust1 July 13, 2016 6:09 PM BST
For unproductive pessimism put fact based opinion. Nothing wrong with that unless this is a closed shop of course?
Report Figgis July 13, 2016 6:32 PM BST
surely this would be the worst KG ever if he were even placed

Opinion, no fact.

In the Eclipse he beat 2 non stayers


Opinion, and as Time Test has proved himself at the trip it's an absurd one.

who hated the ground

Opinion, again absurd as The Gurkha has proved he handles it.

The race was falsely run

Opinion. The race was not run at a fast early pace but it's a big stretch to call it falsely run, it was not.

I've no problem whatsoever with anyone thinking Hawkbill is a poor bet in the King George based on his price, assuming he runs. However, what he have here is "I cannot believe you are considering Hawkbill for the KG", which implies he has virtually no chance and price is irrelevant. After this we have the 'get out' that "this would be the worst KG ever if he were even placed". So if he does actually achieve what the poster think is unthinkable then it couldn't possibly be that the poster was wrong, the horse was better than he thought, or maybe even has improved. Oh no, it must be the worst KG ever!

There's no opinion from the poster beforehand if it is the worst KG ever, no opinions on what should win the race or what is a good bet at the price. In other words just the usual tedious downbeat crap.Wink
Report impossible123 July 13, 2016 7:48 PM BST
Hawkbill is rated 132 after his Eclipse triumph; he's also entered for the Great Voltiguer but will have to give Idaho 5lbs. If staying and/or winning in this race he'll no doubt head for either the St Leger or the 'Arc'. But I cannot see Hawkbill dropping back in distance post his Eclipse triumph. Incidentally, I'd have Hawkbill over Red Verdon any day on level terms and over 8/10f.
Report brigust1 July 13, 2016 9:11 PM BST
Nothing like finding out everyone has moved on, well almost everyone. Doh! And of course there are those who think only their view matters. But hey - ho.

I am a punter who forms an opinion. Sometimes I am wrong and sometimes right, that's punting for you. You form an opinion based upon your interpretation of the facts. Some may agree and some may not. That's punting for you.

My opinion is that the Eclipse was a farce. Which horse ran to form? If you use Countermeasure as a guide then none did. Except maybe Countermeasure.

The horses that beat him should have beaten him further according to the ratings and those he beat, except Bravery, he shouldn't have beaten. So something has to give. If you therefore write this race off as an unreliable guide then judging Hawkbill on his previous win should he run close in the KG it would, in my opinion, make it a poor race.
On the other hand through My Dreamboat, Found and Postponed Hamkbill could be a good thing. Through Western Hymn and Postponed Hawkbill could be a good thing. If they ran to form.

Did The Gurkha stay? AOB thinks possibly but he is dropping him back to a mile. I don't think he did but then again he may be over rated. Does Time Test stay? He has won over 10f but as everyone knows if you have optimum conditions and are much superior to the opposition 'class'will help you to stay. Something John Gosden said in the RP. Considering Charlton ran him in the Queen Anne instead of the POW perhaps Charlton is not that sure either.

Was the Eclipse truly run? I, and many others, do not think so. If it wasn't truly run then surely it must have been falsely run. The position of the pacemaker at the 2 furlong marker would back that up in my opinion.

What does anyone else think? Which horses in the Eclipse definitely ran to form? Was the race truly run? Getting that opinion correct is where money is made.
Report ReaseHeath July 13, 2016 9:33 PM BST
Time Test did n't run in Queen Anne. Swerved Royal Ascot altogether due to the ground.
Report Sandown July 13, 2016 9:39 PM BST
Impossible 123 . Did you make a typo with Hawkbill's rating at 132? His official rating is given as 122 in the RP (up 10 lb) which seems right to me. 132 would be a bit rich, I think.

Figgis. Hawkbill reminds me of Daylami and Azamour, somewhat, both seemed best at 10f but managed to win the KG


brigust1 Welcome back although I too am an infrequent visitor. I have my doubts also  about the value of the Eclipse form but I couldn't say that Hawkbill, who has been very progressive, couldn't improve again and he might well reach a level of form that would be good enough to win the KG in an average year. Like Figgis, I'm not convinced that Postponed has improved but lets see what other opposition there is.
Report Figgis July 13, 2016 9:45 PM BST
If you use Countermeasure as a guide then none did

The old foolproof measure of using one horse as a guide to the whole race Happy


Does Time Test stay? He has won over 10f but as everyone knows if you have optimum conditions and are much superior to the opposition 'class'will help you to stay. Something John Gosden said in the RP. Considering Charlton ran him in the Queen Anne instead of the POW perhaps Charlton is not that sure either.


And considering there's not one piece of form for Time Test over a mile that is better than his 10f form it's nothing more than straw clutching to suggest he doesn't stay.

The position of the pacemaker at the 2 furlong marker would back that up in my opinion.

There are tons of races where pacemakers have stayed in front up to that point without being falsely run. There are fast run races, there are slowly run races and there are those in between which includes most races including the Eclipse, this doesn't equate to falsely run.

Anyway, my point was not about whether Hawkbill won his race by default. I don't think he did, but anybody is entitled to that opinion, it does happen and maybe that'll turn out to be the case here. My point was about the usual tactic of offering nothing pre-race, then slating the quality of a performance post race, saying the horse has no chance in its possible next race without offering a punting opinion on the race in question. Then the old trick of saying if the horse does the opposite of what you've said then it must be the worst race ever. Very tiresome.
Report brigust1 July 13, 2016 10:04 PM BST
Thanks Rease I came over for Ascot and read that RC was preferring the QA to the POW which I was more interested in and so as he wasn't in that I thought he had run in the QA.

Hi Sandown. I could be completely wrong about Hawkbill that's punting for you. If we knew the truth or the future we wouldn't be on this forum I guess.

All true Figgis but I suggest you don't know the answer either. It will only be your opinion and, unlike you, I believe you are entitled to it. And you will see I never picked your opinion apart. Why would anyone do that. It is just an opinion. If you knew everything and were never wrong I guess you wouldn't be on this forum either. But maybe some friendless creatures may still be.

I spend a lot of time out of the country so missed the Eclipse and therefore couldn't offer anything prior to the race but I think you will find this is about the King George not the Eclipse, and the rest of the time I cannot be bothered being abused by the insecure when all I am doing is proffering an opinion. Sometimes I think I will put down my views in the hope that perhaps people do grow up. Then maybe they don't.

At least I am prepared to make my thoughts clear and unambiguous. No sitting on the fence. If I am proved right or wrong then that's punting. It doesn't mean I am anything other than a punter who is prepared to form an opinion and put it forward for others to consider. This is a horse racing forum, isn't it?

You make think it is tiresome Figgis but then, if you do, why did you spend so much time dissecting what I have said in every detail? The two do not go together. It is a forum. It is not only your forum. Do you understand that. Not everyone can match your standards. Now that would be tiresome.
Report Figgis July 13, 2016 10:08 PM BST
Sandown, I backed Daylami in that year's King George, I remember being confident and becoming even more confident after seeing Dettori on tv the day before. I don't normally take too much notice of jockeys but Dettori was buzzing about how well the horse was, which I think can be vital but it's information I'm not usually privy too so I did take notice on this occasion. It seemed like the whole yard were confident of a big performance. I don't remember having any stamina reservations about him so wonder why you consider him better at 10f?

As for Azamour he was a horse I never backed, you may well be right about him as even though I recall him winning the race I can't remember much else about him.
Report ReaseHeath July 13, 2016 10:12 PM BST
In fairness, should have a go at answering the questions as opposed to just correcting you.

The Eclipse was the fastest race on the card in terms of relative time but it should have been as it was a Group 1 whereas the others were a Group 3, two Listed races and the rest handicaps.

According to collateral form for their other races this season and factoring in the weight allowances in those races, My Dreamboat, Western Hymn and Time Test did run pretty much to form - my initial post race reaction was that Time Test was disappointing but on reflection I'd give him another (last!) chance on fast ground because the limited race evidence suggests he's much better for it and his generally level headed trainer is absolutely adamant that he is. My Dreamboat was probably trying to back up quickly enough after the Prince of Wales plus the stable form has dropped off a touch. Western Hymn, well that's probably about as good as he is (perhaps any progress he might have made has been curtailed by the bad attack of colic he had).

I think The Gurkha ran well and was just beaten by an improver who perhaps saw the trip out a little better than him - and maybe was a bit more battle hardened and used to a scrap.

So whilst there are plausible excuses/reasons to suggest My Dreamboat, Time Test and Western Hymn might not have run up to their absolute best, their proximity to each other suggests none of them ran poorly.The pace was adequate. I don't think it was the best renewal of all time but I don't think it was a farce - the winner was/is perhaps a little unfashionable but I can see him continuing to improve and surprise.
Report brigust1 July 13, 2016 10:26 PM BST
Exactly what I thought at first Rease.

When I looked through the race afterwards I thought perhaps that was as good as The Gurkha is and then AOB said that he wasn't going to run him in the Eclipse so soon after the St James Palace Stakes and maybe this was too soon. He also said he thought he may be better over a mile and was dropping him back. Charlton said the ground was obviously against Time Test and was surprised that the pacemaker was so close when he is a furlong behind at home. Clive Cox thought the race cam too soon for My Dreamboat after Ascot and John Gosden said after Western Hymn's previous run that he was applying blinkers and stepping him up to 12f, none of which he did here.
So we have The Gurkha, Time Test, My Dreamboat and Western Hymn not being best served according to their trainers. A fact I think is backed up by the proximity of Countermeasure. I think Hawkbill was 8/1 on the morning of the Eclipse and there is every likelihood he will be a lot shorter should he be supplemented for the King George. Lets hope he is.
Report Figgis July 13, 2016 10:29 PM BST
you will see I never picked your opinion apart.

Preceded by this

I cannot believe you are considering Hawkbill for the KG

At least I am prepared to make my thoughts clear and unambiguous


Well all I've gathered from your post is Hawkbill should not even be considered for the race. He can't possibly finish in the first four. But IF he does then you're still not wrong, it must be the worst race ever.

I think you will find this is about the King George

Yes it's about the KG. Apart from Hawkbill not being good enough to finish in the first four what is your opinion on the race and the betting? If you're so sure he shouldn't finish in the first four then you must have an opinion on the rest? Following your logic before the race then you can't think it to be the worst race ever or you'd give him a chance? If he does finish in the first four then you've already made your mind up that it must the worst KG ever. That would mean you were wrong about at least four horses you thought were better than him? Personally I'd rather own up that I got one horse wrong rather than be so misguided as to overrate four others but each to their own Crazy
Report Figgis July 13, 2016 10:32 PM BST
Meant to say if he wins you've overrated four horses better.
Report brigust1 July 13, 2016 10:39 PM BST
^Knit picking.

My opinion is based on this moment in time. If only two run and he is one of them then that is different. At this moment in time I couldn't have Hawkbill on my mind as things stand. If, as appears, likely he will be a short price for a place then I would consider that a good betting possibility.
Why would I think that? Because I think the Eclipse flatters him hugely and his other form is not great. Of course I will wait until the day but if Bf put up prices of less than evens for a place at any time I may well be dipping into the piggy bank. That is what punting is, isn't it? Looking around for opportunities and going for it.

I will give you a more detail view on the KG nearer the time, if I am around this is just an early marker. It may be all I need.
Report Figgis July 13, 2016 10:42 PM BST
My opinion is based on this moment in time

And at this moment in time (where incidentally Hawkbill is not an intended runner) what is your opinion on the race, runners and betting?
Report Sandown July 13, 2016 10:49 PM BST
Figgis
I thought that AZAMOUR would be as good at 12f but not so confident about Daylami. He was beaten the year before. But, like you, I backed him on the basis of the paddock - he looked v.well,
and the way he went to post. Happy days.
Report brigust1 July 13, 2016 10:52 PM BST
Without knowing the exact runners I am keeping my powder dry. If Hawkbill is supplemented and runs I will be laying. Irrespective, to some extent, of what else runs. The King George last year was a 7 runner affair and the year before an 8 runner affair. At least half of those runners I would rate higher than I rate Hawkbill though only a couple were actually rated higher than he is. On that basis I think they will run him. I think he is over rated and may well be a very false price. Time to lay. We'll see.
Report Figgis July 13, 2016 10:55 PM BST
Sandown, yes you're right he was beaten the year before, I'd forgotten that. I had never backed him in any of his previous wins until that KG. Yes happy days indeed, Godolphin were a force and I'd say unlike those dominating now they were more punter friendly and some nice prices were available to those of us not in the know.
Report Figgis July 13, 2016 10:58 PM BST
If Hawkbill is supplemented and runs I will be laying. Irrespective, to some extent, of what else runs

So from what you've already said you must think even now there are 4 horses who should beat him. I'm guessing the odds on fav will be one, who are the other three?
Report brigust1 July 13, 2016 11:15 PM BST
If they run, they have been entered, then I think Wings of Desire and Erupt both have stronger chances. The vibes around WofD suggest he is held in high esteem and has performed well so far with the form franked. Erupt had Countermeasure miles behind last season and it was a pretty strong Gr1 he was 2nd in the other day. That is a starter but I will wait until nearer the time. As I said before there were only 7 and 8 runners the last two seasons and I certainly don't think Hawkbill would have won either of those, irrespective of his rating.
Report brigust1 July 13, 2016 11:35 PM BST
I've actually had a few quid at 100s on Western Hymn. JG said clearly that he would run him over 12f and Frankie said last season, after he beat Postponed, that he thought he would stay 12f and JG said he would put blinkers on him. He ran no race in the Eclipse so he may turn up here and who knows.
Report impossible123 July 13, 2016 11:37 PM BST
Sandown,

Hawkbill is rated 132 and Wings Of Desire 126 for the Great Voltigeur in the RP, the former having to give the latter 2lbs and Idaho a massive 5lbs. As such there is a fighting chance Hawkbill could run in the King George VII & QE II race - Wings Of Desire carrying 8st 9lbs - where he could be receiving 10lbs from Postponed, I believe.
Report Figgis July 13, 2016 11:41 PM BST
I don't agree about Erupt but it's a fair enough opinion. I do actually agree WoD could give Postponed a race with the wfa if returning to his Dante form, whether he will ever repeat that form I'm not sure so I couldn't say yet if I'd back him. Even well before the race with all intended runners still declared you haven't been able to name four horses that should beat Hawkbill, you've acknowledged the race could cut up further so the point about him not even being considered for the first 4 seems more than a slight overstatement.
Report Figgis July 13, 2016 11:45 PM BST
Impossible123, those are revised ratings adjusted to 10st so it appears the RP have him on 123. The 3yos carry 12lbs less than their elders in the KG.
Report impossible123 July 13, 2016 11:55 PM BST
Figgis, thanks for the info.
Report brigust1 July 13, 2016 11:56 PM BST
I thought I said he wouldn't be placed? I think he is another one of those horses who was in the right place at the right time. Nothing in the race could have won it but something had to. Things were wrong for The Gurkha, wrong for Time Test, wrong for My Dreamboat and wrong for Western Hymn. It happens that way sometimes. A race nothing can win but something has to.
It was the same in Big Oranges race the other day. Exosphere couldn't win it having disappointed, The Grey Gatsby couldn't win it running over a straight 12f, Elite Army couldn't win it after being beaten in a handicap and Second Step couldn't beat the winner on last year's form. I didn't back Big Orange but he did have everything going for him that day even though I didn't think, and he probably wasn't, the best horse in the race.
Report brigust1 July 14, 2016 12:00 AM BST
In the Eclipse Hawkbill had everything he needed. The trip, the going, the position he was in the race and the ride he was given. It is very likely that if Buick had given him anything short of a super ride he wouldn't have won.
Report Figgis July 14, 2016 12:12 AM BST
I thought I said he wouldn't be placed?

So you did, fair enough, my mistake.

A race nothing can win but something has to.

I agree these races happen from time to time. I don't think that was the case with Hawkbill but it's possible and a reasonable stance to take. However, what is not reasonable is to give a dismissive opinion on a horse's chance in a future race compared to the likely opposition but declare beforehand that if the horse does run better than you predicted then you must've been wrong about all his opponents rather than the horse in question.
Report brigust1 July 14, 2016 8:42 AM BST
That is your opinion Figgis and you are entitled to that although I think you are completely wrong. The whole ethos of ante post racing is to form an opinion a long time before a race and, if you feel strongly enough, then you hang your colours to the mast. I don't think Hawkbill will win the KG or be placed, circumstances may make that opinion wrong in fact but that's racing. The horses I think may be better placed to win may, in fact not be better. The horses I think may be better may, in fact not turn up. That's punting. Sometimes I get it completely correct and sometimes disastrously wrong. Like everyone I guess. I shouldn't be pilloried for that or have my post dissected mercilessly. It is just an honest opinion.

I seem to remember agreeing with you, in the heat of strong opposition from others, that it would be highly unlikely that War Command would win another Group 1 race. Circumstances may have made that opinion wrong in fact but that would not necessarily have made that opinion wrong. It is just an opinion.
Report Figgis July 14, 2016 12:45 PM BST
That is your opinion Figgis and you are entitled to that although I think you are completely wrong

Wrong about what exactly?
Report Figgis July 14, 2016 1:01 PM BST

I cannot believe you are considering Hawkbill for the KG. His form is awful and surely this would be the worst KG ever if he were even placed


I shouldn't be pilloried

You jumped in saying my opinion of Hawkbill was unbelievable, awful form etc. Fair enough. I said I think your statement of saying he has no chance BUT at the same time if he does do what you say you he can't then you were still right about him but wrong about the opposition is twaddle. So stop playing the whining victim, it cuts no ice with me, it's hypocritical and pathetic. I've said before if you don't like my responses to you then don't comment on any of my opinions, simple really.
Report only1mill July 14, 2016 1:58 PM BST
Can't you 2 just pm each other, was a good read
Report Figgis July 14, 2016 2:14 PM BST
It's just a thread on a betting site that hadn't been posted on for a week about a race run nearly 2 weeks ago, not a literary classic.
Report brigust1 July 14, 2016 2:15 PM BST
Grow up Figgis ffs. You are acting like spoilt schoolboy. I proffered an opinion about a horse race on a horse racing forum. Woe is me. No wonder these forums are desert islands. I haven't been on this forum for ages yet nothing changes. I spend the best part of 24 hours answering questions about why I think a horse will not win a race ffs.
Of course the questions, if you want to call them that, all come from the same source, so nothing new there.

I came over for a couple of days for Newbury races not to waste my time debating, if you want to call it that, with someone with an infantile attitude.

I PROFFERED MY OPINION ABOUT A HORSE RACE FFS. That's all. I never committed treason or treachery. 

When I see a horse win a race and I think it may be over rated as a result I see that as an opportunity to lay next time because its price may be shorter than it should be. Sometimes I am right and sometimes I am wrong.

When I see a horse meeting in a race and finishing down the field when it should have gone close (Spark Plug in the Royal Hunt Cup comes to mind) then I want to be backing it under similar circumstances next time because it may be a bigger price than it should be.

I thought Hawkbill won the Eclipse by default and therefore may be a shorter price next time than it should be.  That is all ffs.
In less than a couple of weeks I may be better off or I may be worse off. That's punting.

Will I come back on this forum again? It's a great pity imo.
Report brigust1 July 14, 2016 2:16 PM BST
*trouble
Report Figgis July 14, 2016 2:25 PM BST
I thought Hawkbill won the Eclipse by default and therefore may be a shorter price next time than it should be

No you didn't, that only came after you were pushed on the subject. You said you couldn't believe Hawkbill was even being consideration for the KG, his form was too awful to be placed, regardless of the price. Yet if he did actually win it must be the worst KG ever. A world of difference.
Report Figgis July 14, 2016 2:25 PM BST
*considered
Report brigust1 July 14, 2016 2:36 PM BST
Hi guys. Just passing through for Newbury races.

I cannot believe you are considering Hawkbill for the KG. His form is awful and surely this would be the worst KG ever if he were even placed. In the Eclipse he beat 2 non stayers who hated the ground and a pacemaker (not by far) who had previously been a distance behind Erupt. The race was falsely run on ground only he managed and from a forward position required to win. His previous form is also dreadful beating Prize Money well beaten since. Occasionally a Group 3 horse will pick up a Group 1 by circumstance alone and my guess is the Eclipse was one of those.

That is what I wrote Figgis pointing out clearly why I think he won by default not your mangled, twisted version. You should be ashamed of yourself Figgis, it does not become you.
Report Figgis July 14, 2016 2:50 PM BST
I cannot believe you are considering Hawkbill for the KG. His form is awful and surely this would be the worst KG ever if he were even placed.

Exactly. No mention of Hawkbill's chance relative to his price. You don't just think the horse was flattered by his win, you can't believe he is even being considered as his form is so awful even to place. No mention whatsoever of his opponents as things stand, yet surely if you think he warrants no consideration of even being placed you must've already formed an opinion that it can't be the worst KG ever as things stand. So to say if he's placed as things stand it must be the worst KG ever is, as I said, utter twaddle. Just so you can take some perverse satisfaction in holding on to the claim that you were still right about Hawkbill but wrong about all those you thought better than him Grin
Report brigust1 July 14, 2016 4:18 PM BST
What utter rubbish. Why am I wasting my time?

There is no price on here to lay so I cannot comment on his price. I don't know exactly what will be running so neither you nor I know whether the race is of good quality or not. With or without Hawkbill.
I believe if the race is of better than average quality Hawkbill will not win or even be placed. If, however, the race collapses to one of less than average quality things may be different. That is what ante post racing is all about.

You are so interested in disseminating my views you are missing the whole point about ante post racing. There is a lot of calculated guesswork involved.

I have been  drawn into a pointless debate about a view on a horse in a horse race.

I won't change my view and I guess if the horse is supplemented that on the day a lot of the racing press will say exactly what I have said in that the Eclipse was a bit of a farce and unreliable guide to the result of the King George and if he runs I will be laying him. Win and place. So I hope he is supplemented soon because sadly I will not be in the country at the time.

That is all I have to say on the matter. I have wasted far too much time unnecessarily while in the company of good friends and it really isn't worth it.
Report Figgis July 14, 2016 4:35 PM BST
I don't know exactly what will be running so neither you nor I know whether the race is of good quality or not

So in view of that to say a horse hasn't got a believable chance of getting placed is just hyperbolic claptrap.

If, however, the race collapses

We were talking about the race as it stands and that the runners you had to be pressed to come up with remain in the race, not some hypothetical 2 horse race ifs and buts nonsense that you mentioned afterwards.

That is all I have to say on the matter

What a shame, ah well, I suppose I'll get over it Wink
Report harry callaghan July 14, 2016 4:49 PM BST
quite funny all this, you never said what price you were prepared to lay hawkbill at brigust, just so we can dot the I's and cross the T's
Report brigust1 July 14, 2016 6:17 PM BST
I suggest you read the thread HH.

As it stands if Hawkbill was available at 7/1 today I would lay him. If he was available at 6/4 for a place today I would lay him. But that is not what is available so such a comment is meaningless. If he was available at Evens or less today I would be laying the c r a p out of him, but that comment is meaningless because he isn't. That is why I haven't given a price because Figgis and others would just say it is meaningless because no price is available. Dot the I's and cross the T's out of that one if you like. 

Of course they don't say what price they would back him at either do they? Just destructive cretins, not productive.

Like you I will decide when he is declared to run and what the opposition is at that time. Dot the I's and cross the T's on that one if you like.

Or on the other hand perhaps you could tell me what price you would back him or lay him at? Or would that constitute a proper debate?

What a shame, ah well, I suppose I'll get over it Wink No you won't Figgis. I've been here before with you. You write reams and reams of meaningless drivel. Nothing constructive, only destructive. Nothing changes, just more of the same.
Report Figgis July 14, 2016 6:34 PM BST
Back already brigust? I do like a man of his word Laugh

Of course they don't say what price they would back him at either do they?

He's quoted at 5s with a run, I'd back him at that price and it's highly doubtful he'll start much shorter than that. It's pretty obvious from how I rated him that I'd back him at the likely price available, assuming they supplement him which doesn't look probable at this stage.

if Hawkbill was available at 7/1 today I would lay him. If he was available at 6/4 for a place today I would lay him. But that is not what is available so such a comment is meaningless.

As he's only available at that price without a guaranteed run it's pretty unlikely he'll be that price if supplemented. So your whole argument is 'meaningless' really. Wink
Report Figgis July 14, 2016 6:36 PM BST
The question should be what price would you lay him at if he's supplemented and the three horses you've mentioned that should beat him, Postponed, Wings of Desire and Erupt all run?
Report brigust1 July 14, 2016 6:58 PM BST
Got there. It took sometime but got there. Of course saying you would back him at 5's with a run and he is available at 5's with a run is also meaningless unless you do actually stand by your word and back him. What's to lose?
If have already said I would lay him at 7/1 at this moment in time not knowing who runs. And I have said that I have been pressed to give a price yet when I do it then it will be called meaningless. And that is exactly what happened. Because it is meaningless.
If the 3 horses you quoted run then he will not be 7/1 more like 10s imo. Do I lay horses at 10s or more. No.
Report Figgis July 14, 2016 7:08 PM BST
Of course saying you would back him at 5's with a run and he is available at 5's with a run is also meaningless


Only in your world could that statement be meaningless. He's 5s with a run, if he's available at that price if supplemented I back him. Only a complete idiot could misconstrue what has been said.

If have already said I would lay him at 7/1 at this moment in time not knowing who runs.


Laying him now at 7s means laying a horse who at this moment in time is not an intended runner, a totally different scenario.

If the 3 horses you quoted run then he will not be 7/1 more like 10s imo. Do I lay horses at 10s or more. No.

If you think he would start anything like 10/1 if supplemented then I can quite understand why you don't lay 10/1 shots, you're clueless Wink
Report brigust1 July 14, 2016 7:16 PM BST
I think a complete fool made the statement. You have a guaranteed price you are happy with and no risk if he doesn't run. Clueless that is, absolutely clueless.

And to confirm how clueless you are you criticise my not laying horses at 10s and more when you can, more often than not, make more money backing the horses you think will beat him. Clueless.

And you clearly do not understand ante post betting because the possibility of non runners are included in the price. Totally clueless.

You said you would back him at 5's with no risk if a non runner in an ante post field where you can only benefit if others don't run and you don't see the advantage of that? Clueless.
Report brigust1 July 14, 2016 7:18 PM BST
I think we can all dot the I's and cross the T's on that one.Wink
Report Figgis July 14, 2016 7:27 PM BST
You have a guaranteed price you are happy with and no risk if he doesn't run

I said it was an acceptable price to me, meaning I would be prepared back him at such a price. That does not mean I am going to tie up some cash now on a horse that is not an intended runner just in order to take an acceptable price, when the chances are that even if he is supplemented I will probably get no worse than the same price and maybe even better if I shop around. Now read that and think about it before you type some more inane blatherings.
Report brigust1 July 14, 2016 7:55 PM BST
WinkWink I know what you mean. I could waste more of my time pointing why that statement is clueless but hey ho. I will definitely now leave you to it. I's dotted and T's crossed. It wasn't short, it wasn't sweet but it was just as I had expected.
Report Figgis July 14, 2016 8:04 PM BST
Love
Report harry callaghan July 14, 2016 10:57 PM BST
Or on the other hand perhaps you could tell me what price you would back him or lay him at? Or would that constitute a proper debate?


not really my thing laying 5/1 shots brigust and personally i haven't even priced the race up yet, i do feel i want to get postponed if that helps but will wait until nearer the day to play...i do feel highland reel is a bit doggy but he hasn't had his ground so far this season...i will be interested in the stoute horse if it runs i thought he put up a low grade group 1 performance at chester and think he may improve for that run, he looks like he could be a big improver in my book but i have never rated him that highly

like a lot of group 1's to be run this season we really are scraping the barrel in regards class, the 3 year olds are a slow bunch but i still haven't got a solid opinion on hawkbill who appears to idle in his races which is making him hard to peg down in my book anyway
Report harry callaghan July 14, 2016 11:06 PM BST
not even entered the stoute horseGrin...is he injured cannock chase? haven't even looked at the race for a while but thought he was entered
Report brigust1 July 15, 2016 6:38 AM BST
Good morning H. Not sure about Cannock Chase. I don't often lay horses at bigger prices either because you may be able to make more by backing one or two you think might beat them. As you say some of the Group 1's have been a bit below standard. I thought the Japanese horse in the POW was not a worthy favourite. It won in France where I thought it was completely flattered as the only fit horse among the top rated ones with excuses offered for most of the others because it was their first run etc. Sadly I thought backing Found at 4s was a far better bet than laying the short priced favourite so I was right in one respect but wrong in the end. Where My Dreamboat got that run from I have no idea. Be good.
Report brigust1 July 15, 2016 6:42 AM BST
To avoid confusion I know it was the Japanese horses first run in the French race but his connections said afterwards that he was fully wound up for the race unlike most of the opposition.
Report impossible123 July 15, 2016 10:03 AM BST
In a nutshell I think most of us had agreed that this year's Eclipse was far from a vintage one; the 'fav' on the day, The Gurkha, who'd won impressively in France over 8f had not raced beyond 8f prior, and was outstayed, in my opinion, by Hawkbill, who'd won over 10f despite The Gurkha taking it up 1f out.

Regards Cannock Chase, Bruce Raymind, racing manager to his owner said: "Cannock Chase has go a small injury and will be out for a little while. He will definitely miss the Eclipse. Hopefully, he will be back later in the year."
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