Horse Antepost
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Why am I supposed to hold back at 2/1 Prince of Wales ?
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jet lag?
 Other than it handles any ground apparently and some fella had a 1k on it in PPs the other day. |
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It just looks unreal ... apparently being a bit difficult held it back at first, but if it has it's mind on the job now ... !?
Hong Kong was no fluke either, Free Eagle tried to go with him and went out like a light ... And the trainer was surprised the headstrong horse actually took a lead in Fra - obv it was to his benefit as he put a distance between him and the field. Could be extremely special, even just to watch, (but better to win!) |
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He did look incredible last time in France and very good the time before in Hong Kong.
Perhaps the only scenario that would be a worry is that he has only run on flat tracks and if he leads or kicks for home too soon at Ascot he might get found out by the stiff finish - bit like when the mighty Frankel nearly got beat in the St James Palace. Hopefully his run in Frnace gives them the confidence to hold on to him a bit and only kick once into the straight. |
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Is this the banker at Royal Ascot then? A few racing journalists and tv pundits are not convinced it is a good thing certainly not a 2/1 antepost shot. But he did crucify a good field in France last time and run away with the Hong Kong Cup last year.
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Perhaps in a normal year for the POW I'd agree with unclepuncle about Ascot not playing to his strengths, but this renewal, like last year's, underlines the worrying dearth of top class ten furlong older horses in training. I still don't see where Time Test has put up a genuine group 1 class performance over 10 furlongs although I accept (after opposing him at Sandown) he's probably capable of one. Can Gatsby run up to his best first time out? I'd expect his best to be pretty much equal to or better than anything Time Test is likely to put up. Who else is there?
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Roger Charlton, who's opinion I value highly, said that TT was going to the POW and that he expected him to be good, but that this year it looked like he'd need to be very good.
I don't read journalists except to get trainers' comments |
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The more I'm looking at it the more I'm thinking if there's a potential superstar in the race it's Cannock Chase.
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A Shin Hikari looked the real deal in France visually to me, although I am bit worried about his Jockey at Ascot, I can see Yutaka Take let him go in the straight and pulverising this lot and winning going further and further away.
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Still 2/1 with Sportsbook but much shorter with some. Let's hope he reproduces his Chantilly and Hong Kong Gold Cup form - I'm in at 5/2 and 2/1.
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If it lines up it might start 8/11 fav . Regarding the last romp, I just hope it hasn't peaked too soon.
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This animal runs like Frankel ie out and gone!
The anticipated inclement weather does not hinder either. |
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I expect Covert Love to run a very good race. Bar the fav the rest are much the same and she's improved over the winter. I'm in ew already but hoping the rain doesn't ruin her chances
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Backed it.
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this looks a rank below par field..........time test, found, the grey gatsby.............the japanese horse should destroy them
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20mm of rain drenched Ascot racecourse yesterday; if it continues as expected over the weekend he'll go off odds-on no doubt as Time Test is not suited to soft going at all (might not even run), and some bookies have already taken cover by going 10/11 on this Japanese jolly.
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Covert Love won't run with soft in the going so seems my money is done!
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Only nine are declared for the POW.
These three are the next best in the betting after A Shin Hikari (ASH) ie Time Test (TT), The Grey Gatsby (TGG) and Found (F); if ground is soft or worse TT is unlikely to run using the recent Irish withdrawal as a guide, TGG goes far better on good/firm ground, F is best on good but not soft ground and I also believe Covert Love will not run if the going is softer than good, according to her trainer. At least one and possibly two, if not more, could be withdrawn if ground is soft or worse. And with only a probable of seven runners with the majority disliking softish ground condition except (ASH) ASH looks increasingly likely to start odds-on if the drenching persists into early next week. |
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If he turns up like he did in HK he'll win for sure. I'm only backing him to get my CL money back
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Agree with impossible - I suppose one or two might take their chance because they need a run and/or because the place prize money is decent but this now has the potential to cut up to embarrassing proportions.
Adding to his 15.39 post today, The Grey Gatsby was pulled out of the Tattersalls Gold Cup due to the rain softened ground last month and Found has been beaten twice recently on ground slower than ideal plus she's already run 4 times this turf season. In addition to that all Highland Reel's winning form is on Good, Good to Firm and Firm - and the 5yo Tryster has never run on ground slower than Good on the turf. Logically, it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that there are just three runners - A Shin Hikari, Western Hymn and My Dream Boat.  |
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might give this race a miss...fine horse...might well hack up...but a total goofball on board.
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Found was meant to be taking a break - she's been way off her form - so looks an afterthought given the weather, Highland Reel I think takes a cut, but that's it, he's obv best on Fast (Secretariat, HK Vase) - he ran ok in the Irish Champion which was just on the G/S side
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Found gets better as the season goes on and if she runs then 6/1 e/w is like taking candy off a baby.
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IF.
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It seems the connections of A Shin Hikari (ASH) like to talk down his potentials. Now his trainer is saying he does not want to see too much rain as ASH is a speed horse and he'd rather have good ground over soft despite ASH pulverised his opponents on very soft ground in the Prix d'Ispahan and soft ground here will hinder his main protagonists. However, his trainer has no worries about his stamina to stay the trip.
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Covert Love injured and won't run again
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Commiseration with Covert Love, hope a happy retirement for her if so.
A Shin Hikari is odds-on with most bookies apart from two, and 4/6 only with Paddies. |
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HKAccie- Top class information there mate on Covert Love and well in advance of anywhere else over here.
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Welcome Madhu - such a shame as they expected so much more from her at 4 as she'd shown a lot of improvement over the winter
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Is he beatable? --- Found who does take a cut, and even proper soft ground wouldn't affect her - but can she be as effective with her form in such a slump! ...
I've been a huge follower of Found, to my obvious expense and lots of near misses, but I have to say my unbiased opinion is that she isn't the mare this season as she was at the end of last, not even close. Beaten 4L by Fascinating Rock when well talked up and 8/15f, that's solidly poor form, then the run of the race may not have suited in the Coronation but for a Mare who is to be up there with Postponed, beating Golden Horn etc.. she was left very dead. So, on the progression, the ratings, the hammering he dished out in HK and Prix d'Ispahan (to New Bay, Erupt, Dariyan just off Ganay win etc., ) ... Surely there's only one horse coming here in form, and his level atm is way, way above Found. So, it's not so much about the brilliance of the Japanese horse, but the quality of Found - as I said a favourite of mine - but I wouldn't back her in another field either. |
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Is there a betting on the winning distance notwithstanding Found is my nemesis? She stuffed me in the American race.
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I don't believe Found has ever really run well enough to beat a top class colt on form. I know she ran well in the Irish Champion Stakes but it wasn't run at a great pace. She also beat Golden Horn in America but it was obviously a well below par GH that day, it was quite a bunched finish and those behind were no great shakes. As yet it doesn't look like she's improved from 3 to 4 but even if she improves here I don't see her being good enough. The Grey Gatsby didn't go on from 3 to 4 and it's unlikely he'll develop into a proper Gp1 animal at 5.
On the face of it A Shin Hikari put up an extraordinary performance on his latest start. It was a mixed card with some races run on synthetics so not the best to get a handle on the times but even erring on the conservative side it looks a proper Gp1 time performance. I wouldn't go as far as to suggest he's in the superstar bracket as some have claimed but he looks a proper Gp1 horse, the rest don't in my view. |
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The defeat of Golden Horn (GH) in America (tempted by colossal prize money) could be down to a long season season and wet conditions on race day, I think.
Despite A Shin Hikari's (ASH) current price and optimism by most pundits I've laid off 1/2 of my probable winnings from taking 5/2 and 2/1 antepost with my nemesis in the race, and because this is ASH's 1st run here. I hope he wins. By the way, connections of the Grey Gatsby (TGG) had indicated he'd could be withdrawn if the ground was soft on race day. |
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A Shin went off like the clappers in Hong Kong,much too fast....it just had to weaken..but it kept finding,very impressive.Today will be A Shin's first race on a proper stiff track with holding going.It has to settle and get the pace correct,could be an oxygen mask job final furlong.
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The price is solely on whether he stays Ascot's stiff 10f.
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how can people still put money on that clown of a jockey...white muzzle, zenno rob roy, deep impact now A shin hikari....the man is a legend.
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Expecting so much but the end result was nothing but a damp squib. Very disappointing, and a complete reversal of what Lady Aurelia achieved earlier. The bookies live again!
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Jesus, he went out like a light ! ... Why he didn't take a lead I don't know, TGG looked keen at the start and I was hoping Take would take a tug and slot in ... ffs
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Cannot agree more. It's too bad to be true....another Air Force Blue dilemma,....to back or not to back next time.
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