Horse Antepost
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Its been a while since I backed the winner of this - shameful really as Ive done well in the big handicap sprints over the years but Dark Missile in 2007 was my last winner so think Im due a change of luck.
I think the main thing about this race is how its changed in nature recently., particularly in the past few years, in that the majority of runners are now rated at least 100 (23 of the 28 in 2014 and 19 of the 25 last year), which is going to make redundant any stats that may get thrown about regarding the race. I think this is partially to blame due to the scrapping of the Buckingham Palace 7f handicap which I loved and hope that someday it is returned.
The bottom line is that its going to be hard for a lightly raced, lightly weighted type to get in and therefore the majority are going to have run to a high level of form already.
With this in mind Im going to take a chance on the ever improving Buckstay at 22-1.
Granted he is now rated 109 after another belting run in the Victoria Cup and he is also entered in the Hunt Cup but given that he holds a July Cup entry Im guessing they think they have a serious sprinter on their hands. Also you have to go beyond the 47th entry Huntsmans Close to a horse rated less than 100 which means this could be a very compressed handicap where giving weight away wont be such an issue as in the past.
He hardly ran a bad race last year, particularly after the application of pieces, seems to love this straight course at Ascot, travels supremely well through a race and is a match made in heaven for a jockey like Spencer. I dont think he is harshly treated either given he has only gone up 12 pounds for winning 2 competitive 7f handicaps and an unlucky in running 5th in the Ayr Gold Cup and 3rd in the Victoria Cup since the pieces went on.
There are dangers of course and horses that have good handicap form but that have been plying their trade in group and listed company - Naadirr and Toscannini for instance - could find themselves with a chance.
Outback Traveller was originally the one i took out of the Victoria Cup but it would appear so have the bookies and punters and 12-1 is no value now, possibly not even on the day so Im siding with Buckstay for the moment and will play again nearer the day.
I think the main thing about this race is how its changed in nature recently., particularly in the past few years, in that the majority of runners are now rated at least 100 (23 of the 28 in 2014 and 19 of the 25 last year), which is going to make redundant any stats that may get thrown about regarding the race. I think this is partially to blame due to the scrapping of the Buckingham Palace 7f handicap which I loved and hope that someday it is returned.
The bottom line is that its going to be hard for a lightly raced, lightly weighted type to get in and therefore the majority are going to have run to a high level of form already.
With this in mind Im going to take a chance on the ever improving Buckstay at 22-1.
Granted he is now rated 109 after another belting run in the Victoria Cup and he is also entered in the Hunt Cup but given that he holds a July Cup entry Im guessing they think they have a serious sprinter on their hands. Also you have to go beyond the 47th entry Huntsmans Close to a horse rated less than 100 which means this could be a very compressed handicap where giving weight away wont be such an issue as in the past.
He hardly ran a bad race last year, particularly after the application of pieces, seems to love this straight course at Ascot, travels supremely well through a race and is a match made in heaven for a jockey like Spencer. I dont think he is harshly treated either given he has only gone up 12 pounds for winning 2 competitive 7f handicaps and an unlucky in running 5th in the Ayr Gold Cup and 3rd in the Victoria Cup since the pieces went on.
There are dangers of course and horses that have good handicap form but that have been plying their trade in group and listed company - Naadirr and Toscannini for instance - could find themselves with a chance.
Outback Traveller was originally the one i took out of the Victoria Cup but it would appear so have the bookies and punters and 12-1 is no value now, possibly not even on the day so Im siding with Buckstay for the moment and will play again nearer the day.
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Difficult race to analyse still, given the uncertainty with the ground.
No-one jocked up for Buckstay in the Hunt Cup and Spencers name is down against 2 other horses so its looking at this stage he is going for the Wokingham but I think it would need good ground at worst so still keeping my powder dry with that one. Also hard to second guess what rating will slip in at the bottom but Im keeping half an eye on Golden Steps even though he is up against it being 53rd at the mo. Could be decent e/w value at 33-1. |
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divine and ninjago are two
im looking at but would like to be surer of a run first. |
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Will wait until final decs as with all the rain there may be a massive draw bias.
Toxanini woukd be my pick at the moment @ 25/1 |
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For me JACK DEXTER is surely worth a play at 40/1 ... will have ground conditions he will love - down the weights 9st-3... and only needs a low draw to halve the price...
He was top sprinter few years back and remember last year in King Stand he was under 3 lengths behind Goldream and it was good to firm. Soft conditions suit this horse. For me its a each way stand out bet. Good Luck. |
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Two to back :-
Flash Fire Mr Lupton ( hoping he gets a run ) Will bet Buckstay if the reserve doesn't get in |
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With the ground drying out ive gone in again on Buckstay at 20-1.
Main concern is the draw in 1 as he could get stuck behind a wall of horses and have to come all the way round. However, if theres one jockey who you want on your side in that situation it has to be Frank. |
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Agreed
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will stick with NINJAGO,and have a
saver on INTERSEPTION who is in foal and can sometimes bring about improvement. good luck everyone |
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at 20s and 16s
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brutal race to fathom and am hoping the draw bias may turn so have taken burnt sugar to step up, just have a feeling his come back run was better than the bare form and at 33's he may just outrun that price, i also quite like interception but just have a feeling the handicapper may have her unless being in foal helps, she is no mug though, the ground will help buckstay as i wouldn't of thought 6f is what he wants although he does travel well...anyway just burnt sugar for me
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You gotta laugh.
Outback Traveller was originally the one i took out of the Victoria Cup but it would appear so have the bookies and punters and 12-1 is no value now, possibly not even on the day so Im siding with Buckstay for the moment and will play again nearer the day. Oh well |
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Bad luck. I've found ( over the years) that at double odds prices, it's often profitable to back more than one( win only) in these big handicaps..
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betilyerded-
Hard luck mate- know how you feel after Portage in the RHC. Onward and upwards. |
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If you fancy them enough to be mad at yourself if they were to win, then back them !
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Facts - The funny thing is, I often do back a couple in the the big sprint handicaps but just got a bit blinkered in the end.
Madhu - I re-read your Cambridgeshire post from last season the other day. What a sickener, particularly My Dream Boat going on to achieve what he did last week. The Cambridgeshire can often through up group horses of the future, its spotting them thats the hard part! |
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betilyerded-
I would of won a couple of large ones if any of my arrows landed the Cambridgeshire and I believe I mentioned that I was only put off Third Time Lucky as he had not won a Class 2 handicap prior to the race. Third Time Lucky must have a real chance for Mr Fahey in the Magnet Cup and looking at the entries there are quite a few fancied runners who have no chance of getting in. From what I have read he was behind early on and has since been showing more speed as his entry in the Bunbury Cup shows, but I think he is more likely for York. He will be half the odds(20/1 now) come the day. Outback Traveller might be running over 5f next, which could be interesting. I really like the 2nd Brando also. Facts- I usually throw multiple arrows but on this occasion........ |
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Bad luck. It's a sickener, when a horse you really fancy wins, but for whatever reason your money wasn't down.
We've all done it ! |