St Leger - 2016

Harzand has always struck me a St Leger type.

If Harzand runs in the Irish Derby and wins he'd be unlikely to run here similarly with UAR but both are unlikely to be aimed at the 'Arc' - only one I think - instead Minding could be if UAR is beaten in the Irish Derby. However, should UAR beat Harzand then I reckon Minding will not run in the Irish Oaks let alone the 'Arc' but probably The Eclipse over 10f as I believe that is Minding's best trip despite winning the Epsom Oaks.

In a nutshell, the victor of the Irish Derby will not run in the English Leger; if the victor is UAR then Minding will be an unlikely runner in the Irish Oaks nor the 'Arc' but instead The Eclipse as AOB could call on Order Of St George and Found I believe.

Only one of interest is Idaho, the rest do not look good eneough.

Cheers LUFC.

had a bit of a knee jerk reaction(usually ends badly) after saturdays irish derby and took some of the 7-1 idaho.

betting 10 weeks before the race will put you in the poor house but cannot see what the opposition is going to be.

will be very surprised if harzand or UAR turn up and the majority of the rest in the betting look average.

if he turns up and wins something like the great voltigeur can see him going off pretty short for the ledger,bit of a boost today with AOB stating that he will be a better horse over a longer trip.

just hope he stays sound.

If Idaho runs he's an excellent chance on his two Derby form; I cannot see Harzand and/or UAR running here with the 'Arc' just three weeks away being their main target. Neither will Idaho be dropped in trip as he does not have the pace to win at 8f or 10f, I'm fairly certain.

Sword Fighter
He will get every yard, and is genuine.

I think it's fair to say this race is on the agenda for Idaho beaten twice in two Classics by Harzand, the winner in both; Idaho has been taken out of the King George VI and QE II today and his next entry is the Great Voltigeur Stakes on 17th Aug, an ideal 3 weeks to The Leger. And post winning t,he Great Voltigeur Idaho will be less than 3/1 for this race I'd imagine.

Sword Fighter, all things being equal, will run here as well.

AOB should run Minding in this & try and make history with 1st Triple Crown winner since Oh So Sharp in 1985. Would be a great story and a major boost to the oldest Classic

I like Muntahaa

AOB will not run Minding against the colts until the 'Arc' otherwise the King George VI & QEII on 23rd July would be ideal intro. This race is not even in the consideration for neither USAR nor Harzand with the 'Arc'just 3 weeks away.

Red Verdon, still full of running at the end of the Irish Derby, and maybe one out of the King Edward at Royal Ascot, that is usually a good pointer for the St Leger.

Harzand and Minding have not been entered and no doubt both be aimed at the 'Arc', and neither has Hawkbill but there is a supplementary on 5th Sept should connections have a change of heart. However, the intriguing entry from AOB are Even Song - disappointing 'fav' in the Irish Oaks - and Bhutan, a winner over Housesofparliament in April but has not been seen since. What's happened to Bhutan? Nursing an injury or something else?

i still like us army ranger for this . hes had the summer break and will take in a prep race . then the target will be either the irish champion stakes or the st leger on the same day 10th september . so clearly the horse will be primed for this day , as to where he goes will be based on the going imo . i would imagine he will get better ground at donny so i think his antepost price is big as although preference will be for the champion if thats soft or worse and donny is better ground theyll go leger then breeders cup turf i think

gpz6316

I'd like to see USAR running here but I've serious doubt given the proximity of this race and the 'Arc', his main target I firmly believe; I could not see him running in the Irish Champion either with the race being 10f - he needs at least 10f+ - but Minding is a possible, I hope. Also, I do not believe USAR will stay 16f either otherwise he'd have galloped away in the Chester Vase when challenged by Port Douglas or outstayed by Harzand in the Epsom Derby.

123 . i dont think a . o,b has targetted this race over the last few years . or ever at all,  hes only won it once with dylan thomas . i think he will send over a decent rep ie found but i doubt it will be a serious challenge . surely he would have freshened up a top colt with a summer break etc in the past . we,re now talking about one that does look high class that could be fresh and he could just aim him there . i dont think he will though as hes  got no outs (alternative races ) if it comes up soft for peaking him . hes not gonna bottom him to try and win the arc and fok up breeders cup imo so irish champion or st leger is where it must be . to sum up you think hes prepped for arc and i disagree . opinions , opinions , i think im right but will be happy to say well done and mean it if im wrong

Sword Fighter for me at this stage, similar profile to AOB's last winner of the race Leading Light and out of his 16 entries strikes me as the one most likely to turn up.

On his form, you'd think he might swerve it on fast ground but chances of that should be dimishing by mid Sept.

this race being the arc ( reference your comments )not the st leger as of the thread

he was very green at chester a baby they said and had less runs than fingers on one  hand .so i dont buy into the fact he wont stay . a 3yo colt is a whole different animal in terms of strengthening up and learning how to race in september

Idaho and/or USAR could have been entered in this saturday's King George but did not hence I hope this is the race AOB has in mind for Idaho along with another 3/4 stablemates but not the well bred, USAR. However, USAR has been entered for the Ballyroan Stakes at Leopardstown on 4th Aug but not Idaho who is in the Great Voltigeur at Goodwood next month, usually the prep race for the St Leger; I also believe USAR do not stay 14f either.

As for the Irish Champion Stakes I believe Minding will follow the path of Found last year and use that as a prep race at Leopardstown on 10th Sept prior to the 'Arc'.

ref reaseheath and swordfighter , he has a great looking profile and i wouldnt put you off him . at every stage through the season top trainers see horses come to themselves and exude wellbeing . come september if your fella looks in rude health he could well be the numero uno for this race in their yard  but nobody knows. thats why were guessing to try to get a bigger price than available on the day . i got 16-1 on a fresh horse that came second in the derby and im happy with it . you pays your money and you take your chance . and good luck to ya .

I think we can all agree Sword Fighter is a near certainty to be amongst AOB's contigent for this race as he'd won over the distance and more - he's also in the Great Voltigeur next month.

I'd expected Bhutan, not seen since victorious in April, to be not in today's declaration but he's not. What's happened to him since April? Anyone's any idea?

not sure why you think a 1 race runner and winner is a suitable candidate for a st leger . they couldnt get a race into him as a 2yo and didnt fancy him but ran him anyhows and he won . the signs are the horse is not sound by a long chalk

If you are referring to Bhutan I believe he was reported having a setback some time ago hence, I'd expected him to be scratched today. But he was not, and he did beat Housesofparliament who won at Ascot last week, easily.

ya 123 im going sleep now but 1 race ? plus anything they can get into him pre september . my opinion is that hes not sound and wouldnt be able to give its best.be that on firm ground (legs ) or soft ground (breathing )

Wings Of Desire ran a very good race in the King George & QE Stakes however, he looked to have come to the end of his tether despite the slow steady pace dictated by Moore on Highland Reel very similar to the impression he gave me in the Epsom Derby. Be interesting if he takes his place in the Great Voltigeur, giving 3lbs to Idaho.

Despite the manager of the owner of Wings Of Desire (WOD) - who was 2nd in the King George & QE Stakes - stating they might consider the Juddmonte or the Prix Niel - both 10f races - WOD had been backed into favouritism with 'Laddies' for the St Leger.

ya well its cos theres a lack of class at the highest level . wod has done his running and i very much doubt he can win a st leger . imo if us a r with a mid season break heads there then breeders.cup i think w.o.d could be 30 lb behind at that point in the season .

you simply cant go on and on ,wings isnt improving . im not saying us army ranger will win it as your far more knowledgable  than me with intentions . i think that i had a read where the gurkha would run  common sense . i was right got 16-1 about a odds on loser . and i see usar coming to doncaster . then breeders cup , they wont bottom  him in ireland or champion stakes . for me he goes st leger . breeders cup and not the arc .its just my opinion

gpz6315

USAR is heading for the Juddmonte and has been backed to near favouritism; in my opinion this is why he's drifted to 20/1 for the 'Arc' unlike Minding who's been backed into 5/1 here. As such USAR is very highly unlikely to be campaigned over 14f ('Arc') now with AOB having Found, Order Of St George and Minding), certainly not the Leger; USAR has an engagement in the Great Voltigeur as well (same day as the Juddmonte) but unlikely to take his place given AOB stating he's being aimed at the Juddmonte.

Regards Wings Of Desire, despite what connections have stated and betting market, I find it difficult to see him run in the Leger because I think he does not stay before 10f+ as demonstrated in the Derby and King George & QE Stakes. As always horse racing is mainly about opinions and as such can differ greatly amongst racing participants.

Idaho was given a tender ride to win the Great Voltigeur today obviously with this race in mind; he is best price at 2/1, but could start odds-on again on race day if the race cuts up like it did today.

im sticking with us army ranger . i know the intention is to run in ireland on that day , but , if the ground comes up heavy there im sure hell be rerouted as hes entered in the leger also suggesting its an out given unsuitable  ground in ireland . if so he has a favourites chance and is available at 20 plus to one

gpz613

I hope USAR runs for you however, I think 'Coolmore' will want Idaho - rested with this race in mind since the Irish Derby - to win a Gp1 race ie The Leger, to enhance his stallion fee. With The Gurkha on the sideline and possibly career ending due to an injury, USAR, if successful convincingly on sunday's Royal Whip, might take up the mantle of The Gurkha and do battle over 10f leaving Minding, Found and Order Of St George free for the 'Arc'.

I think if USAR is not a convincing winner on sunday then USAR might target the 'Arc' instead with Minding focusing on 8/10f races eg Irish Champion Stakes (10f) and/or QE2 Stakes (8f) at Ascot. If so, Minding - entered for the Matron Stakes (8f/11/8 'fav') and the Irish Champion Stakes (10f) but both on 10th Sept - could be rerouted to the latter instead. Hence, Qemah, a certain runner in the Matron Stakes, could be a value/risky bet even at 5/2 now.

gpz 613 ? how dare you  , that guy is a fool ! im gpz 6316 a far superior number ! a joke . i think minding has run her best races now . it will be  fresh horses for the st leger and arc imo obviously idaho looks all set but is no price and therefore no interest to me .if it comes up soft or heavy in ireland for the champion then usar may well head to donny i know its unlikely but at over 20s for the race when hell be favaourite if he runs its worth a point or two  . no opinion regarding the matron but 5/2 is not a antepost price  imo . best of luck to ya "impossible 122"

gpz6316

Apology, old age approaching and/or a trip to 'specsaver' a necessity soon.

With The Gurkha out of action 'Coolmore' need a credible representative for 8f/10f, and at the moment Minding is the only one unless USAR hoses up tomorrow. If not, Minding could be rerouted to the Irish Champion Stakes rather than running in the Matron Stakes, and very possibly the 'Arc' too. But I'm almost 100% certain USAR will not be pitched against Idaho in the Leger - stamina doubt - and both competing stallions in the future unless Idaho is unwell then possibly but reluctantly.

gpz6316

On 2nd thought USAR could end up here - there is no other prestigious middle distance race (I think) - after the disappointing run at the Curragh today over 10f. It is very unlikely the Irish Champion Stakes will be on the card for him - Minding perhaps. However, USAR needs at least a Gp2/3 scalp on his breeding cv otherwise he'll be as cheap as chips, immaculate breeding or not.

No chance he goes for Leger.

unclepuncle

That was my earlier assumption/conclusion, but not too sure now post USAR demise in the Royal Whip this afternoon. He is still in the Leger in case something untoward prevents Idaho making it, I guess - it is plausible.

hmm its a boiling pot right now , i dont think usar can win a bc turf nor a arc  , he doesnt look like a champion stakes winner , hes been the cherry all season now where can i pop him ? doncaster !maybe  and idaho ,  well his cv doesnt read much at all so let the one with the profile win the leger and lets say idaho is injured .

im thinking aiden wants usar to win a big one , if idaho wins it what use is that hes got a nh pedigree at best but if you let usar loose you can have a stallion and then you can give idaho a 4yo career wherein he wins the tattersalls gold cup , coronation cup , king george thats my opinion at this moment . i know nothing though its just my imagination

How is it an NH pedigree? He's a full brother to Highland Reel who has just won the King George and finished 2nd in the Juddmonte International.The dam sire is Danehill.

I agree he is more likely to be campaigned as 4yo than USAR but that's only gut feel rather than based on any hard evidence.Assuming USAR wins a Group 1 which looks something of a leap of faith at the moment.

Until USAR has been officially withdrawn from this race I'll continue to have a premonition he could turn up here to gate crash Idaho's party - this could be his only chance to 'steal' a Gp1 for his cv. If so, there will be cries of 'foul-play' from Idaho backers, I'd strongly imagine.

The race looks very likely to cut up really badly again, I can see another 7 runner St leger. Still hopeful that AOB will run Sword Fighter and I might get a run for my small stakes, however it does look like he is somewhere below on the pecking order.

USAR is officially out leaving Idaho for a clear run to the top prize, hopefully.

AOB have left in Idaho, Housesofparliament, Sword Fighter, Unicorn, Pretty Perfect, Somehow, The Major General, Kellstorm, Triplicate and Cook Island but thankfully no USAR; I think AOB will have at least 3 runners, with one as pacemaker.

Exceptionally good money for something equivalent to a Group 3 slog. Won't take a lot of winning this year. What's happened to Leger winners of last 10 years? None of them you could call absolutely top class could you? Hopefully Idaho will chnage all that. Anything ran in the Leger subsequently gone hurdling?

Idaho has been a friend of mine but I have not backed him antepost for the St Leger. Despite the apparent weakness of the opposition, there have been many "good things" who have fallen in a hole during this last furlong. Hope he isn't one.

Idaho ran an excellent race to win going away in the Voltigeur post a long break after two arduous derbies against Harzand. I think (hope) the withdrawals of USAR and Across The Stars have made the task of Idaho winning significantly easier; Unless Muntahaa or Sword Fighter runs well beyond the forms they have shown so far - Idaho has beaten the majority of the principal runners here - I believe this year's Leger is Idaho's to win, and it can only be just reward, if I may say so. I also hope he stays in training next year.

On form he is a comlete shoo-in but having not played antepost I'll be hoping he gets beat.

unclepuncle

On the other hand I'm sweet on Idaho with antepost and trebles/acca big time at 6/1. I hope he wins as he deserves it, and is the best rated horse by a long way.

Conduit was clearly top-class. So was the thing of Varians that won it, went very well in an Arc, have been some shocking winners as well though I agree. It actually lessens the stallion value of a top horse so USAR was never going to run in it.

I wouldn't run Idaho in it as it will bury his second career when he wins.

Wouldn't rule out Idaho going St Leger then arc, just like Kingston Hill.

The progeny of Galileo have a poor record in the St Leger considering the amount of runners the sire has had in the last 10 years. Sixties Icon was out of an Oaks winner. Idaho is certainly not a shoo-in on breeding stats for the St Leger. Food for thought.....?

Kingston Hill finished 2nd in the 2014 Epsom Derby with Romsdal 3rd; in the St Leger (14f) the former was victorious and the latter 2nd reaffirming their Epsom Derby positions.

Idaho was 3rd and 2nd respectively in this year's Epsom and Irish Derby behind Harzand and USAR who are non-runners here with Wing Of Desire, one of the potential St Leger runners, 5 lengths behind Idaho. I understand there had been several Derby/progeny of Galileo runners not upholding their forms over this extra 2f race but Idaho had proven in the Voltigeur (12f) he'd be held up, quicken and outstay his field with the exception of Muntahaa and Sword Fighter who'd run over 14f and 16f respectively.

I think one must not confuse value with merit: on merit, Idaho is the rightful 'fav' with the best chance of winning unless Idaho does not see out 14f; Muntahaa and Sword Fighter need to improve significantly to win this - the rest probably running for place money, I'd envisage.

I will be hoping to see an interesting supplemented runner who would be a very likely winner of this race.

Unless USAR is supplemented - is that allowed? - after having been withdrawn from this race at the forfeit stage tomorrow I'm finding it difficult to find an alternative to Idaho who has been prepared for this race since the Irish Derby at the end of June. He is no world beater on present form but I think he's improved since the Epsom Derby if using Harzand and the Irish Derby as a guide. He might even get his preferred ground of good or good to soft - the current official going - come race day.

Gosden has ruled out Wings Of Desire for the St Leger.

Impossible - i think it's allowed. Remember Wings of desire was taken out of derby entries, then supped for 75k.

Yes, I forgot about Wings of Desire in the Epsom Derby.

No USAR, that is a relief for Idaho antepost backers.

Idaho is 1.87 here.  If I had a bet on him I'd be laying off and taking the win now.
He has the form, but that form has to be produced on the day, and over a longer distance.

I have about six doubles running with Idaho the second part of them all.
I remember my old man had about 13 with another "certainty".
Shergar.

Housesofparliament @ 10 for me - Colm O'Donoghue to win the race and keep it this time.

Despite with several doubles and trebles running on Idaho at 6/1 who would like a softer surface which I think he'll get tomorrow I'd fancy Sword Fighter on price and also he's done the distance and quite a decent horse too finishing behind Big Orange. But Idaho is fresh, and hopefully he'll win with a bit to spare.

I've no bet in the race and kinda feel like I'd have to manufacture a case to oppose the favourite so I may leave it now.

Sword Fighter is the one that appeals though - ground would have been plenty quick for him at Goodwood and the form of that race has just been franked in the Doncaster Cup by Sheikhzayedroad (where was my favourite horse in training Pallasator?).

It's more the impression of his battling win in Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot on testing ground which appeals to me - on that basis you'd have to also give a squeak to Harbour Law who was just behind him there (would be a great story if he won for such a small stable).They did n't go any great gallop in that race though although Sword Fighter did produce a decent time performance when he beat Landofhopeandglory in a Group 2 at the Curragh later in the month.

But Ballydoyle have had all season to get their 3yo pecking order sorted out since then.

If Idaho gets the trip he looks like a winner but if he does not the race is wide open.
The Tartan Spartan was six lengths adrift of Sword Fighter at Ascot. That was a step up on his first run and he might well improve again. Doncaster could suit him better than Ascot and , for tiny stakes , he is worth a bet. Name your price!

Idaho being backed if defeat is out of the question. People prepared to take pretty much any price about the horse now.

The money for Idaho are not from Joe public but 'Coolmore' and their associates eg £10k at 4/5 could be easy money - only if he wins - may I add; AOB could have the 1st, 2nd and 3rd but in what order, betting market?

Backed Idaho win. Tried to find an alternative but couldn`t.

I can't find anything wrong with the market here which is spot on chances I think. No value anywhere then. I will leave this race well alone but I hope Idaho gets his G1 and then goes on to the Arc.

been gagging to get idaho have taken him on with the sword fighter

That`s racing.

i have to say that was a cracking ride from baker...wd winners

Congratulation, backers of Harbour Law!

Commiseration, backers of Idaho - it just was not to be, I'm afraid. Hey, next time.

well if they ran usar like i told em to they wouyld be winners now as would i !

I remember my old man had about 13 with another "certainty".
[i]Shergar[/i]

Like father, like son........very unlucky.

Winner did not look at all keen on going past horses but the jockey got him there -  won a shade cosily

Fortunately today's potential payout didn't compare to the Voltiguer one ZenMaster (see Great Voltiguer thread for proof of no after timing), but was pleased for today's connections, it was special for them. I had the chance to lay pre-race to guarantee a profit both ways, but chose not to. No complaints here.

A bad day for short price favourites eg Idaho and Qemah - both unlucky in running - that is racing. But, thank goodness Awtaad to the rescue, otherwise a whitewash.