Can Minding win the Oaks?

Minding has been overrated surely? Both English Guineas winners turned over in Ireland.

won the English 1000G
2nd Irish 1000G,btn hd,
of course she can!

no filly had ever done the guineas double then oaks....it is suicide longterm for the season.

Do i still need to add The Gurkha to my portfolio Eric?
Had him in the book as a lay .
Should i get out @ 16.0? Ta

A very good chance despite a slight hiccup today - the additional 4f is the main obstacle and not the competition; it certainly is a whole lot easier without So Mi Dar present.

Better ground is clearly the key and by all accounts picked up a knock today. All things considered if sound and gets there a lump on jobbie. These Coolmore osses are good moving physical specimans not built for pulling carts.

Having backed Minding AP for the Oaks & also to do the 1,000/Oaks double, I was shocked and disappointed to see her run in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. I have major concerns she won't even make it to post now at Epsom and Coolmore's decision-making has been poor. Was the Irish Guineas that important they would risk running their seeming no1 for the Oaks in it, just 13 days before the Epsom race? Far too many last minute u-turns with their horses' targets.

Have to agree Johnny, unless they had decided she wasn't really ideally bred for the Oaks. Perhaps they have increasing confidence in another filly for that race. But if she really is their number one, the Irish Guineas call looked unfathomable.

The run of Minding in the Irish 1000g was an afterthought, according to AOB, and brought about by the off colour of Ballydoyle. However, AOB and the Coolmore did not anticipate the atrocious ground condition and Minding banging her nostrils at the gate; two firms are offering "no runner, no bet" hence can "hedge" but not here though.

AOB: "Minding had a swelling on her face this morning but was otherwise fine. John Halley, our vet, had a look at her and he was quite happy with her. She'll have an easy week and we'll make a decision about the Oaks when we see how she is towards end of the week or early next week."

This topic Can Minding win the Oaks? should be changed to Will Minding go to The Oaks?

Minding was matched at 4 here.

I am not sure that we are getting the facts here. Watch the race back. Minding was as quiet as a mouse in the stalls and she absolutely 100% did not bang her head. I think she bled, simple as that. And I guess that has to put a big question mark next to her.....

Irish journalist on the Racing Post podcast said he'd seen a photo of Minding's injury and there was "a hole big enough to put your fist in"

Trainers are becoming like football managers, they come out with a right old load of sh1te they think is diplomatic, rather than tell the truth.

O'Brien said he was 'very pleased' after Minding got turned over in Ireland. He came out with similar nonsense after that farce at Chester when US Army Ranger was handed the race by the runner up. Mind you, he was sweating buckets at Chester and looked like he knew we all knew what a dope he looked.

Notsofastmyfriend
Date Joined:    22 Nov 10
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25 May 16 19:11 Joined: 22 Nov 10 | Topic/replies: 48 | Blogger: Notsofastmyfriend's blog
Irish journalist on the Racing Post podcast said he'd seen a photo of Minding's injury and there was "a hole big enough to put your fist in"

where is this photograph then?

What's this then?

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/may/22/minding-irish-1000-guineas-defeat-jet-setting-aidan-obrien-oaks-curragh-horse-racing

Don't look like a 'photoshop' to me.

Looking at other photos, I can't see a major cut or laceration but it is difficult to judge properly. Therefore, I would tend to agree with richardf, but then again I don't feel kind about that being just a punter.

there is no hole on her face bigger than her nostrils and you could get a baby's fist in one of those

walofs imo

couldnt

Honestly, AOB would not stoop to that level for an excuse post a defeat otherwise there would have been murmurings from the racing journalists post disclosure of those mobile photos.

Let's hope Minding is declared at the Confirmation Stage on 28th May.

There's clearly blood but if she simply burst that would not be good for the lads.  Breeders don't like bleeders.  Better to say she banged her head.

If she bled from the lungs then I do not see her staying on like that. They usually go out like a light when they do. Why not take AOB's explanation /what has been said at face value?

Yeah, that's assuming she burst 3f out Sandown.  Nobody said that.  She could have burst 75yds from the post...funnily enough somewhere around the time Ryan backed off and JS surged to the front, maybe.

I would love to take what he said at face value, but if you look at the race footage it is absolutely clear that she did not bang her head in the stalls.

If she did bleed from the lungs then she won't run. We'll know soon enough, I guess.

I see no evidence of head-banging from 1:27 to 2:07 (when the gates open).  So if she did "anticipate the start" she was a long way off!

Make up your own minds here..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3YkElJy3Bk

Good upload The Headmaster. I see no anticipation or knock.

if you look at the race footage it is absolutely clear that she did not bang her head in the stalls.

I have looked at the footage, stop motion under a magnifying glass and I cannot say that it is absolutely clear at all.If anything, the opposite would be true. There is an instant just before the stalls open when she has her head down below the gate and it is still below the gate a fraction later. Compare her head with the horse next to her and most of the others. Her head is the lowest. She could easily have banged her nose at that moment. Without a zoom and big closeup you cannot be certain at all but as I say on the balance of probabilities I would say that she could more easily have banged her nose in that position than not banged her nose.

You have set a hare running which has led to unnecessary speculation. Your statement that you are 100% certain is totally unjustified imo.

It is all surmising.

fyi I'm just joining in the fun Sandown

All a bit murky innit?

To be honest I don't think it is fun, I feel a bit uncomfortable after commenting really and am not going to bother with this line of post-race analysis. Minding was a really good filly at Newmarket twice. 'If she did bleed from the lungs then she won't run. We'll know soon enough, I guess.' is a fair place to depart.

No offense intended The Headmaster.

You're alright old chap - none taken...tbh you're right I should be taking this more seriously

The evidence that she was bleeding from hernostril is clear from tsill photos. What isd not clear is when that happened. The race footage close-up hints that something might be there from when they rturn in but it is no more than a suggestion and I would not say that there is with any degree of certainty.

There has not been the slightest indication that she might be a bleeder from any of her runs and in this run she is still pretty game right until the line.The jockey strikes the filly 6 times in the last 2f the last time just before the line. She was beaten fair and square and to my eye Moore did not ease off.

Headmaster, you need a good talking to for encouraging dissent among the class.

One final comment. I said the photo (Guardian) showed her bleeding from a nostril..

Correction, under the glass the blood is clearly between her nostils, not from her nostrils supporting the claim that it was a bang on the nose. Later, AOB said that it was her sinus that bled which if so, must come from her nostril.Confusing, but as she apparently showed bruising afterwards then I must believe the trainer. The vet is happy at the moment. That's good enough for me.

This speculation has led to a price drift. Fine by me, but I would say that the original post on this is pretty close to ramping imo.

If she is withdrawn because of bleeding from the lungs then I will apologise.

Notsofastmyfriend
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25 May 16 19:11 Joined: 22 Nov 10 | Topic/replies: 48 | Blogger: Notsofastmyfriend's blog
Irish journalist on the Racing Post podcast said he'd seen a photo of Minding's injury and there was "a hole big enough to put your fist in"

where is this photograph then?

The photo was from AOB's phone.

"Irish journalist on the Racing Post podcast said he'd seen a photo of Minding's injury and there was "a hole big enough to put your fist in" - was he sure that he'd not mistaken Minding's nostrils for the injury?

Jesus F C ... She has a 6 inch laceration on her offside cheek !!?? ... you can't see it in any of the photos but that's what AO'B was pointing out,

She burst a couple of blood vessels in her nearside nostril which is nothing,

Obviously evidence of an incident is visible from the laceration between the nostrils.


A Bleeder !!?? ... what are you guys smoking !? ... Was she on Lasix in the Fillies' Mile / 1000 G Romp . The filly is a machine.

Wow ffs, what you getting on your high horse for-‘Jesus F C ... She has a 6 inch laceration on her offside cheek !!?? ... you can't see it in any of the photos …Obviously evidence of an incident is visible from the laceration between the nostrils.’

Offside? = the side of a vehicle furthest from the kerb. Is that the side near the running rail (1) on the far side or the stands side (2)?

Calm down, take three deep breaths and have a peruse my dear fellow.

(1)    https://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fpolopoly_fs%2F1.2656682.1463930254!%2Fimage%2Fimage.jpg_gen%2Fderivatives%2Fbox_620_330%2Fimage.jpg&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fsport%2Fracing%2Fjet-setting-leaves-minding-in-her-slipstream-to-take-1-000-guineas-1.2656684&docid=lhxuzY3JL3NbaM&tbnid=KeLG8JQvar8QgM%3A&w=620&h=330&client=firefox-b&bih=897&biw=1280&ved=0ahUKEwiU_cao3vrMAhWDAMAKHb1wDXwQMwgfKAIwAg&iact=mrc&uact=8
(2)    https://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fichef.bbci.co.uk%2Fonesp...

Madhu,

'offside' and 'nearside' are terms used in equine anatomy to describe the rhs and lhs of a horse (as they face forward).

It's very standard convention

Anyway, I don't accredit Minding's reversal on that ground to anything but the ground, so it's really irrelevant.

But the 'hole you could put your fist through' as it was described was supposedly on the offside, the Guardian photo was of the nearside,

That's all.

Interesting to see (as I expected) that from the other side there's nothing much there, because if there was she wouldn't be out since Tue !!


So, look, everybody knows Aidan uses any excuse to preserve the rep of the horses because of the breeders he represents - any

Minding's task has just become a whole lot easier now that Ballydoyle has been withdrawn with the latter being aimed at the Prix Diane (French Oaks) or Coronation Stakes, all being well.

trainer in his position, (building up Sires for Coolmore) would do likewise,

I think everyone knows how to discount his hype by now.

wohooooo

Why did Ballydoyle come out now !? ... 5 day dec is Mon ? I expected this, but am surprised by the timing...

Is it because of the French rule about declaring for two races ?

I don't know - I guess they are v bullish on Minding and want to put down a marker to that effect, maybe cut the field size, stop trainers 'having a go' against a weakened fav ...

It's a strong statement of intent - Ballydoyle being such an excellent backup

The Confirmation/Supplementary Stage for the Oaks is tomorrow 28th May.

I think Coolmore running five is plainly strategic eg to facilitate a proper pace, minimise possible dangers and maximise chances of winning should the stamina of Minding come up short; Even Song, Seventh Heaven and Somehow, the last two mentioned, both winners of their trials could improve and win in their own right.

Did anyone hear Lydia on RacingUk post Oaks race say Minding would be rested and not go to the Irish Oaks but Even Song would instead?