Horse Antepost
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Galileo Gold 7/4
Air Force Blue 7/2
Masaat 5/1
Awtaad 7/1
Air Vice Marshall 8/1
Hit It A Bpmb 10/1
Blue De Vega 10/1
12/1 Bar
Will start off by saying I don't think Massaat is running, looks like he is being prepared for Epsom.
I think it is the correct choice to try and win another Group 1 over a mile from Hugo Palmer with Galileo Gold. The way he won at Newmarket says he does not have much to fear from those behind as there were no hard luck stories. He overcame a wide draw and must have covered more ground than most and clocked a good time. What might be against him is very fast ground so at 7/4 it's best to wait and see what the ground will be.
Air Force Blue was a massive disappointment at Newmarket. It is quite possible he has not trained on. Personally i couldn't touch him at any price in this race given how ''bullish'' everyone was about him. It's not uncommon for AOB's horses to turnaround massive flops on their seasonal debuts but this one feels different.
Air Vice Marshall is the more interesting AOB runner imo as he had not run for almost a year before his 4th at Newmarket and he was probably trained with a view to this race in mind.
However, I have backed Awtaad eachway, before he hacked up last time and again at 7/1 with billies currently. He has won his last two starts very easy, both at the Curragh and the trainer believes he'll be better should they get Good ground. Being by Cape Cross, it's probably likely. Both the trainer and jockey believe this is a good a chance of winning the Guineas as they have had and his performances would confirm some of that belief so far imo.
Blue De Vega was having his first run of the season behind Awtaad last time, and conceded him 3lb, so logically you'd expect him to get closer next time. But for me Awtaad is the one progressing.
Air Force Blue 7/2
Masaat 5/1
Awtaad 7/1
Air Vice Marshall 8/1
Hit It A Bpmb 10/1
Blue De Vega 10/1
12/1 Bar
Will start off by saying I don't think Massaat is running, looks like he is being prepared for Epsom.
I think it is the correct choice to try and win another Group 1 over a mile from Hugo Palmer with Galileo Gold. The way he won at Newmarket says he does not have much to fear from those behind as there were no hard luck stories. He overcame a wide draw and must have covered more ground than most and clocked a good time. What might be against him is very fast ground so at 7/4 it's best to wait and see what the ground will be.
Air Force Blue was a massive disappointment at Newmarket. It is quite possible he has not trained on. Personally i couldn't touch him at any price in this race given how ''bullish'' everyone was about him. It's not uncommon for AOB's horses to turnaround massive flops on their seasonal debuts but this one feels different.
Air Vice Marshall is the more interesting AOB runner imo as he had not run for almost a year before his 4th at Newmarket and he was probably trained with a view to this race in mind.
However, I have backed Awtaad eachway, before he hacked up last time and again at 7/1 with billies currently. He has won his last two starts very easy, both at the Curragh and the trainer believes he'll be better should they get Good ground. Being by Cape Cross, it's probably likely. Both the trainer and jockey believe this is a good a chance of winning the Guineas as they have had and his performances would confirm some of that belief so far imo.
Blue De Vega was having his first run of the season behind Awtaad last time, and conceded him 3lb, so logically you'd expect him to get closer next time. But for me Awtaad is the one progressing.
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Still favouring Awtaad at the moment but not sure of the predicted going?
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Air Force Blue already been cut to 3/1 but like you Sint I couldn't back it with counterfeit.
Think I'll do Blue De Vega @ 10/1 with a stakes saver on the favourite @ 7/4 who should probably be odds on. |
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i like atwaad also........i dont really rate galileo gold........a very poor 2000g.........i dont know what to make of AFB....should forget about this race and go sprinting.
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I cannot write off a good horse after one bad run - look at Foundation in the Dante. AFB deserves another chance to redeem his reputation especially his trainer blaming himself thinks for doing too much with AFB just prior to the 2000G - I'm more concerned about the going on the day. However, I do agree I'm not overly impressed with Galileo Gold either despite beating Massaat and others easily .
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Very surprised to see Shogun has been declared. I've always thought he needs several furlongs more than 8f myself - a public exercise with prize money perhaps.
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If they run AFB , I would expect it to win, what amazes me is what a difference 21 days can make?, now he wants it too firm up that ground, he has the best tactical speed, and Frankie will find it tough having to judge pace on GG.
But will it run? keep out the ante post market. |
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Many of the boys horses over the years do the bookmakers a big favor. just an observation.
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Shogun was probably left in as reading between the lines AOB is very keen on this horse. But Shogun is very ground dependent.
The going at the Curragh is currently good (good to firm on the round course), but there's rain forecast. He ran in the Craven, and the heavens opened prior to racing. Ryan Moore got on board in the Derrinstown, only for it to tip it down the day before. A mile is certainly on the short side, but its clear that AOB wants to see this horse perform in Group company on decent ground before committing to the Derby. |
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Granted gd/ fast ground I would give AFB another chance to find his best 2yo form, Newmarket was just to bad to be true. Hopefully they don't get much rain over in Ire, & lets see what he is made of at 3yo.
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Awtaad is risibly priced in single figures. Air Vice Marshall is not without historical claims, having run well enough at hq to offer hope that an improved showing is on the cards after such a long lay off, but it's hard to see him improving enough to win. GG drawn perfectly for a prominent racer and will reproduce his Guineas run. Air Force Blue is therefore the only danger of he reproduces his Dewhurst form. Barring an avalanche of money for AFB in the fifteen minutes before the off, GG is the confident bet.
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if, not of.
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this race revolves on AFB and whether he is the force of old. wouldn't be surprised if he improved 20-25lbs on his last run. AOb has performed this many times before
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On my ratings Galileo Gold is the worst Guineas winner for a few years but even poor Guineas winners can sometimes follow up here (Tirol and Don't Forget Me from years ago come to mind) if the opposition is weak enough and it looks very weak here. I didn't rate the Dewhurst especially highly but I have Air Force Blue 3lbs ahead of GG, if he comes back to his best he ought to win but with no obvious excuse his Guineas run offered no encouragement at all so the price doesn't tempt me. On the face of it GG looks the safer bet but I thought he looked to have quite a hard race at Newmarket so it would be no surprise to see him run below that form here and I'd say his price is about right so again no bet. The rest really don't look up to winning a classic but it wouldn't be the biggest shock to see the front two disappoint and one of the outsiders win by default.
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If GG does not win then I really think it will be Awtaad. He is very progressive and could improve again on this quicker ground.
From a betting p.o.v im on Awtaad ew but i'd love it if GG won as the trainer seemed to get a lot of criticism for not wanting to have a crack at the Derby. It would be one in the eye for all the critics for sure. |
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The rainfall radar on met.ie would suggest The Curragh got a tiny amount of rain last night. Heavy rain fell a bit north of there.
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Backing Galileo Gold win.
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AFB for me if ground is no none than good to soft, and no more if he cannot perform today.
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Will hold fire on any bets until the first few races, hopefully then we will find out what the ground is really like? Personally I wanted gd fast ground for AFB. On atr at the mo, they are saying more rain is poss before the the Gns gets underway??
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Another couple of mms just fell in the last few mins :-(
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Will be surprised if AFB runs with all the rain?? Wait to Royal Ascot & fast ground imo.
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blue reverse forecast
gl all |
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Humble pie. Couldn't see it.
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very well done sint
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Well done to all Awtaad supporters!
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Backed the last three winners at The Curragh but not enough on to buy a bar of chocolate.
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a win is a win, as long as y in profit year end that's all that matters.
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wd Awtaad backers, DOB 1 Feb, SO EASY
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Great shout Sint - you da man.
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Can I be the 1st to say AFB ought to have been withdrawn given ground and uncertainty about distance? I knew my fate despite laying off entire amount at a small profit but it killed my treble.
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it's called nostalgia. at his best he would have been 1st or second today. AOB took a gamble and it didn;t pay off.
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I'd have to disagree as a withdrawal would have meant money refunded on bets placed today and yesterday especially those with multiples.
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fff
Coolmore/Ballydoyle might need to put something else into the mix to go with all those Northern Dancer line stallions. The public pay thee big stud fees and will continue to pay while Aidan wins classic races. They lost Sadler's Wells (age), Danehill (accident), Montjeu (infection), and Galileo is getting on in years (18yo now). They try Storm Cat and War Front horses in Ireland and England but imo they produce early maturing, speedy types. I'm sure Aidan will train more champions because he has the numbers from which to pick. |
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Cheers uncle / harry. Quite a decent return!
Ironically the rain was probably against GG |
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Well done sint.
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Good call Sint
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thought GG ran a blinder, must be rueing not going for the derby felt he stayed on really well
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The winner extended his advantage near the line.
Galileo Gold has no chance at 12 furlongs. |
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