Horse Antepost
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No thread.. here goes...
I have to be honest my main selection would be GABRIELS KING @14/1 - He needs 4 horses to come out and not sure that is going to happen, he would be my main bet considering his 4th here last year and Dr Marwan Koukash loves Chester... and so does this horse... but like I said doubt he will get in... have backed though - if he is balloted out you get money back.
Anyway looking at bigger prices ORIENTAL FOX interests me at 25/1, ran a fantastic race in the Cesarewitch at which he was gambled down to favouritism from 20s in the morning to the off. I think that was a herculean effort considering he was on 9-10 and got pipped by a short head. Quick Jack was behind and he is 8/1 and Steve Rogers too who is 6s.
Johnston horses are extremely difficult to predict but think he if reproduces the Newmarket form will be a very difficult horse to beat
Good Luck
I have to be honest my main selection would be GABRIELS KING @14/1 - He needs 4 horses to come out and not sure that is going to happen, he would be my main bet considering his 4th here last year and Dr Marwan Koukash loves Chester... and so does this horse... but like I said doubt he will get in... have backed though - if he is balloted out you get money back.
Anyway looking at bigger prices ORIENTAL FOX interests me at 25/1, ran a fantastic race in the Cesarewitch at which he was gambled down to favouritism from 20s in the morning to the off. I think that was a herculean effort considering he was on 9-10 and got pipped by a short head. Quick Jack was behind and he is 8/1 and Steve Rogers too who is 6s.
Johnston horses are extremely difficult to predict but think he if reproduces the Newmarket form will be a very difficult horse to beat
Good Luck
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Replies: 32
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Yes Iris looking at him last night has entry later in week at Chester as well. Backed him few times last season fto Ascot, then cost me at Newmarket at big price. Will wait till decs i think but good luck.
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The Cesarewitch 2nd was difficult to stomach. Should not have lost that! Will be running off 109 which is 3lbs higher. If he runs well here connections would probably be forced to race in group company in the future. Don't think they will fancy running an 8 year old in group races for the first time.
More likely they'll send him out a few times over the next few months and lower the handicap mark. Then look to claim some prizes here and in France later on in the year. Who knows though, the stayers division looks quite weak right now. But even the 25/1 doesn't look quite big enough for me |
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See the decs. for the race have just been announced, my original choice Mirsaale was balloted out, but on the evidence of yesterday's run, I don't think he would have figured, even though he was 4lb better in (off 92) on firmer ground.
From the 19 declared, I like the look of Totalize from Brian Ellison's yard, with Callum Shepherd, claiming 5lb., who runs from stall 10, off 95 (90 net). Looks like he has been laid out for this and had a run in France over hurdles last month, so is fit. 28/1 looks a fair e/w price, only concern is the going which could firm up before Wednesday.    |
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Not sure I see the favourite as value here ?! Last year I was very sweet on Duke of Clarence but drawn widest of all scuppered any realistic chance. I cant dismiss this year now drawn better as priced at 25/1. I liked 33/1 Totalise with **** but wasnt sure re Callum Shepherd who does well for the yard in low grade races but this is a big prize. I have gone four against the field William of Orange 25/1, Gabrial The Hero 20/1, Le Maitre Chat 16/1 and Duke of Clarence 25/1
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I have had a punt on Nakeeta but the draw has not been kind. I really liked the look of Steve Rogers, more so after his trainers comments before his last time out win but although he has a course win and is Gold Cup entered, one stat that put me off getting excited and backing him was he had/has yet to win or be placed at class 2 or higher. Because of his form with an old favourite De Rigueur a couple of years ago I will have a bet on the delicate Duke of Clarence come the day.
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Going for the Ormonde methinks.
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Poor ante-post play by me... Gabriel King - think the draw has done him - monumental task to win from there...
Back to the drawing board for me. |
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^ 1st reserve. Money back if NR
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Steve Rogers-Gang Warfare forecast and swinger....just saw civil war...
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Boring I know but will back Steve Rogers each way.
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Steve Rogers 7/2 fave
April 15 - rated 73 and beats a mid 60s rated horse a couple of lengths May 15 - rated 78 and in receipt of a decent amount of weight is back in 5th beaten with the winer and second now rated in 90s but neither won another race since June 15 - rated 78 beats Viking Storm receiving 6lb and rated 84, in third Cosette receiving 2lb now rated 57 July 15 - rated 83 finished third. Winner gives 6lb and now rated 94 but well beaten since Sept 15 - rated 83 and beats Be Perfect who gave 7lb. Be Perfect rated 87 and well beaten on all starts since. 79 rated Rowleston Lass back in 3rd Oct 15 - rated 87 runs 9th in Cesarewich. Quick Jack 3rd and 5lb better off here, Le Maitre Chat 6th and 6lb better off Apr 16 - win AW race..... I dont get it....will hack up now :) |
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no heretic has fallen to a nice mark but it has to be trusted he retains his old ability, nicely drawn he is no no hoper here after his prep run over hurdles, providing he doesn't bounce of course, i'd expect improvement though, tricky affair as always
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Its not poor analysis at all, its the angle I use successfully in many big races and think this horse doesnt warrant being clear favourite on whats been achieved
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Your negative review about him hacking up last time in his prep for this was 'win AW race....'. How is that a negative? What else did you want him to do?
You don't bother taking into consideration his draw in the Cesarewitch? There's a lot more to a race than his finishing position. You don't take any note of his draw for this? It's clear enough you decided to go against him and then built your 'argument', rather than the other way around. It's easy to go against any 7/2 shot. Most of them lose. But you need to actually do some form study if you want to make a respectable argument. |
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Not at all, I base analysis of a race covering all aspects and this horse has place prospects at best imo as it just havent the solid form in the book to be this crazy price. AW form doesnt transfer to turf so yes, its ignored, some love it, some hate it, kick back etc
The rest of the analysis is in the form book, on TURF it has beaten poor quality horses with none of them improvers to solidify the form A mug bet for this race at 7/2. The draw, always so much made of the draw....strangely enough stall 3 one of the worst in the field for this race historically so yes not bothered about the draw either or is that poor analysis and once again not factual ? Show me where this horse has beaten a horse of note to warrant being so short against many proven horses with solid form off a career high mark |
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Also QUick JAck was drawn virtually alongside Steve Rogers in the Cesarewich but finished 3rd and better off here so please explain why he's bigger odds ? My poor analysis actually landed Grumeti in the Cesarewich....were you on Low Key ?
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Presume you said the same (AW form not transferring to turf) about Litigant in the Ebor last year?
Calling stall 3 one of the worst stalls historically is you just looking at black and white without bothering to put colour to it. It just needs a bit more common sense than that. Look, best of luck to you. It's odds on he'll lose. But I think anyone who studies the form will look at your analysis the same as myself. |
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Of course, its all about opinions and I have mine, you have yours and we all do what works for us. Personally Im a value seeker and love to oppose what I see as false favourites like this. Sometimes they win, sometimes they lose and I still lose but occasionally I land a big one. I swerved the Ebor I think last year but the winner was no 7/2 shot transferring AW form.
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Not too tasty Iris......Gabriels King for me in this.Yes the draw not ideal,it might just work in his favour tomorrow,today even!
Tanked through the race last year,with minimal cover on the inside,he looked the winner turning in,putting it mildly he did not get the finest ride seen at the track. Soft side of good ideal,he will need the gaps,if the jockey can hang on long enough,it opened up like the red sea for the winner last year,as those tiring faded. So in essence riding instructions are creep,creep,creep a bit more,then pray..........simples  GL ALL |
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Jesus.......tasty
 .......hasty |
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Yes nocturnal - do agree with you... hope the jockey reads your thread...!
what is encouraging is Marwan Koukash took English Summer out in order to get this horse in... so he must fancy his chances... Not confident with the stall but will stick with this horse and like yourself pray |
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Watching last years race replay and was drawn to JOHNS REEL who was drawn 15 but got to the front and was run out of it in the last furlong....not much form since but runs from a pound lower and drawn better here and Kirby rides again. 7/2 first four places for me.be lucky.
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I do like Quick Jack but the draw put me off. Wouldn`t surprise me at all to see Ryan Moore drop him out and come storming home but c`est la vie.
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Good call Harry, with a better draw perhaps Nakeeta would have pipped it but who knows. Stat Class 2 or above stood up well with the first three.
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Well done Harry. Good call.
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cheers chaps...shame he would of been a really good horse with time, by all accounts he jumped a fox and that caused the injury
i will say one thing he shouldn't get more than 5/6 for that and he pulled hard as is his want for most of the race, i wonder whether a another nice pot could come his way as i think he is adaptable in regards trip, so races like the plate or ebor could suit him although for me this wasn't a good race for the money, so we shouldn't get to carried away with the form, although the second is progressive madhu although i think you were a tad unlucky with the second i'd say you were just beaten by a well handicapped horse, as you know the race is a hostage to fortune but he had every chance in the straight and the winner kept pulling out a tad more |
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well done winners, analysis identifird the poor value favourite but ignored the winner as wasnt sure was the same horse who ran Brown Panther to just under 6l seeing as a hood was fitted on comeback run
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wd harry
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Gabriel Kings ride reminded me a bit of Angel Gabriel few years back when he swooped from a similar position only to lose... Jockey took adventurous route considering - cant complain though as draw had beat him anyway... at least had a few seconds of anticipation...
But well done Harry... No Heretic although low draw - thought age was a negative... but Spencer gave it a good ride! |
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WP HC....winners
Probably about right Iris re the draw,need to watch it back few times,not an easy course to get it right everytime,getting nabbed for a place too, noted nakeeta was drawn 15. The other one you mention finnished full of running,almost last turning in,will keep an eye on both. |