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impossible123
11 Apr 16 07:49
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
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Probable winner/s and opinions please.

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By:
ZenMaster
When: 11 Apr 16 08:23
How about your own first?
By:
impossible123
When: 11 Apr 16 08:59
ZenMaster

I'd plump for Foundation, Emotionless (if he stays) and one of O'brien's eg Hit It A Bomb (if he runs) but not Us Army Ranger (no value / hype, I believe).
By:
unclepuncle
When: 11 Apr 16 12:22
Given the strength in depth that Coolmore have the fact US Army Ranger is already so short despite only winning a maiden is a positive to me. Don't have Foundation or Emotionless as 1m4f types. Midterm could be interesting and is due out on Friday at Newbury.

I backed Idaho @ 25/1 after his debut last year and was happy with his reappearance yesterday - hopefully get a run for my money if nothing else.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 11 Apr 16 13:14
In dubai , an irish group at the races were talking as US ARMY ranger as the next big thing for the derby and St leger before UAR ran its first race.  He handles all ground. It could be a superstar ala Sea the Stars in the making...  It could be a hype horse or another Sea the Stars . You decide.
By:
impossible123
When: 11 Apr 16 13:18
Idaho, rated 125, is a good choice I reckon; another two of APB's eg Johannes Vermeer (129) and Hit It A Bomb (128), the latter is rather doubtful for Epsom and not quoted by Laddies; Midterm could be anything but at 12/1 is just too skinny as a betting and/or trading proposition. But I do like Foundation, ironically a bit like Golden Horn eg dwelt/slowed away in his 1st two races, but acts on most going.

All the above mentioned are entered for the Dante too including Hit It A Bomb.
By:
GILLJAYSMOUSE
When: 11 Apr 16 16:30
Greed, if only you had posted that before it hosed up...you would have gotten a lot of credibility.
By:
go-all-in
When: 11 Apr 16 19:06
I'v got very small money on Foundation at 33s, but in reality he looks like a 10f horse and one that won't enjoy the likely fast ground at Epsom in June. Not sure if he quite strikes me as top class either, he's good, but I'm not sure he's a superstar.

I'd agree with the above that Midterm is interesting and has bags of potential but to me he's just no value at 12/1 after winning a maiden. To put it into some kind of context, Stoute's last derby winner (Workforce) was 25/1 for the Derby during the winter / spring, having missed the break before slamming the field by 6 lengths in a Goodwood maiden (jockey barely able to pull him up after). The 2nd in that maiden had come out and won one of the big sales races next time out. A few winners have come out of Midterms maiden but nothing particularly good, and the visual impression wasn't ultra impressive... I just can't back him at that price. If his dam wasn't Midday he'd probably be double the price.

Similar comments apply to US Army Ranger too to be honest. He can win the Derby if he wants but at about 5/1 on the back of a maiden he's utterly abysmal value at the moment. I do take the point that the money for him could be very well informed, but we've seen just as many of these massively hyped Ballydoyle ones flop completely. Don't have to go back far to think of JF Kennedy and Ol Man River :p

The only other financial involvement I have at this stage is Moonlight Magic who got stuffed in the Ballysax yesterday, so I guess that's one down the drain already!
By:
snowman77
When: 13 Apr 16 12:00
Backed UAE Prince @ 130 in March highly thought of,now 30's. My account doesn@t show my bet all of a sudden. They assure me my bet will be honoured as there were tech issues, not convinced, anyone else have problems about same time?
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Apr 16 12:16
Blue De Vega was bought by Sheikh Fahad of Qatar Racing and won a Gp3 race in Ireland impressively - it is also earmarked for the Epsom Derby post 2000G I understand.
By:
penzance
When: 14 Apr 16 10:40
snowman77
UAE Prince,graph on here and gruss
shows top price matched @55s,only.
If thats any help.
By:
snowman77
When: 14 Apr 16 11:15
Cheers Penzance, that graph only recently changed, I was following it from 17/3 when I matched 130s. and 22/3 when I matched 150s. Now they say there was a tech problem & that the horse was entered into the market twice. They say they will honor my bet but not sure whats gone on.
By:
ZenMaster
When: 14 Apr 16 13:30
I imagine MT has shifted money onto US Army Ranger, and the heavy ground would have been against this one. Looked like the wheels were spinning on the heavy ground but Ryan Moore said there were more gears if needed.

Another Galileo, well balanced, will handle Epsom etc...9/2 . Dante bound and will face Midterm.
By:
mr_sykes
When: 14 Apr 16 20:16
o'Brien's runners in the Dante dont tend to do much in the Derby or often head to France,maybe they send runners to the race to see how the form is,I backed Idaho before the Ballysax and Johannes Vermeer,Idaho looked to do alright but the winner of the Ballysax is seen by connections as maybe not having the speed for the Derby so Im not sure where that leaves Idaho,Johannes Vermeer yet to be seen,Midterm has a little appeal as if he wins tomorrow his price will go in,not sure about USAR,Coolmore are bound to have an ace up their sleeve yet and I've guessed Johannes Vermmer is that one....
By:
impossible123
When: 20 Apr 16 13:41
Another one of O'Brien's biting the dust I'm afraid, maybe two including The Gurkha. Back to the drawing board for Coolmore.

How is So Mi Dar compare to Foundation? Better or not?
By:
Graeme83
When: 20 Apr 16 22:11
Common sense dictates that taking 10/1 on Midterm is crazy. So i took it. Nobody gives you many pointers in flat racing. It's a business more than a sport, plus many of "them" don't like people like "us". Basically i'm guessing as much as anything.  When the penny dropped on his maiden debut, he won well enough. That's a far cry from winning a g1. Hell, part of me is talking the other part of me out of this bet, but there's a degree of let's see what happens. I think he will be alright.
By:
impossible123
When: 02 May 16 18:38
I think as Minding could be heading this way after her scintillating performance in the 1000G that is having a negative effect on the credence and confidence of Us Army Ranger (UAR) at the head of the betting market. As such Midterm has been backed into 9/2 and joint favouritism.
By:
sintonian
When: 02 May 16 20:29
Amazed people are even talking about running her in the Derby. Just why do it? Same sh1t every year.
By:
penzance
When: 02 May 16 21:49
read that Tabor favours the Oaks,
don't believe in fillies running
in the Derby.
By:
geoff m
When: 03 May 16 08:04
Latest

Guineas second Massaat to be aimed at Derby
By Jack Haynes 8:50AM 3 MAY 2016

QIPCO 2,000 GUINEAS second Massaat will be aimed at the Investec Derby with connections hopeful the promising son of Teofilo will stay the trip.

Owen Burrows' stable star ran a fine race in defeat on Saturday, and appeared to be doing his best work at the end of the mile contest, convincing leading owner Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum the two-time Group 1 runner-up will be suited by the step up to a mile and a half.

Massaat, a best priced 20-1 chance with Ladbrokes and Coral for the Epsom showpiece, could provide Burrows, who took over at Kingwood House Stables from Barry Hills at the end of last season, with a memorable Classic winner in his first campaign as a trainer.

'His temperament will help him to stay'
By:
kincsem
When: 03 May 16 08:58
€10 Abdon 162s
€10 Sky Kingdom 159s
By:
A_T
When: 03 May 16 17:49
Coolmoore aren't going to run a filly in the Derby unless they have no other runners. They are not really interested in fillies the business is all about stallions.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 04 May 16 13:50
All I now is that Minding won't run and Midterm beat nothing last time.  US Army is an absolute beast but may be too green to win the derby.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 04 May 16 13:54
how do you know US Army Ranger is an absolute beast?
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 04 May 16 14:11
1) those Irish fellas had a huge bet on him to win the Derby 2) UAR is keeping up with group 1 level horses at home

Those two factors are sometimes not enough to win as with what I said about California Chrome last month, which was reportedly working awfully and still won but when you have that kind of info, you got to take note.
By:
impossible123
When: 04 May 16 15:19
Galileo Gold is the beast, if staying the trip, unless Midterm pulverises his opponents in The Dante. However, I cannot say the same for UAR even if he wins (assuming) comfortably tomorrow as the Chester Vase field is very mediocre - UAR is heading The Derby market solely on the reputation of his trainer.
By:
geoff m
When: 04 May 16 15:35
GREEDISGOOD
04 May 16 15:11
1) those Irish fellas had a huge bet on him to win the Derby
has no bearing whether he will win the Derby or not

2) UAR is keeping up with group 1 level horses at home

Level weights /receiving weight /giving weight
Half speed /steady canter /fast work

Just a few ponderables that very few outside the Ballydoyle camp will know.

Average maiden win  @ Curragh 2nd beat out of site subsequently
3rd was strongly pressed to win a Tipperary maiden
Everythin else in that maiden thats run has finished nearer last then first
By:
geoff m
When: 04 May 16 15:40
Forgot to add very short on experience.
If you can ignore the above he might have a chance


id rather dutch the 1st and 2nd in the guineas (and have)@  a combined bigger price than back a shocking Ante Post fav in US Army Ranger
By:
sintonian
When: 04 May 16 16:09
no Harzand in the Derrinstown trial this weekend, so I hope he has not had a set back. However the trainer/owner run Tirmizi. Idaho likely to turn up for AOB.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 04 May 16 18:06

May 4, 2016 -- 10:35AM, geoff m wrote:


GREEDISGOOD04 May 16 15:111) those Irish fellas had a huge bet on him to win the Derbyhas no bearing whether he will win the Derby or not 2) UAR is keeping up with group 1 level horses at homeLevel weights /receiving weight /giving weightHalf speed /steady canter /fast workJust a few ponderables that very few outside the Ballydoyle camp will know.Average maiden win  @ Curragh 2nd beat out of site subsequently3rd was strongly pressed to win a Tipperary maiden Everythin else in that maiden thats run has finished nearer last then first


true and I agree.  I haven't bet anything on the Derby yet, and certainly not going to take 4-1 on UAE and my guess is that he'll be 6/4 this time tomorrow.  UAE beat dogsh1te last time and IMO Midterm should be an 8-1 fav.  Midterm, however,  beat nothing special either and just about pulled away last furlong from an above average horse last time.  IMO Galileo gold will prob not be entered for the derby as I think 1m2 is his optimum, his trainer sounded iffy about the Derby straight after his win too.

By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 04 May 16 18:10
Average maiden win  @ Curragh 2nd beat out of site subsequently

the second was beaten by a mile by a AOB2nd second string.

Sometimes things don;t make sense in racing
By:
The_LUFCwaffe
When: 05 May 16 10:21
The RP have just put up their assessment of O'Brien's potential Derby horses.

In it they've included Johannes Vermeer and The Gurkha. Less than a month ago the RP stable tour of Ballydoyle revealed the first to be injured and likely to miss the first half of the season, and the second to be viewed more as a French 2000 Guineas horse with doubts about it getting 1 1/2miles. Do these guys read their own columns?

...and to me, they've missed a far more obvious candidate. Shogun
The Lagardere form is looking handy now with Galileo Gold winning the 2000 Guineas.

Shogun looks to need genuine good ground. The faster the better, and being a full brother to last years Oaks winner he'll never have been effective at anything less than a mile.

Just hope it doesn't go the French route
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 05 May 16 13:59
Surprised Midterm is 5-1.  Looked an above average horse last time. nothing special though.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 05 May 16 14:25
lovely bit of schooling in public there imo from hefferman, similar to ballydoyle in the guineas...filth
By:
impossible123
When: 05 May 16 14:28
Anyone impressed with UAR at Chester today? Let's hope UAR was babyish, according to his trainer, otherwise.......
By:
geoff m
When: 05 May 16 14:30
Needs another stone improvement to put him in the Derby shake up.
If hed ran in the Guineas wouldnt have finished in 1st 6
By:
sintonian
When: 05 May 16 14:34
Very fortunate to win imo. Seamie deserves sleepless nights for a week.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 05 May 16 14:46
UAR looked too green and a lucky win, though it was cantering behind Douglas then didn't do much. Probably wins like Giant Causeway, so improvement will almost certainly come.  High Grounds (refused to settle) was slammed by 20l here and 9l by Midterm (stayed on well).
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 05 May 16 15:44
I think what we saw today just proves what we probably already knew- that the derby is wide open this year. anything could win it.

in years to come we could be looking back at this years derby and saying it was a poor renewal- still time for something to come out and put it's stamp on the race for example in the Dante next week.
By:
sintonian
When: 05 May 16 15:49
The way High Grounds was ridden today should have been the subject of a stewards enquiry too. An absolute shocker
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