Why on earth do people back antepost these days?

I backed AP selectively to try and gain an advantage; I do it so that I could lay them off nearer the race. However, I do not back trainers with multiple possible runners and/or objectives eg WPM and Cheltenham. But, I did back Don Cossack AP, prior and post the King George as I was fairly certain that was his connections' objective.

I have not and would not back WPM's runners AP in any race because they are either too short (established ones, hence no value) and/or have multiple targets - too risky, probably non-runner. But I'd consider backing them in multiples eg doubles, trebles and acca only with a run (nrnb) even at prohibitive prices.

Impossible's right, AP has its position, but only with certain stables, who target races for their stable stars. Mullins and AOB are not good investments in the markets.

Looking at Cheltenham AP for 2017 there is nothing worth backing at the odds in any race, that I can see, the markets are getting tighter and worse every year.

Still some value in backing on the flat (except AOB) where targets can be more easily predicted, but if prep runs don't go to plan then non-runners can bring down the value of an ante-post portfolio dramatically.

I'm scaling back my Ante-Post investments from hereon in.

Guys you missed the point.  In running odds give far superior odds to Antepost. 

Take for instance:
- Air Force Blue for the 2000 guineas is now EVS.  That is ludicrous because this horse is a hold up horse from the rear and never won from the front.  I can absolutely guarantee you'll see 3.0 -4.0 in running.
- Or even California Chrome for the Dubai World Cup.  3.0 is a trap because the horse is not working brilliantly but the connections no choice to run him .  May or may not be pulled so well worth a place lay
-Or even Many Clouds for the National at 10.0.  Almost certain you'll see 16s + in running.

But Greed, what if you've got 8/1 about Air Force Blue? There are loads of examples of antepost value imo.

And you can guarantee there are plenty of horses on the lists now that will still be value. I agree prices have tightened, and its become harder, but the value is still there.

Mar 22, 2016 -- 12:57PM, Can't Catch Me wrote:

But Greed, what if you've got 8/1 about Air Force Blue? There are loads of examples of antepost value imo.And you can guarantee there are plenty of horses on the lists now that will still be value. I agree prices have tightened, and its become harder, but the value is still there.

I'd be popping out the champers mate.  if there is a rainstorm in 6 weeks time yr facked though.  Don't believe everything trainers say though. 80% of the time trainers are full of sh1te especially the American ones.

The flat is tougher now as Gosden is very poor in giving out accurate information on his steers. Rare Derby and Arc double winner Golden Horn was underplayed by Gosden right up until the Dante imo intentionally. Not for financial reasons but dont think he likes the pressure of having the best. This costs antepost punters financially the bookies had a virtual skinner on the Derby thanks to Gosden not letting the public know the real quality he was seeing at home. These are the worst type of trainers for antepost punters.

OP has the game by the balls

Greed. Im not saying the horse will definitely win. Im just providing a counter argument to your question Why on earth do people back antepost these days?. There is still plenty of value in antepost punting. Its certainly not what it once was, but much of that is because information is more freely available these days.

The only way Many Clouds will touch 16s in the National is if he's beaten... in which case you might as well have evens.

i can guarantee you'll see 16s even if he wins.  Last year i remember he was 50s in running.

4 of the last 5 National winners have NOT gone bigger IR acc. to www.betfair.com (and the one before that, Don't Push It, went out only from BFSP of 18 to 19.2)

Sorry..ignore that 

The only post-Cheltenham value I could see that stood out, was DOUVAN to win the 2017 Gold Cup, where he was 20/1 with Stan James, This compared with around 5/1 or 6/1 on Vautour after his Festival novice chase romp last year.


I took the 20/1 on the basis that WPM has always said that DOUVAN is different class, and the Gold Cup has been mentioned as often as the Champion Chase.

WM has never won the Gold Cup, and with Djakadam being his 6th runner-up, he will multi-enter all his quality chasers for the Gold Cup.  My hope is that DOUVAN gets the chance to shine over longer than 2M early in the new season, and is so impressive that they move him into in top rank the Gold Cup field.

The fly in the ointment is what happens to Vautour, but if Douvan is more impressive than him, then he may come out on top.  I think that one or other will run in the Gold Cup alongside Djakadam from the RR/WM stable.

20/1 seemed like a fair price on all of this happening. He has just shortened to 16/1, which still compares well with 6/1 Vauotour last year.

I'd be absolutely amazed if Douvan runs in the GC next year rather than the natural progression race post the Arkle ie the CC; no doubt Douvan had been impressive but what had Douvan beaten, anything of special potential eg Sprinter Sacre, Dodging Bullet, UDS, Sire De Grugy, etc? Until after against these lot and possibly over 20f I'd doubt very much Douvan would be aimed at the GC despite what WPM had been saying.

I'd think Vautour is a better proposition in the King George this year than Douvan should Douvan run as well.

In reply to the op's first line - I am just trying to bet a horse that actually runs my latest disaster is Mitraad just been taken out of the Lincoln,I have a little ew on Donncha and it's touch and go for him one day I might learn

There is not a chance in hell they will ask Douvan to win over 3m 2furlongs.

Mar 28, 2016 -- 3:34PM, duncan idaho wrote:

4 of the last 5 National winners have NOT gone bigger IR acc. to www.betfair.com (and the one before that, Don't Push It, went out only from BFSP of 18 to 19.2)

so what was rule the world.?

must of been at least triple figures

Rule The World IR high of 42


(i corrected that quote btw)

Mar 22, 2016 -- 12:15PM, GREEDISGOOD wrote:

Guys you missed the point.  In running odds give far superior odds to Antepost.  Take for instance:- Air Force Blue for the 2000 guineas is now EVS.  That is ludicrous because this horse is a hold up horse from the rear and never won from the front.  I can absolutely guarantee you'll see 3.0 -4.0 in running.- Or even California Chrome for the Dubai World Cup.  3.0 is a trap because the horse is not working brilliantly but the connections no choice to run him .  May or may not be pulled so well worth a place lay-Or even Many Clouds for the National at 10.0.  Almost certain you'll see 16s + in running.

well i was right apart from California Chrome.  AFB was a joke price and wtf is Minding doing as fav for the Derby.  That is fooking lay all day long. When is the last time Tabor ran a filly in the Derby?

What price did Galileo Gold go in running?

GREEDISGOOD

I would be surprised if Coolemore ran Minding in the Derby, given that a victory for a Coolemore bred colt is far more profitable in business terms for them in the long term

What price did Galileo Gold go in running?

The results page says 24.

Thankyou, then backing ante-post was the right thing to do in this case.

u what? 24-1? when the SP was 12-1.  U could of saved months of wait and uncertainty and value by backing GG in running.

No not months just a day or two after the Monday declarations.

GREEDISGOOD 08 May 16 11:42 Joined: 31 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 2,042 | Blogger: GREEDISGOOD's blog
u what? 24-1? when the SP was 12-1.  U could of saved months of wait and uncertainty and value by backing GG in running.

another p1sstake or are you now proving you're a total moron?

FELTFAIR 08 May 16 18:28 Joined: 01 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 4,611 | Blogger: FELTFAIR's blog
No not months just a day or two after the Monday declarations.

indeed, you beat me to it Felt

May 15, 2016 -- 12:31PM, Charlton2005 wrote:

GREEDISGOOD 08 May 16 11:42 Joined: 31 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 2,042 | Blogger: GREEDISGOOD's blogu what? 24-1? when the SP was 12-1.  U could of saved months of wait and uncertainty and value by backing GG in running.another p1sstake or are you now proving you're a total moron?

here we go. the moment one makes an error...attack attack..  i find this wholly saddening.  focus on the positives.

May 15, 2016 -- 12:34PM, Charlton2005 wrote:

FELTFAIR 08 May 16 18:28 Joined: 01 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 4,611 | Blogger: FELTFAIR's blogNo not months just a day or two after the Monday declarations.indeed, you beat me to it Felt

well done charlton, you indeed beat him to it.  (pat on the back)

GREEDISGOOD 15 May 16 13:47 Joined: 31 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 2,046 | Blogger: GREEDISGOOD's blog
May 15, 2016 -- 12:34PM, Charlton2005 wrote:

FELTFAIR 08 May 16 18:28 Joined: 01 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 4,611 | Blogger: FELTFAIR's blogNo not months just a day or two after the Monday declarations.indeed, you beat me to it Felt

well done charlton, you indeed beat him to it.  (pat on the back)

you really are the money tree of the AP forum

you really are the the piece of gum everyone steps on by accident. well done charlton!

Ante-post betting is no different to any other form of gambling - it's all about risk vs reward. The secret (as with any form of gambling - and that includes Stock Markets, derivatives, cards etc), is to gain an edge so that you can accurately assess risk and know more more than the guy setting the prices/reward - via research, effort & discipline.

There is no such thing as 'easy money'. There is, however, an opportunity to 'beat the bookie' by knowing more than him. Especially true when each firm can't afford to employ someone to exclusively cover your area of specialism. If (like me) you are also trying to hold-down a day job, then that means focus. Pick your area/specialism and stick to it - do not try to spread yourself too thinly (I'm as guilty as the next man - PGA Tour golf being my weak point).

I have been gambling for 30+ years and have made as many (more?) mistakes as the next man - the secret is to learn from them - else you're doomed.

Some posts on this thread are more akin to the types you see on the racing forum.
Let's keep this forum sensible !

Mystic Wind 17 May 16 23:14 Joined: 21 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 281 | Blogger: Mystic Wind's blog
Ante-post betting is no different to any other form of gambling - it's all about risk vs reward. The secret (as with any form of gambling - and that includes Stock Markets, derivatives, cards etc), is to gain an edge so that you can accurately assess risk and know more more than the guy setting the prices/reward - via research, effort & discipline.

There is no such thing as 'easy money'. There is, however, an opportunity to 'beat the bookie' by knowing more than him. Especially true when each firm can't afford to employ someone to exclusively cover your area of specialism. If (like me) you are also trying to hold-down a day job, then that means focus. Pick your area/specialism and stick to it - do not try to spread yourself too thinly (I'm as guilty as the next man - PGA Tour golf being my weak point).

I have been gambling for 30+ years and have made as many (more?) mistakes as the next man - the secret is to learn from them - else you're doomed.

far too sensible and sophisticated for this thread

Facts 19 May 16 00:59 Joined: 05 May 03 | Topic/replies: 21,489 | Blogger: Facts's blog
Some posts on this thread are more akin to the types you see on the racing forum.
Let's keep this forum sensible !

I have pointed this out to the OP and requested he takes his garbage over there

May 17, 2016 -- 11:14PM, Mystic Wind wrote:

Ante-post betting is no different to any other form of gambling - it's all about risk vs reward. The secret (as with any form of gambling - and that includes Stock Markets, derivatives, cards etc), is to gain an edge so that you can accurately assess risk and know more more than the guy setting the prices/reward - via research, effort & discipline. There is no such thing as 'easy money'. There is, however, an opportunity to 'beat the bookie' by knowing more than him. Especially true when each firm can't afford to employ someone to exclusively cover your area of specialism. If (like me) you are also trying to hold-down a day job, then that means focus. Pick your area/specialism and stick to it - do not try to spread yourself too thinly (I'm as guilty as the next man - PGA Tour golf being my weak point).I have been gambling for 30+ years and have made as many (more?) mistakes as the next man - the secret is to learn from them - else you're doomed.

Golf is moreso luck and having sound mental state.  Very few people would have any idea what a PGA player's mental state is pre match so golf is a total lottery, especially golf antepost.  The select people who would know would include Billy Walters, who has contacts galore in the golfing world so would have a slight edge.  Reading books on Moneyball by Michael Lewis , Scorecasting by Moskowitz ,The Smart money by Konik all got me into gambling. I am sure you must of read at least one of them, and you are correct in saying that the most successful gamblers stick to esoteric areas surrounded by other specialist gamblers contacts to form their own opinions.

Nothing wrong with ante post so long as you price in all of the risks to your selection. As we have seen recently, the chance of injury to a leading contender for Cheltenham or a Group race on the flat is around 5-10%, while changes in running plans by large owners makes it very risky to back their horses unless you are an insider. Vautour must still rankle with a lot of his supporters. I tend to stick to laying short prices (5/2 or less) 3 months or more ahead of an event and collect on non runners often enough to make a profit most years.

May 20, 2016 -- 7:37AM, sageform wrote:

Nothing wrong with ante post so long as you price in all of the risks to your selection. As we have seen recently, the chance of injury to a leading contender for Cheltenham or a Group race on the flat is around 5-10%, while changes in running plans by large owners makes it very risky to back their horses unless you are an insider. Vautour must still rankle with a lot of his supporters. I tend to stick to laying short prices (5/2 or less) 3 months or more ahead of an event and collect on non runners often enough to make a profit most years.

in short backing antepost for the grand national is just crazy esp in single figures. also anything under 2.0 short term or under 3.0 longterm like thistlecrack 2-1 world hurdle 2017 . some you get wrong like with cc but most you more than make back  from short priced flops like air force blue

Mar 23, 2016 -- 10:33AM, duncan idaho wrote:

OP has the game by the balls

cheers fella. some you win some you lose.

AP is a habit for me. Having a rotten time of it with recent bets.  Getting to the point i don't wannae back anyones horse incase i injure it. It's been that bad.

After this year's GN, I now wonder why people lay antepost these days.

A year ago (June 6th actually), prices on here for the 10 shortest price horses in the race were:

Many Clouds 25-26
The Druids Nephew 28-29
Goonyella 32-34
Silviniaco Conti 32-36
Saint Are 36-38
Shutthefrontdoor 38-40
Gallant Oscar 38-42
Thunder And Roses 38-44
Le Reve 40-46
Smad Place 50-55

Of these, Smad Place wasn't entered, Thunder and Roses scratched, Le Reve drifted out to 65-70 at the close of the market; Gallant Oscar had shortened to 34-36; and all of the other six shortened dramatically.

So the antepost markets don't always go the layers way!

Not if you lay them to win only with no winner from that list,...the same can be applied to the current Gold Cup probables ie those that took part this year; I find it difficult to find the winner unless from a new entry eg Vroum Vroum Mag, Killultgh Vic or Bristol De Mai, with Don Cossack unlikely to be competitive post his tendon injury, if he makes the line up.

May 21, 2016 -- 8:35AM, Rydal wrote:

After this year's GN, I now wonder why people lay antepost these days.A year ago (June 6th actually), prices on here for the 10 shortest price horses in the race were:Many Clouds 25-26The Druids Nephew 28-29Goonyella 32-34Silviniaco Conti 32-36Saint Are 36-38Shutthefrontdoor 38-40Gallant Oscar 38-42Thunder And Roses 38-44Le Reve 40-46Smad Place 50-55Of these, Smad Place wasn't entered, Thunder and Roses scratched, Le Reve drifted out to 65-70 at the close of the market; Gallant Oscar had shortened to 34-36; and all of the other six shortened dramatically.So the antepost markets don't always go the layers way!

wouldn't lay anything above 3-1. Got massively burnt once this year  on antepost by laying California Chrome at 9-4. Other than that been doing well