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betilyerded
22 Feb 16 12:50
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Date Joined: 03 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 817 | Blogger: betilyerded's blog
5 day decs just published so worth having a look now. I have 2 speculative punts at prices to throw into the mix

Thomas Brown is first up. Harry Fry won this with a lightly raced novice a few years back and tries to do so again with this one. Both had run three times over fences and both got into the race off a mark of 140. I think it would be fair to say, however, that Thomas Brown is more highly regarded of the 2, and given that Opening Batsman only acheived a hurdles rating of 129 whereas Thomas Brown was rated 145 bears that out.
he didnt overly impress at Doncaster last time out but had previously put up two good performances at Ascot and may possibly be suited by going that way around over fences. Hopefully Fehily will be reunited on Saturday and at this stage feel 16-1 at BF sportsbook and 365 is fair enough.

The other one at a bigger price is Viva Steve at 33-1. he's only 1 from 10 over fences but has finished 2nd 5 times, just as he did behind national fancy The Last Samuarai over C&D at Christmas. he jumped well that day and just bumped into one. I think you can forgive his run next time back in trip on heavy ground at Cheltenham and I think represents decent e/w value.
Interestingly Channon and Radford also had Knock House entered who would have been a player but obviously other targets await that horse (i.e. the 3 mile handicap at Cheltenham!) and so Viva Steve flies the flag for them here.

Should be a good race. Good luck all.
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Report betilyerded February 22, 2016 1:56 PM GMT
Ok. In the time it took to post that Thomas Browns price changed to best priced 12-1 so we will go with that - I missed the 16's anyway!!
Report corporal February 22, 2016 3:22 PM GMT
Should be a good race this one. I've backed Viva Steve and Opening Batsman for this both EW at 33s and 25s respectively. Very much the same rationale on Viva Steve - thought he traveled like the winner over C&D at Christmas only to be outstayed.

I think I read something months ago that this might have been the season's target for Opening Batsman, he's a previous winner of the race and now back down to a winning mark. He might just appreciate slightly better ground which he might just get given the forecast for the week. I looked hard at his stablemate Thomas Brown, just felt that he might be better suited to small fields, given how he disappointed at the festival last March.
Report unclepuncle February 22, 2016 5:29 PM GMT
Really fancy Champagne West -  obviously needs to avoid the mistakes of his last two starts though.
Report roobuck February 22, 2016 7:02 PM GMT
Uncle I'd like him for 3 miler on opening day, and fear this may be a prep? But if up for it and as you says jumps, will be hard to beat
Report roobuck February 22, 2016 7:44 PM GMT
And FWIW though again may be a warm up, couldn't resist a nibble on Hadrian's Approach at 20s

Again always prone to making a clanger, and obv been off for a while, but back down to Whitbread winning mark and will appreciate the better ground.NJH coming into form and traditionally loves having winners at the track.

Gotta say also like Viva Steve as well.

GL all
Report CVByrne February 23, 2016 9:32 PM GMT
what **** tipster put up Theatre Guide. pissed as **** off with the Arctic Fire news then see 16/1 has become 10/1 today on my selection before I've backed him.
Report sintonian February 23, 2016 9:47 PM GMT
why didn't you back him when you saw he was 16/1?
Report Can't Catch Me February 23, 2016 9:50 PM GMT
Not really the **** tipsters fault he put a tip up either.
Report sintonian February 23, 2016 10:12 PM GMT
tbh, I considered backing him last night at 14/1 but couldn't get out of my mind he's been pumped long margins this season so cannot see him winning, but you can certainly make a case for him off his current mark especially when a lot of the others look poorly handicapped. I left it, and have now missed the price. Just the way it goes.

Same with Shotgun Paddy in the Eider, half fancied him, posted on the thread when he was 16/1, didn't back him and he's now 10's.
Report racingguru February 24, 2016 1:45 AM GMT
Sorry it was me and others responsible for Theatre Guide 14 into 10's. Joint Top on RPR (top on my ratings), course winner, with a jockey booked - 14's and 12's - 1/4 1,2,3,4 - just way too big.

Be pleased with a place but you never know might get lucky.
Report Facts February 24, 2016 10:02 AM GMT
^ I move prices Cry
Report Giddy February 24, 2016 3:16 PM GMT
Following the OP in with Thomas Brown. His run behind Le Mercury is look a strong piece of form to me after that horse ran really well in defeat
in last weeks Reynoldstown. He jumps like a natural and still improving IMO. Reckon Virak can run well off top weight and wouldn't dismiss The Druids Nephew if he came back to some sort of form but sticking with Thomas Brown
I backed Opening Batsman round here 2 runs ago and he look the winner turning in,and was trading odds on, but he seemed not to get home. They dropped him back to 2.5 miles on his next run and ran dismally, was on again big style. Not sure if he hasn't lost his love of the game. Defo wont be backing him in this, so you can go in again Corporal with Impunity
Good luck all
Report tony2914 February 24, 2016 4:48 PM GMT
Does anybody know why tom obrien is down to ride champagne west and dicky Johnson is riding roc dapasis for tome George ?  very strange !
Report DECALEC February 24, 2016 6:23 PM GMT
1 possibility could be that he has chosen V VIC in Ryanair and maybe if this passes the test could be joining them with T.o'B on board
Report IDKW February 25, 2016 9:38 AM GMT
Can't really see beyond the progressive Ziga Boy in this.
The booking of Tom Bellamy can be seen as a positive imo ( 2/3 when riding, and handy 3lb allowance ), and it's entirely possible he'll be allowed to bowl along in front at his own pace in much the same way as last twice.
Can't see 16 lining up here and so this morning looks the time to get on EW.
Report IDKW February 25, 2016 1:11 PM GMT
16 declared..Shocked
Report unclepuncle February 25, 2016 3:04 PM GMT
The Johnson / O'Brien thing is definitely a strange one - surely Dickie would want to be on the 5/1 fav and not as 20/1 poke.
Because of that I still haven't pulled the trigger on CW yet.Confused
Report dunlaying February 25, 2016 3:32 PM GMT
I have backed Theatre Guide at 16/1 and fear Champagne West but , as the market matures, the value could well be with Rocky Creek.
Since he won the race last year he has had about five races. Two at Aintree, easily forgotten, one where he was pulled up behind a stablemate and one at Newbury the weekend before the National weights were published. In the other race he was a respectable second to Don Cossack.

He is 20/1 and drifting. It would be no surprise to see him run a big race as he is now down to a fair rating. If he touches 25/1 I will add him to my portfolio.
Report ReaseHeath February 25, 2016 3:40 PM GMT
Decalec probably has it right but...

My conspiracy theory is that Dickie chose Village Vic over CW and beat him into 2nd in the December handicap having got down to 10st to do so.He then got back on him at as hot favourite at Cheltenham for the handicap on trials day where the pair blundered their chance away at the eighth. Prior to that the pair fell at Sandown last Jan after which CW was out for the season. So Dickie's last 2 efforts on CW are FP (in fairness he's also won on him 4 times) and Tom O'Brien's record is 2122 and from the owner's perspective the last of those 2s might have been a 1 if they had n't been beaten by a  horse from the same stable partnered by Dickie.

From what I read Mr. Brookhouse is one of the more proactive owners - used to train himself I believe and recently removed his horses from the Pipe yard, so I just wonder whether he might have requested that Tom O'Brien rides.

No criticism intended of either jockey, the horse or the owner and I might be way off but it seems like a plausible explanation.
Report sintonian February 25, 2016 8:05 PM GMT
Decided to bite the bullet and back Theatre Guide even at the much less tempting 8/1. Off 139 against a lot of horse going up in the weights I cannot leave him unbacked. He'll have no excuses on Saturday. The one big concern is that Alex Hammond has tipped him.

Re Champagne West...given that it was Johnson's fault he nearly fell last time out I wouldn't be surprised if the trainer or owner felt a change of jock was needed. Dickie definitely made a mess of things last time when he tried going between horse right before the fence. Caused the horse to be unsighted hence the shuddering blunder. Tom O'brien always a good booking in a big race for Hobbs. My concern would be this is a totally different race to the last one ... further, different track, and needs to overcome a PU last time.
Report Autocue February 25, 2016 9:00 PM GMT
I like Theatre Guide and have had a bet to try and recoup losses from my still born Grand National project, but I have doubts about him in this race as I think Kempton might be a bit sharp. My main selection is Ziga boy as he looks progressive and uncomplicated.
Report unclepuncle February 26, 2016 6:44 PM GMT
Have had to go in on Campagne West @ 13/2 - 3pt win, 2 pt place.
Report FELTFAIR February 27, 2016 9:38 AM GMT
Had six on the short list but can`t back them all so I have backed Ruben Cotter and Champagne West each way.
Report nocturnal February 27, 2016 12:14 PM GMT
A proper handicap with the weight differential top to bottom.
Plenty of sleepers lower down,and plenty with festival entries.
Nicholls done well recently in this race,rocky has first time headgear,rueben cotter has a long break to overcome.

Virak is the one I like,the claim brings him down a little,tough horse who has ran well in defeat this season.Entered in the fest day 1 h,cap,not sure he will take that entry up,hoping today is the target at around 16/1.

Theatre guide does look on a nice mark,neck on the line I think they might be keeping him for cheltenham h,cap above,a race they won in 2014 with golden chieftan,plenty guesswork for a few of these.

GL ALL
Report nocturnal February 27, 2016 12:14 PM GMT
A proper handicap with the weight differential top to bottom.
Plenty of sleepers lower down,and plenty with festival entries.
Nicholls done well recently in this race,rocky has first time headgear,rueben cotter has a long break to overcome.

Virak is the one I like,the claim brings him down a little,tough horse who has ran well in defeat this season.Entered in the fest day 1 h,cap,not sure he will take that entry up,hoping today is the target at around 16/1.

Theatre guide does look on a nice mark,neck on the line I think they might be keeping him for cheltenham h,cap above,a race they won in 2014 with golden chieftan,plenty guesswork for a few of these.

GL ALL
Report IrisDeBalme February 27, 2016 12:32 PM GMT
ROCS DAPSIS 20/1 interests me considering Johnson record in the race merits respect. Not sure why he is not on Champagne West surprises me so at the price will take chance on him...

The other I like is ROCKY CREEK they're sharpening him up for this race and 20/1 good price

Good luck!
Report Giddy February 27, 2016 5:29 PM GMT
Winner won impressively

Well done backers
Report betilyerded February 27, 2016 5:54 PM GMT
Well done all those who gave Theatre Guide a big shout - and theres plenty of you. I thought 3m round Kempton on quicker ground would be far too sharp but clearly that was ballcocks.

Getting a bit miffed with getting the big prices and then having things go wrong though I did have a few concerns about Thomas Browns jumping as mentioned on opening post and that his undoing. Hopefully luck will change for Cheltenham but again, big reeeespect for Theatre Guide backers.
Report nocturnal February 27, 2016 6:01 PM GMT
WP Winners......won well
Report Autocue February 27, 2016 7:52 PM GMT
I think the ground in this better class of race did for Thomas Brown. He has a marked rounded action and it was noticeable last time out at Donny how often he was changing his leading leg on good to soft. He wants soft or heavy to show his best imo.
Report Facts February 27, 2016 7:55 PM GMT
Well done winners. He sluiced up !
Report unclepuncle February 27, 2016 8:23 PM GMT
Well done winners.

CW just can't jump.Cry
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