Mid Term

However this week I decided to check out whether I was on a leap of faith or in the know.
So here is what I learnt.

The good news is he has 4 legs!
The bad news is that he is a long way from having the gun put to his head.
So those of you backing him now at 12/1 or under are really doing so as a leap of faith.

Sure he maybe the next wonder horse but the fact is no one knows.
As Teddy Grimthorpe says you can't put a saddle on a pedigree!

So my advice is as follows:
He has the pedigree
He has won his maiden
He could be anything
He is really not value at anything less than 20/1
Good luck if you are backing below because you are doing it on hope and not because anyone knows

Midterm

That is the case. same with virtually all lightly raced purple breeds

Cant really imagine Stouty wont be trying all out for The Derby...Anything under 14/1 agree not really worth bothering with.

Why would the trainer 'put a gun to his head' in Mid February

Fair to say someone's been backing it...33/1 straight after maiden win, as low as 8/1 with bookies now

A very interesting horse. Would be nice to see Stoute with another Derby winner.

Most refreshing thing about the top of current AP list is it is devoid of AOB horses. I'm guessing that's why Midterm is seemingly so short. I mean, he's a once raced maiden winner

I think he's been gambled in recent weeks?

The horse would probably have gone to Cecil had he been around given the breeding.

So far so good
Time was impressive too.
Remaining hopeful...

All the money has dried up for this one. Looks ominous. Here we go again......

The euphoria will start again nearer the next trial eg The Dante or the Chester Vase.

Time nothing special on my figures.

Howellsy

You serious? That was one of the impressive parts. 5 races run over the same trip on the day and by far the fastest?

Midterm and Foundation over Us Army Ranger (UAR) for me in the Derby with UAR a big layer in the Leger given its breeding provided UAR has credited himself well in the Derby prior.

Market has been fairly weak the last few days for Midterm, knowing my luck with ante-post betting this year not a good sign. Not sure why otherwise that people would be wanting to lay odds similar to those available before the trial at Sandown.

x20, I never joke about speed figures! The problem on the day was finding a reliable marker race to compare it with. The fact that it was a good deal quicker than the group 3 over the same trip might appear auspicious, but the concluding handicap was run in a similar time to the group 3, so my conclusion is that there were a lot of slow run races over the trip on the day. I've used the Sandown mile as my marker race as I feel that was run at a decent gallop.  I've given Midterm a figure around a stone below what Jack Hobbs achieved on the same card last year. Now this does not mean I'm dissing the horse. He could be anything, and I hope he proves top notch. But for me he's done nothing on the clock yet. Of course, my figure could easily be wrong but I suspect it's not far off.

Howellsy I get you are serious about time figures
In 2015 Jack Hobbs recorded a time of 2m 10.61 on ground described as good. I get he won winding down but he also carried 2lbs less than Midterm.
In 2016 Midterm recorded a time of 2m 11.11 on ground described as good to soft. Midterm also ran over 29yds further than advertised.

Racing Post recorded a TS of 93 for JH and 96 for Midterm

Sorry but what is there not to like about the speed figure that Midterm put up?

For his first run this season (Midterm) I liked the way he went about things, poss on ground not ideal for him, think he will be a better horse on faster ground myself. Would imagine that Yorks Dante will be his next port of call, hopefully by then the ground will be better.

Midterm is York Dante bound according to trainer, and so is Foundation according to Dettori on Morning Line whereas Us Army Ranger is heading for the Chester Vase for more eduction.

I wonder who will ride Midterm in the Dante?

Ryan Moore looks like being required for Ballydoyle, SMS occasionally uses Dettori but he is likely to be riding Foundation at York. Smullen has ridden for him in the past and should be available for the Dante but possibly not the Derby if Tirmizi impresses in the Derrinstown tomorrow.

These things have a habit of working themselves out but there is a potential issue looming

At the moment P Smullen is down to ride in The Dante; if winning convincingly next thursday one can expect price to be les than 2/1 I reckon.

Only happens to the good ones...

Ok so that I am not seen as after timing let me continue
When I was fortunate enough to have seen around Midterm I was assured at the time that Ulysses was really the better of the two! Preferring what I had seen at the racecourse to gallops work I suitably ignored!
Whether he is good enough to win the Derby we will all have found out about this time next week.
I have had a little of the 25/1 after the 8 length win but still wish it was midterm we were cheering on.

The flak will be on its way.

If Ulysses wins the Derby I'd walk to the next three Epsom Derby!

Impossible why would you want to do that. Are you local?

Yes, in Cheam, about 3 miles from the track.

Not a big risk then!
Not like whoever it was who said he would present a programme in his boxers if Leicester won the league!

imp123 needs to up the risk levels, like doing a 1m 4f streak round epsom but with his underpants on

Oh no, maybe I'll stand by the bend in case WOD decides to take the scenic route early with/out Dettori.