Horse Antepost
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I've been a follower of the James Ewart stable for some time now and i have some views on the performance of his stable over the past 10 years which i believes gives me some insight into training styles and the trainers outlook.
He is by far my most profitable stable that i follow and i think there is a lot to come from the stable in the next few years. Its been a slow start but i think he is just starting to reap the rewards from the hard work that he and his family have put into the NH scene in the North
Now i could really get into this post and could almost write an a biography on his racing career so far but i wont ....as i could go on forever , but for a brief insight here is a link that James has on his website
http://www.jamesewartracing.com/james/james-ewart.html
One thing ive noticed over the past few years is that the trainer does come across to me as being conservative and not prone to punch above his weight .......so when i see his decision of entering Aristo in the Champion Hurdle it makes me take notice of how much the trainer believes in the capability and scope of the horse....i dont think this is just an of the cuff experience to get publicity as its not the trainers style.
In my opinion I really dont think the horse has been ridden to its best in any of its last 3 races even though he has won them easily .....and i think he could go even quicker from the front if made more use of in a graded race.
I think the Ewart stable have believed that they have a future champion in their yard since mid 2015 ... be it over hurdles or over fences one day - and i think that the horse is being patiently campaigned to one day achieve that goal.
Now im not entirely in support with how they have been playing in these hcaps...... but i see that as the way the trainer runs his horses being his conservative nature , James Ewart has always played down the performance of the horse after all of its wins since October and its starting to get a bit silly to down play the horses wins because of the lack of competition when he is winning easily and clearly being given an easy ride and stop starting with breathers.
If he runs in this years Champion Hurdle i do believe is that he has improvement and scope to beat 90% of the 19 horses entered in the champion hurdle as of today. If the horse was trained by Mullins or Nichols the horse would be no 100/1 shot IMO and would be closer to a 33/1 shot or even shorter given the scope of the animal.
If i was the trainer i would go straight to the champion and let the horse go flat out rather than stop starting in front as they have been doing since October .... i think he would disturb Faugheen's and Nicholas Canyon' s running style.
Would Cheltenham suit the horse? is he better on a flat track ? ....who knows given how is being run !
Whatever happens or wherever he goes in the future either this year or next year , im firmly of the view that one day the horse will win a grade 1 event over hurdles or fences....its just a matter of time in my opinion.
He is by far my most profitable stable that i follow and i think there is a lot to come from the stable in the next few years. Its been a slow start but i think he is just starting to reap the rewards from the hard work that he and his family have put into the NH scene in the North
Now i could really get into this post and could almost write an a biography on his racing career so far but i wont ....as i could go on forever , but for a brief insight here is a link that James has on his website
http://www.jamesewartracing.com/james/james-ewart.html
One thing ive noticed over the past few years is that the trainer does come across to me as being conservative and not prone to punch above his weight .......so when i see his decision of entering Aristo in the Champion Hurdle it makes me take notice of how much the trainer believes in the capability and scope of the horse....i dont think this is just an of the cuff experience to get publicity as its not the trainers style.
In my opinion I really dont think the horse has been ridden to its best in any of its last 3 races even though he has won them easily .....and i think he could go even quicker from the front if made more use of in a graded race.
I think the Ewart stable have believed that they have a future champion in their yard since mid 2015 ... be it over hurdles or over fences one day - and i think that the horse is being patiently campaigned to one day achieve that goal.
Now im not entirely in support with how they have been playing in these hcaps...... but i see that as the way the trainer runs his horses being his conservative nature , James Ewart has always played down the performance of the horse after all of its wins since October and its starting to get a bit silly to down play the horses wins because of the lack of competition when he is winning easily and clearly being given an easy ride and stop starting with breathers.
If he runs in this years Champion Hurdle i do believe is that he has improvement and scope to beat 90% of the 19 horses entered in the champion hurdle as of today. If the horse was trained by Mullins or Nichols the horse would be no 100/1 shot IMO and would be closer to a 33/1 shot or even shorter given the scope of the animal.
If i was the trainer i would go straight to the champion and let the horse go flat out rather than stop starting in front as they have been doing since October .... i think he would disturb Faugheen's and Nicholas Canyon' s running style.
Would Cheltenham suit the horse? is he better on a flat track ? ....who knows given how is being run !
Whatever happens or wherever he goes in the future either this year or next year , im firmly of the view that one day the horse will win a grade 1 event over hurdles or fences....its just a matter of time in my opinion.
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Well they've certainly not got to the bottom of him yet, the improvement in his mark has been stratospheric and the way he won the last day was almost contemptuous.
Is he capable of a Make a Stand type performance? Straight out of handicaps and blazing away in front? I'm not so sure, but it's not an expensive way to find out and the division on the whole (Faugheen aside) doesn't feel vintage at the moment. I've got 66/1 e/w NRNB. |
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I agree, ive taken the 100/1 ew NRNB with one bookmaker .
Ewart is saying that he is going to run him at musselburgh on the 7th February....i personally cannot see what that can achieve if they think the horse is good enough to run in a champion hurdle. Why run the risk of knackering the horse out or even getting him injured This is what has always concerned me about the trainers mindset.....he comes across as being pessimistic which i think can only hinder his professionalism with this horse .He may well know what he has got on his hands as being far more qualified in being a judge in that respect....but if he doesn't and is playing it by ear then he trainer needs to realise that he is a good judge and a lot more learned then he thinks he is. If they think he is possibly good enough then act like it ! Im quite sure that if the horse was with another trainer he could have possible already won a graded event |
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Really good post Rozel. And will watch the horse more closely after reading it.
But Im afraid I couldnt take him seriously in a CH... his form amounts to very, very little imo. There must be better targets for the horse if they lower his targets slightly? Im all for giving things a go, but this is a monumental leap, and it could really have a negative effect on the horse in the long term. |
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Living in the Borders I have followed this ones progress with interest, and it's great to see him entered. I think they will run him, Ewart has been desperate for a festival runner for years now. He seems a diferent horse since they started running him from the front, and there may yet be more to come. I have to agree with CCM though, it's a massive step up for him, he needs to find another 20lbs or so, and some unknowns; will he get/need an uncontested lead? can he cruise around at champion hurdle pace? Can he handle the track? 100/1 to find out is fair enough.
I will be delighted to see him run however, along with Seeyouatmidnight showcasing the Borders trainers. |
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I do agree too, maybe cheltenham wouldnt suit , im not confident.
Maybe aintree as the trainer has had a couple of winners there in the past. I think the horse could be a champion next year over fences....very exciting horse. |
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Great post mate.
The Champion Hurdle traditionally will have 9, 10 or 11 runners. Of the 19 entries Aristo probably has the clear beating of 3 or 4 of them. Plus Camping Ground is World Hurdle bound + Nichols Canyon has an entry. It's also unlikely that Nicky Henderson will have all his five entries line up on the day. If Aristo was allowed to run by Ewart and his owner, and given a bold run, out of trouble from the front as you suggest, the 100/1 each way could be value..(in say a nine runner race )? , which also given the pace it's run at normally has a faller or two. Yes Mullins three look strong, but your correct Ewart should let Aristo take its chance. |
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Interesting stuff.
I was hoping he might get an entry in the Haydock race on Saturday, and he would surely have had a serious chance. But no. |
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Entered in the Betfair hurdle Newbury....long way to come,big pot and higher rated horses to assess him?
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i think the trainer wants decent ground for the horse, hence why the scottish champion is a realistic aim and the betfair hurdle and other races have been dismissed...
i'd stick to realistic aims myself but he will carry plenty of weight in any chosen targets now anyway...i'd say he is going to become increasingly difficult to place with his liking for better ground and so little options available from his current mark, it is a shame his mark is now gone as some nice races like the scottish champion and swinton hurdle might of been within range off of lower marks but 150 is just going to be tough for him...he is a nice horse |
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I think he better than the Betfair Hurdle which is another HCAP , i think he is way above that class of that race.
If the trainer has to keep him fit by having another run then so be it ...but i cant see why that would be giving the scope of the horse . Okay give a spin at musselburgh but dont give him a race ...save it for the Champion Hurdle ....who would ride it though ? Would he still put up the conditional Dale Irving ? would be a brave decision imo If i was the owner im afraid id have to replace him because of the lack of his Cheltenham experience ....but i dont think thats how their stable flows which is their ideals. I honestly think the Jockey should step aside himself on its first grade 1 event ...he has been injured recently too. |
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I think the horse will be running of a mark which will exceed 160 by the end of April
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I was gonna say that mate if he was mine I'd be lining up a Tom Scu or a Noel Fehily or another available top jockey if they decide to go for the Champion Hurdle which undoubtedly will cut up a bit. But as u say the stable might stay loyal to the currently injured Irving.
For me if he's really say a 160 horse....he could be in the first five. Ewart should go for it. He might not get the chance again to be in the mix in a Champion Hurdle. |
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He's a similar contender to Old Guard.
Nicholls won't be scared to have a go in the race & neither should Ewart. One is 40/1 one is 100/1. Similar profiles but one unfashionable stable |
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That was my thinking. Because he wins in such a casual fashion, I'd be confident that he will end up a 160 horse, it's not a huge leap to then be a 163-165 horse and that puts you on the premises of a place in a champion hurdle. They're not machines and if anything were to happen to Faugheen, then he is one of a large bunch of horses that you wouldn't be surprised to see contesting the win.
If he does go for the Betfair, that would tell us an awful lot more, as there will no doubt be some Champion/Supreme type horses lurking in there off soft marks (I hear that Hobbs thinks an awful lot of War Sound and has kept him of the track to protect his mark for the race, before a Champion Hurdle entry - then there is the more obvious Modus), a run in that off 150 would give a clear indication of his ability. Anyway, as stated earlier, at the odds.... Perhaps a forum plunge? |
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Another HCAP hurdle for Aristo ??? Its getting ridiculous! Aristo is running off a mark of 150 which could clearly go up to 160 , and he is possibly running him in another hcap!
I would love to know what the discussions with the owners entailed ! "well we just give him another run in a hcap....lets just hope he comes home fine and we'll think about it after that"! i dont get it at all ! 15:00 Musselburgh 7 Feb 2016 Scottish County Hurdle (a Handicap Race) (Class 1) Racecard slife: http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racecards/07-02-2016/musselburgh/racecard/710841/scottish-county-hurdle-a-handicap-race Racecard ATR : http://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Musselburgh/07-February-2016/1500 If Aristo lines up on Sunday then i believe it justifies my comments of how pessimistic the trainer is in his mindset - Brick Red ( who won this hacap in 2013 ) has been the highest rated horse to win the race off a mark of 137 and then came 2nd in a grade 2 hurdle at kempton later that month off 11st 12lb off a mark of 146. Aristo is in a completely other sphere - and should not be running in the race imo , and is defently a 155-160 horse with relevant ease Scottish County Hcap Hurdle past winners YEAR HORSE AGE WGT LTO FORM RAN OR SP 2015 Retrieve (AUS) (D) 8g 10-0 203 46-12 11 120 13/2 2014 Clever Cookie (CD) 6g 10-0 16 1-1221 10 122 5/1 (2f) 2013 Brick Red (D) 6g 11-12 17 176611 10 137 5/2 (f) 2012 Stormy Weather (Fr) (D)6g 10-5 35 9-64621 13 118 13/2 2011 Hunterview (D) 5g 11-3 30 110003 13 130 11/4 (f) 2010 Eradicate (Ire) 6g 10-13 300 241222 12 129 9/2 (2f) 2009 European Dream (Ire) 6g 11-0 15 001705 14 125 12/1 2008 Astarador (Fr) 6g 11-4 29 711327 7 130 2/1 (2f) 2007 Forthright 6g 10-0 48 213572 15 111 5/1 (2f) 2006 Crow Wood (D) 7g 11-4 86 200134 17 124 9/2 (2f) 2005 Another Dude (Ire) 8g 11-12 62 1P33FF 14 120 14/1 2004 Friedhelmo (GER) 8g 11-4 15 UP5544 16 112 15/2 2003 Danimas (Ire) 6g 10-0 13 900847 10 96 7/1 |
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If Aristo runs this Sunday , and falls and gets injured whilst leading , then in my opinion it would be absolutely criminal on the trainers part.
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spelling correction . aghhh definitely not defently
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Rozel...I know what your saying...not another handicap. But maybe the trainer sees the Musselburgh race as a smaller field possible better prep race than the Newbury one was gonna be....before finishing 2nd in the champion
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Will be an interesting race tomorrow - im praying that Aristo destroys the field in some style.
The only negative for me is the jockey - if Diarmuid O'Regan rides him with the same style and tactics as he did on new years day then i think it could be where his winning streak comes to an end. Aristo will need to be ridden more rigorously from as far back as 3f out in my opinion - he needs to burn them off and get that gap more than his past races...if he does so then i believe his reletless gallopong style will make it easier to holf off the challenges. only ones that concern me is the Henderson trained Days of Heaven, and the Pipe runner Mango Cap. Come on Aristo ! Destroy them ! |
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I reckon he will, or at least you be able to bail out at one point ?
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well ive gone in pretty big for the champion hurdle at 100/1 NRNB - His bubble may be burst tomorrow but i can live in hope that he wins like a freak !
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Not sure going off at 5f pace helped today.
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bubble burst - oh well a chasing career beckons
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ground , weight , and the running style was a combination toomuch too overcome- i think they said the going this morning was goog, good to soft in places - when in fact its very soft.
it will be interesting to see the time it was run in. |
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It was a bold shout Rozel, and I followed you in with a fiver at big odds. Not to be though, I see he was scratched today. Hopefully you'll get a few quid off him later in the season.
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Yes, a big shame, as I too was aboard. I agree that that wasn't his running, but I still think I may have over-rated his potential.
I'll be keeping an eye on him for the future though. |
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agree and mirror your thoughts Desmond.
The jockey is saying the horse shied away from rival jockey's whip but i dont think it would have made a difference.....but everything was against him with that ground and those front running tactics/ I would like to see what would happen if they held him up - but it may just not be his style. They may run him at at Ayr in April , but if i was the trainer id put him away and start preparing for a chasing career towards the end of the year. |