Horse Antepost
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As MOUNTAINOUS has shown in the Welsh National, that an ideal weight similar to their winning mark they won few years back is doable
The same can be said for RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE - who I feel has shown his sparkle in the last 2 runs. He won the race 2 years ago in good fashion and feel a repeat is on the cards. Venetia Williams has to be respected and this horse on 10-5 is the first port of call. 12/1 is generous.
Good luck
As MOUNTAINOUS has shown in the Welsh National, that an ideal weight similar to their winning mark they won few years back is doable
The same can be said for RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE - who I feel has shown his sparkle in the last 2 runs. He won the race 2 years ago in good fashion and feel a repeat is on the cards. Venetia Williams has to be respected and this horse on 10-5 is the first port of call. 12/1 is generous.
Good luck
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I also like RDB and De Kerry Man of interest.
But if Venetia has him in good form, Houblon des Obeaux could be absolutely thrown in. Also 12s, very fair |
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Very tricky looking Handicap. Just the sort I really like. Quite a few possibilities, including Vivaldi Collonges and Spooky Dooky, but will reduce to one selection. But not betting yet - going to be withdrawals and not risking it atm.
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Looking forward to this meeting on Saturday. We might even get some form lines with Irish novices if Mullins and Elliot bring some over. The staying handicap looks very open until we know the overnight decs.
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Only 15 declared so those of us that availed antepost prices will be happy in the knowledge we have 4 places
 Though looking at these posts you wont be happy to know there is no Spooky Dooky, Doing Fine or Audacious plan of those that were near the top of the antepost market and matched on here according to oddschecker |
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some of the bookies will go four places even though there's only 15 runners on Saturday morning - particularly as it's the feature race and it's a quiet Saturday comparatively - H1lls and 356 been known to hold the 4 places even if there's a non runner though they won't if it becomes a 13 runner race obviously.
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STS - another classic after timing post. And still no hint of what you may have backed though obviously you were clever enough not to back one that not declared and you've got 4 places.
No doubt we will hear all about it if one of yours passes the post 1st and the fantastic price you got |
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STS is constantly searching for adulation, which is probably hard to come by on here.
His Cheltenham ramblings a few years ago made me laugh, which is hard to do. Anyway, keep fighting the good fight. |
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RP had a headline about Elliot having 5 horses in the race including the top weight - quite laughable that none turned up considering couple had jockeys booked, but still annoying so many horses came out particularly from the top of the handicap - unfortunately pushing the weights up, now Rigadin De Beauchene is 8lb higher - which is still do-able but task made much harder.
Think the top weights may find one too good - as usual silly prices for Sego Success ...Im sure common sense will prevail Saturday morning and push will start. Will look again then. |
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Midnight Prayer fits my criteria - just as did in the Welsh National. A non starter for that race , I hope he gets to take his chance in this. 7/1 NRNB
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roobuck + borntowin
 MWAH!!! It's an ambition of mine to get on that thread without posting an actual horses name! I mean, it is a joke thread right? A thread that is only there so that people like you can have an excuse to be like 'I can't believe that guy didn't post that before the race so that we could have backed it  ' in an angry p!$$ed off and frustrated that you didn't sort of way!!I back quite a few in a lot of big field handicaps, its the way i go and i make good profit doing it, so what! Why be jealous, surely use are old enough by now not to be  Of my selections of the Warwick Chase, i backed one non runner, which is average for me antepost. Vivaldi 8/1, RDB 12/1, HDO 12/1, DKM 14/1 i backed that are runners, my nonner is Doing Fine. But am above this level didn't feel the need to post such. I've left myself wiggle room to back maybe 2 or 3 more if i wished i could almost back the field at well under 90% underround giving a potential 10% overall profit with the only gamble being the total rag winning, thus reversing what traditional bookmakers do. I am quite happy thank you  |
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STS think they just stating you aftertiming mate, re Killutagh Vic got 14s now 7s, no mention you backed it before today?
On Cheltenham thread, anyways good luck and enjoy festival not too long now! |
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I think Foxbridge is the value bet of the race, low weight , never been beaten when running on heavy, 16-1 seems more than fair.
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STS think they just stating you aftertiming mate, re Killutagh Vic got 14s now 7s, no mention you backed it before today? On Cheltenham thread, anyways good luck and enjoy festival not too long now! So his bet there was prompted by a 'tipster' and got up early to back RTR cos PW tipped him. Personally think he's a compulsive or fantasy gambler, possibly both. Not jealous at all STS. My thoughts on race, which is what these threads are for, is that HDO has great chance at the weight and is my main bet. Very small savers on other two mentioned. But HDO by far and away main bet and listed on NH AP thread. My profit or otherwise will be there for you to see |
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If all of the fences are included, jumping ability will play a big part so I am going to be watching a few videos of the horses I like to see how they jump on soft/heavy ground. Midnight Prayer is my initial thought but he has not had much racing for a while.
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Well you get me wrong roobuck, im not a fantasy bettor nor am i an all out follow pw religiously type of bettor. RTR is a horse that was on my radar for a while, same as it seems quite a few on here. The fact that he may go ryanair and that hes not due out till at least the end of the month thus not giving the books excuse to shorten him just yet was allowing me to concentrate on other races for now where there are runners about to see an outing and maybe shorten up, i.e Kill' Vic which was incidentally a punt i made based on what i read on this forum on Sunday/Mon night/Morn'! The fact that PW put him up made me have to sit at computer and wait for b365 to put it back to the pw price of 16s.
Anyways this is off topic now and done to death. I am keen on whatever looks overpriced tomorrow morning now for this race. Hoping for Midnight prayer 8s or 9s please, Foxbridge is 16s or 20s would be worth a stake and if Red Devil Lads gets to 22s or 25s (he was 16s for Welsh National) then he's worth a punt! Of course have to be careful, a couple firms may well go 4 places tomorrow morning, but will they offer good prices |
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One things for sure, people need to be aware that if taking a price now with bills, korals, baldys, botway or rave bets
PETE THE FEAT run yesterday and is unlikely to run tomorrow, by taking a price with any of them firms now will incur a 5p rule 4 if said horse is pulled out which is expected. Just been mentioned on ATR hope this helps |
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Yep, it helps cos probably means less chance of 4 places in the morning.
I like Foxbridge too and will probably just back him - HDO's form hints that the trip might be an issue, King has previously suggested Sego Success might not want bottomless ground, I'm put off Midnight Prayer on the basis that he missed the Welsh National because he was coughing and this will hardly be less of a test just a week later - What A Good Night's form on heavy going does n't convince either - of the ones near the top off the market RDB and Vivaldi Collonges look the most solid - and even then RDB is 11 lbs higher than when he won the race 3 years ago and VC has gone up 8lbs for winning what looks a weakish race. |
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King is a slippery customer. Often misleads.
If MP was really coughing - would he running it one week later ? I don't think so. |
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* be
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Cheers Al, I was awaiting MP in the Welsh National for an antepost treble
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Foxbridge at 14/1 in the morning for me, should be beating the market by at least a point
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You need to factor in that Segal has put up this horse. !!
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That means will be beating the market by more than a point then facts, that means i put a little more on that usual!
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I can't see RDB having an easy time of it up front in this. Plenty of front runners including De Kerry Man who doesn't mind being just off the pace
Only 8 and seems to be improving and off bottom weight think he has every chance |
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So so far im at 8/1 12/1 12/1 14/1, in the morning im looking at fox at 14/1. IF there are any others overpriced in the mornings pw price table i can afford to add them given the prices i have antepost. Even adding fox in at 14s, im still only at a 40% book and 150% place with 4 places! Happy dayz!!! (fox takes it to 173% with a small risk element as that one will only be 3 places, sometimes in this case after decs and place terms change i only do win only will decide in morning)
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I agree giddy, though it is a very trappy race, hard to have a view on anything really. Unless you are like me, a price thief and you just like an interest, this is a classic sharpen yer pin and close yer eyes type of race!
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Don't want to pass on your parade but with a known non-runner, some books may not revert their prices. They have that caveat and may well apply it to a PW horse
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Fair enough, not declared a non runner...yet.
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He's out now!
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Added De Kerry Man - not sure why he is so backed at 9/1 but trainers comments suggest they are expecting a big run. I think its the shrewd money gone on this horse.
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Backed Houblon Des Obeaux and Midnight Prayer each way (both four places). Last chance for Houblon Des Obeaux.
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roobuck bookies only don't revert prices on pw tabled races when there is a 10p rule 4, sometimes they waive the 5p and apply it to the reverted prices. It always worth checking.
Of course it depends on the conditions of the race but with this one being a bookies benefit (15 runner handicap 8/1 the field) the will revert even if they have to apply a 10p. They wouldn't if 15p though |
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What am saying is, seeing as the non runner in this case was at least 16/1 with everyone there is no rule 4 and so all books would have reverted. My above post was for anyone wanted to bet on anything yesterday morning as some books were just ripping punters off as at time of bet the non runner was 14/1 with them thus 5p rule 4 on prices taken as was expecting it to be pulled out earlier tbh.
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Did i mention Midnight Prayer last night at 8s?
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Feel a little unlucky there. Iris, yours did mine no favours whatsoever
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Yeah I thought midnight would win it at the last - Kerry Lee in RP said she thought he had a each way chance... and that put m off... I also thought there is no way she could win two big Saturdays on the trot...
But yeah RDB was cluttering them few time... was only a matter of time... he was going to hit one too hard... shame cos it changed the complexion of the race from that point... But unlucky MP backers... I don't think he was coughing last week... And what a fantastic trainer Kerry is turning out to be - Erm will be watching her National entries...! |
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Think RDB was unlucky with the loose horse to be honest.
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