Horse Antepost
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No thread so here goes ..
First port of call SAPHIR DE RHEU - bit of a conundrum horse ... Chases or Hurdles? I'm a firm believer that this horse is a better hurdler than chaser... and I think that argument should have been put to bed based on his last run. So Nicholls yet again has a short price favourite like he did last year in Zarkander. Saphir De Rheu ran in the World hurdle and showed he needed a bit more experience (in my book) before he could take the WH crown, taking the Hennessey route makes this a bit harder to predict... I don't think he should be favourite and I don't feel Nicholls is in the sort of form we expect him... so I would certainly take this horse on.
Thistlecrack however, does look a bit more interesting easily beating Cole Harden and Whisper, but I think that result maybe a bit flattering as both horses need the run.. especially Whisper who was a good 30 l behind.
REVE DE SIVOLA (best priced 9/2) for me is the confident pick, won the race 3 times... beating Smad Place, Salubrious and Zarkander along the way, think his win in this last year showed how much tenacity the horse had and I do feel this race is his World Hurdle. What you are guaranteed is a run for your money, I think he will be a lot bigger than 9/2 he is now... as he always gets underestimated... but expect him to hand out a lesson to the younger brigade.
I have to mention DYNASTE who I was swaying between him and RDS but a risky proposition yet interesting prospect reverting back to hurdling, yes a big leap of faith but I am very intrigued to see how well he does... and hope he does himself justice.
Good Luck.
First port of call SAPHIR DE RHEU - bit of a conundrum horse ... Chases or Hurdles? I'm a firm believer that this horse is a better hurdler than chaser... and I think that argument should have been put to bed based on his last run. So Nicholls yet again has a short price favourite like he did last year in Zarkander. Saphir De Rheu ran in the World hurdle and showed he needed a bit more experience (in my book) before he could take the WH crown, taking the Hennessey route makes this a bit harder to predict... I don't think he should be favourite and I don't feel Nicholls is in the sort of form we expect him... so I would certainly take this horse on.
Thistlecrack however, does look a bit more interesting easily beating Cole Harden and Whisper, but I think that result maybe a bit flattering as both horses need the run.. especially Whisper who was a good 30 l behind.
REVE DE SIVOLA (best priced 9/2) for me is the confident pick, won the race 3 times... beating Smad Place, Salubrious and Zarkander along the way, think his win in this last year showed how much tenacity the horse had and I do feel this race is his World Hurdle. What you are guaranteed is a run for your money, I think he will be a lot bigger than 9/2 he is now... as he always gets underestimated... but expect him to hand out a lesson to the younger brigade.
I have to mention DYNASTE who I was swaying between him and RDS but a risky proposition yet interesting prospect reverting back to hurdling, yes a big leap of faith but I am very intrigued to see how well he does... and hope he does himself justice.
Good Luck.
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have to take sdr on only 3 weeks after a hard race in the hennesy and hitting a few fences
hoping to get a decent a price on thistlecrack sat morning think he could be a monster in 3 mile hurdling, |
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^ I agree, Cole Harden and Whisper may well have needed the run at Newbury but I distinctly remember Tizzard being concerned before the race that Thistlecrack might need it too.
I think he should be favourite here - there's a lot in his form to hope he could be the next superstar staying hurdler (though I suspect they might want to go chasing next year) - he even managed to finish a respectable 5th in the Imperial Cup as a novice over a trip far too short, only beaten by Killutagh Vic since then when he perhaps tried to come from too far back and some very decent animals have finished a long way behind him in his last three races. |
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I agree that Thistlecrack is probably the class horse in the race, but you need guts and bottomless stamina for the Long Walk - even more so than the World Hurdle - and for that reason RDS (who would stay 12 miles, never mind 3) is a knocking price to win it again.
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Backed Saphir de Rheu win and Dynaste each way.
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Having revisited the race, I'm a bit concerned about Tizzard stable form - RTF is 31% and had two run pretty poorly at Ascot yesterday, sometimes his flagship horses outperform the overall stats but Thistlecrack threw in at least one disappointing effort last term and there are plenty of binary runners from the stable so can't bring myself to back him at current price.
Had a small ew bet on Taglietelle at 20/1 mainly based on his Aintree handicap win last season - he recorded a better CD time than Thistlecrack in similar conditions (albeit the latter won very comfortably) - RDS may well make a mug of me - oppose a Nick Williams hurdler at your peril - but I don't think the ground is going to be as deep as he would ideally like. I think it's an interesting race, good luck all. |
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I just Thistlecrack is much better than the rest, going for a repeat forecast of the Newbury race with Deputy Dan. good luck.
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So annoyed they showed different tactics on Deputy Dan after he put in a pb lto, he seemed to enjoy being in a race lto. I know DD was a few lbs worse off but RDS won 2 of the weakest long walks in history.
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REVE DE SIVOLA on 10-4 in the Peter Marsh Chase? That's worth a bet - obv depends on how to takes to chasing again... but weight does give him a good chance as dropping down in class too
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won well on saturday, wonder if he will go to cheltenham
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