CASPIAN CAVIAR GOLD CUP - ANNACOTTY 12/1

Id be surprised if he didn't run... the moment they declare him will be 6s or 7s... yes he did stop when he seemed like cruising but that run would have done him the world of good - I saw it as fitness rather than yard issues...

I took the risk to grab 12s but just have to wait and see...

Maybe, but she has no entries until the 11th. Doesn't sound good either way really as you'd want the yard to have some winners first.

There are a stack load of horses in the 130's here, probably waiting to see what the top weight will be.

had a £25 free bet from laddies backed bristol de mai with the grid card on saturday, stuck it on annacotty must go well here off only 5lb more.

champagne west the intersting one off 150, no idea if he will turn up thou, polvarised ptit zig here last year, probably back buywise to.

think sound investment will carry top weight

good luck all as always

I'm in agreement with the O/P.

Anacotty 3pt win 1 pt place 12/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)

Buywise 1/2pt win 12/1

Thomas Crapper 1/2pt win 20/1

Thomas Crapper not running

Think Wishful Thinking will be top weight which would suit hobbs and keep Champagne on a nice weight

Wishful Thinking is not running either tim6.

1    51-813    Sound Investment      7    11-12    Paul Nicholls
2    F-4215    Irish Cavalier      6    11-6    Rebecca Curtis       
3    653-P9    Johns Spirit        8    11-5    Jonjo O´Neill
4    145-32    Buywise                    8    11-2    Evan Williams
5    P10F-1    Annacotty              7    11-2    Alan King
6    112F-    Champagne West       7    11-0    Philip Hobbs
7    40254    Texas Jack          9    11-0    Noel Meade
8    95/1-1    Salubrious          8    10-12    Paul Nicholls
9    F1U/5-    Mozoltov            9    10-12    W P Mullins
10    1-1316    Art Mauresque       5    10-11    Paul Nicholls
11    4694-1    Tenor Nivernais      8    10-8    Venetia Williams
12    461-41    Little Jon          7    10-7    Nigel Twiston-Davies
13    13-711    Doctor Phoenix      7    10-5    David Dennis
14    P426B    Pass The Hat         8    10-4    A L T Moore
15    134-00    Generous Ransom     7    10-2    Nick Gifford
16    3356-5    Turn Over Sivola     8    10-1    Alan King
17    P11-5P    Shantou Magic       8    10-1    Charlie Longsdon
18    12P-11    Village Vic         8    10-0    Philip Hobbs

Im not sure I'd trust Nick Gifford to train my dog, but Generous Ransom is absolutely thrown in here, based on his festival run in March. Stayed on really well that day so shouldn't be any probs with the trip. Was only 3l behind Irish Cavalier that day getting a solitary pound, and is now in receipt of 18lb. Likewise he beat Little Jon 6l giving him 3lb and now receives 5lb. Seems fairly versatile with regards to ground.

The big negative is his last two runs, which have been nothing short of abysmal (and the trainer). But willing to risk him again at 20/1. Cheers

Not sure your dog could get over those fences anyway.

I backed him in March and then the PaddyPower and have talked myself into it again.

Generous Ransom had 2 runs over unsuitably short distances to start last season, then won on his 3rd start when stepped up, so he might be a horse that takes a couple of runs to get race-fit. He's ran at Cheltenham 4 times, but only once on the new course, which he won. He's been running on the old course at Cheltenham this season but it's the new course on Saturday.

So 2 poor runs this season to get fit then aim him at this race on the new course. It could be a plan or he needs a new trainer.

Disappointing with Thomas Crapper - as Sporting Life said he was on target etc... I wonder if they post bogus stories in order of making some money - as he was the only horse they reported on which is a bit odd... he doesn't run...

Erm that's me and my conspiracy theories...

Anyway TENOR NINERVAIS 20/1 is an interesting entry for Venetia Williams stable, I think 20s is big and they did win it last year with a horse (NiceoneFrankie) who has a very similar profile.

I took the same view about two runs last season as well Tucho. Maybe he just isn't very adept at getting them fit and they need races?

Salubrious NAP. Has come on over a stone for Carlisle pipe opener, after intense rain this week at Cheltenham likely to get the heavy ground he will love and that may inconvenience others. Festival winner, 8 years old and joint owned by 2 of National Hunt Racing's most prominent Families. 148 will look an absolute mega blot come Saturday, just as 159 did about Al Ferof in the PP a few years back. I'm on at 20's so was pleased to see him feature in the 5 day decs. All this needs now is Sam on top and we're in with a great shout.

Views ?

Nicholls said Salubrious will run at Ascot instead unless Cheltenham gets a deluge and it comes up very soft.

great. When and where did he say that CV ?

"We send a decent team to Cheltenham at the end of the week including Old Guard in the International Hurdle and Sound Investment, Salubrious and Art Mauresque in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup."

That's all that is on his blog ...

Said it today

http://course-specialist.co.uk/blogs/paul-nicholls-planning-strong-team-for-day-two-of-the-international/

Mmmm thanks. B8888cks though. Dear oh dear ... rain dance needed then.

More chance of good ground than heavy, good to soft I reckon, thats what Im basing my bets/analysis on

And bizarrely £168 quid for him in this market and £0 matched for Ascot ... intriguing but I'd be clutching at straws sadly I think ...

Surely the step up in trip for Buywise should do the trick.  However feel free to back him at treble his odds in running.

Step up in trip _O1?

Yes it's 100 metres further he is usually in the lead 10 metres after the post so 90 to play with. I would like to see him over further though. He is a back to lay punters dream !!!

Yes it's 100 metres further he is usually in the lead 10 metres after the post so 90 to play with. I would like to see him over further though. He is a back to lay punters dream !!!

I don't know if it is actually any longer. But any extra couple of meters would be at the start, not at the finishing post where he needs it.

Last time Buywise had a race with a very fast pace, heavy ground to slow them all up/tire them out and a huge headwind in the straight which was guaranteed to slow down those front runners. I don't think everything is going to fall as sweet for him again.

Took 11/1 Village Vic this morning from 32 red . com, funnily enough, my 50 each way was referred to trader but they took the bet. Suppose i need to start to get used to that now since my bet way account has been whittled down to a max take out per bet to £10! Though most of my bets are placed in shops, i don't usually have this problem a lot of you on here have in the past so i guess i am starting to feel your pains.

Anyways, followed you in on Generous Ransom CCM and Tucho, what use both say convinced me to dabble at the 20s on offer, if also what Nichols says proves to be accurate, then everything shortens in price anyways seeing as them 2 horses he will send to Ascot and not here are above GR in the market.

Art Mauresque is another ive added to the portfolio at 10s.

Im with Iris. Its uncanny how similair a profile Tenor Nivernais has to last years winner Niceonefrankie, both being seemingly exposed, experienced chasers that both won the same Ascot race impressively prior to coming here - both even ran down the field in the previous seasons Racing Post Chase at Kempton.

Dont know what it is about Venetia Williams and the way she trains.

Those with long memories will remember The Outack Way winning the Mackeson in the late nineties after 20 odd chase starts. Even more recent Cheltenham handicap winners such as Mon Mome and a bit further back Royale de vassey both landing what was then a lucrative 3mile chase at the start of this meeting after 20 odd chase starts too. Think 20-1 s worth a stab.

Agree also about Generous Ransom but Nick Gifford hasnt trained a winner yet this season so unless he has some success on Friday i will reluctantly let it pass.

I've added Champagne West @ 10/1

Generous Ransom clearly of interest for all the reasons stated above but Nick Gifford couldn't train pigs to eat right now so I will leave him unbacked - bound to hose up now.

Ha! Well whadya know - he's gone and fluked a winner at Fontwell. Dont think thats a definite sign the tide has turned though...

I can see this being a 15 runner affair come off time so securing 4 places with the books could be a wise move

Saw he had a winner bet.., presume it was fortunate then?!

Regarding Tenor Nivernais, he's a horse I like a lot and have backed him many times, but I reckon he needs soft ground to show his best and that's looking more and more unlikely.

Can't see the ground being anything but very testing. Might not be really wet and heavy, but tacky and gluey for sure.

More uninformed money for Salubrious today ... and £8 quid matched on him for Ascot.

Does anyone think he could still run here ? They've traded almost as much on him now as Sound Investment - no pink money at time of writing here though ...

My personal take on this race is that no one can confidently predict the outcome of those that ran well in the Paddy Power. I was on Annacotty that day and thought my bet was done as he soon came under pressure, Buywise ran on better than most, Irish Cavalier came there on the bit, Sound Investment ran well under a big weight, Art Mauresque got tired on the ground etc
Then you have horses that arent running so well but getting to a mark that would see them well in here eg Johns Spirit, Pass The Hat and of course Generous Ransom. This race tends to go to a horse running well though rather than one being given a chance by the handicapper but running so so.
Next are a block of runners that have been winning but is the form strong enough ? eg Village Vic, Doctor Phoenix, Little John, Tenor Nivernais
I personally think that this is a tricky race but decided that my angle will be a win bet on Champagne West who I hope will be fit and ready as looked a classy horse when last seen and one off the radar but the price appeals (25/1 with 4 places) in Turn Over Sivola each way.  I hope this horse gets declared as although there are alot of unknowns (trip especially) I am thinking that he could be a touch of value seeing as 5th in a Grand Annual, 3rd in a Grade 2 behind Vibrato Valtat and Top Gamble off a higher mark than this. Travelled well in the season pipe opener at this track before tiring in the latter stages but looking ominous 2 out.

Dec 8, 2015 -- 7:17PM, harchibald wrote:

More uninformed money for Salubrious today ... and £8 quid matched on him for Ascot. Does anyone think he could still run here ? They've traded almost as much on him now as Sound Investment - no pink money at time of writing here though ...

'The Insider' on Sporting Life advised him today harchibald. The markets will probably tell you very little at this stage.

I've just had a tweet back from Rebecca Curtis & if Irish Cavaliers bloods are OK tomorrow then he runs on Saturday.

Irish Cavalier is a rancid price given the concerns.

Philip Hobbs for me, VILLAGE VIC and CHAMPAGNE WEST.  Prefer the former, but would follow Richard Johnson' choice for a final selection.

Can he do 10st on VV?

Would think IC will be pulled too good a horse to risk on heavy going if
there is any doubt about him. Agree with Seathestars comment on taking 4 places now
as race is cutting up.

Plenty of rain forecast for Chelts now... have added Tenor Nivernais at 14/1.

Just watched the Paddy Power again and have had another 2pt win, 1 pt place on Annacotty @ 9/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,) - just can't see him out of the places if he is in the same form (barring a fall, brought down etc obviously).

Looked in real trouble at half way but really found his stride once they hit the rising ground approaching the home turn and showed a good turn of foot to sweep into the lead and stayed on well.

I'm not sure about it being heavy ground at all. It's currently good to soft all over with 10 mm forecast over the next few days.

Buywise was so very unlucky in the PP. If he could only improve his jumping, he would go very close in this. Are you deserting him CV?
Texas Jack caught my eye last time out. Jumped well and travelled strongly over a trip too far behind Don Cossack. Fancy him to make the
frame but main bet will be Buywise with fingers crossed for an improved round of jumping

Richard Johnson has chosen Village Vic over Champagne West.

Irish Cavalier given the all clear to run.

Salubrious, Generous Ransom and Pass the Hat don't run.

didn't know RJ could do 10st must be something in that and that he chose
village vic over champagne west

Dec 10, 2015 -- 1:11PM, tim6 wrote:

didn't know RJ could do 10st must be something in that and that he chosevillage vic over champagne west

He doesn't do it very often. This will be his 30th since 2008. 4 winners.

reading in the paper today the trainers saying BUYWISE is what he is, has 2 plates in his back hence the jumping probs and has to be ridden out the back to get warmed up

Irish Cavalier is a graded chaser in h/c company imv. No idea what happened in Paddy Power but the better ground on Sat will suit. Hopefully Curtis has her string right now. Hope Romford Pele runs well tomorrow

I backed Generous Ransom for the PP thinking I had a very clever analytical edge. I'm now in the fool me once, more fool you, fool me twice, more fool me conundrum where Nick Gifford is concerned.

auto your not the only one was on generous ransom myself antepost thought
he deserved another chance after the PP oh the joys of it

Just checked the card and he's not running so that's a relief. Probably has the same illness he had before the PP

Cheltenham / Fri 11 Dec
Going/Track  Soft, Good to soft in places (Chase and Hurdle) Good to soft (Cross country) (GoingStick: Chase and hurdle 6.9, Cross country 7.4 on Thursday at 16:00)
Updated @ 4:30pm, Thu 10 Dec Rails: Chase bends (except cross country) dolled out 12 yards adding 72 yards to race 2 and 144 yards to races 1 and 4. Hurdle bends dolled out 10 yards adding 60 yards to races 3 and 7 and 100 yards to race 6.
Updated @ 9:52am, Thu 10 Dec Weather 4mm of rain Thursday afternoon, dry Friday, early rain Saturday (2 to 3 mm).
Updated @ 4:30pm, Thu 10 Dec

Not convinced on jockey bookings for mine.....Turn Over Sivola and Champagne West (will have saver on Annacotty)

can't get RJ taking village vic as think this race is between Champagne west and if fit Irish Cavalier two grade 1
performers if fit

With Johnson surprisingly choosing Village Vic I've laid off my bet on Champagne West. I just don't fancy VV at all round Cheltenham so I can only assume CW is going to need the run - or they are putting nus all away to get a better price on CW.
Don't get me wrong Tom O'Brien is a perfectly good substitute and has won on CW before. If CW drifts out to a silly price tomorrow (say 16/1+) I might have a few quid on just in case.

Happy to have got 4 places antepost with only 15 being declared - now come on Annacotty

The Romford Pele's run today wouldn't inspire much confidence in Irish Cavalier. I thought it quite worrying how rapidly his decline came about there.

Romford's ultimate goal is th GN, so I doubt he would've been fully wound up today and they certainly wouldn't want a hike in the weights.
As for this race, if CWest is going to be half the horse he looked 12 months ago, then he should hose up, the defection of Dicky is an obvious worry though.

Were you watching it Desmond Orchard? It's not the fact that he didn't win. He was struggling 10 jumps out, just about made it over a couple of fences before almost inevitably falling 8 out. It may very well be that he had his own problems today (blood vessel etc) but it's not a great first run after a break for a stable who by their own admission have had issues. They have two more runners today at Bangor.

Venetia Williams does it again with another seemingly exposed horse - this time 11 yo Aachen - having just hosed up at Wincanton last week. Needless to say i didnt back it!

Does bode well for Tenor Nivernais' chances tomorrow who also dotted up last time.

Had a saver on Little Jon. Think the Paddy Power form is too incestuous and could pay to look elsewhere.

Some stats,last 9 year old to win this was in 1993,last horse older that 9 to win,was in 1974.



                                          6y old 3/10
                                          7 y old 4/10
                                          8 y old 2/10
                                          4 y old 1/10
                                          5 y old 0/10
Horses rated 142 or higher,7/8.8/10 finished in first 3 lto,9/10 ran between 1 and 3 runs since july 1st,8/10 had won between 2 to 4 chases,8/10 had run in 4 or less handicap chases,9/10 had won no more than 2 handicap chases.so there's about  11 good reasons to find the winner tomorrow.Good Luck all.

Champagne West for me.

Texas Jack looks to be sound e/w value at a general 25/1. This trip should suit him down to the ground and the handicapper has given him every chance. Misses a race at Navan where he looked to have an easier task.

Still really keen on Annacotty, main bet by far but got a good reserve as Bertyl mentions TENOR NINERVAIS... you really do get a run for your money with Venetia Williams... as I said before deja vu with Niceonefrankie ... dismiss at your peril.

Would n't dream of saying he can't win but Tenor Nivernais' course form and his record in Class 1 and 2 races puts me off - though if he jumps like Aachen did today he'd have every chance.

Same applies to a lesser extent to Village Vic although he's had less attempts at C1 and C2 level and gets in off a featherweight - not sure Dickie Johnson has got this one right so I'll back Champagne West in the morning (was going to go win only but notice quite a lot of the books are going 4 places even though there's only 15 runners).

Rebecca Curtis's other 2 runners at Bangor today appear to have run quite respectably, Golden Milan arguably out ran his odds but this will be much more competitive as was the race in which The Romford Pele struggled before falling today - Irish Cavalier still holds an entry in the King George but I struggle to have much confidence that he'll perform to his best, I'm sure he'll prove himself a very decent animal eventually just not sure it will be tomorrow.

Agree with betily about the incestuous nature of the Paddy Power form as well - 5 of the 6 who reoppose are the top five in the handicap and might be vulnerable to something lower.

So Champagne West for me, good luck....

I still think Champagne West will prove the best horse in the future, I like Village Vics novice hurdle form, so off 10 stone he is the one for me. Really respect Annacotty as he has g1 form.

Alos like Champagne West, Johns Spirit and Mozoltov.

Also some c/f/c of the above 5.

Stable form a worry but have backed Sound Investment,good luck.

VV's last 3 wins have all been on Good ground.

Tenor Nivernais hosed in last time out but his course form is just OK, nothing more, so puts me off.

NTD's horses usually take well to Cheltenham and at least Little Jon comes from a decent race at Newbury so although he is now 8/1 favourite he'll do for me.

Irish Cavalier a NR.

Little Jon's last 3 wins all on Soft. Big contrast between the two.

Coming around to Little Jon myself, but the negative that I can't get over is him getting the trip. Just think 2m4f on soft ground around Chelts will be too much and he will get out stayed up the hill.

what

what

what

what

what ... a yoyo with Irish Cavalier

very disappointing ...

by the way - not sure how all the "what" 's got in the thread?

' .....just say ' what ' again , I dare you .....'

What film ?

Pulp fiction off course...

Although I just could have a stutter...

think champagne west will go off fav and win Tom O'Brien an able deputy

Going for a leap of faith, Jonjo O` Neill treble including Johns Spirit each way.

Will also back Tenor Nivernais each way and leave out Village Vic to my cost maybe.

anyone figure out the gamble on Mozoltov walsh\mullins combo. Give him that he goes on soft but form does
not look good enough has Mullins worked the auracle on him

I thought the rain would have arrived by now but it hasn't, so having a saver bet on VV.

Little Jon all but fell with that mistake, no chance now.

Well done winners.

I couldn't have got that race more wrong.

Sweet. The horse lurking in the 130's hacks up

Well done winners, & some people got the forecast too

Tenor Nivernais ran well, good eachway prices landed.

well done winners - the race says a lot about the Paddy Power runners -  4th 5th 6th and 7th ... you have to say pp form this season aint too great...

to be fair to the PP runners I think it was a gruelling race ground softer than normal and it took
a lot out of them, would think sound investment will win a big race as he has ran very well

to be fair to the PP runners I think it was a gruelling race ground softer than normal and it took
a lot out of them, would think sound investment will win a big race as he has ran very well

It might not have helped that the first 4 in the PP got weight hikes. Sound Investment ran really well again but can't see him winning a handicap. A weak Ryanair perhaps?

Horses have been built up for the Paddy Power for months and months. That's the target and they're fit and ready. The December Gold Cup is an afterthought. We don't really know how the horses have recovered and in many cases neither do the trainers.   

They're different races. Run most races again and you'll find a different winner. In the Paddy Power the front runners faded away and those held up fought out the finish. In the December Gold Cup those at the back didn't get a chance. Run the two again and it might be vice-versa.

Plus it's the new course versus the old course.

Well done winners! Proves Richard Johnson knows much more than I do! Great ride too, superb pace judgement.

Tenor Nivernais ran well also but,as pointed out above, the Paddy Power protagonists disappointed.

Heard a Timeform bloke today saying effectively that he did n't think the race was up to much - I disagree, first two look progressive to me, not hard to see either of them winning either the big handicap at Kempton at end of Feb (Hobbs has won that four times I think) or a handicap back at the festival.

Given Wishfull Thinking and Menorah are getting on in years and likely to bypass the festival, one of VV or CW could even end up contesting the Ryanair.

Village Vic still comes out 8lb behind Champagne West and it would be surprising if the latter does not improve the most.

VV was running off 136. He would have no chance of getting in the PP of that rating. Poor renewal.