Horse Antepost

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
25 Nov 15 22:01
Date Joined: 17 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 1,978 | Blogger: IrisDeBalme's blog
I really fancy SAINT ARE to run well in the Becher Chase, last season showed his best form at Aintree, 3rd in the Becher and 2nd in the Grand National so will easily take to the fences.

His main aim will be the national but connections will be quite keen for this race too... and surely at 14/1 is good value.  There are a few horses lurking further down the handicap the likes of Benvolio, Pineau De Re and Night In Milan, but SAINT ARE is my first port of call.

Good Luck.
Pause Switch to Standard View BECHER CHASE AINTREE - SAINT ARE 14/1
Show More
Report nocturnal November 29, 2015 6:19 PM GMT
Very solid Iris,ran a cracker in april,time and again these races are won by horses with experience around aintree.
PFN may hold the key to the handicap weights,pretty sure he will run one of his three near the top,and I think it might be Unioniste.Plenty guesswork at this stage,fell early in the big one,they may want to get some more experience into him,if they see him as a future winner.
Further down the two that interest me are Mon Parrain and Art of Logistics.The former went into the notebook last year with an unplaced effort in this race,jumping soundly,never near leaders.
Art of Logistics given similar ride in the Topham,doubly entered he may go for the sefton,dropping down slowly,he is of interest where ever entered.
Both would not want it too soft,need the decs and ground.
Despite tampering with the fences,they still remain a unique test,look forward to both races next weekend.
Report sixtwosix November 29, 2015 7:25 PM GMT
Goonyella to win this en route to winning in April.
Report IrisDeBalme November 29, 2015 9:25 PM GMT
I also backed Goonyella @12s only because of his win in the Midlands National and 2nd in the Scottish equivalent... think he is more than likely to be the clear fav and maybe half the price he is now - having said that Im not really sure how he will take to the fences considering how easily he unseated last year.
Report Fabulous November 29, 2015 11:20 PM GMT
Went for Benvolio and Soll both ew @ 25's.

Think the 2 Irish raiders at the head of the market look rock solid though, and think Sam Winner could be interesting. Few decent looking outsiders like Vic's Canvas, Harry The Viking, and Buachaill Alainn.

Win or lose, nice looking entries and a race I'm looking forward to.
Report IrisDeBalme November 30, 2015 8:45 AM GMT
I also backed PINEAU DE RE ...@20 trainer confirms in Rp he will run

Big price for a past winner and older horses do really well in this race
Report sixtwosix November 30, 2015 5:18 PM GMT
Goonyella did unseat at the first last year , not an issue for me .

His endless stamina and the ground conditions are ideal , just like at Uttoxeter.
The race could be the equivalent of 4 miles in April .
Report GI MAC November 30, 2015 10:18 PM GMT
I've had a bet on Portrait King in this. He was running a big race in the GN before he fell 3 out, that was off a mark of 140, and he runs in this off 132, carrying only 10 stone if the top weight stands his ground. They must surely be aiming the horse at the national again, but they have to get his mark up to have any chance of getting in, so I reckon he'll run a big race in this for just this reason. If it keeps raining his chances will improve.
Report Giddy December 1, 2015 1:28 AM GMT
My first thoughts were for Pineau De Re as I thought he may be recapturing some of his old form when 2nd at Sandown last time out. On reflection and after watching the race again I think it was a poor race and he was under pressure a long way from home and stayed on passed tired horses,who have all seen much better days 
Unioniste is of a big interest even under top  weight. Has mixed it with the best and plenty of experience for a 7 year old and of course,course form
Will wait and see how the race cuts up before committing
Report PJay December 1, 2015 10:54 AM GMT
Pineau just looks like one of those many National winners who would usually have been retired by now and a lot of people think he should have been. I hope he does get him back but I really don't see it. If he doesn't perform at Aintree this Saturday I hope he isn't flogged around the National course again in April. He doesn't owe them anything.
Report jose mourinho's dog December 1, 2015 5:18 PM GMT
Goonyella a rare ante post each way for me - 12-1 first 4 places. Must go well if taking to the challenge. Race likely to cut up (it often does). Got paid out for 4th place in a 6 horse race a few years back with Idle Talk, similar bet.
Report IrisDeBalme December 1, 2015 6:05 PM GMT
Teenagers like Hello Bud and Oscar time have proved age is not a factor in this race ... I'm not put off by PINEAU DE RE at all ... Albeit it's a big ask since his form when winning the national
Report IrisDeBalme December 1, 2015 6:06 PM GMT
Teenagers like Hello Bud and Oscar time have proved age is not a factor in this race ... I'm not put off by PINEAU DE RE at all ... Albeit it's a big ask since his form when winning the national
Report PJay December 1, 2015 6:43 PM GMT
Age isn't a factor. His form is.
Report IrisDeBalme December 1, 2015 8:51 PM GMT
form before winning Aintree Becher Chase

Hello Bud 1PP/5U6547/35
Oscar Time 4U604/11U (his 2 wins that season were class 6)

There seems to be a dip in their previous season form shown in bold, just proves that course does light them up... so form isn't that much of a factor as you think when horses have proven course form.
Report PJay December 1, 2015 9:11 PM GMT
That's a poor effort at reading form Iris (imo). Both had far superior form coming into it. But horses do tend to come good at the track. Best of luck.
Report KipperRSA December 1, 2015 9:16 PM GMT
Alot of rain due again so bottomless ground or abandoned imo. Not looked in great detail yet but not seeing many that seem handicapped to win. My first thoughts are Heathfield and No Planning plus the impossible to predict Bob Ford
Report Benjy December 1, 2015 9:30 PM GMT
PDR run lto suggests he maintains ability. Agree he's the play here at the prices.
Report PJay December 1, 2015 9:32 PM GMT
I think his latest run in the National is just as important or maybe more so. I have to watch both again.

Looking forward to getting properly stuck into this. Great race.
Report KipperRSA December 1, 2015 9:45 PM GMT
Dolutalo added to my "closer look" list
Report IrisDeBalme December 1, 2015 11:00 PM GMT
the point im making Pjay is in a race like this (Aintree factor) form can be relative ...
Report PJay December 1, 2015 11:09 PM GMT
Yes. As I said "I think his latest run in the National is just as important or maybe more so (than his most recent race)." Oscar Time and Hello Bud always had good form over the course(distance). Pineau disappointed last year which suggested he might have run his race, like almost every National winner has done after the big race. We all know most never win again.

I have about 7 hours of work to do on the race yet so early days. Maybe Pineau will come out on top for me yet? Who knows. Best of luck.
Report pipedreamer December 2, 2015 12:32 AM GMT
Some stats from last year.
                               9 and 10 year old winners 6/10
                               last horse to win under 8 was 2004
                               below 10stone 10   7/10
                               over 11 stone 5    3/10
                               2 won from out of the handicap.
                               rated 130 to 139  6/10 but also 5 wins from last 6
                               140 and higher 3/10,1 below 127
                               finished in first 5 lto completed start 9/10
                               20 furlong + winner 10/10
                               24 furlong +         8/10
                               ran in last 45 days 7/10
                               racecourse debut in a n h race 10/10
                               ran in at least 13 chase races 7/10,but also 5 out of last 6,the 3 exceptions were P Nichols horse
                               ran in at least 8 handicap chases 7/10,the 3 exceptions were P.Nicholls horses.
                               ran in class 2 or higher 8/10.
                               ran over the National fences 5/10, won last 5 !!,3/5 exceptions were P.Nicholls horses
                               1 won Cork National,1 completed the course in 2 Irish Nationals,some of the others ran in the Haydock Grand National Trial,Troytown handicap and the Paddy Power.

This has been a lucky race for me in the last 17 years,hope to be lucky again.Hope this helps,Lots of luck to all.
Report KipperRSA December 3, 2015 8:53 PM GMT
A lot of rain today and loads due Saturday too....
Report sixtwosix December 3, 2015 9:02 PM GMT
Goonyella will be 3/1 after youknowwho picks him on Saturday , and will have the same surface to run on as when he scooted up at Uttoxeter.
Report PJay December 3, 2015 11:48 PM GMT
Goonyella is the go-to plodder.

Regarding 'youknowwho', I think he might go for a certain outsider here if the current prices hold, one he has been on before.

9 horses under 13/1. I think it's hard to find the value among that lot.
Report Facts December 4, 2015 6:26 PM GMT
Goonyella and Thunder And Roses for me.
Report sixtwosix December 4, 2015 7:13 PM GMT
Goonyella is the go-to plodder.

plodder ...... a fast finishing second in the Scottish National on good ground.....the horse has got the lot .
Report PJay December 4, 2015 7:27 PM GMT
No horse finishes the Scottish National fast. They finish it less slowly than others...

He's the out and out stayer/plodder.
Report PJay December 4, 2015 7:32 PM GMT
One hell of a head-wind forecast for the final straight tomorrow, just to make it an even tougher test.

It will take a lot of winning and you have to ask yourself how badly they all want it. The Grand National is the focus for a number of them and these will be quite happy with a decent run and a clear round.
Report KipperRSA December 4, 2015 8:18 PM GMT
Backed Portrait King, the well handicapped Highland Lodge and a saver on No Planning myself.....
Report Angela Rebecchi December 5, 2015 1:42 AM GMT
On PK at 25/1 myself.
Report nocturnal December 5, 2015 10:45 AM GMT
Good work Pipedreamer

No standout for me,watched a few renewals and winners/placed horses invariably up with the pace,the ground may dictate different today,alot will depend on how sensibe they go.Settled on No Planning from the smith yard,right end of the handicap,not the biggest but generally sound jumper,good record this time year,ground ok,no experience of these fences the negative,can go from the front.

Report tim6 December 5, 2015 10:59 AM GMT
Beecher ch  No Planning reserve goonyella

good luck all
Report KipperRSA December 5, 2015 11:12 AM GMT
relatively dry morning so far so seems the rains today may come after racing
Report FELTFAIR December 5, 2015 1:39 PM GMT
Report KipperRSA December 5, 2015 1:51 PM GMT
Cracking for me that
Report Facts December 5, 2015 2:18 PM GMT
Very well done Kipper. Lovely price !
Report tim6 December 5, 2015 2:33 PM GMT
well done ripper nice one
Report KipperRSA December 5, 2015 2:36 PM GMT
Very overpriced I thought and stayed on bravely. Cheers Chaps
Report Giddy December 5, 2015 4:15 PM GMT
Well done Kipper. PK was just getting into also. Great Call
Report PJay December 6, 2015 7:21 PM GMT

Dec 3, 2015 -- 5:48PM, PJay wrote:

Goonyella is the go-to plodder. Regarding 'youknowwho', I think he might go for a certain outsider here if the current prices hold, one he has been on before. 9 horses under 13/1. I think it's hard to find the value among that lot.

'youknowwho' didn't, but he should have! 4th in the Hennessy, once favourite for the Welsh National. Jumped around here last year and looked to be crying out for a change of scenery off a great mark.

Again those with one eye on the National fail to show.

Report nocturnal December 6, 2015 7:36 PM GMT
WP kipper,lovely round jumping and continued the trend of recent winners being on the front end,very good ride as well,no panic button over the last 2 fences as challengers appeared,kept a little back for the finnish,nice performance.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.


Instance ID: 13539