Horse Antepost
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Really fancy the chances of this one at Haydock on Saturday.
He clearly loves this place having won 3 from 3 at the place. In addition he has a fantastic, slick hurdling style and also digs really deep when he comes under pressure.
Saturdays likely heavy ground will hold no fears and although now rated 146 he has the profile of recent winners of this race who were 5 or 6 year olds, rated between 141-149 with 3 of those carrying over 11-7.
In addition, his front running style should be no hindrance as no fewer than 5 of the last 6 winners made most or all of the running. Im happy to discount his seasonal debut when 5th in the West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby as he needed his first run last year and in any case was a stone wrong at the weights with the first three with the Cesarewich winner in 4th. That should have teed him up nicely for this.
Emma Lavelle has been among the winners lately and although Jonjo has three entered, Ritchie McLernon who clearly gets on well with the horse will hopefully be free to ride. She had this to say last week about Closing Ceremony.
The Andover-based trainer also had news of Closing Ceremony, who won the Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock in February, but failed to make an impact on his return to action at Wetherby.
"He goes for the fixed-brush hurdle at his beloved Haydock at the end of the month," said Lavelle.
"He just gets race-rusty and he always seems to run an average race on his first race of the season. He didn't have his handicap mark moved.
"It is a halfway house in terms of whether we stick hurdling or go novice chasing.
"I really like the Haydock race, especially for horses that are potentially going chasing, as it gives them a stepping stone.
"We have schooled him over the fixed-brush fences at home and he has been very good at them."
I think with that in mind the 25-1 is a knocking price and Im going to have a bit now and a bit on the day. Good luck all!!
He clearly loves this place having won 3 from 3 at the place. In addition he has a fantastic, slick hurdling style and also digs really deep when he comes under pressure.
Saturdays likely heavy ground will hold no fears and although now rated 146 he has the profile of recent winners of this race who were 5 or 6 year olds, rated between 141-149 with 3 of those carrying over 11-7.
In addition, his front running style should be no hindrance as no fewer than 5 of the last 6 winners made most or all of the running. Im happy to discount his seasonal debut when 5th in the West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby as he needed his first run last year and in any case was a stone wrong at the weights with the first three with the Cesarewich winner in 4th. That should have teed him up nicely for this.
Emma Lavelle has been among the winners lately and although Jonjo has three entered, Ritchie McLernon who clearly gets on well with the horse will hopefully be free to ride. She had this to say last week about Closing Ceremony.
The Andover-based trainer also had news of Closing Ceremony, who won the Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock in February, but failed to make an impact on his return to action at Wetherby.
"He goes for the fixed-brush hurdle at his beloved Haydock at the end of the month," said Lavelle.
"He just gets race-rusty and he always seems to run an average race on his first race of the season. He didn't have his handicap mark moved.
"It is a halfway house in terms of whether we stick hurdling or go novice chasing.
"I really like the Haydock race, especially for horses that are potentially going chasing, as it gives them a stepping stone.
"We have schooled him over the fixed-brush fences at home and he has been very good at them."
I think with that in mind the 25-1 is a knocking price and Im going to have a bit now and a bit on the day. Good luck all!!
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I'm going to fully look at the race at the 5 day decs tomorrow. But I'd had a brief look at Closing Ceremony among others this evening and noticed the Haydock form. I hadn't yet looked at the prices and 25/1 is too big for sure. I've had a look again and his jumping is superb, he clearly loves the track and the ground is soft there at Haydock which is also in his favour. I didn't know he was already confirmed for the race. I've taken the 25/1 also
One who I've also backed tonight is Ma Filleule who for some inexplicable rason was dropped 10lbs for a prep hurdles run over 2miles a couple of weeks ago. Dropped from 144 to 134 when her Chase mark is 157!! I hope Henderson hasn't let this go unnoticed and 2m6f over these fixed brush hurdles she'd be chucked in. I've backed her at 33/1 Baradari is another one on my shortlist. But I've got 2 antepost bets now so I'll wait to see what the decs are like tomorrow and go through them. |
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Interesting, will have a closer look. Been thinking Tea For Two the one to be on but tempting post. Cheers
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Followed you in with a little win and place on him @ 25/1. Good luck.
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Meeting likely to be in jeopardy though with the rain thats a coming again to the North West this week
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I agree Kipper. There is s..tloads of the wet stuff coming and no two ways about it - if the meeting goes ahead it will be swampy, boggy in places (what they call "yielding" in Ireland!).
Join The Clan could be another at the prices but will wait to see what gets declared today first. |
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Just had a look at Ma Filleule. What is the handicapper playing at? She looked fat that day too, so I'd expect her to come on considerably. Henderson surely has to have a go at the race on these terms. The ground might not be quite to her liking, but she is so well in that she must have a chance anyway.
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She's not entered. Was defo worth going for imv and worth the bet at 33/1
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I took the 25s CV
 Not to worry, started my portfolio on Closing Ceremony at 25s, T42 at 12s and the fav at 7s, well worth properly looking at this race early on as am sure max field is 20 but when you look at last couple years only 17 have run in it and with one non runner so it could be worth taking insurance on the 4 places |
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17 runners with 2 reserves.
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Wd all winners, a great 3 days just had at the holy of holies wiv Carvs
 Basil Brush - Yala Enki 4pt win @14s shybet |
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There must be a strong chance this one will end up top weight, which is a bit off putting considering the likely state of the ground. Otherwise he has a very tempting profile.
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not sure how he warrants a rating of 146 myself
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No idea if he will turn out again and hoping that Pipe horses simply needed the run. On that basis done a small e/w on Batavir at 25s with Sly
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2 for me in this BARADARI and DEFINITELY RED both will love the ground which sounds like the most important requirement to factor in
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Can't see past Definitly Red myself. Course trip and especially the ground will suit. Beat Tea for Two in a Newbury bumper on bottomless ground and that horse now reoppose's on worse terms and easily has the beating of Shantou Bob on a line through Ballagh
Cannot disagree with the OP re CC and has made a strong reasoned point but I feel Def Red is still unexposed and the best is yet to come Still not entirely happy Ellison is the right man to train this horse and hopeful that he proves me wrong |
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16 Declared and Closing Ceremony topweight, hence the drift.
Not ideal but 3 of last 8 winners carried it to victory so all not lost. I get Definitely Red but twice at the end of this flat season have been suckered into Brian Ellison gambles (Balti Boys at Ascot and Semour in the November handicap) and have started to become wary of the stable.Tea For two another obvious contender given how well the stable does in this race but price now about right. Surprised but happy Join The Clan wasnt declared. Ground still soft, apparantly, but will still be a tough old slog. |
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I have backed Definitely Red, and I share the concern re the trainer. I too was convinced Seymour had a real chance. To finish last was a surprise to say the least.
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I backed Tea for Two early in the week, so happy he is favourite... but cant resist having a few quid on BATAVIR @ 20/1, real decent horse, lovely weight just has to rediscover his form, but gut feeling will outrun his odds!
Good Luck all |
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Think Yala Enki 7/1 PP 4 places is a good bet has he's going
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Looks a weak renewal, no Diamond Harry, Grand Crus, Dynaste or an Aubusson lurking in the field.
If you take it that T42 fto was a pipe opener then he still could be well handicapped but the jockey is a question, she is either great or crap. I'm all over Alcala,and i love novice form. Plus PN horses always improve for their first run and even more when they have a handicap target. |
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also added ALCALA @ 16s
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I think the market is about right now but happy with my 16/1 and 14/1 Tea For Two as my sole bet in the race. Nicked a bit of 11/2 Top Notch too in the Ante Post market on Sportsbook but regretting not doing the eway double on Top Notch 11/2 and Conti 13/8. Ante Post rarely pays off these days imo so left the double alone
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well done any Baradari backers, lost count on how many times i have backed that horse
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barnsey with the forecast, well done
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Very well done Barnsey
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Nice one Barnesy - get the beers in!
Thought Ritchie McClernan set too strong a pace - was treading water 2 out for such a strong stayer. Hey-ho. |
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some forecast and better again you had it in the bag from a fair way out race was between them, nice one Barnesy
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Outstanding Barnesy - wish you'd started the thread.
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Haha thanks for the comments chaps, nice to get something right once in a while!!! Unfortunately didn't do the forecast but won a few quid
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Well done Barnesey ! great forecast there...
Interesting how changing stables or scenery has been a factor in some races so early in the season... ANNACOTTY - Paddy Power (Keighley to King) BARADARI - (Williams to Skelton) Fixed Brush Hurdle THE YOUNG MASTER - Hennesey???? I am sure this horse has changed ownership to Waley-Cohens or maybe jockey rides... Anyway will look for this trend in the horizon |
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Excellent tipping barnesey. !
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Ceremony set to go chasing
Trainer Emma Lavelle believes the time is right to send last season's Rendlesham Hurdle winner over larger obstacles after he impressed with his jumping in the Grade Three "Fixed Brush" Hurdle at Haydock last Saturday. She said: "He ran a super race at Haydock on Saturday carrying top weight as they went pretty hard up front. "He jumped the fixed brush fences beautifully and he has schooled well at home. He will definitely go novice chasing now. It might just be that he finds it a bit easier." The Andover handler is also aiming to find a suitable opportunity for Private Malone to open his account over fences before the year is out. After rattling up a hat-trick of wins over hurdles last season, the six-year-old was denied a win on his chasing debut at Haydock on Friday when edged out in a three-runner affair by the Paul Nicholls-trained Silsol. She said: "He just had his head up when the other horse (Silsol) put his down. He ran a super race and jumped really well. "It was heartbreaking that he didn't get his just reward for it. He is a lovely horse and he has come out of that race really well. "There are no easy novice chase races now because there are not many dotted around, but we will try to get him out in two or three weeks. "We will just try to get his head in front before drawing up any big plans. "He is a real galloper and he handled the ground. Ultimately three miles will be his trip, but I didn't want to get him having a slog over three miles first time out." |