Greatwood Hurdle Trends Analysis

Good work Joci.

I've got Nabucco doubled up with Anacotty 10 & 20 for a few quid. Won on heavy notice. Be nice very nice in fact. Happy first 4.

In this race I have gone for RENNETI @16/1 and OLOFI 33/1 each way - both bottom half of your list Joci...

Mine all out the top 6 too, totalise, renneti, ebony express

Im a big fan of Old Guard, shame the ground has gone against him and has been muullered by the handicapper for winning just 2 races in his career. could easily be rated 135 if trained by a nobody.

Olifi appeals to me too, a different jockey is a massive positive too.

Not sure on the Olofi jockey booking myself, not the greatest record riding for George....beaten every time put up....11/8,11/4,12/1,20/1,7/1,20/1,11/4,8/1,7/2,25/1,40/1,7/2

On a separate note, I rarely listen to information much preferring old fashioned study but had a good word for Unowhatimeanharry 315 Cheltenham. Does look to have a strong chance too and been backed. Dont shoot the messenger....

Final ratings taking price movements and defections into consideration:

Devilment 83%
Nabucco 70%
Days Of Heaven 66%
Old Guard 65%
Mick Jazz 62%
Superb Story 62%
Ebony Express 60%
Renneti 59%
Goodwood Mirage 58%
Bidourey 55%
Mad Jack Mytton 47%
Dexcite 47%
Bouvreuil 44%
Totalize 42%
Waxies Dargle 39%
Olofi 24%
Redera 6%

Old Guard came in to 12/1 which at the off, would have given him a rating of 75% instead of 65% (as 12/1 was the 'cut-off' price for the last winners).

Price is not one of my favourite factors to include in the trends, as you can never know the outcome for certain for lots of horses until 'the off'.

No luck for me in the Greatwood but the tip I got hosed up

Kipper you're a star and thank - you. Nabucco would have been very good but hey ho. Bread back on the table dom pom in the fridge.

Thanks Liberator

Kipper - thanks from me too. I jumped on too after reading your post. Much appreciated. Keep 'em coming !!! Cheers.

Glad you were on, cheers

It is a interesting read - not sure about the price factor you have ststed, but having said that getting the winner in the top 4 aint that bad at all...

Devilment 6th
Nabucco 9th
Days Of Heaven 16th
Old Guard 1st
Mick Jazz PU
Superb Story 2nd
Ebony Express 13th
Renneti 4th
Goodwood Mirage 9th
Bidourey 12th
Mad Jack Mytton 14th
Dexcite 11th
Bouvreuil 15th
Totalize 5th
Waxies Dargle 3rd
Olofi 10th
Redera 7th

They've not really performed too well over the last weekend, but you can't win them all. I'll try and persist and see if a decent winner can be unearthed.

not to bad at all

in timeform terms he had the winner needing to find 20lbs,cant wait to see one he gets completely  wrong, things in his own words it was top 2 and devilment well clear of the field

It's highly likely I'll get something completely wrong in the very near future.

Joci your trend analysis is always a great read well done and as with trends sometimes they come right sometimes unseen variables come in to play

Joci, Saying that the ratings were compromised by not knowing the SP is a bit like saying that jumping the last five lengths clear would have given him a rating of 98%. Almost all winners of valuable handicaps these days shorten up in the minutes before the off.

sounds like an andy richmond theory,must be good some loons went short in running

if starting price is a trend is that your tissue prices or bookmakers prices,surely that only helps in next years race

Nov 16, 2015 -- 12:54PM, li wrote:

Joci, Saying that the ratings were compromised by not knowing the SP is a bit like saying that jumping the last five lengths clear would have given him a rating of 98%. Almost all winners of valuable handicaps these days shorten up in the minutes before the off.

Almost all horses in valuable handicaps these days shorten up before the off!

That's why SP is not one of my favourite trends as you can only know (virtually for sure) that some horses will qualify, and then use the latest available prices in the morning to try and finalise things. At the off, Old Guard would have qualified and it would have pushed him into 2nd highest rating....without hitting the 12/1 threshold, he would have been 4th highest rated. Doesn't make sense to some it seems, and I know it doesn't help people too much, but I'm just trying to clarify things. I'm not making any claims here remember, only trying to identify the most likely winners using the trends and provide updates as I see fit.

As many have said, trends in conjunction with form study, is a much better 'tool' for finding winners.