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JOCI Club
09 Nov 15 21:42
Joined:
Date Joined: 13 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 23,205 | Blogger: JOCI Club's blog
Here's the trend ratings for the Paddy Power Chase:

Splash Of Ginge14     100%
Art Mauresque21     93%
Generous Ransom21     93%

Ptit Zig14     89%
Irish Cavalier36     89%
Present View14     86%
Cocktails At Dawn35     82%
Kings Palace248     79%
Easter Day12     79%
Annacotty218     76%
Oscar Rock49     75%
Boondooma21     72%
Cloud Creeper36     72%
La Vaticane245     68%
Buywise20     66%
Shanpallas34     62%
The Clock Leary350     56%
Double Ross14     55%
Little Jon28     53%
Sound Investment20     52%
Croco Bay41     48%
Darna218     47%
Next Sensation21     45%
Johns Spirit20     44%
Monetaire196     41%
Astracad21     36%
Bennys Mist14     21%
Turn Over Sivola21     19%
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Report HaylingBilly November 10, 2015 9:03 AM GMT
Thanks JOCI. Very interesting as ever. Will be watching your trends ratings very closely this season. Am becoming more of a trends believer. Cheers.
Report bonnie November 10, 2015 11:50 AM GMT
how are the percentages calculated ?
Report JOCI Club November 10, 2015 7:48 PM GMT
Each horse is evaluated against the key 10 year 'winner' trends for the race, and each trend is weighted by its perceived 'importance' i.e. how many of the last ten winners have satisfied a particular trend. No horses are ruled out because they haven't fulfilled a particular trend, but all are given a total score which should (in theory) identify the horses most likely to be involved at the business end.
Report JOCI Club November 12, 2015 9:27 PM GMT
Ratings after the final declaration stage:

Splash Of Ginge14     100%
Art Mauresque21     93%
Generous Ransom21     93%
Irish Cavalier36     89%

Present View14     86%
Cocktails At Dawn35     82%
Kings Palace248     79%
Annacotty218     76%
Oscar Rock49     75%
Boondooma21     72%
Cloud Creeper36     72%
Buywise20     66%
Shanpallas34     62%
Double Ross14     55%
Little Jon28 (Reserve)    53%
Sound Investment20     52%
Darna218     47%
Next Sensation21     45%
Johns Spirit20     44%
Monetaire196     41%
Bennys Mist14     21%
Turn Over Sivola21 (Reserve)    19%
Report Eeternaloptimist November 12, 2015 10:21 PM GMT
When you think the forums have outlived their purpose with bald idiots constantly fighting over a comb you read interesting and insightful threads like this one which restore your faith. Bravo JOCI. I hope at the very least you get the tricast up. Always enjoy reading others analysis although it's a race I haven't got involved with for a few years.
Report 1st time poster November 13, 2015 7:43 PM GMT
strange trends which have johns spirit,monetaire, in the bottom 4 ,must have decent chances on course,big field handicap form alone
Report JOCI Club November 13, 2015 8:15 PM GMT
Well, Monetaire is marked down due to:

25 nine year olds have attempted this during the last ten years and none have been successful (8 have placed)

Horses carrying higher weights have been favoured in recent runnings

Has run in more than the optimal number of chases

Never won at Cheltenham which is a big advantage

Hasn't won a chase over the required distance range

Not a 2nd / 3rd season chaser


So, plenty against the horse trends wise. That doesn't mean it can't or won't win though, it just hasn't got the right fit from a trends perspective. For similar reasons, John's Spirit is overlooked in that the handicapper knows too much about him in effect.

Good luck with whoever you go for though.

These trends performed with credit at the last two Cheltenham Festivals, highlighting some big price winners, but conversely on occasion, one or two of the very lowly rated horses did win races, so it proves they are only a guide.
Report TYSON 2 November 13, 2015 8:19 PM GMT
totally agree with your thinking, use similar trends myself, just not as many! helps me reduce 6 to 2. well done and good luck.
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 13, 2015 8:32 PM GMT
Just need to use trends with your own train of thought imo, trends often lead to an overpriced winner over time that makes it worthwhile.

Horse like Monetaire for example, i would never ever bet on, ok he might had been 2 stone well in at the beginning but he had his chance and has no course wins.

Johns Spirit is a trends nightmare, proven high rated horse. This race is usually won by a 2nd season novice who is well in.
Report IrisDeBalme November 13, 2015 9:07 PM GMT
might be wrong but that list is skewed by the perceived 'importance' that can have a thread on its own ...

interesting though to see the top 6 finishers tomorrow... against your list joci...

fwiw, I think the winner lies between the position 7 to 11 bracket.
Report JOCI Club November 13, 2015 9:17 PM GMT
'Perceived importance' here just means that a trend where 10 out of the last 10 winners have fulfilled that trend gets a 100% weighting or a score of 1.0, whereas a trend where only 6 out of the last ten winners have achieved it, gets a lower weighting of 60% or a score of 0.6. In other words, each trend can be weighted slightly differently, and are not all given the same importance in determining the likely outcome.

May be flawed logic, but it's what I use.
Report JOCI Club November 14, 2015 12:51 PM GMT
Backed the top 3 in a tri-cast small stakes. Grin
Report JOCI Club November 14, 2015 3:08 PM GMT
Splash Of Ginge14     100% (7th)
Art Mauresque21     93% (6th)
Generous Ransom21     93% (15th)
Irish Cavalier36     89% (5th)
Present View14     86% (PU)
Cocktails At Dawn35     82% (14th)
Kings Palace248     79% (11th)
Annacotty218     76% (1st)
Oscar Rock49     75% (12th)
Boondooma21     72% (PU)
Cloud Creeper36     72% (13th)
Buywise20     66% (2nd)
Shanpallas34     62% (PU)
Double Ross14     55% (4th)
Sound Investment20     52% (3rd)
Darna218     47% (PU)
Next Sensation21     45% (10th)
Johns Spirit20     44% (9th)
Monetaire196     41% (8th)
Bennys Mist14     21% (PU)

Annacotty failed two key trends which basically describe how 'exposed' the horse is, in that it had run more than the optimum number of times over fences and run in more than the optimum number of handicap chases.
Report IrisDeBalme November 14, 2015 8:53 PM GMT

         IrisDeBalme   

  13 Nov 15 21:07 
Joined:   17 Jul 04      | Topic/replies: 1,342  | Blogger: IrisDeBalme's blog   

might be wrong but that list is skewed by the perceived 'importance' that can have a thread on its own ...

interesting though to see the top 6 finishers tomorrow... against your list joci...

fwiw, I think the winner lies between the position 7 to 11 bracket.


Annacotty did fit a lot of trends but agree would not have been the obvious choice... and I think this horse was really around the leap of faith bracket... change of scenery etc, but yeah systems have to be tried over a period of time and cant be taken on a one off ... look forward to your next analysis Joci Club... this was a really tricky race to prevail in.
Report timnic1 November 17, 2015 10:10 AM GMT
Always an interesting read. Any early views on the Hennessy JOCI? Been quite a good race for 'trends' over recent years.
Report JOCI Club November 17, 2015 7:54 PM GMT
Waiting a bit longer for the filed size to narrow down a bit. Almost done with the Betfair Chase though.
Report JOCI Club November 17, 2015 7:54 PM GMT
field size
Report PeteTheBloke November 17, 2015 8:25 PM GMT
What I like about JOCI is that he never bigs up his stats, never makes excuses, just presents it
as it is and stays polite to everyone. Well done, mate.
Report roobuck November 17, 2015 8:28 PM GMT
Well said Pete
Report IrisDeBalme November 18, 2015 7:00 PM GMT
very true - comes across very relaxed and experienced to know that stats are long term strategy not short term... so no panic...
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