Paddy Power Trends Analysis

Thanks JOCI. Very interesting as ever. Will be watching your trends ratings very closely this season. Am becoming more of a trends believer. Cheers.

how are the percentages calculated ?

Each horse is evaluated against the key 10 year 'winner' trends for the race, and each trend is weighted by its perceived 'importance' i.e. how many of the last ten winners have satisfied a particular trend. No horses are ruled out because they haven't fulfilled a particular trend, but all are given a total score which should (in theory) identify the horses most likely to be involved at the business end.

Ratings after the final declaration stage:

Splash Of Ginge14     100%
Art Mauresque21     93%
Generous Ransom21     93%
Irish Cavalier36     89%
Present View14     86%
Cocktails At Dawn35     82%
Kings Palace248     79%
Annacotty218     76%
Oscar Rock49     75%
Boondooma21     72%
Cloud Creeper36     72%
Buywise20     66%
Shanpallas34     62%
Double Ross14     55%
Little Jon28 (Reserve)    53%
Sound Investment20     52%
Darna218     47%
Next Sensation21     45%
Johns Spirit20     44%
Monetaire196     41%
Bennys Mist14     21%
Turn Over Sivola21 (Reserve)    19%

When you think the forums have outlived their purpose with bald idiots constantly fighting over a comb you read interesting and insightful threads like this one which restore your faith. Bravo JOCI. I hope at the very least you get the tricast up. Always enjoy reading others analysis although it's a race I haven't got involved with for a few years.

strange trends which have johns spirit,monetaire, in the bottom 4 ,must have decent chances on course,big field handicap form alone

Well, Monetaire is marked down due to:

25 nine year olds have attempted this during the last ten years and none have been successful (8 have placed)

Horses carrying higher weights have been favoured in recent runnings

Has run in more than the optimal number of chases

Never won at Cheltenham which is a big advantage

Hasn't won a chase over the required distance range

Not a 2nd / 3rd season chaser


So, plenty against the horse trends wise. That doesn't mean it can't or won't win though, it just hasn't got the right fit from a trends perspective. For similar reasons, John's Spirit is overlooked in that the handicapper knows too much about him in effect.

Good luck with whoever you go for though.

These trends performed with credit at the last two Cheltenham Festivals, highlighting some big price winners, but conversely on occasion, one or two of the very lowly rated horses did win races, so it proves they are only a guide.

totally agree with your thinking, use similar trends myself, just not as many! helps me reduce 6 to 2. well done and good luck.

Just need to use trends with your own train of thought imo, trends often lead to an overpriced winner over time that makes it worthwhile.

Horse like Monetaire for example, i would never ever bet on, ok he might had been 2 stone well in at the beginning but he had his chance and has no course wins.

Johns Spirit is a trends nightmare, proven high rated horse. This race is usually won by a 2nd season novice who is well in.

might be wrong but that list is skewed by the perceived 'importance' that can have a thread on its own ...

interesting though to see the top 6 finishers tomorrow... against your list joci...

fwiw, I think the winner lies between the position 7 to 11 bracket.

'Perceived importance' here just means that a trend where 10 out of the last 10 winners have fulfilled that trend gets a 100% weighting or a score of 1.0, whereas a trend where only 6 out of the last ten winners have achieved it, gets a lower weighting of 60% or a score of 0.6. In other words, each trend can be weighted slightly differently, and are not all given the same importance in determining the likely outcome.

May be flawed logic, but it's what I use.

Backed the top 3 in a tri-cast small stakes.

Splash Of Ginge14     100% (7th)
Art Mauresque21     93% (6th)
Generous Ransom21     93% (15th)
Irish Cavalier36     89% (5th)
Present View14     86% (PU)
Cocktails At Dawn35     82% (14th)
Kings Palace248     79% (11th)
Annacotty218     76% (1st)
Oscar Rock49     75% (12th)
Boondooma21     72% (PU)
Cloud Creeper36     72% (13th)
Buywise20     66% (2nd)
Shanpallas34     62% (PU)
Double Ross14     55% (4th)
Sound Investment20     52% (3rd)
Darna218     47% (PU)
Next Sensation21     45% (10th)
Johns Spirit20     44% (9th)
Monetaire196     41% (8th)
Bennys Mist14     21% (PU)

Annacotty failed two key trends which basically describe how 'exposed' the horse is, in that it had run more than the optimum number of times over fences and run in more than the optimum number of handicap chases.

         IrisDeBalme   

  13 Nov 15 21:07 
Joined:   17 Jul 04      | Topic/replies: 1,342  | Blogger: IrisDeBalme's blog   

might be wrong but that list is skewed by the perceived 'importance' that can have a thread on its own ...

interesting though to see the top 6 finishers tomorrow... against your list joci...

fwiw, I think the winner lies between the position 7 to 11 bracket.

Annacotty did fit a lot of trends but agree would not have been the obvious choice... and I think this horse was really around the leap of faith bracket... change of scenery etc, but yeah systems have to be tried over a period of time and cant be taken on a one off ... look forward to your next analysis Joci Club... this was a really tricky race to prevail in.

Always an interesting read. Any early views on the Hennessy JOCI? Been quite a good race for 'trends' over recent years.

Waiting a bit longer for the filed size to narrow down a bit. Almost done with the Betfair Chase though.

field size

What I like about JOCI is that he never bigs up his stats, never makes excuses, just presents it
as it is and stays polite to everyone. Well done, mate.

Well said Pete

very true - comes across very relaxed and experienced to know that stats are long term strategy not short term... so no panic...