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With such a good thread going on for the 1000, I wandered if we could get a similar one for the 2000.
Obviously AFB is a short fav but I'm far from convinced he is a good thing. Will he train on? War Command won a dewhurst and then did nothing. Anyone have stats 're War Front Colts at 3?
The only thing I have done is Marcel at 33s. Thought that was a little generous especially with JV franking the form today in France
Obviously AFB is a short fav but I'm far from convinced he is a good thing. Will he train on? War Command won a dewhurst and then did nothing. Anyone have stats 're War Front Colts at 3?
The only thing I have done is Marcel at 33s. Thought that was a little generous especially with JV franking the form today in France
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As I said before, I was at Newmarket for the Dewhurst and backed Emotionless, shame it chipped a bone although I don't think it would have won anyway in retrospect. When Ryan Moore came into the winners enclosure, he had a face like a Cheshire Cat and was shaking his head as if in disbelief, I was stood close to this and the first thing he said when he saw AOB was wow. On the basis of that its a 1-2 shot in my eyes and I'm luckily enough to have it in a juicy treble and I doubled it with 4 winners at the Cheltenham Festival, I've never seen a jockey look so surprised (apart from Geraghty after his hearing)
I backed AFB in the Dewhurst as I thought he only had Emotionless to beat and I wasn't sure quite how good that one was. To be honest I might have left the race alone only for Tabor's comments, I don't make bets just on someone else's say so but if I have a view on the form and respected connections are bullish about the horse's current well being (something I can't always be sure about) then it can make the difference. In Gp1 terms I thought the rest of the field were crap, I still do, so while it was a good performance, one that could even be good enough to win a mediocre Guineas, I didn't rate it a wow performance. Even if he wins the Guineas it'll be interesting to see if he's the future superstar that's being claimed. If he does prove to be then it's hats off to those who predicted it at this stage, as it's something I haven't seen yet.
Just a couple of points that might put the cat amongst the pigeons concerning trends. Going back to a thread with longevity from The_LUFCwaffe on ‘Typical 2000 Guineas Winner - Early or Late Foal?’ - Air Force Blue had a very late foaling date – 2nd May. Also American bred colts have a poor record in the 2000 Guineas.
As from 6pm onwards on 28th April to 6pm 1st May light / moderate / patchy / heavy rain showers have been predicted for Newmarket Racecourse. Let's hope the ground is not the sole deciding factor to the identity of the winner.
From 28th April to 1st May anywhere between 3.6mm to 6mm of rain per day, and on 2nd May a whopping 14.7mm predicted.
I have always tended to want to oppose strong favs. I felt perhaps Frankel might be tapped for speed in the Guineas ...
I've scrutinised every aspect of AFB and I'm finding it very difficult to spot a weakness. He showed lots of speed in the Phoenix, sailing through unextended. He looked remarkably uncomplicated in a slow run National, racing amenably without cover, cantering all over Herald The Dawn (beaten 3l in the Lagardere) and winning on the bridle. So what would he find for pressure in the Dewhurst? Well, he was certainly asked the question by Moore, and a 6l beating of Sanus per Aquam is pretty persuasive on the book, although he was being ridden pretty hard to get past SPA and the winning margin might have been flattering owing to the others running out of steam. Nevertheless, my speed figure for him was well up to scratch, two pounds better than Dawn Approach, not mind-blowing but very hard to beat. Those credentials, plus the absence of an obvious challenger, a market rival of substance, makes it very hard to oppose him.
So I tried again and looked at his Dewhurst run. I'd be interested to hear other views on this, but the horse seemed to me to be looking a bit clumsy when initially put under pressure. His head seemed to be lugging right, perhaps staring at the crowds, and Moore had to make a sustained effort to correct it. Having said that, the horse did keep finding and it's very hard to crab what he achieved. Whether his final furlong is evidence of a strong finishing, stamina laden horse or whether the others simply wilted quite quickly is impossible for me to say. I wonder what might happen if there's a horse good enough to go with him for a furlong under pressure, but where is that horse?
Then there's the pedigree. As Madhu says, US bred horses have a poor record in the race. You couldn't say he's certain to get the mile on pedigree, or even that he's certain to train on. The Guineas mile is demanding not because of the track but the type of race it turns out to be - a sustained, straight gallop. Look at the record of sprinting sires in the race over the past 20 years: terrible. One of the few two year old races of a similar type is the Coventry, which he wasn't quite good enough to win, albeit lacking experience at the time. In terms of training on, Declaration of War is the one truly persuasive precedent for this sire being able to get top class older turf horses in Europe.
So there's my two penny worth. I want to oppose him on paper but on the track he has done so little wrong, and where are the alternatives? Blue De Vega's case seems stronger with every day that passes since he last ran. I think Stormy Antarctic is decent each way value if there's give in the ground due to his hold up style looking ideal for coming late off a strong pace.
I've scrutinised every aspect of AFB and I'm finding it very difficult to spot a weakness. He showed lots of speed in the Phoenix, sailing through unextended. He looked remarkably uncomplicated in a slow run National, racing amenably without cover, cantering all over Herald The Dawn (beaten 3l in the Lagardere) and winning on the bridle. So what would he find for pressure in the Dewhurst? Well, he was certainly asked the question by Moore, and a 6l beating of Sanus per Aquam is pretty persuasive on the book, although he was being ridden pretty hard to get past SPA and the winning margin might have been flattering owing to the others running out of steam. Nevertheless, my speed figure for him was well up to scratch, two pounds better than Dawn Approach, not mind-blowing but very hard to beat. Those credentials, plus the absence of an obvious challenger, a market rival of substance, makes it very hard to oppose him.
So I tried again and looked at his Dewhurst run. I'd be interested to hear other views on this, but the horse seemed to me to be looking a bit clumsy when initially put under pressure. His head seemed to be lugging right, perhaps staring at the crowds, and Moore had to make a sustained effort to correct it. Having said that, the horse did keep finding and it's very hard to crab what he achieved. Whether his final furlong is evidence of a strong finishing, stamina laden horse or whether the others simply wilted quite quickly is impossible for me to say. I wonder what might happen if there's a horse good enough to go with him for a furlong under pressure, but where is that horse?
Then there's the pedigree. As Madhu says, US bred horses have a poor record in the race. You couldn't say he's certain to get the mile on pedigree, or even that he's certain to train on. The Guineas mile is demanding not because of the track but the type of race it turns out to be - a sustained, straight gallop. Look at the record of sprinting sires in the race over the past 20 years: terrible. One of the few two year old races of a similar type is the Coventry, which he wasn't quite good enough to win, albeit lacking experience at the time. In terms of training on, Declaration of War is the one truly persuasive precedent for this sire being able to get top class older turf horses in Europe.
So there's my two penny worth. I want to oppose him on paper but on the track he has done so little wrong, and where are the alternatives? Blue De Vega's case seems stronger with every day that passes since he last ran. I think Stormy Antarctic is decent each way value if there's give in the ground due to his hold up style looking ideal for coming late off a strong pace.
I just cannot back AFB on his own as it represents no value at all as AFB is no penalty kick unlike Douvan, Vautour, Thistlecrack, etc. And of the two O'Brien's Minding, with the form and ground to suit, represents much better value if ready for the 1000G.
I can see Stormy Antarctic, if settles early and ground (soft/heavy) conducive, causing a major upset.
I can see Stormy Antarctic, if settles early and ground (soft/heavy) conducive, causing a major upset.
From 28th April to 1st May anywhere between 3.6mm to 6mm of rain per day, and on 2nd May a whopping 14.7mm predicted.
Sorry but this far in advance the weather forecasters could barely tell you what day of the week it will be on May 2nd, let alone how much rain there might be. Besides which the race is on April 30th.
Sorry but this far in advance the weather forecasters could barely tell you what day of the week it will be on May 2nd, let alone how much rain there might be. Besides which the race is on April 30th.
I'm no weather expert but that's what is on the 14 day Horse Racing Weather for Newmarket Racecourse; I know the race itself is on 30th (sat) but by then at least 8mm of rain would have fallen since 28th.
then somebody puts up to back it at 15 for £500 wen its 20 with hills mistake I feel its all gone now
Emotionless out of 2000 Gns
is anything being backed against the fav?
is anything being backed against the fav?
Not a total major surprise given evidence of that gallop - the 2000G has come too soon - maybe the Epsom Derby perhaps.
I dont think anyone trusts a Godolphin train horse to make anyrace antepost , normally get injured or they change their minds.
Poor play from Appleby. Gave a positive report on a horse people said didn't look up to much. Some of us were waiting to hear about that gallop. Doesn't look like much of a guineas.
Why do they have to mess around with the racing calendar? If the Guineas was run at its traditional time in January when Emotionless was flying it could have been a very different story imo...
blue de vega is also going to b a non runner according to ere matched at 44 just no backers
as said earlier on this thred I was at the craven meeting all 3 days and watched all the gallops of the various classic hopefuls;i had much anticipation as I had £250 @16/1 EMOTIONLESS early January and to say it galloped/worked abysmally would be understating its performance I knew I had done me cash last week to be honest.out of the racecourse gallops last week ONLY BURATINO was out of the ordinary it quickened impressively and drew right away from its lead horse re emotionlessthey have put everyone away with its wellbeing homework etc as it is plainly obvious it will never be the same horse post the knee injury.
Trainer comments Sinfin - will "probably" skip it as taking time to come to hand.
The weather forecast has changed significantly for Newmarket Racecourse next week with 8.9mm of rain expected on 28th and little or none right into the weekend.
Whats your prediction for the going on the Saturday mate?
I'd say no worse than good ground as the course drains really well.
if thats the case does balldoyle not now look a silly price for the 1000?
i know wrong thread but has only been 120k matched on 1000 vs 250k on 2000 which is surely offensive to women
i know wrong thread but has only been 120k matched on 1000 vs 250k on 2000 which is surely offensive to women
2mm of rain expected on 1st May, and Ballydoyle will only run if ground was fast, according to trainer.
he said on stable tour she wants G or GF - wouldnt want soft? as opposed to needing GF
good to firm would make Minding a non runner...thats why shes left in i reckon.
Interesting comments from AOB this morning about AFB that he is all speed and may not be best at a mile and could go back in trip later in the season if does not get the mile. Looking at his DI of 2.64 he is not nailed on to get the trip and looking back over the last 56 years only 13 horses have won with a higher DI however he is all class and the 3 year old colts do not seem up to much this year so will probably still win easily. I was impressed with stormy Antarctic in the craven who looked to have thrived over the winter so have had a small bet each way
I think Massaat is the main, and probably only, danger.
No reason why he should beat AFB on their Dewhurst running - AFB was hardly stopping at the end of the 7f so hard to think the mile is going to be an issue unless he is really fresh and runs to keen.
No reason why he should beat AFB on their Dewhurst running - AFB was hardly stopping at the end of the 7f so hard to think the mile is going to be an issue unless he is really fresh and runs to keen.
Taken the last of the 12/1 available on Massaat - 2pt win, 1pt place.
Only one horse to be on in this race IMO and that is MARCEL.
He might have won the RP Trophy at 33/1 and unfancied, but the cobblers about Foundation being unlucky are overplayed. MARCEL came from last to first in a matter of strides, quickened clear and stayed clear. He is proven at 1m, proven on soft ground if required, and on a line through JOHANNES VERMEER, should be 2nd fav (JV beat Stormy Antarctic).
Think he ought to go close.
He might have won the RP Trophy at 33/1 and unfancied, but the cobblers about Foundation being unlucky are overplayed. MARCEL came from last to first in a matter of strides, quickened clear and stayed clear. He is proven at 1m, proven on soft ground if required, and on a line through JOHANNES VERMEER, should be 2nd fav (JV beat Stormy Antarctic).
Think he ought to go close.
No real surprises apart from Ble De Vega still remaining in @ this stage.
yes Geoff that's strange trainer stated not ready yet y leave it in
blue de vega is rated as 50/50 by the trainer race coming to soon but did a gud bit of work at the weekend so no decision made yet
I saw the favourite a couple of times. He might deserve to be favourite but surely he is beatable. Marcel is very well thought of and so is Buratino.
Every horse is beatable as anything could happen before and during the race eg a deterioration in ground condition, traffic, etc, but on form, little doubt, all things being equal. The 2000G is AFB's to lose.
Agree with the he comments re Marcel. Fantastic value at 14/1 imo.
Everything is value because the favourite is miles clear of them all....they only gonna be chasing shadows. Irrespective of improving from 2 to 3, i dont think AFB has to.....weakest 2000 Guineas for years in my opinion.
Galileo Gold has a place shout at 25\1. I'd backed him for the French equivalent, which i think along with French derby could be more his race. If it's no better than good he could run on well, although i'd be wondering if newmarket is for frankie or the horse. I'd still have waited the extra 2 weeks, but what do i know ?
GILLJAY if i had to pick a winner it would be AFB. I understand your confidence, but O'Brien makes the same superlative claims annualy, in hope that the opposition are so lacking that they make his horse appear better than what it is by default. I think AFB is the proverbial good thing because Buratino is a commonwealth or jersey horse, Galileo Gold might want it a bit softer, and everything else falls short. We will see what happens.
That we will mate...Some interesting comments on here, you can pick out nice pieces of form for most of the field obviously or they would be running at Yarmouth.
Are the French Guineas being run at Deauville this year?
If so would the ground normally be softer there than Longchamp
Ta
If so would the ground normally be softer there than Longchamp
Ta
Everything is value because the favourite is miles clear of them all
If your assessment of his chances at 1/2 are correct then it's the fav that is the value at current odds.
they only gonna be chasing shadows
Even if you're right and he should be a 1/2 chance that still means there's a 1 in 3 chance he'll be beaten, so not exactly a certainty.
If your assessment of his chances at 1/2 are correct then it's the fav that is the value at current odds.
they only gonna be chasing shadows
Even if you're right and he should be a 1/2 chance that still means there's a 1 in 3 chance he'll be beaten, so not exactly a certainty.
I consider it to be a certainty based on his form, his odds have nothing to do with his ability.
AFB could win easily alternatively he could be a sprinter....everything has a price where you can pay to find out either way
If the race was today I'd back AFB at 1/2, the next few days would decrease his certainty of winning against these group of competitors not on given form but external event/s.
Hopefully the ground will be no slower than gd come sat's Classic. Only soft ground would be my concern for AFB, granted gd or faster he will win the 2000gns.
Good to soft I`d say based on the weather forecast for round Newmarket between now and Saturday. I would say no chance of being any faster than good. Going stick around 7 ish.
Massaat drifted markedly on here (11/1 out to as big as 20/1) in the last 24 hours.
Trainer in fine form with Gifted Master looking pretty decent, 2/2 this season.
oddly enough, Galileo Gold is not a son of the great man himself
Blue De Vega, Bravery, Shogun and Taqdeer were the four defectors as 13 colts were declared for Saturday's QIPCO 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.
I am not yet convinced with AFB, his price is just silly,the gap or perceived gap on his form, does not merit such as short price. Now, of course, he can win, but looking away from the obvious for a minute, Marcel is of interest e/w,and the other Air force could conceivably improve for the distance,but does need to find improvement, those two offer more scope than most.
Fav the winner with the Craven winner booked for second.
Latest going report:
Report Date Thursday 28th April; 3:15 pm
Going Good
GoingStick 7.5, (Stand Side 7.7; Centre 7.8; Far Side 7.3), on Thursday at 13:00
Report Date Thursday 28th April; 3:15 pm
Going Good
GoingStick 7.5, (Stand Side 7.7; Centre 7.8; Far Side 7.3), on Thursday at 13:00
a desperate affair for a guineas class wise and a guineas lacking any real strength in depth which is continuing a recent trend for 3 year old milers (bar frankel) as breeding continues to be drawn down class wise, with breeders continuing to use gambled on sires, unproven at producing decent class bloodstock
this bares out with war front who is proving a decent sire no more, siring the favorite here and stormy atlantic siring his namesake the second fav, he is nothing more than an average stakes race progeny producer, the longer the breed gets stretched the more the breed gets weakened, with mares with weak bloodlines then producing weak class wise progeny
anyway moving onto the race and a strong favorite here with air force blue leading the market, he produced a really good debut performance at the curragh when making all to win, this may have been against him next time at ascot when restraining tactics were used, as he pulled hard and was caught mid track with no cover, he still ran well but buratino who was also free in the race just a tad more battle hardened, nailed him after looking like winning with a furlong to run, i'd say he learnt plenty from this run as he has gradually learnt to drop the bit and improved significantly on his next 3 starts for hold up tactics
i like others don't have AFB doing anything special but i thought his phoenix win was a top class performance from a juvenile, although like most of his races he has run in, a muddling pace has been the order of the day and he has just shown a nice turn of foot to win...the dewhurst on the other hand they appeared to go a decent pace with just class prevailing, as the horses he beat could not sustain the fractions they were setting, this for me was the fact these horses just weren't good enough and in all fairness they didn't look good enough pre race...
he has a mixed pedigree that says he maybe a sprinter but chatham the mother who just sprinted in her career was probably just useless, is by marias son who has produced kentucky derby winners so it does offer plenty of hope imo
he is a keen type however and i'd imagine you could take 4/6 in running anyway, even if he drops the bit so if backing a short one is your thing i'd back in running... i just couldn't bring myself to back him at the odds but the race hasn't much depth so what price should he be, well for me he should be 4/5 at least here... everyone keeps saying aiden o'brien is flying at the moment, in which i'd answer yes he is, at dundalk and other gaff tracks but he isn't turning up any trees imo anywhere else, anyway 4/6 is the price no thx here
of the other horses i'm actually really keen on stormy atlantic ew here, a thoroughly progressive colt who just keeps giving, he for me ran up against one of the best 2 year olds last year in johanne vermeer in france just narrowly failing after going the inside route without cover, everyone keeps saying he needs cut but his pedigree says he'll love better ground and i'd put his run at ascot purely down to being backward rather than him not acting on the surface he rates a solid chance for me and if johanne vermeer were running i'd be all over him
people will argue well if you like the vermeer horse so much you must like marcel here who beat him at doncaster and yes i do i just want to see him back up his run really, although i'm certainly going to balance my book with him he rates the value, although he looked like he had a lot to do physically and may just need this race if he doesn't and doesn't need soft ground he has to go well
massaat looks like he'll be a better 3 year old for his rookie trainer, he got beat on debut by a nice horse although had to go to a gaff track to break his maiden, i am struggling to get an angle on him yet, hopefully this race will tell me more
buratino looked a decent 2 year old surely something will improve past him
galileo gold is a gamble here a progressive 2 year old plenty on here though surely
there are some likely rags with jim bolger having his string pretty forward i'd say he is expecting a big run from herald the dawn, ribchester is interesting but if i had to have a stab at one at big odds its zonderland nice maiden win after problems and i just wonder whether he could be a horse to follow this season, anyway i've pizzed on enough should be a good race hopefully the weather stays fine
this bares out with war front who is proving a decent sire no more, siring the favorite here and stormy atlantic siring his namesake the second fav, he is nothing more than an average stakes race progeny producer, the longer the breed gets stretched the more the breed gets weakened, with mares with weak bloodlines then producing weak class wise progeny
anyway moving onto the race and a strong favorite here with air force blue leading the market, he produced a really good debut performance at the curragh when making all to win, this may have been against him next time at ascot when restraining tactics were used, as he pulled hard and was caught mid track with no cover, he still ran well but buratino who was also free in the race just a tad more battle hardened, nailed him after looking like winning with a furlong to run, i'd say he learnt plenty from this run as he has gradually learnt to drop the bit and improved significantly on his next 3 starts for hold up tactics
i like others don't have AFB doing anything special but i thought his phoenix win was a top class performance from a juvenile, although like most of his races he has run in, a muddling pace has been the order of the day and he has just shown a nice turn of foot to win...the dewhurst on the other hand they appeared to go a decent pace with just class prevailing, as the horses he beat could not sustain the fractions they were setting, this for me was the fact these horses just weren't good enough and in all fairness they didn't look good enough pre race...
he has a mixed pedigree that says he maybe a sprinter but chatham the mother who just sprinted in her career was probably just useless, is by marias son who has produced kentucky derby winners so it does offer plenty of hope imo
he is a keen type however and i'd imagine you could take 4/6 in running anyway, even if he drops the bit so if backing a short one is your thing i'd back in running... i just couldn't bring myself to back him at the odds but the race hasn't much depth so what price should he be, well for me he should be 4/5 at least here... everyone keeps saying aiden o'brien is flying at the moment, in which i'd answer yes he is, at dundalk and other gaff tracks but he isn't turning up any trees imo anywhere else, anyway 4/6 is the price no thx here
of the other horses i'm actually really keen on stormy atlantic ew here, a thoroughly progressive colt who just keeps giving, he for me ran up against one of the best 2 year olds last year in johanne vermeer in france just narrowly failing after going the inside route without cover, everyone keeps saying he needs cut but his pedigree says he'll love better ground and i'd put his run at ascot purely down to being backward rather than him not acting on the surface he rates a solid chance for me and if johanne vermeer were running i'd be all over him
people will argue well if you like the vermeer horse so much you must like marcel here who beat him at doncaster and yes i do i just want to see him back up his run really, although i'm certainly going to balance my book with him he rates the value, although he looked like he had a lot to do physically and may just need this race if he doesn't and doesn't need soft ground he has to go well
massaat looks like he'll be a better 3 year old for his rookie trainer, he got beat on debut by a nice horse although had to go to a gaff track to break his maiden, i am struggling to get an angle on him yet, hopefully this race will tell me more
buratino looked a decent 2 year old surely something will improve past him
galileo gold is a gamble here a progressive 2 year old plenty on here though surely
there are some likely rags with jim bolger having his string pretty forward i'd say he is expecting a big run from herald the dawn, ribchester is interesting but if i had to have a stab at one at big odds its zonderland nice maiden win after problems and i just wonder whether he could be a horse to follow this season, anyway i've pizzed on enough should be a good race hopefully the weather stays fine
Approx 8mm of rain overnight @ Newmarket, ground now g/s :-( Not what I wanted to hear for AFB. On the up side it's to be dry sunny weather down their over the next few days, course does dry well & I would be hopefully the ground will be back to gd by racetime 2moro, poss edging towards the just on the faster side of gd come Sunday's 1000gns.
I've added a little e/w bet on Herald The Dawn - really rated him after his maiden win (posted as much on here somewhere), and while he can't beat AFB on National Stakes form he shouldn't be nearly 40/1 - his run at Longchamp was a typical French race which never suited him.
Call me nuts .But ive a hoss thats trading probably 5 times the price it should be on here.Currently 160s
First Selection
@ First glance Southwell 5 furlong debut winner doesnt suggest a hoss with an outside chance in a guineas.
But his run in the Lagadare Arc day puts him in their with a squeak of a place.
He was a neck and a head behind Galileo Gold around 3rd fav.
He was a head behind Johannes Vermeer who beat the guineas 2nd fav Stormy Atlantic
and finished in front of Herald Of The Dawn whos a quarter of his price.
Yes he had the draw and probably run of race in the Lagadare but the price is an insult to his performance in France
Front runner who will probably trade @ significantly shorter in the run if you want a nice trade @ big prices.
Just hoping some of the books offer 100s overnight for a little each way dabble.
First Selection
@ First glance Southwell 5 furlong debut winner doesnt suggest a hoss with an outside chance in a guineas.
But his run in the Lagadare Arc day puts him in their with a squeak of a place.
He was a neck and a head behind Galileo Gold around 3rd fav.
He was a head behind Johannes Vermeer who beat the guineas 2nd fav Stormy Atlantic
and finished in front of Herald Of The Dawn whos a quarter of his price.
Yes he had the draw and probably run of race in the Lagadare but the price is an insult to his performance in France
Front runner who will probably trade @ significantly shorter in the run if you want a nice trade @ big prices.
Just hoping some of the books offer 100s overnight for a little each way dabble.
Tongue tie and a noseband for the jolly. None of his other winners of the race have worn one. Remember Kings Best having the same gear on and it bolted up after not wearing it on it's previous runs.
George cannot have eaten for a week to do 9st and assuming he has done weight cannot be outside first three can it lump on large place market 5/4 and above.
Herald The Dawn has three lengths to make up with favourite but a lot can happen between 2 and 3. He may prove a good e/w bet or place only bet. I prefer the latter.
Air Force Blue has an all-American pedigree, sire side and dam side. American horses are all about early maturity.
His last 3f in the Dewhurst were fast.
Can he do that again as a 3yo, in a bigger field, on softer ground, over an extra furlong? He probably can.
I am clutching at straws, think he is worth opposing, but I am struggling to pick one.
I've backed Galileo Gold to have an interest.
His last 3f in the Dewhurst were fast.
Can he do that again as a 3yo, in a bigger field, on softer ground, over an extra furlong? He probably can.
I am clutching at straws, think he is worth opposing, but I am struggling to pick one.
I've backed Galileo Gold to have an interest.
His last 3f in the Dewhurst were fast...and his first 4 were slow.
Was at Newmarket when he won the Dewhurst and thought it was a good thing for todays race but Aiden O` Briens comments last week have stopped me lumping on.
Instead I have backed Stormy Antarctic and Galileo Gold each way.
Expect the favourite to be held up and delivered for one devastating run.We`ll see if AOB`S reservations are well founded.
Instead I have backed Stormy Antarctic and Galileo Gold each way.
Expect the favourite to be held up and delivered for one devastating run.We`ll see if AOB`S reservations are well founded.
I still think this is the weakest Guineas for years, AFB hasnt got to be anything special to win it imo.
Ground drying out all the time, early race times will be of interest, plus the wind will be behind them up the mile. Can't see AFB getting beaten myself, hope that's the case ££££
AFB ought to win (stating obvious) but took a shot with Massaat win/place in case AFB has any chinks in his armour in the last furlong. Doubt it though.
fav an insanely false price being a may foal. they generally cannot win. ribchester e/w for me. gl all
All 3 races faster than last year .Which was classed as good to firm
Obviously a tailwind but clearly drying up quickly.
So shouldnt be any concerns for Fav re ground.
Obviously a tailwind but clearly drying up quickly.
So shouldnt be any concerns for Fav re ground.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO...
WD winners....typical...get the fav beat and still finish 2nd.
Think OBRien has a poor record with first time Tongue tie horses
was never a good sign for the fav..
retirement beckons
was never a good sign for the fav..
retirement beckons
Winner was 1.4 seconds faster on Good To Soft than Frankel recorded on Good To Firm.
From memory i dont think Frankel hung about in the Guineas
From memory i dont think Frankel hung about in the Guineas
Frankel ran into a strong headwind - today there was a strong tail wind.
Great shout winners.
Made a small profit with Massaat so not too bad a result.
Made a small profit with Massaat so not too bad a result.
Very good ride from Frankie. He reeled it in a few lengths when he was out in front to make sure he didn't get too far ahead, then let it go again at the right time.
wil afb run in the irish guineas or whats the story i wonder? did anything come to light as an excuse?
in case i have to explain my profit on this race;
laid the fav in the win (1.8) place (1.17) and 4 places (1.13) markets and backed the 50/1 3rd in the place market (9).
laid the fav in the win (1.8) place (1.17) and 4 places (1.13) markets and backed the 50/1 3rd in the place market (9).
Nothing untoward showed up post the race, but O'Brien reckoned he could have overtrained AFB; AFB will try to redeem himself in the Irish equivalent.
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