Horse Antepost
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Betfair Sportsbook special market ...
To Run this Saturday - 8/11
Not To Run this Saturday - 1/1
Have got no idea what the max stake is on this but surely NOT TO RUN at EVENS is a cracking bet?
To Run this Saturday - 8/11
Not To Run this Saturday - 1/1
Have got no idea what the max stake is on this but surely NOT TO RUN at EVENS is a cracking bet?
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Replies: 26
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evs is massive. shame i cant even get 10p on let alone a ton.
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Of course it won't bloody well run!!
Gayest horse in training! |
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not sure it was the horses fault not to run tbh.
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I would guess that by Saturday the going in the straight will be Good/Good to Soft in places, similar ground to the Irish 2000 Guineas, no excuses not to run, you're not going to get much better ground in mid-October
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judging by the betting it seems likely to run. if it runs I would prefer it to so slow, but I don't fancy either of them at the odds.
The one that stands out at the betting is the fabre horse, around 14-1 on here yeah only a few pounds behind the two principals |
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ive raised the issue with the helpdesk that if Glenegales is withdrawn at the current reduction factor there will be a lot of unhappy people to deal with on the laying side. They need to monitor these markets more carefully.
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Surely with all this dry sunny weather about the ground on the str track will be near gd come 2moro??
We will know later on this evening as AOB is over to walk the track. Hope it dries out plenty 2day & he runs, i would fancy him to take Solow myself on genuine gd ground. |
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Solow every time class
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Big fan of Solow myself this season, was my Nap of Royal Ascot.
Not much between them on form over 1mile, but on gd or faster ground i would just fav the 3yo. |
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Chris Stickels gave an update today. Still good to soft on straight course. They had a bit of light rain this morning. Nothing significant.
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no decision on Gleneagles until tomorrow, AOB causing choas on the race in question, if he comes out its a huge rule 4 deduction for punters. Can't imagine the bookies are over joyed at another will they won't they run him. Betfair need to get their act together also
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Going stick at Ascot 7.1 on straight track y'day.
Last year, when heavy (soft in places) Standside 6.3 Centre 6.3 Farside 6.4 |
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O'Brien: any rain at all and Gleneagles is out
BY JACK HAYNES 3:47PM 16 OCT 2015 FEARS over Gleneagles' participation in Saturday's Queen Elizabeth II Stakes remain after trainer Aidan O'Brien said that any rain at Ascot would mean the dual Guineas winner does not race. RELATED LINKS Queen Elizabeth II card The highly-anticipated encounter with superstar Solow remains in the balance after O'Brien walked the course with Derrick Smith on Friday afternoon, though he reported the ground "only needs to dry out slightly" for the three-year-old Galileo colt to take his chance. Drying ground offers hope of a return to action for Gleneagles, who has not raced since his Royal Ascot victory in the St James's Palace Stakes in June. 'Any rain it's over' However, O'Brien said: "It's not perfect, obviously, but we're going to take him and see how it rides the first few races. We would love to run him but we want to do what's right for the horse. "The ground is very close to good in parts, although parts of it are slow. If they get any rain it's over, no chance. A millimetre of rain would be too much. We'll see how the early morning goes and then see how it rides. "It's not far away. You would hope it might tighten a little bit. When Ryan rides on it he will know very quick." The Met Office forecast for Ascot is for light rain showers during the early part of Friday evening, then remaining dry and overcast. Ryan Moore's mount sits second in the betting for Saturday's race behind Freddy Head's French sensation Solow, who has been beaten only once in his last twelve starts and looks set to go off a short-priced favourite. After a summer of frustration with engagements at York, Goodwood, Deauville and Leopardstown being scrapped, Gleneagles will arrive to Ascot fresh from a 123 day lay-off as O'Brien seeks to boost his fine record in the £1.1 million Group 1, following victories with George Washington, Rip Van Winkle and Excelebration in the last nine years. Tags: Gleneagles | A P O'Brien | ASCOT |
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why bother walking the course if not going to make a decision,
makes a mockery of the betting on this race tomorrow morning |
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What I dont get is that surely for breeding it harms him not to take his chance regarding 'softer' ground. When theyre selling this horse how are they gonna make a case for it regarding conditions. if it loses they can blame the ground if it wins its more valuable.
Frustrating. |
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@Fashion Fever, couldn't agree more the betting market on this race is now a shambles
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I have pointed out to betfair this market is completely skewed by the inappropriate reduction factor being applied at the current time and the incentive that is given to mess around with the prices.
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no rain forceast temps could reach 15 after noon
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How do they get this reduction factor? It seems totally non-scientific at the moment.
Gleneagles has been trading at around 2/1 all the time, yet the RF is still less than 20%. |
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The biggest price seems to be about 28%. The current 19% would suggest a price around 4/1 to me.
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the reduction factor is based on betfair's view, they have updated now reflecting the actual price. When there is a big chance of an important non-runner its as much about your view of the reduction factor as it is the race.
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It never occurred to me that it was based on their view. I assumed there was some maths behind it.
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Backed Solow.
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ok there felt not sure of the muhaarar bet though best of luck
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I think there used to be, it's only with this debacle that I realised they had changed it
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the reduction factors are based somewhat on maths but they are influenced by the first few trades rather than the larger flows which come later(or thats what i thought) although where they got 19% i dont know as Gleneagles never traded that price.
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