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harchibald
13 Oct 15 21:08
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Date Joined: 30 Sep 01
| Topic/replies: 592 | Blogger: harchibald's blog
No threads on here so I thought we'd kick this off.

Present View the bookies favourite.

Kings Palace 2nd best.

There's a book up here ...

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/paddy-power-gold-cup/winner

Personal view is that the Pipe horse will run and win. Mark didn't stop him trying with Grands Crus and this fella is a 'natural'.

Saw him in the flesh hose up over fences twice and me and Mrs. Pipe agreed he is simply an amazing horse.

You ?

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Replies: 277
By:
GI MAC
When: 14 Oct 15 19:01
I've always thought KP a tad overrated myself, if this was a single figure field then I might be tempted, he always looks impressive in small fields when he's not hassled. Its normally a big field run at a good pace so I can easily see him being bullied out of it.

Pipes other potential runner Monetaire is pretty inexperienced and needs genuine soft ground to win this, not really keen on him at this stage.

I'm not entirely sure why Present View is favourite, granted he ran well last year, and he'll run his race, but he slowed up the hill and he's on a higher mark this year. He needs to have improved a stone since last year for me, fair play if he is but not at the price.

Cocktails at Dawn went up 8lb after his romp at the weekend, impressive though it was I think he's blown his chances as I just dont see him as a 160+ rated chaser which he will need to be to win this.

Far West is out for the season, and Thomas Crapper is fully exposed, same might be said for John Spirit.

^ Well that's the top 7 in the market that won't win, must be something lurking at a price. Early days  and need to see entires; I'm hoping Camping Ground gets one.
By:
harchibald
When: 15 Oct 15 21:13
Paddy Power have CUT Kings Palace from 12's to 8/1 today. The RP were down at Pond House earlier this week with them too ... Interesting or hype ? This will he/won't he features every year with DEP and the team but the facts are this fella has won 5 times around Cheltenham. The race means an awful lot to this Family and David's training operation. The Pipe team revolve around this meeting - that's a fact, this is their back yard and where they have it off. To have this horse at 12's is like the year I backed Great Endeavour at 14's. I also backed Grands Crus at 12's and he went off 7/4. Kings Palace could well be a 165 + horse, that's also likely, and he won't ever get this chance off this mark again. I'm sure they won't want to bump into Many Clouds in the Charlie Hall, Possibly Don Cossack and co. in the Betfair at Haydock chasing the £1m bonus and before this lad steps up to the big time they are likely to run him at a track he has an excellent record of acting at and he is likely to have been readied for this in the previous months.

Ok so that's enough of me convincing myself to shovel more on as it could end in tears. Anyone know quite why he was cut today though ?
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 16 Oct 15 10:18
Had a good look at this race last night, and I also think KP is the stand out horse in the race. Its a pretty weak looking affair at this stage and at 12-1 he looks great value to me.

I was on him antepost for the RSA and the vibes weren't great on the day. If he can forgive him just that one run however, then he looks a big player. You cant argue with five course wins. I am unsure about this big field issue myself... think it is probably a red herring. It seemed to come about after he ran so badly in the Albert Bartlett.... but he has won a couple of races around Chelts with double figure runners. It was mooted as a positive for him in the RSA last year as it cut up to be such a small field but he still disappointed.

Maybe hes just an Autumn / early winter horse? Early seasons certainly seems to be the time to catch him.
By:
harchibald
When: 16 Oct 15 13:17
He doesn't stay 3m in Grade 1 company. That is precisely what is. seriously. Owners son said so on Twitter. Owners son also said 'go figure' what his target will be ... he should be 5/1 now but you're taking a very small chance he won't turn up. I think you get more on at 10's and across the board. Seriously.
By:
harchibald
When: 16 Oct 15 13:17
Can't Catch Me - yes re big fields, that's bull I agree.
By:
Desmond Orchard
When: 16 Oct 15 15:23
Hmmmm, I dunno. I've been a big fan of the horse, was my biggest bet of the festival in 2014 for the AB, when the Mullins horse tipped up I was counting my money, but he faded really badly.
Massively disappointing again at the Festival this year and I'm starting to wonder if he is a bit of a flat track bully who needs it all to go his way - which he won't get in a pell-mell PPGC.
Also, he's not beaten a decent horse yet. Still at double figure odds it's cheap to find out........
By:
Desmond Orchard
When: 16 Oct 15 15:24
Obvs by flat-track bully, I didn't mean actual flat tracks Laugh
By:
harchibald
When: 16 Oct 15 17:35
Desmond - That's precisely the point though. He doesn't get 3m in Grade 1 company. That is what they've said. Over lesser distances though - and I'd lump all over him for the Ryanair this year - he is evidently mustard. He's won in fields of 10 or 11 and only once raced in a field more than that (18 runners) where he fell so this pants about him not doing big fields is just that, total pants. Scu must be at home now begging to get himself ready for the ride. 8/1 generally now unless you can get on with 365, of which I personally have no chance at all anymore.
By:
harchibald
When: 16 Oct 15 17:48
Oh and as for what he's beaten - Return Spring is a Listed Hurdle winner ... I could go on
By:
roobuck
When: 16 Oct 15 18:53
He may well be the 2nd coming but all his course wins that you point to have been over 3 miles, a distance he doesn't stay? Cannot have argument both ways
By:
bungers
When: 16 Oct 15 19:25
I think the point was he doesn't stay 3m in Grade 1 races. I think he is all speed, and the combination of 2m4f and a handicap, makes this horse very over priced at 12/1. He will love the course, the ground will be fine, he is great jumper, his trainer loves the meeting, and I cant see any superstars about to oppose him...if he is fit and well he must run a huge race.
By:
roobuck
When: 16 Oct 15 20:12
You either stay 3 miles or you don't, quality of race is irrelevant.
By:
harchibald
When: 16 Oct 15 20:18
No I don't believe that, you look at him front running and pulling a cart at Cheltenham and it's quite apparent he's a bit like Un Desceaux in style. I watched all his races again today and he'll be up in the van the whole way around IMO if he runs in the Paddy Power. The owner said the Pipe view is he doesn't stay 3m in grade 1 company. That's their view. You don't have to accept it re 'having it both ways' but I'd err towards believing them personally, at least it was good enough for my money anyway chaps ...
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 16 Oct 15 20:49
Any horse can stay any distance, all dependant on pace and opposition. But to fail at 2 festivals is telling us something. He might turn out to be a 2m-2m4f horse but not a well handicapped one at that.

Al Ferof was rated 159 in this race after winning a supreme, KP is rated at (or was rated 150+) for winning nowt.
By:
harchibald
When: 16 Oct 15 22:04
He's won a grade 2 novices hurdle to be fair ... hardly 'nowt' I'm sure you'll agree ... anyway, I'm prepared to let him do the talking.

So you have any other suggestions as to likely winner then ?
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 17 Oct 15 10:43
At the moment i like cocktails at dawn/oscars rock but they are both a bit soft, Be very interested in Taquin Du Sueil if he lines up with a top jock on board.
By:
harchibald
When: 17 Oct 15 11:59
Oscars Rock pretty much goes for this doesn't he ? I think I've read that yes .... Taquin I agree with you, he can throw in some absolute stinkers but on his day there's not much better than him. French bred fits the trends of course, rated as high as 159 and with Grade 1 C&D winning form to his name, he's deffo live chance if he runs ..
By:
bungers
When: 17 Oct 15 19:19
Sorry Roobuck, bit I don't agree with that. Look at One Man, won the Hennessy Handicap pulling a cart over 3m2f, then emptied dramatically in the Gold Cup twice ( 3m 2f, Grade one. ) He also started to empty over 3m in the King George he won at Sandown, again in a better race. Ibrahima Sonko makes a good point. Does anyone have any clear idea if Kings Palace is likely to run??
By:
harchibald
When: 17 Oct 15 19:41
Yes re being a runner. Check out owners's son @thechop333 on Twitter. Go though his tweets extensively and all shall be revealed ...
By:
roobuck
When: 17 Oct 15 21:09
Bungers -  you miss my point. If your optimum distance is 3M it doesn't matter the grade. If you don't win, just could mean that horse not good enough on the day.

The point I make with Kings Palace is that all his course wins that harchibald refers to have all been over 3M. To say he doesn't stay at 3M at Grade 1 level is possible, just as likely surely is that he simply isn't a Grade 1 horse?

He may not need to be a grade 1 horse to win this handicap, not actually arguing against his chance as such
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 17 Oct 15 21:49
i backed KP at 12/1 for a little

was hoping they may held to him a bit more in this

be hard to make all but 12s was to big
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 17 Oct 15 21:54
think kp will start 3/1 or shorter
By:
unclepuncle
When: 17 Oct 15 22:25
^ I've joined in at 12/1 but the fact he is still 12/1 is actually a worry for me.Confused

It looks a very average renewal with no obvious plot horses so given his connections surely if he were definitely being aimed it and everything was going well with his training so far, he'd already be 6/1 fav?
By:
ashleigh
When: 18 Oct 15 10:01
david pipe stable tour in the post tomorrow might be informative.
By:
harchibald
When: 18 Oct 15 11:42
Ah it's tomorrow is it ? I'll be sure to download on the old iPad tonight then - 8pm it is chaps ...
By:
PedroPete12
When: 18 Oct 15 12:31
Kings Palace goes in PP gold cup according to @thechop333 on Twitter today
By:
Fabulous
When: 18 Oct 15 12:52
I've been swayed by the discussion on here, and taken a few quid at 11's, but thought it's time another horse was mentioned for the race as well Grin

Bit of a longshot, and don't even know if this would be the plan, but had a go on Double Ross at 80's to 130's. He had a really decent 13/14, landing the 2014 December Gold Cup round here (albeit off 133), before winnimg at the track again, and on his next visit, on ground which was surely too testing for him, he just went down to Wishfull Thinking, who's obviously no mug. He then had his 4th visit to the track, at The Festival, going down narrowly to Taquin De Seuil, and Uxizandre in The JLT. He finished the season off with a fine effort in The Topham, finishing 5th off 152.

After a stop start (polite way of saying very poor) season in 14/15, possibly being tried too high, and mainly running over distances beyond his optimum, they've managed to get him down to 150, below his Topham run, and just 2lb above his second to Wishfull Thinking.

It's obviously a concern that this might not be the target, certainly not seen him mentioned for it, and he's only priced up with SJames. There's also the possibility he's coming off an injury (he was scratched from The National on The Tuesday before the race, rather than just taken out at the 48 hour stage), but at the prices quoted, and the 33's being offered by SJames, I've taken a chance.
By:
harchibald
When: 18 Oct 15 13:30
great news ...
By:
Meat Loaf
When: 18 Oct 15 17:27
Fabulous......

Double Ross ran well in Charlie Hall first time out last season on ground that was too fast for him.

I can see him running a massive race if he lines up. Twiston will have him ready.
By:
harchibald
When: 18 Oct 15 18:10
Twister will have him ready yes I'd be sure of that ... course and distance form but he's 9 years old and hasn't won since Jan 2014 off when he went in off 10lbs lower. Stats say horses of that age and upwards hard to get ready first time out but if anyone can NTD can that's for sure ... be very interesting if he runs. Their Little Jon ran a stinker at Stratford this weekend didn't he ? Retrospectively a 'warm up' so they're saying in the write up ... and I remember distinctly when Exotic Dancer ran a stinker at Carlisle behind Turpin Green and then hosed up in this in 2006 so early doors season pipe openers can be forgiven ... he was 6YO then
By:
harchibald
When: 18 Oct 15 20:20
So a few more quid for Monetary and Kings Palace after Pipey's Stable Tour. He's his usual cryptic self regards the entries these two will have and his comments on the latter have been well documented already on this thread. One thing he did mention though was a French mare who finished second to Theinval (I backed him that day) at Kempton. La Vaticane. A Paddy Power entry for her is a possibility. Off 134 though she could be amazingly well handicapped or just not good enough. Intriguing though and this mare is highly thought of and regarded in his comments - he labelled her his dark horse and one we shall be hearing more from/of this season ... mmm.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 19 Oct 15 10:02
KINGS PALACE is likely to have a campaign geared around just a few races with trainer David Pipe still believing his disappointing RSA Chase runner has "a lot of untapped potential."

For the second year in a row Kings Palace weakened in the closing stages of a contest at the Cheltenham Festival, managing a distant sixth in the RSA Chase in March having fallen late on when his race was over in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle at the meeting the season before.

However, Pipe feels circumstances and bad luck played their part in Kings Palace's run last season and the seven-year-old is also likely to be given a lighter campaign this time around.

Speaking in his exclusive Racing Post Stable Tour, Pipe said: "We really fancied him for the RSA but he didn't jump as well as he can; it's possible he didn't enjoy being taken on for the lead by The Young Master, but I'm inclined to put it down to another reason. In his previous run at Newbury he did the splits when blundering three out and he probably left his season behind with that mistake.

"I wanted to run him again after Cheltenham, but when we went to school him we found his jumping had gone downhill and his confidence was shot to pieces.

"He's looking good at present, fitness-wise he's well forward and a lot of work is going into getting him back to where he was. The next stage is to school him again to see if he's got his confidence back."

Targets

The Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham next month, for which he is the 10-1 favourite, and the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury, for which he is 16-1, are possible options for Kings Palace, according to Pipe.

"We'll enter him for the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Hennessy and I'm still a great believer in the horse; there's a lot of untapped potential in there," he said. "But being a light-framed individual, who never carries much condition, maybe we shouldn't run him too often."
By:
unclepuncle
When: 19 Oct 15 10:50
^ Well given that write up I'd say he is still far from certain to go for the Paddy Power.Shocked

He might school badly which would scupper it. Also with several of the big guns going for the Hennessy he would have less weight and it might be a more suitable race for him?
By:
roobuck
When: 19 Oct 15 11:08
No doubt some will still put more on thinking he should be 5/1 Grin

And he doesn't stay 3M but he's going to get Hennessy entry? Amusing
By:
Fabulous
When: 19 Oct 15 11:40
Cheers Loaf, hopefully he can start off this season with a decent run as well.

Yeah Harchi, 9 not ideal, and Little Jon wasn't great, but I live in hope.

Be great to see him go here, and get a run, but wouldn't be biggest shock either, if he doesn't even get an entry.
By:
harchibald
When: 19 Oct 15 11:41
Ok so "doesn't stay 3m" AT GRADE 1 LEVEL was what he said. Hennessey is a handicap ?

Re the Paddy Power - so the owner's son might be porting everyone away on Twitter ... Or not. You pays your money ...

Great Endeavour ran in both, albeit off lower marks ...

Nothing is certain. That's why he's still double digits, sure. This is a betting forum, and yes there's (intuitive) guesswork going on here of course ...
By:
harchibald
When: 19 Oct 15 11:42
Putting
By:
tim6
When: 19 Oct 15 12:27
harchibald must credit you for your input fair dues always a constructive input well done
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 19 Oct 15 13:02
With so much time until the race, I suppose there is always the chance a horse might not run. Especially this early in the season, and I think that is reflected in his price. Double figure odds seem more than fair.

I didnt take the quotes as a negative particularly... it sounds like its still his preferred first target and if the horse is right he will run in it. Think thats all you could expect at this stage tbh.
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